The Future of Media Presentation

Slide 1: The Future of Media - ‘Media Nation’ A Presentation to the Toronto Association of Law Librarians March 22, 2007

Slide 2: Today

Slide 3: Today 1. Introduction

Slide 4: Today 1. Introduction 2. How Did We Get Here?

Slide 5: Today 1. Introduction 2. How Did We Get Here? 3. The Future of Media

Slide 6: Today 1. Introduction 2. How Did We Get Here? 3. The Future of Media 4. Some Challenges

Slide 7: 1. ntroduction I

Slide 8: www.hyndmanlaw.com

Slide 9: www.robhyndman.com

Slide 10: www.meshconference.com

Slide 11: 4 laptops, no newspapers

Slide 12: 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007

Slide 13: 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch

Slide 14: 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers

Slide 15: 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops

Slide 16: 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops •Headphones

Slide 17: 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops •Headphones •iTunes, blogs, chat, YouTube

Slide 18: 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops •Headphones •iTunes, blogs, chat, YouTube •(No Canadian content)

Slide 19: 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops •Headphones •iTunes, blogs, chat, YouTube •(No Canadian content) •All < 40

Slide 20: Message:

Slide 21: We are standing on the threshold of a revolution - a profound transformation in the way we create and consume media

Slide 22: It is going to change everything.

Slide 23: Why?

Slide 24: •Media production is being democratized

Slide 25: •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized

Slide 26: •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging

Slide 27: •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social

Slide 28: •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere

Slide 29: •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere

Slide 30: •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal

Slide 31: •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal •Media is narrowcasting

Slide 32: •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal •Media is narrowcasting •Media has utility: search and linking

Slide 33: •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal •Media is narrowcasting •Media has utility: search and linking •Media reproduction has zero marginal cost

Slide 34: 2. How did we get here?

Slide 35: In the Beginning, there was the Book

Slide 36: Yet another revolution

Slide 37: And then there was the newspaper ...

Slide 38: “Check it out,” I said, “It’s a different kind of news delivery technology. It’s called a news- paper.”

Slide 39: “How does it work?” he asked.

Slide 40: “They have giant printers in Denver that print up thousands of these every day with news that was current as of something called ‘press time,’ and then they truck them out to towns, divide the truckloads into cars, and drop them on subscribers’ doorstep.”

Slide 41: “You paid for this?…” he frowned, shaking his head. “How do you search it?”

Slide 42: “It’s not really searchable, but it’s scannable. See, you can open up the pages wide and see lots of stories.”

Slide 43: “Looks like mostly ads.” ... - Amy Gahran, PoynterOnline.org

Slide 44: And then there was film ...

Slide 45: Newsreel

Slide 46: And then there was ... “Internet” (1993)

Slide 47: CBC on “Internet”

Slide 48: Old Media:

Slide 49: • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting)

Slide 50: • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs

Slide 51: • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs

Slide 52: • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules

Slide 53: • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules • Centralized editing

Slide 54: • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional

Slide 55: • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional • Difficult to share

Slide 56: • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional • Difficult to share • Often not relevant to “me” - not “my” media

Slide 57: • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional • Difficult to share • Often not relevant to “me” - not “my” media • A few “big” brands, dominating clearly defined different forms of media: newspapers, TV networks, music labels, radio stations ...

Slide 58: • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional • Difficult to share • Often not relevant to “me” - not “my” media • A few “big” brands, dominating clearly defined different forms of media: newspapers, TV networks, music labels, radio stations ... • = concentrated ownership; formulaic content; “mass” media

Slide 59: 3. The Future of Media

Slide 60: •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal •Media is narrowcasting •Media has utility: search and linking •Media reproduction has zero marginal cost

Slide 61: Media production is being democratized

Slide 62: “The people formerly known as the audience” - Jay Rosen, PressThink.com

Slide 63: “Once they were your printing presses; now that humble device, the blog, has given the press to us. That’s why blogs have been called little First Amendment machines. They extend freedom of the press to more actors.”

