Shadow election i hub nairobi 10 january 2012

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  • 1. Shadow Electionfinding the best candidates and solutions Richard von Kaufmann // iHub Nairobi presentation 10.01.2012
  • 2. Who is Richard von Kaufmann? Best Early-Stage Startup Barcelona 4 July 2008 co-founded 2007 Only Nordic startup selectedFilmmaker, 1995-2001 Intention Broadcasting presenter Graz, Austria September 2009 Creative Director Cactus Marketing & Advertising Media Lab Helsinki, 2006 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia joined 2010 Election Machine 2001-2003
  • 3. “Traditional” Candidate Matcher
  • 4. Shadow Election
  • 5. The wisdom of crowdsSlides in this section courtesy of Zipipop, the Finnish social media agency
  • 6. The Wisdom of Crowds http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
  • 7. The Wisdom of CrowdsFrancis Galton, 1906Butchered weight:Average of crowd guess: 1,197 poundsActual weight: 1,198
  • 8. Jelly Bean JarAverage of 56 students=871Actual amount=850Only one student guessed better http://www.amazon.com/Never-Pat-Bear-About-Signs/dp/B0006XX08K
  • 9. Wisdom of the crowds at work
  • 10. Hive Mind image from bizzybusybees.co.uk
  • 11. Crowd-wisdom on the Web420m unique monthly visitors 60% of web-servers run Linux 40 million monthly visitors20 million articles300 languages
  • 12. How Google uses crowd-wisdom link = vote
  • 13. Four conditions of a smart crowd:• Diversity of opinion• Independence• Decentralization• Aggregation*Conditions outlined in The Wisdom of the Crowds by James Surowiecki
  • 14. Diversity of Opinion• private information
  • 15. Independence• not influenced by others
  • 16. Decentralization• specialist, local knowledge
  • 17. Aggregate • mechanism for turning private judgements into collective decisions
  • 18. Scale it up• more input produces better results
  • 19. information + errorcrowd error probability averaged = ~0(i.e -10+50-60+20=0)“information” with reduced error
  • 20. Crowdsourcing Solutions
  • 21. The power of intuition are New findings in cognitive science ) showing that intuition (gut feeling ensed can be thought of as “cond any experience” and in m ve circumstance s can be more effecti y. than in depth analytical stud
  • 22. Rating parameters (intuition) User’s comparison to the wisdom of the crowd
  • 23. Shadow Electionfinding the best candidates and solutions
  • 24. salesforce.com, 2011
  • 25. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Democracia_real_YA_Madrid.jpg
  • 26. Sustained peace
  • 27. Current social media limitations How to make the message of the “crowd” understandable?
  • 28. Our solution• Propose questions• Give answers• Rate other people’s answers• See the people with the best-rated solutions move up the “live” chart• Show support by indicating your vote for one of the candidates
  • 29. Initial trialShadow Election was first trialled as Vaali.fiin the 2011 Finnish Parliamentary Elections.
  • 30. Media content
  • 31. Advocacy toolOrganizations can use it as an advocacytool by requesting that politicians answertheir specific questions.
  • 32. The essence of the Shadow Election tool is to use intuition and crowdwisdom to promote the best candidates and find the best solutions.
  • 33. Why’s it so important?
  • 34. The human beans is making rules to suitthemselves, the BFG went on. But the rulesthey is making do not suit the little piggy-wiggies. Am I right or left?Right, Sophie said.Giants is also making rules. Their rules is notsuiting the human beans. Everybody is makinghis own rules to suit himself.”
  • 35. Amnesty’s main weaponswhen it started in 1961 waswriting letters and newspaper articles.
  • 36. Transparency InternationalFinland is consistently in the top5 least corrupt countries
  • 37. There is a strongcorrelation between GDPper capita andTransparencyInternational’s CorruptionPerception Index (CPI).Despite relatively lownatural resources Finlandhas a high GDP per capita. Gapminder.org
  • 38. http://blog.transparency.org/2011/12/07/what-makes-new-zealand-denmark-finland-sweden-and-others-%E2%80%9Ccleaner%E2%80%9D-than-most-countries/
  • 39. Good laws are not enough“The capacity to facilitate commercial transactionsthrough a system of laws fairly enforced is critical tothe development of the private sector.”
  • 40. Engaging politicians in more open discussions=Better solution finding and more accountability=Fairer laws, and the fairer enforcement of thelaw, so that everyone benefits
  • 41. Thanks! Richard von Kaufmann Creative Director // Chairman Tel. 045 11 222 73 Email: richard@realitycreatingmedia.com www.realitycreatingmedia.com