Fund Management Group EMERGING MARKET SPECIALISTS China, India, Middle East, Africa, Russia Suitable for SIPP, SASS and Offshore Bond Investments October 2009 - Upwards Momentum continues! January 2009 Forecast for real GDP growth 2008 and 2009 (%) “ The Right Time To Invest – The Right Funds” Sources FMG, FT, Thomson Datastream, RBS, Goldman Sachs, Consensus Economics
Upward momentum continues
The Global Emerging Markets Index is now up 89% from October’s low point (908 v 480)
Massive infrastructure spending is evident in new production of steel, cement, concrete and other building materials, particularly in China. China spent more cash from reserves in May than in the whole of 2008.
Bell-weather commodity prices like copper have been steadily increasing. It is now around $5,890 per tonne, up 108% from its low of $2,825 in December (in May 2008 it had reached a record price of $8,940 per tonne).
Oil prices more than doubled from their low point of $30 per barrel to over $66 (but still less than half last year’s peak of $146)
Fund Management companies are investing in Emerging Markets – with much more to come.
About FMG: Fund Management Group
A Specialist in Emerging Markets Funds Management with Local Fund Management in all regions and countries we invest in.
A Long track record in the emerging markets (20 years from 1989). We analyze about 100-150 managers per year. Currently, we are invested with 54 managers.
Significant amount of resources are spent on manager selection and tracking existing investments .
Focus on niche fund, specialist ’local knowledge’ managers.
Investment decisions are made by an Investment Committee of three, Arild Johansen, Johan Kahm and Jeff Shen, which has a combined 50 years of investment expertise .
Offices in USA, Dubai, London, Stockholm and Oslo.
FMG Funds 3
Early in the Game
First invested in Russia in 1995
Launched Rising 3 Fund (a Russia, India, China Fund of Funds) in November 2003
Launched the worlds first Middle East North Africa Fund of Funds in April 2006
Launched one of the very first Africa Fund of Funds that puts heavy
emphasis Sub-Sahara in April 2007
Emerging Markets (China, India & the Middle East) Property fund launched July 2009,
investing in listed property companies in these regions.
FMG has identified talented managers in each country in which it invests.
The Funds invest through a mix of managers who are technical experts in
blue-chip, medium size or small company equity investment or use a
number of hedging strategies and who aim to achieve superior risk-
adjusted returns over the long run.
We spend substantial amount of time traveling to the countries we invest in
and meeting experienced local fund managers.
Superior Return over time with higher volatility than UK.
Growth prospects in Russia, India and China remain very attractive
Compounded Annual Return 28% since inception, November 2003,
prior to markets collapsing in October.
We also have separate India, China and Russia Funds, for exposure
to single countries
GDP Growth of 8% in China and India: significantly higher than UK
or other Developed World Economies which will all be in recession
in 2009 and have precious little growth in 2010
Indices have recovered a bit, but still have a long way to go to
reach last year’s peaks.
Jim O’Neill, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, June 2009 and
Vikram Pandit, CEO of Citigroup expect Russia, India and China to
grow strongly this year, significantly out-performing western
markets. So do we.
FMG Rising 3 Fund 4
What makes Russia so attractive
The Russian stockmarket has rebounded in the last four months, with shares up 28%. The rouble has stabilised and the country still holds reserves of $400 billion, the third highest in the world.
Most importantly - and this is what is driving optimism - oil prices have recovered from a
low of $35 to just $66, comfortably above the $41 level Russia has budgeted for. The
economy as a whole is still expected to contract this year, but the markets are looking ahead.
China has signed 20 year agreements for oil with Gazprom and Rosneft, two of Russia’s
largest companies, which ensures that these pipeline projects will be built quickly.
Commodity prices are gradually recovering, as China rebuilds its inventories and Russia is benefitting from renewed export trade.
While there have been signs of division between President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin, the recovery in the economy reduced Putin’s popularity only marginally, to 71%. The economically liberal finance minister Alexei Kudron, who has mastered the build up of Russia’s Reserves and orchestrated the gradual rouble devaluation has been proved correct in his policies.
