Shadow election i hub nairobi 10 january 2012

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Shadow election i hub nairobi 10 january 2012

  1. 1. Shadow Electionfinding the best candidates and solutions Richard von Kaufmann // iHub Nairobi presentation 10.01.2012
  2. 2. Who is Richard von Kaufmann? Best Early-Stage Startup Barcelona 4 July 2008 co-founded 2007 Only Nordic startup selectedFilmmaker, 1995-2001 Intention Broadcasting presenter Graz, Austria September 2009 Creative Director Cactus Marketing & Advertising Media Lab Helsinki, 2006 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia joined 2010 Election Machine 2001-2003
  3. 3. “Traditional” Candidate Matcher
  4. 4. Shadow Election
  5. 5. The wisdom of crowdsSlides in this section courtesy of Zipipop, the Finnish social media agency
  6. 6. The Wisdom of Crowds http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
  7. 7. The Wisdom of CrowdsFrancis Galton, 1906Butchered weight:Average of crowd guess: 1,197 poundsActual weight: 1,198
  8. 8. Jelly Bean JarAverage of 56 students=871Actual amount=850Only one student guessed better http://www.amazon.com/Never-Pat-Bear-About-Signs/dp/B0006XX08K
  9. 9. Wisdom of the crowds at work
  10. 10. Hive Mind image from bizzybusybees.co.uk
  11. 11. Crowd-wisdom on the Web420m unique monthly visitors 60% of web-servers run Linux 40 million monthly visitors20 million articles300 languages
  12. 12. How Google uses crowd-wisdom link = vote
  13. 13. Four conditions of a smart crowd:• Diversity of opinion• Independence• Decentralization• Aggregation*Conditions outlined in The Wisdom of the Crowds by James Surowiecki
  14. 14. Diversity of Opinion• private information
  15. 15. Independence• not influenced by others
  16. 16. Decentralization• specialist, local knowledge
  17. 17. Aggregate • mechanism for turning private judgements into collective decisions
  18. 18. Scale it up• more input produces better results
  19. 19. information + errorcrowd error probability averaged = ~0(i.e -10+50-60+20=0)“information” with reduced error
  20. 20. Crowdsourcing Solutions
  21. 21. The power of intuition are New findings in cognitive science ) showing that intuition (gut feeling ensed can be thought of as “cond any experience” and in m ve circumstance s can be more effecti y. than in depth analytical stud
  22. 22. Rating parameters (intuition) User’s comparison to the wisdom of the crowd
  23. 23. Shadow Electionfinding the best candidates and solutions
  24. 24. salesforce.com, 2011
  25. 25. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Democracia_real_YA_Madrid.jpg
  26. 26. Sustained peace
  27. 27. Current social media limitations How to make the message of the “crowd” understandable?
  28. 28. Our solution• Propose questions• Give answers• Rate other people’s answers• See the people with the best-rated solutions move up the “live” chart• Show support by indicating your vote for one of the candidates
  29. 29. Initial trialShadow Election was first trialled as Vaali.fiin the 2011 Finnish Parliamentary Elections.
  30. 30. Media content
  31. 31. Advocacy toolOrganizations can use it as an advocacytool by requesting that politicians answertheir specific questions.
  32. 32. The essence of the Shadow Election tool is to use intuition and crowdwisdom to promote the best candidates and find the best solutions.
  33. 33. Why’s it so important?
  34. 34. The human beans is making rules to suitthemselves, the BFG went on. But the rulesthey is making do not suit the little piggy-wiggies. Am I right or left?Right, Sophie said.Giants is also making rules. Their rules is notsuiting the human beans. Everybody is makinghis own rules to suit himself.”
  35. 35. Amnesty’s main weaponswhen it started in 1961 waswriting letters and newspaper articles.
  36. 36. Transparency InternationalFinland is consistently in the top5 least corrupt countries
  37. 37. There is a strongcorrelation between GDPper capita andTransparencyInternational’s CorruptionPerception Index (CPI).Despite relatively lownatural resources Finlandhas a high GDP per capita. Gapminder.org
  38. 38. http://blog.transparency.org/2011/12/07/what-makes-new-zealand-denmark-finland-sweden-and-others-%E2%80%9Ccleaner%E2%80%9D-than-most-countries/
  39. 39. Good laws are not enough“The capacity to facilitate commercial transactionsthrough a system of laws fairly enforced is critical tothe development of the private sector.”
  40. 40. Engaging politicians in more open discussions=Better solution finding and more accountability=Fairer laws, and the fairer enforcement of thelaw, so that everyone benefits
  41. 41. Thanks! Richard von Kaufmann Creative Director // Chairman Tel. 045 11 222 73 Email: richard@realitycreatingmedia.com www.realitycreatingmedia.com

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