Canadian Leading Indicators September2009

Date: October 20, 2009 Canadian Composite Index of Leading Indicators Canadian Leading Indicators, September 2009 Results Month-Over-Month Per Cent Change 1.5% 1.0% Source: Statistics Canada 0.5% Link to Release: 0.0% http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/091020/dq091020c-eng.htm -0.5% -1.0% Summary: The monthly composite index of leading indicators produced by -1.5% Statistics Canada can point to the future economic growth trend. In September, -2.0% the index rose 1.1 per cent, after a revised increase of 1.2 per cent in August. Though large increases in the Housing (up 4.1 percent) and S&P/TSX (up 4.0 Source: Statistics Canada per cent) components of the index drove the overall figures, seven of the ten components were in positive territory. Leading Indicator Month/Month % Change Housing index (1992=100) 4.1% Analysis: September’s result was the fourth positive reading in a row for the Business and personal services employment ('000) -0.4% index. This follows the consensus view that recovery of the Canadian economy S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) 4.0% is underway and growth in Gross Domestic Product will have started in the third Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992) 1.0% quarter and will pick up steam moving into 2010. With this said, the 2.7 per cent US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100) 1.0% Average workweek (hours) 0.5% drop in durable goods orders suggests that the manufacturing sector is still an New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992) -2.7% area of weakness, especially given the high value of the Canadian dollar vis-à- Shipments/inventories of finished goods 0.02% vis the US. The exchange rate situation has prompted the Bank of Canada to Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992) 0.0% make a downward revision to their forecast for growth and to extend the period Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992) 0.9% of time it will take for the Canadian economy to reach full capacity. Economic Composite Index 1.1% Source: Statistics Canada recovery in Ontario and the GTA has certainly been driven by consumer spending, particularly in the housing market, but sustained recovery will depend on the re-emergence of a strong manufacturing sector which will be tied to the Written By: exchange rate and a bounce-back in the US economy. Jason Mercer TREB Senior Manager of Market Analysis. jmercer@trebnet.com

Canadian Leading Indicators September2009

by Richard Silver on Oct 21, 2009

Accessibility

Categories

Tags

Upload Details

Usage Rights

Statistics

Canadian Leading Indicators September2009 — Presentation Transcript