Over the past nine years Putin cut red tape, bring in economic reforms and improve business opportunities for many small private Russian enterprises. Today, Income Tax is a flat 13% and Corporation Tax is at a flat 24%. Railways, and other state business will be partially privatised with IPO’s though these will be delayed until there is renewed appetite for new issues. Russia is also undergoing its biggest ever infrastructure modernisation programme and spending billions of their oil/gas revenues over the next decade. This in turn will see increased domestic demand for concrete, cement and steel for these projects. For example, £6 billion will be spent on infrastructure for the Sochi Winter Olympic games in 2014. So leading steel companies like Evraz and Mechel will benefit along with Rusal, the world’s second largest aluminium producer.
In 2004 only 10% of Russians lived in modern housing. Putin’s goal is to have a third of the 141 million population – that is 47 million – in modern housing by 2010. This program may be hugely optimistic, but some of the house-building will be undertaken, and on other national projects covering public health and education The country is establishing a programme to connect all schools to the internet with high speed access by the end of this year.
Mobile phones sales are booming too; Mobile Telesystems (MTS), VimpelCom and Russia’s Southern Telecom should benefit. . The Russian literacy rate is 99.6%: about the best in the world, and most of those born since Yeltsin (1992) speak English. Russia is the world’s 5th biggest exporter of cereals. Russia’s grain exports last season were worth £1.25bn, and this is set to double in the next five years to at least 25m tonnes from last season’s 13m tonnes. Investment opportunities are clear in agricultural machinery and fertiliser. Overall, Russian stocks are now cheap on fundamentals.
Russia then and now 10 years after October 1998 .
1998 (Oct) 2008 (Oct) 1998 2008 1998 2008
GDP per Capita US$ 1,832 $ 12,220 Exports $74bn $500bn Public Debt % of GDP 42% 5%
Foreign Reserves US$ 12.7bn $530.6bn Imports $58bn $300bn Tax collection % of GDP 8% 22%
What makes India so attractive
Manhomohan Singh is once more Prime Minister! Congress party swept to a near outright victory in the central elections winning 261 seats out of the 543 seats at stake. The Congress Party government has presided over an economic boom and will continue with the course of cautious liberalisation and globalisation followed by its predecessors. For India, it gives political stability to govern unfettered for the entire mandated term (5 years). For investors, it reduces political risk and adds clarity and optimism that badly needed reforms, which had previously been stalled by communist minorities, will finally be pushed through. This will help the economy to resume its upward path to match, and even perhaps exceed, the 9% p.a. and higher growth rate achieved in the previous 3 fiscal years. Foreign Institutional Investors (FII), who greatly influence Indian bourses, are sitting on large amounts of cash that they want to invest in economies showing early signs of already being through the worst of the global downturn and in which a recovery, albeit initially weak, is underway. The incoming government will have to decide whether and how to increase its $180bn infrastructure programme and how to implement it. The Indian government has identified the need for $500bn (€385bn, £357bn) in infrastructure spending between 2007 and 2012. Decades of underinvestment in roads, ports, airports and power has left the country crippled by a severe infrastructure deficit. Roads in the main cities are frequently clogged with heavy traffic and 90 per cent of India's roads are structurally unsuitable for loaded trucks. Ports are running close to capacity. Financial constraints threaten to block a transformation to a more modern economy. It will take the new Government months to decide on what to do, and months to implement an action programme, but the market will anticipate action once policies are announced. The government should now be able to sell further stakes in the state-controlled National Aluminium company and the mobile phone company BSNL, amongst others. Foreign ownership restrictions should be reduced a bit too, particularly in telecommunications and retail. We also expect some short-term fiscal support to industry and longer-term reduction in the deficit.
The oil price increase from $30 to $66 will be a short-term threat as India imports most of its oil. ONGC, which is India’s largest company by market capitalisation, accounts for 80% of the country’s oil production. It plans to invest 600 bn Rupees (£6.8bn) to raise production to 19.2m Barrels from the 7.3m barrels produced now, by 2012. By 2012 India will need 22.6m barrels of oil. Last year it subsidised oil domestically to the tune of $50 billion. The subsidy will be less this year, as the oil price dropped from $146, and will continue to fall as India produces more of its own oil.
