Toronto Condo Network Presentation by Jason Mercer

TREB Market Update Toronto Condo NetworkPresented By: Jason Mercer, TREB Senior Manager of Market Analysis April 15, 2011

Bank of Canada held the line on rates, but hikes are on the way Outlook for the Bank of Canadas Target for the Overnight Lending Rate 7% Bank of Canada Target for the Overnight Rate 6% 3-Month T-Bill 5% 3-Month T-Bill (Forward Rates) 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Source: Bank of Canada, Toronto Real Estate BoardToronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

The five-year fixed mortgage rate will increase as well Outlook for the Average Five-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Still Room for Discounting ING Direct (April 13/11) 4% 3% Five Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 2% Five Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Forecast 1% Five Year Government of Canada Bond Five Year GoC Bond (Forward Rates) 0% Source: Bank of Canada, Toronto Real Estate BoardToronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

The GTA unemployment rate is declining GTA Unemployment Rate 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan-11(F) Jan-12(F) Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-88 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Source: Statistics Canada (Historic); TREB (Forecast)Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

Incomes are rising in the GTA Annual Growth Rate for Average Weekly Earnings 5% 4.7% 4% 4.4% 4.2% 3.6% 3% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2% 2.5% 0.8% 2.1% 1.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1% 0% -1% -1.0% -2% Source: Statistics Canada (Historic); TREB (Forecast)Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

Affordability is a key indicator for the direction of price and sales TREB Affordability Indicator Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest, Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics CanadaToronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

TorontoMLS® sales forecast TorontoMLS® Sales (Annual) 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Source: Toronto Real Estate BoardToronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

TorontoMLS® average selling price forecast Average TorontoMLS® Selling Price $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Source: Toronto Real Estate BoardToronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

First Quarter 2011 Condo Apartment Statistics – All TREB Districts Share of Total Condo Apartment Sales By TREB Area Condo Apartment Price by Bedroom Type (All Districts) $400,000 Average Selling Price $350,000 Median Selling Price $300,000 1389 $250,000 Central TREB Districts $200,000 2423 East TREB Districts $150,000 North TREB Districts $100,000 519 West TREB Districts $50,000 $0 657 Bachelor One Bedroom Two Bedroom Three Total Bedroom Source: TREB Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Share of Total Condo Apartment Sales By Bedroom Type Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range 0-199,999 7% 200K-299,999 300K-399,999 Selling Price Range 400K-499,999 Bachelor 500K-599,999 One Bedroom 600K-699,999 42% 700K-799,999 49% Two Bedroom 800K-899,999 Three Bedroom 900K-999,999 1,000,000+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Number of Sales Source: TREB Source: TREBToronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

Share of condo apartment sales varied by district in the first quarterToronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

Average condo apartment prices varied by district in the first quarter % Over/Under the Average TREB Condo Apartment PriceToronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

Downtown Core – First Quarter Condominium Apartment Summary Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range (Downtown Core) 0-199,999 200K-299,999 300K-399,999 Selling Price Range 400K-499,999 500K-599,999 600K-699,999 Downtown Core 700K-799,999 800K-899,999 900K-999,999 1,000,000+ 0 200 400 600 800 Number of Sales Source: TREB Price By Bedroom Type (Downtown Core) Condo Sales By Bedroom Type (Downtown Core ) $1,200,000 Average Selling Price Bachelor 84 $1,000,000 Median Selling Price One Bedroom 375 $800,000 One Bedroom + 388 $600,000 Two Bedroom 279 $400,000 Two Bedroom + 140 $200,000 Three Bedroom 9 $0 Bach. 1 Bd 1 Bd + 2 Bd 2 Bd + 3 Bd + Total 0 100 200 300 400 500 Source: TREB Source: TREBToronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

North York City Centre – First Quarter Condominium Apartment Summary Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range (North York City Centre) 0-199,999 200K-299,999 300K-399,999 Selling Price Range 400K-499,999 500K-599,999 North York City 600K-699,999 700K-799,999 Centre 800K-899,999 900K-999,999 1,000,000+ 0 100 200 300 Number of Sales Source: TREB Price By Bedroom Type (North York City Centre) Condo Sales By Bedroom Type (North York City Centre) $500,000 Average Selling Price Bachelor 1 $450,000 $400,000 Median Selling Price One Bedroom 111 $350,000 $300,000 One Bedroom + 116 $250,000 $200,000 Two Bedroom 162 $150,000 Two Bedroom + 98 $100,000 $50,000 Three Bedroom 35 $0 Bach. 1 Bd 1 Bd + 2 Bd 2 Bd + 3 Bd + Total 0 50 100 150 200 Source: TREB Source: TREBToronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

Mississauga City Centre – First Quarter Condominium Apartment Summary Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range (Mississauga City Centre) 0-199,999 200K-299,999 300K-399,999 Selling Price Range 400K-499,999 Mississauga 500K-599,999 City Centre 600K-699,999 700K-799,999 800K-899,999 900K-999,999 1,000,000+ 0 100 200 300 Number of Sales Source: TREB Price By Bedroom Type (Mississauga City Centre) Condo Sales By Bedroom Type (Mississauga City Centre) $300,000 Average Selling Price Bachelor 0 $250,000 Median Selling Price One Bedroom 47 $200,000 One Bedroom + 96 $150,000 Two Bedroom 104 $100,000 Two Bedroom + 104 $50,000 Three Bedroom 21 $0 Bach. 1 Bd 1 Bd + 2 Bd 2 Bd + 3 Bd + Total 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Source: TREB Source: TREBToronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

Rental Market Number of Units Listed Increases in Rental Listings and Transactions 3rd Trimester 2010 vs. 3rd Trimester 2009 3,500 • Following the trend for condominium apartment completions in the 2010 2009 last four months of 2010, the number of rental units listed on the 3,000 TorontoMLS® system increased. 2,500 • While the number of rental units listed increased, so too did the 2,000 number of rental transactions, suggesting that there are a growing 1,500 number of households looking to rent condominium apartments. 1,000 • Average rents remained more or less flat compared to 2009. 500 Because demand kept up with supply, we did not see any 0 widespread downward pressure on rents. Downtown Core North York City Centre Mississauga City Centre Source: TREB Number of Units Rented Average One-Bedroom Rents 3rd Trimester 2010 vs. 3rd Trimester 2009 3rd Trimester 2010 vs. 3rd Trimester 2009 2,000 $2,000 2010 2009 2010 2009 $1,600 1,500 $1,200 1,000 $800 500 $400 0 $0 Downtown Core North York City Centre Mississauga City Centre All TREB Downtown Core North York City Mississauga City Centre Centre Source: TREB Source: TREBToronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

Strong condo completions have resulted in a more balanced market Condominium Apartment Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio and Median Price Growth (All Areas) 70% Annual Median Price Change (Right Scale) 25% Annual Median Price Growth 60% Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio (Left Scale) 20% Sales-to-Active Listings ratio 50% 15% 40% 10% 30% 5% 20% 0% 10% -5% 0% -10% Source: Toronto Real Estate BoardToronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

Toronto Condo Network Presentation by Jason Mercer

by Richard Silver on Apr 27, 2011

Accessibility

Categories

Tags

Upload Details

Usage Rights

Statistics

Toronto Condo Network Presentation by Jason Mercer — Presentation Transcript