Shadow election i hub nairobi 10 january 2012Presentation Transcript
Shadow Electionﬁnding the best candidates and solutions Richard von Kaufmann // iHub Nairobi presentation 10.01.2012
Who is Richard von Kaufmann? Best Early-Stage Startup Barcelona 4 July 2008 co-founded 2007 Only Nordic startup selectedFilmmaker, 1995-2001 Intention Broadcasting presenter Graz, Austria September 2009 Creative Director Cactus Marketing & Advertising Media Lab Helsinki, 2006 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia joined 2010 Election Machine 2001-2003
The wisdom of crowdsSlides in this section courtesy of Zipipop, the Finnish social media agency
The Wisdom of Crowds http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
The Wisdom of CrowdsFrancis Galton, 1906Butchered weight:Average of crowd guess: 1,197 poundsActual weight: 1,198
Jelly Bean JarAverage of 56 students=871Actual amount=850Only one student guessed better http://www.amazon.com/Never-Pat-Bear-About-Signs/dp/B0006XX08K
Wisdom of the crowds at work
Hive Mind image from bizzybusybees.co.uk
Crowd-wisdom on the Web420m unique monthly visitors 60% of web-servers run Linux 40 million monthly visitors20 million articles300 languages
How Google uses crowd-wisdom link = vote
Four conditions of a smart crowd:• Diversity of opinion• Independence• Decentralization• Aggregation*Conditions outlined in The Wisdom of the Crowds by James Surowiecki
Diversity of Opinion• private information
Independence• not influenced by others
Decentralization• specialist, local knowledge
Aggregate • mechanism for turning private judgements into collective decisions
Scale it up• more input produces better results
information + errorcrowd error probability averaged = ~0(i.e -10+50-60+20=0)“information” with reduced error
The power of intuition are New ﬁndings in cognitive science ) showing that intuition (gut feeling ensed can be thought of as “cond any experience” and in m ve circumstance s can be more effecti y. than in depth analytical stud
Rating parameters (intuition) User’s comparison to the wisdom of the crowd
Shadow Electionﬁnding the best candidates and solutions
Current social media limitations How to make the message of the “crowd” understandable?
Our solution• Propose questions• Give answers• Rate other people’s answers• See the people with the best-rated solutions move up the “live” chart• Show support by indicating your vote for one of the candidates
Initial trialShadow Election was first trialled as Vaali.fiin the 2011 Finnish Parliamentary Elections.
Advocacy toolOrganizations can use it as an advocacytool by requesting that politicians answertheir specific questions.
The essence of the Shadow Election tool is to use intuition and crowdwisdom to promote the best candidates and ﬁnd the best solutions.
Why’s it so important?
The human beans is making rules to suitthemselves, the BFG went on. But the rulesthey is making do not suit the little piggy-wiggies. Am I right or left?Right, Sophie said.Giants is also making rules. Their rules is notsuiting the human beans. Everybody is makinghis own rules to suit himself.”
Amnesty’s main weaponswhen it started in 1961 waswriting letters and newspaper articles.
Transparency InternationalFinland is consistently in the top5 least corrupt countries
There is a strongcorrelation between GDPper capita andTransparencyInternational’s CorruptionPerception Index (CPI).Despite relatively lownatural resources Finlandhas a high GDP per capita. Gapminder.org