N. Barry Lyons on the Toronto Condo Market for 2013
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N. Barry Lyons on the Toronto Condo Market for 2013

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Yesterday early morning, there was a meeting of the Toronto Condo Network and we had a great discussion about the Toronto Condo market with Consultant N. Barry Lyons who is an expert in what is ...

Yesterday early morning, there was a meeting of the Toronto Condo Network and we had a great discussion about the Toronto Condo market with Consultant N. Barry Lyons who is an expert in what is happening in the Toronto Condo marketplace.

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N. Barry Lyons on the Toronto Condo Market for 2013 N. Barry Lyons on the Toronto Condo Market for 2013 Document Transcript

  • Industry at a Crossroads? Presentation to the Toronto Condo Network By: N. Barry Lyon and Jasmine Cracknell February 22nd, 2013Toronto Skyline - 2004Future Toronto SkylineFuture Downtown Toronto CoreSource: All pictures from Urban Toronto, courtesy of Scott Dickson N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  • High-Rise Marketplace Yearly New Sales and Resales Greater Toronto Area, 2002 to 2013F 60,000 50,000 Resales New Sales 40,000 51% # Units 52% 58% 30,000 44% 55% 50% 56% 49% 52% 57% 20,000 49% 49% 10,000 48% 42% 45% 50% 56% 43% 51% 44% 48% 51% 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013FSource: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC Monthly High-Rise New Sales and Resales and Average Pricing Greater Toronto Area, 2006 to 2012 4,500 $500,000 New Sales Resales New Price Resale Price 4,000 $450,000 3,500 $400,000 $350,000 3,000 Average Sale Price $300,000# Unit Sales 2,500 $250,000 2,000 $200,000 1,500 $150,000 1,000 $100,000 500 $50,000 0 $0 Jan-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  • New High-Rise Sales 905 vs 416 Greater Toronto Area, 2006 to 2011 25,000 2005 20,000 2006 2007 Total Sales (# Units) 15,000 2008 2009 2010 10,000 2011 2012 5,000 0 905 416Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC New High-Rise Sales By Former 416 Municipalities, 2006 to 2011 14,000 12,000 2005 2006 10,000 2007Total Sales (# Units) 8,000 2008 2009 6,000 2010 2011 4,000 2012 2,000 0 Etobicoke North York Scarborough TorontoSource: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  • New High-Rise Sales By 905 Municipalities, 2006 to 2011 3,000 2005 2006 2,500 2007 2008 2,000 2009 Total Sales (# Units) 2010 1,500 2011 2012 1,000 500 0Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  • New High-Rise Sales By Unit Type Greater Toronto Area, 2006 Penthouse Other 3 Bedroom & Up 2% 1% 2% 2 Bedroom + Den 9% Studio 5% 1 Bedroom 24% 2 Bedroom 23% 1 Bedroom + Den 34%Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC New High-Rise Sales By Unit Type Penthouse Greater Toronto Area, 2012 3% Other 1% Studio 3% 3 Bedroom & Up 2% 1 Bedroom 19% 2 Bedroom + Den 16% 1 Bedroom + Den 2 Bedroom 26% 30%Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  • New High-Rise Unsold Inventory and Site Count Greater Toronto Area, 2005 to 2012 25000 500 High Rise Inventory 450 High Rise Site Count 20000 400 Unsold Inventory (# of Units) # of Active High-Rise Site 350 15000 300 250 10000 200 150 5000 100 50 0 0 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC New High-Rise Occupancies Greater Toronto Area, 2000 to 2017F 1,910 2016 7,118 17,772 2014 47,581 19,197 2012 10,575 14,223 2010 16,304 11,259 2008 12,957 15,407 2006 14,361 15,046 2004 10,066 12,279 2002 9,832 3,906 2000 8,534 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Total UnitsSource: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  • Planned New Downtown Toronto Office BuildingsSource: Colliers InternationalPATH System South of Front Street – at 1 York (Menkes and HOOPP Realty Inc.)Source: Urban Toronto N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  • New Union Pearson (Airport) Express – Planned Station at UnionSource: Union Pearson Express a division of MetrolinxDundas West – Bloor Mobility HubSource: Metrolinx N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  • Eglinton-Scarborough CrosstownSource: Metrolinx N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  • Avenues Projects – Neighbourhood OrientedThe Rushton – St. Clair Avenue WestSource: Site Marketing MaterialsCarmelina Condominiums – Danforth AvenueSource: Site Marketing Materials N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  • 2013 – The Year of Incentives 3rd deal - Receive $3,500 bonus* 5th deal - Receive an additional $2,000 for a total of $5,500 bonus* 7th deal - Receive an additional $2,500 for a total of $8,000 bonus* 10th deal - Receive an additional $4,000 for a total of $12,000 bonus* 15th deal -Receive an additional $6,000 for a total of $18,000 bonus* (Each deal must firm up to qualify) N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  • Downtown East Gathering MomentumCanary District - Pan Am Athlete’s Village, Under ConstructionOur Questions For The Condo Network1) Is this a normal market slowdown or something else?2) What are the current buyer attitudes?3) Is there any interest in upgrading into newer condominiums?4) Where are the young families going?5) Are the empty nesters back?6) Do you think the investors will be back in large numbers?7) Do you see a glut of small units coming to the market?8) If you had the choice, where would you locate a new condominium apartment project and what would it contain?9) Do you see lower GTA immigration and a slowing Canadian economy affecting the market?10) Are there any other questions we should be asking ourselves? N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com