Strong domestic consumption driven by the expanding middle class (200 million and growing).
The Indian economy has grown from £16bn at the start of the 1980s to more than £500bn today and it is expected to double within the next seven years.
Looking ahead ten years or more, the demographics of a thriving young population of educated workers will make India relatively more attractive than other emerging markets. While India produces little in the way of commodities and has lagged China in attracting foreign investment, its companies embrace a variety of sectors, from IT, pharmaceuticals and general manufacturing to banks and property. Many of these companies are primarily engaged in selling to the large domestic market, where rising spending has enabled reinvestment - a virtuous circle.
Market upside potential could be multiple times from here as happened from 1998 to 2003 (+75%) and 2003 to 2007 (+313%)
What makes China so attractive
Premier Wen Jiabao maintains that Chinese GDP “will definitely grow by 8% this year”,
despite China’s tumbling exports. The slack is being taken up through sales incentives to
the domestic Chinese, who have one of the highest savings ratios in the world, at 40% of income. Each month the Chinese authorities reduce tax on household goods, so flatscreen TVs for one month, microwaves the next and so on, so that factories can sell their stock and keep producing. Clearly there is always a debate over the accuracy of the official Chinese GDP figures. However , the Government’s infrastructure spending is visibly taking shape, with large orders being placed for roading and rail networks. Over the longer term, the growth story is largely intact.
China is today better positioned to weather the financial crisis than any other country in the world and will emerge stronger from the turmoil for the following reasons:
China is not leveraged: its public debt is only 16% of GDP compared to about 60% in the U.S and close to 100% in most European countries, and nearly 200% in Japan, although Chinese banks have minor exposure to US Sub-prime problems.
By 2015, we project that China will be the largest trading country in the world. It will have greater inward and outward trade flows than the USA; larger even than the combined members of the European Union. It is already the world’s second largest economy,
having overtaken the UK in 2006 and both Japan and Germany this year, albeit slightly behind the USA. For this reason alone, investors should have some exposure to its economy. Yet there are many other significant reasons for investing.
China has already signed 20 year contracts for oil and raw materials at March 2009 prices. It has bought into an array of suppliers.
China has £1350 billion in foreign exchange reserves and still increasing by £40 billion per month, enough firepower to stimulate the economy. 70% of it is in UD dollars, £200 billion in US bonds. China is the world’s third largest manufacturing exporter, with around £300 billion of exports per year. Principal exports are office equipment, telecoms, textiles and clothing, and electrical machinery. (It lags behind the UK in 6 th place if we include invisible exports such as financial services). A total of Rmb4trn (US$588bn) package for 2009 and 2010 was announced by the central government for spending. which is 7% of GDP. This package alone will likely boost China’s GDP by 2% over the next 2 years, with a further “stimulus” if needed.
The major areas are:-
1. Public housing: cheap rent housing, housing renovation in both rural and urban areas;
2. Rural infrastructure such as water irrigation, roads, power grids, water channels and new reservoirs;
3. Large infrastructure: railway, road, expressways, power grid;
4. Medical and education facilities;
5. Environmental protection: waste water and garbage treatment, forestry, and large pollution control projects;
6. Fiscal incentives for R&D and economic restructuring;
7. Earthquake reconstruction;
8. Raising urban and rural disposable income, farm subsidies and pensions.
The Markets are oversold. Over its 17 year history the A-share market has averaged 30 X earnings, and had a low of 15X. Having fallen 23% from this year’s peak, the A-share market is trading at 15 X 2010 earnings.