Slide 64: “Once it was your radio station, broadcasting on your frequency. Now that brilliant invention, podcasting, gives radio to us. And we have found more uses for it than you did.”

Slide 65: “Shooting, editing and distributing video once belonged to you, Big Media. Only you could afford to reach a TV audience built in your own image. Now video is coming into the user’s hands, and audience-building by former members of the audience is alive and well on the Web.”

Slide 66: “You were once (exclusively) the editors of the news, choosing what ran on the front page. Now we can edit the news, and our choices send items to our own front pages.”

Slide 67: “A highly centralized media system had connected people “up” to big social agencies and centers of power but not “across” to each other. Now the horizontal flow, citizen-to-citizen, is as real and consequential as the vertical one.” - Jay Rosen

Slide 68: “Give the people control of media, they will use it. The corollary: Don’t give the people control of media, and you will lose. Whenever citizens can exercise control, they will.” - Jeff Jarvis, BuzzMachine.com

Slide 69: Why does this matter?

Slide 70: “Vote Different”

Slide 71: Anonymously created

Slide 72: March 5 - 22: ~2.3M views on YouTube

Slide 73: “... anybody can do powerful emotional ads .... It will no longer be a top-down candidate message; that's a 20th century broadcast model.” - Simon Rosenberg, New Democratic Network

Slide 75: The tools:

Slide 81: Media production is being atomized

Slide 82: Numbers

Slide 83: Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive

Slide 84: Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day

Slide 85: Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day •Latest Flickr photo is approx #426,922,000

Slide 86: Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day •Latest Flickr photo is approx #426,922,000 •Number of MySpace “users” > 100,000,000; active users perhaps approx 50,000,000

Slide 87: Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day •Latest Flickr photo is approx #426,922,000 •Number of MySpace “users” > 100,000,000; active users perhaps approx 50,000,000 •Number of english Wikipedia articles > 1,690,000

Slide 88: Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day •Latest Flickr photo is approx #426,922,000 •Number of MySpace “users” > 100,000,000; active users perhaps approx 50,000,000 •Number of english Wikipedia articles > 1,690,000 •In January 2007 Libsyn served > 63,000,000 podcasts

Slide 89: Old Media

Slide 90: New Media

Slide 102: A perfect storm

Slide 103: A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Digital cameras •Cameraphones •Camcorders •Blogging platforms •Digital recorders

Slide 104: A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Camcorders •Blogging platforms •Digital recorders

Slide 105: A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Web 2.0: Ajax, open API’s •Camcorders •Blogging platforms •Digital recorders

Slide 106: A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Web 2.0: Ajax, open API’s •Camcorders •Wireless •Blogging platforms •Digital recorders

Slide 107: A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Web 2.0: Ajax, open API’s •Camcorders •Wireless •Blogging platforms •Inexpensive, powerful •Digital recorders laptops

Slide 108: A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Web 2.0: Ajax, open API’s •Camcorders •Wireless •Blogging platforms •Inexpensive, powerful •Digital recorders laptops •iPod

Slide 109: Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs

Slide 110: Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself

Slide 111: Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself • For some, digital narcissism

Slide 112: Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself • For some, digital narcissism • A need to hear from ‘people like me’

Slide 113: Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself • For some, digital narcissism • A need to hear from ‘people like me’ • “The internet flatters us with attention in a way that Hollywood no longer can” - Steve Bryant, ReelPopBlog.com

Slide 114: Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself • For some, digital narcissism • A need to hear from ‘people like me’ • “The internet flatters us with attention in a way that Hollywood no longer can” - Steve Bryant, ReelPopBlog.com • To be told the truth - Old Media are often complicit in the ‘stories’ that ‘BigPolitics’ and ‘BigBusiness’ tell us • Ann Coulter / John Edwards • Trent Lott / Strom Thurmond • Iraq War

Slide 115: Why does this matter?