FMG’s Russia, India and China Sector allocations 8 China India Russia Rising 3 Country Split
Projected US$ GDP by 2050 Projected GDP Per Capita by 2050
Source: Goldman Sachs Economic Research, December 2006 Real Exchange Rate Appreciation (%) by 2050 9 We project substantial investment returns from Russia, India and China over the next 10 years There are separate FMG funds for India, China and Russia, as well as the combined Rising 3 Fund, which offer specific single country exposure. The details of these are all on our website: www.fmgfunds.com Malta Funds
FMG Middle East North Africa MENA Fund 10
FMG MENA Fund
The Fund gives exposure to 15 countries with little foreign ownership. Tracker funds will have to buy-in in a few years. UAE, Qatar and Kuwait are under review to be included over the next few years so the MENA region as a whole could account for 20% of MSCI Emerging Markets index.
Earnings growth will be high on an annual basis providing the MENA governments oil stays above $50 per barrel.
MENA valuations are at historical lows and relatively cheap 12x’s 2009 earnings.
The Fund is currently invested with 7 managers.
More Diversification vs. BRIC countries and low correlation
$2 trillion worth of projects announced by the GCC governments (to be scaled back a bit, or delayed, but significant infrastructure will go ahead)
Most 2009 budgets assume $50pb oil price (now over $65 per barrel)
Saudi $543 billion development plan will go ahead as planned
Abu Dhabi $270bn of investments in next 5 years mostly to much needed transport infrastructure ($100bn) and housing
Qatar liquified supplies vast quantities of Liquified Natural Gas
Libya, Algeria, Syria and Kurdistan further market openings and oil revenue distribution
FMG MENA Fund
The Fund is well diversified with exposure to around 15 MENA markets
Financials, Industrials and Construction & Real Estate account for 43% of the Fund’s sector exposure
What makes the Middle East and North African (MENA) Region so Attractive
Over £1 trillion has been announced in infrastructure and real estate projects in the GCC, which translates into the largest construction boom in the world. All the projects announced by China, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil and Mexico, combined have a total value of £375 billion, well below that of the GCC. By the end of the decade the total value of GCC projects is expected to reach £1.5 trillion (£1,500 million). The value of proven oil reserves under the ground of the Arabian Gulf at current prices is around £25 trillion… the equivalent of all global public equity markets. There will be plenty of money to sustain investment in the region for well over a decade.
There are exceptional, long-term investment opportunities which range from oil services, through construction to retail and tourism: Saudi Arabia alone is planning to build 5 new cities. Dubai’s current 1.5 million population is projected to jump by 2020. Over the next twenty years Saudi Arabia, which has a quarter of the worlds proven petroleum reserves, plans to spend £300 billion on domestic infrastructure. Kuwait, Oman and United Arab Emirates are aggressively developing programs to generate economic growth which has been lacking in the past two decades, in order to reduce dependence of oil. Qatar, which has huge projects in oil, gas and petrochemicals too, has £121bn worth of projects in the non-hydrocarbon sector planned to be built over the next six years. Egypt has pushed through custom reforms, proposed income and corporate tax reforms, reduced energy subsidies, and privatized several enterprises and is now rated by the IMF as one of the top countries in the world undertaking economic reforms.
The scale of the infrastructure boom should not be underestimated. The regions real GDP is expected to grow by around 6% for the foreseeable future. All this government action/spending leads to strong corporate earnings which are likely to continue to grow at double-digit figures.
Most MENA region countries are now in the World Trade Organisation. They are redrafting laws and bringing corporate accountancy
into line with world standards, which allows for more detail and transparency for investment decision-making.
Up to now there has been very limited access for foreign investors, but this is changing and foreign investors are likely to
buy-in, increasing share valuations, which are currently quite reasonable. Most of the Mena region is not currently included in MSCI
Emerging market index, but Kuwait, Qatar and United Arab Emirates are under review and expected to be included in 2010/12 and
potentially the MENA region could make up 20% of the index, attracting funds which have to buy-in to the region, and thereby
pushing up valuations.
There is a vivid current IPO calendar with more appealing terms to come, making it more attractive to invest in future IPOs.
The privatization pipeline in the MENA region is expected to reach £500 billion within the next decade.
We believe that the Qatari economy will expand by 6 and 7% (Quatar Government estimate)
this year. The Qatari economy is underpinned by the hydrocarbons (Liquified Natural Gas) sector,
and is massively building its infrastructure for a time when this emphasis on energy will diminish as
reserves dwindle. Qatar estimated to have supplies to meet present demand for up to 100 years.
FMG Africa Fund 13
FMG Africa Fund, launched in April 2007, currently with 6 managers
The Fund invests in all of Continental Africa with an aim of investing in Sub-Sahara and North Africa and to a lesser extent the Republic of South Africa.
The Universe consists of 54 countries with only 25 operating stock exchange.
Under–followed and under-invested by the Western World, but with increasing investment interest
GDP growth is expected to sustain 5-7% p.a.
Mobile Phone infrastructure and sales growing by 30% pa – still!
Long term sustainable growth
GDP Growth rates for 2009 (%) source Economist
FMG Africa Fund FMG (EU) Africa Fund country and sector allocation Country Allocation Sector Allocation 14
What makes Africa so attractive
The Continent consists of 54 countries with only 25 that operate a stock exchange. There are abundant resources, which will
ensure sustainable long-term growth. In many countries the legal systems and languages are European, with English as the preferred
international language of commerce. Labour is relatively cheap and abundant and also young: 50% of the population is less than 18 years
Commodities Africa's share of the world's major resources reserves is estimated as follows: 90% diamonds, 50% gold,
8% petroleum, 12% natural gas, 40% platinum, 25% bauxite, 30% uranium, 20% copper, 90% phosphorites, and substantial reserves of
iron ore, manganese, chromium, cobalt, and titanium.
Algeria, Egypt, Libya, and Nigeria are the major petroleum and natural gas producing countries in Africa. Botswana, DR Congo,
and South Africa together produce 50% of the world's diamonds. Ghana, South Africa, and Zimbabwe together produce nearly 50% of the
China Imports China’s imports of oil and other commodities from developing Africa have grown at an average annual rate
of 35% over the past five years; total trade between them grew from £1.5bn in 1995 to £28bn in 2006 and has kept growing, with a
significant fallback in 2008/9. China recently signed a £2.5bn concessionary loan agreement with Congo that grants access to DRC’s
vast but untapped copper, cobalt, timber and agriculture resources in exchange for a commitment by Beijing to provide 3,200km of
railways, 3,400km of highways, 31 hospitals, 145 health clinics, two universities and 5,000 government housing units. This kind of trade
agreement, which is typical of China’s expanding trade links in other African countries (a similar £500 million agreement is planned for
Zambia), opens up excellent long-term investment opportunities in construction companies, logistics and telecommunications firms and
alongside those which mine raw materials, or provide mining equipment and services. As a result of commodity-led exports, country debt has
fallen from 40% to 20%.
The current market prices and lack of overall depth are strikingly reminiscent of 1998, when there was a major recession. For those investors who risked exposure then, African equities were amongst the best performing asset classes with US$ returns in excess of 600% over the following decade. We believe that a similar dynamic (cycle) is underway, and new investors are beginning to enter the market.
Quantitative easing and the monetisation of government deficits in the Western World were the same tools that were used to pull the global economy out of depression in the 1930s. A crucial element of the 1930s recovery was the strong gain in commodity prices. Commodities rose more than 80% in UD$ terms from 1933 to 1939. As a result , large commodity producers benefited handsomely – we expect a similar result this time round.
Communications Mobile phone sales and mobile phone infrastructure continues to grow at an average of 30%pa.
GDP growth overall is expected to remain between 5 and 7% p.a. for the foreseeable future.
Africa represents the last emerging continent in the world and should be part of long term investors portfolios.
FMG Combo Fund
FMG (EU) Combo enables investors to get a broadly diversified portfolio in terms
of sector and country allocation with 75 managers
The portfolio is a mix of more conservative global oriented managers to higher
risk emerging managers coupled with the most promising sectors in the Western
world and biotech/healthcare
The Combo Fund has a Global Hedge
of 36% invested in Blue Chip Developed
World long-short Equities.