Slide 116: Anyone can produce media

Slide 117: The ‘audience’ is fragmenting

Slide 118: Newspaper circulation is falling; accelerating

Slide 119: (“Journalism is becoming a smaller part of people’s information mix. The press is no longer gatekeeper over what the public knows. Journalists have reacted relatively slowly. They are only now beginning to re- imagine their role.” - State of the News Media 2007 Report)

Slide 120: Magazines are closing

Slide 121: TV news audience is falling

Slide 122: CD sales are plunging (-20% from last year); sales of digital singles are growing (+54%)

Slide 123: And next ...

Slide 126: Note: OldMedia doesn’t ‘get’ the Web

Slide 127: OldMedia websites are awkward, unattractive, inefficient and hard to use

Slide 128: Content delivery is clumsy

Slide 129: Are they capable of adapting?

Slide 130: Or do they need to be ... replaced?

Slide 131: Media formats are converging

Slide 132: Is Slate.com a magazine, a radio station, a TV network, or a town hall meeting?

Slide 133: Magazine

Slide 134: Radio

Slide 135: TV

Slide 136: Town Hall

Slide 137: What about The New York Times?

Slide 138: News

Slide 139: TV

Slide 140: Radio

Slide 141: Other media also: radio stations in the U.S are starting to host video on their websites

Slide 142: Why does this matter?

Slide 143: The Web is format agnostic - any message can use any medium

Slide 144: Traditional media formats are competing with each other as never before

Slide 145: Media is becoming social

Slide 146: Media feeds our internal lives

Slide 147: But media also enriches our relationships

Slide 148: And relationships enrich our use of media

Slide 152: Why does this matter?

Slide 153: Overlaying the mediascape with a network that connects us elevates the role of media in our lives

Slide 154: Media becomes more relevant and useful

Slide 155: Media can be distributed from anywhere

Slide 156: In 1990, we read, watched, and listened to what was worth delivering to us

Slide 157: Today, ‘The World is Flat’

Slide 158: Today, media must compete beyond borders

Slide 163: Media is now competing across geography

Slide 164: (more fragmentation)

Slide 165: Media can be consumed everywhere

Slide 166: Media Nation

Slide 167: Media Nation •iPod nation

Slide 168: Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio

Slide 169: Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-fi and laptops

Slide 170: Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-fi and laptops •Mobile video and audio

Slide 171: Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-fi and laptops •Mobile video and audio •3G networks are coming

Slide 172: Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-fi and laptops •Mobile video and audio •3G networks are coming •Municipal wi-fi is coming

Slide 173: Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-fi and laptops •Mobile video and audio •3G networks are coming •Municipal wi-fi is coming •Video iPods

Slide 174: Media is becoming hyperlocal

Slide 175: We are starting to see more local media

Slide 176: All news is local / all politics is local

Slide 177: Blogs + digital cameras + podcasts + online video

Slide 183: (more fragmentation)

Slide 184: Media is narrowcasting

Slide 185: narrowcasting = media for ‘me’

Slide 186: highly ‘targeted’ media

Slide 190: Recommendation engines narrowcast, too

Slide 193: RSS = syndication for ‘me’ - ‘MyMedia’

Slide 194: there is media for every audience

Slide 195: and an audience for all media

Slide 196: (more fragmentation)

Slide 197: Media has utility: search and linking

Slide 198: Underneath the proliferation of content there is another reason for the growth of content online

Slide 199: It’s better

Slide 200: Online content is more useful than offline

Slide 201: Search, archive, copy, paste, link, rip, mix and burn

Slide 202: Do more with your media

Slide 203: Media reproduction has zero marginal cost

Slide 204: Not only are the fixed costs of creating digital media plummeting, but (except for bandwidth costs), the cost to serve one additional customer with digital media is zero

Slide 205: Abundance economics: when MC~0, give it away for free (loss leader)

Slide 206: Bands are giving away music for free to generate live event interest and ticket sales

Slide 207: The price of much new media is now zero

Slide 208: But Old Media doesn’t cost zero

Slide 209: So what happens next? Who pays for all of this?