The Combo Fund provides a low-cost
way of gaining exposure to all the FMG
Emerging Markets Funds (compared
with investing in each fund separately)
16 Growth of $1000
Strong performance (Except 2008) Middle East & North Africa Fund China Fund Rising 3 Fund Note : In some cases, the results shown correspond to Pro-Forma figures, based on returns for the Fund’s managers net of relevant fees. Please refer to each fund monthly fact sheet for more information about performance and charges. Russia Fund India Fund Combo Fund 17
Strong performance (Except 2008) Russian Federation (Single Manager) Fund India Opportunity Fund Special Opportunity Fund Africa Fund Quoted Real Estate Companies: India China, Middle East Global Hedge Fund 18
Bonds and Self-Invested Personal Pensions (SIPPs)
FMG’s Rising 3 and MENA and Combo funds have been accepted for investment in Offshore Bonds and Self-Invested Personal Pensions (SIPPs) by the following companies:
Offshore Bonds SIPPs/SASSs
19 Axa Standard Life AegonScottish Equitable Skandia Aegon Scottish Equitable Scottish Life Friends Provident Canada Life Alliance Trust Generali Scottish Widows James Hay European Pensions Management Irish Life Zurich Hansard international Clerical Medical Legal & General Platforms Transact Ascentric Nucleus
FMG Funds Currently available for investment:
A shares (A09 for precision) are most appropriate for Retail investors and investing £5000 to £50,000.
shares (B09 for precision) are most appropriate for Institutions and larger investors investing over £50,000.
All the shares are available for investment in £ sterling, Euros or US $ except China (Euros only), India (Euros only) and Russian Federation (single
Manager) . The Global Hedge Fund is only available in B shares (more than £50,000)
Rising 3 (Russia, India, China)
China (Euros only)
India (Euros only)
MENA (Middle East and North Africa)
Combo (combination of all FMG Funds)
Russian Federation (Single Manager) one class of shares in Euros and US$ (Bermuda-based) called E Shares
Special Opportunities (Bermuda-based)
Global Hedge B Shares only
Emerging Market Real Estate liquid quoted companies Fund (India, China, Middle East)
Investment Application forms can be printed from our website www.fmgfunds.com Go onto the Malta side
and enter the username ‘fmgrep’ and password ‘fmgltd’ . You can then scroll through the funds, select A or B
shares and select which currency you want to invest . All the instructions for faxing the forms and
transferring payment are on these forms.
Currencies are hedged so that the performance is the same month on month for each fund in each currency.
Minimum investment is £6,300 sterling, 7,200 Euros or US$10,000 (effectively US$10,000 or equivalent)
Applications for investment must be received at least a week before the end of each month, for purchase at
Net Asset Value at the 1 st of each month. Transfers from one fund to another are free of commission charges.
FMG Funds are all audited by KPMG
For Further Information There are more detailed presentations on each fund, for Institutional B shares, (for more than £50,000) and Retail A shares (for less than £50,000), for each available currency, together with application forms for investment, on our website : www.fmgfunds.com click on ‘ Malta Funds ’. For investment application forms (once you have signed our Intermediary Agreement) click on ‘ for FMG REPs Only ’ And enter username ‘ fmgrep ’ and password ‘ fmgltd ’ FMG Eurasia Ltd Francis Salvesen Charlie Cantlie BSC (Econ) MBA MSI Director Investment Executive Tel: 0207 589 2135 Mob: 07951575364 Tel: 0207 581 3149 Fax: 0207 584 5484 Fax: 0207 584 5484 e-mail: email@example.com [email_address] This document has been approved by FMG Eurasia Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. FMG Eurasia Ltd, Trafalgar House, 11 Waterloo Place, London SW1Y 4AU Disclaimer : This summary is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy. Citizens or residents of the United States may not invest in these Funds. Opinions and estimates constitute the manager’s judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments in emerging markets should be considered high risk where a portion or total loss of capital is conceivable. No assurance can be given that the investment objective will be achieved or that an investor will receive a return of all or part of his/her initial capital, and investment results can fluctuate substantially over any given time period. Please refer to the Funds’ prospectuses which contains brief descriptions of certain risks associated with investing in the funds. Questions should be directed to your local representative or financial advisor. This document may not be reproduced, distributed, or published for any purpose without the prior written consent of the manager. 21