Slide 210: Subscriptions?

Slide 211: For some services, it makes sense - music, Flickr Pro, WSJ, Joost, etc.

Slide 212: But new competitors keep driving cost down

Slide 213: And somewhere on the internet there is always someone ready to give it - or something almost as good as it - away for free

Slide 214: And most user-generated content is free

Slide 215: (The internet is the most efficient machine created for squeezing profit margins to zero)

Slide 216: And it’s not working for everyone

Slide 217: The Globe and Mail Insider? New York Times Select?

Slide 218: 66% of NYT Select members get it free with their print subscription

Slide 219: Advertising?

Slide 220: RPM = “revenue per mille” = $ of revenue - whether by impression, or click, or result - per thousand impressions

Slide 221: •Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM

Slide 222: •Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM

Slide 223: •Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM

Slide 224: •Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM •To generate $50M annual revenues: •$1 RPM: 50 billion pageviews a year •$5 RPM: 10 billion pageviews a year •$20 RPM: 2.5 billion pageviews a year

Slide 225: •Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM •To generate $50M annual revenues: •$1 RPM: 50 billion pageviews a year •$5 RPM: 10 billion pageviews a year •$20 RPM: 2.5 billion pageviews a year •Microsoft.com: approx 10 billion PVs per year?

Slide 226: •Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM •To generate $50M annual revenues: •$1 RPM: 50 billion pageviews a year •$5 RPM: 10 billion pageviews a year •$20 RPM: 2.5 billion pageviews a year •Microsoft.com: approx 10 billion PVs per year? •Globeandmail.com: approx 1 billion PVs per year?

Slide 227: •Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM •To generate $50M annual revenues: •$1 RPM: 50 billion pageviews a year •$5 RPM: 10 billion pageviews a year •$20 RPM: 2.5 billion pageviews a year •Microsoft.com: approx 10 billion PVs per year? •Globeandmail.com: approx 1 billion PVs per year? •$5M in revenues with $5 RPM = 1 billion PVs per year

Slide 228: And, Canadian advertisers are not that interested in U.S. traffic (and globally, vice versa)

Slide 229: And, Canada is a small country - it’s hard to assemble a mass audience

Slide 230: And, the audience is fragmenting

Slide 231: And, impressions are not a great measure of engagement to begin with

Slide 232: And, the medium is not like TV - it’s hard to focus the audience on the message - they multi-task

Slide 233: And, without a focused, passive, mass audience, it’s hard to use online advertising to brand

Slide 234: Selling to people who already have intention is one thing. How do we create intention on the internet?

Slide 235: Advertisers know this, and while online ad spending is increasing, they are wary

Slide 236: This is why advertisers want the internet to be like TV - they want the audience to passively digest

Slide 237: Coming soon to computers near you: the battle over what online video means to advertisers and what it means to audiences

Slide 238: Does this mean that content can’t ‘scale’? Is the end of “mass” media? And / or BigMedia?

Slide 239: 4. ome Challenges S

Slide 240: Viacom vs. Google - what does it mean?

Slide 241: Related: BigMedia trying to create its own captive competitor to YouTube

Slide 242: U.S. copyright royalties on Internet Radio

Slide 243: Measuring traffic and engagement reliably

Slide 244: Unlocking the secrets to branding online

Slide 245: Figuring out how to get paid

Slide 246: Thank you! Questions?

Slide 247: The Future of Media - ‘Media Nation’ A Presentation to the Toronto Association of Law Librarians March 22, 2007

Slide 248: The Future of Media - ‘Media Nation’ A Presentation to the Toronto Association of Law Librarians March 22, 2007