The Future of Media Presentation

The Future of Media - ‘Media Nation’ A Presentation to the Toronto Association of Law Librarians March 22, 2007

Today

Today 1. Introduction

Today 1. Introduction 2. How Did We Get Here?

Today 1. Introduction 2. How Did We Get Here? 3. The Future of Media

Today 1. Introduction 2. How Did We Get Here? 3. The Future of Media 4. Some Challenges

1. ntroduction I

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4 laptops, no newspapers

4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007

4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch

4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers

4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops

4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops •Headphones

4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops •Headphones •iTunes, blogs, chat, YouTube

4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops •Headphones •iTunes, blogs, chat, YouTube •(No Canadian content)

4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops •Headphones •iTunes, blogs, chat, YouTube •(No Canadian content) •All < 40

Message:

We are standing on the threshold of a revolution - a profound transformation in the way we create and consume media

It is going to change everything.

Why?

•Media production is being democratized

•Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized

•Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging

•Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social

•Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere

•Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere

•Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal

•Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal •Media is narrowcasting

•Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal •Media is narrowcasting •Media has utility: search and linking

•Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal •Media is narrowcasting •Media has utility: search and linking •Media reproduction has zero marginal cost

2. How did we get here?

In the Beginning, there was the Book

Yet another revolution

And then there was the newspaper ...

“Check it out,” I said, “It’s a different kind of news delivery technology. It’s called a newspaper.”

“How does it work?” he asked.

“They have giant printers in Denver that print up thousands of these every day with news that was current as of something called ‘press time,’ and then they truck them out to towns, divide the truckloads into cars, and drop them on subscribers’ doorstep.”

“You paid for this?…” he frowned, shaking his head. “How do you search it?”

“It’s not really searchable, but it’s scannable. See, you can open up the pages wide and see lots of stories.”

“Looks like mostly ads.” ... - Amy Gahran, PoynterOnline.org

And then there was ﬁlm ...

Newsreel

And then there was ... “Internet” (1993)

CBC on “Internet”

Old Media:

• Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting)

• Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs

• Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs

• Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Deﬁned schedules

• Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Deﬁned schedules • Centralized editing

• Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Deﬁned schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional

• Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Deﬁned schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional • Difﬁcult to share

• Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Deﬁned schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional • Difﬁcult to share • Often not relevant to “me” - not “my” media

• Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional • Difficult to share • Often not relevant to “me” - not “my” media • A few “big” brands, dominating clearly defined different forms of media: newspapers, TV networks, music labels, radio stations ...

• Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional • Difficult to share • Often not relevant to “me” - not “my” media • A few “big” brands, dominating clearly defined different forms of media: newspapers, TV networks, music labels, radio stations ... • = concentrated ownership; formulaic content; “mass” media

3. The Future of Media

•Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal •Media is narrowcasting •Media has utility: search and linking •Media reproduction has zero marginal cost

Media production is being democratized

“The people formerly known as the audience” - Jay Rosen, PressThink.com

“Once they were your printing presses; now that humble device, the blog, has given the press to us. That’s why blogs have been called little First Amendment machines. They extend freedom of the press to more actors.”

“Once it was your radio station, broadcasting on your frequency. Now that brilliant invention, podcasting, gives radio to us. And we have found more uses for it than you did.”

“Shooting, editing and distributing video once belonged to you, Big Media. Only you could afford to reach a TV audience built in your own image. Now video is coming into the user’s hands, and audience-building by former members of the audience is alive and well on the Web.”

“You were once (exclusively) the editors of the news, choosing what ran on the front page. Now we can edit the news, and our choices send items to our own front pages.”

“A highly centralized media system had connected people “up” to big social agencies and centers of power but not “across” to each other. Now the horizontal ﬂow, citizen-to-citizen, is as real and consequential as the vertical one.” - Jay Rosen

“Give the people control of media, they will use it. The corollary: Don’t give the people control of media, and you will lose. Whenever citizens can exercise control, they will.” - Jeff Jarvis, BuzzMachine.com

Why does this matter?

“Vote Different”

Anonymously created

March 5 - 22: ~2.3M views on YouTube

“... anybody can do powerful emotional ads .... It will no longer be a top-down candidate message; that's a 20th century broadcast model.” - Simon Rosenberg, New Democratic Network

The tools:

Media production is being atomized

Numbers

Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive

Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day

Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day •Latest Flickr photo is approx #426,922,000

Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day •Latest Flickr photo is approx #426,922,000 •Number of MySpace “users” > 100,000,000; active users perhaps approx 50,000,000

Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day •Latest Flickr photo is approx #426,922,000 •Number of MySpace “users” > 100,000,000; active users perhaps approx 50,000,000 •Number of english Wikipedia articles > 1,690,000

Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day •Latest Flickr photo is approx #426,922,000 •Number of MySpace “users” > 100,000,000; active users perhaps approx 50,000,000 •Number of english Wikipedia articles > 1,690,000 •In January 2007 Libsyn served > 63,000,000 podcasts

Old Media

New Media

A perfect storm

A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Digital cameras •Cameraphones •Camcorders •Blogging platforms •Digital recorders

A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Camcorders •Blogging platforms •Digital recorders

A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Web 2.0: Ajax, open API’s •Camcorders •Blogging platforms •Digital recorders

A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Web 2.0: Ajax, open API’s •Camcorders •Wireless •Blogging platforms •Digital recorders

A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Web 2.0: Ajax, open API’s •Camcorders •Wireless •Blogging platforms •Inexpensive, powerful •Digital recorders laptops

A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Web 2.0: Ajax, open API’s •Camcorders •Wireless •Blogging platforms •Inexpensive, powerful •Digital recorders laptops •iPod

Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs

Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself

Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself • For some, digital narcissism

Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself • For some, digital narcissism • A need to hear from ‘people like me’

Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself • For some, digital narcissism • A need to hear from ‘people like me’ • “The internet ﬂatters us with attention in a way that Hollywood no longer can” - Steve Bryant, ReelPopBlog.com

Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself • For some, digital narcissism • A need to hear from ‘people like me’ • “The internet ﬂatters us with attention in a way that Hollywood no longer can” - Steve Bryant, ReelPopBlog.com • To be told the truth - Old Media are often complicit in the ‘stories’ that ‘BigPolitics’ and ‘BigBusiness’ tell us • Ann Coulter / John Edwards • Trent Lott / Strom Thurmond • Iraq War

Anyone can produce media

The ‘audience’ is fragmenting

Newspaper circulation is falling; accelerating

(“Journalism is becoming a smaller part of people’s information mix. The press is no longer gatekeeper over what the public knows. Journalists have reacted relatively slowly. They are only now beginning to re- imagine their role.” - State of the News Media 2007 Report)

Magazines are closing

TV news audience is falling

CD sales are plunging (-20% from last year); sales of digital singles are growing (+54%)

And next ...

Note: OldMedia doesn’t ‘get’ the Web

OldMedia websites are awkward, unattractive, inefﬁcient and hard to use

Content delivery is clumsy

Are they capable of adapting?

Or do they need to be ... replaced?

Media formats are converging

Is Slate.com a magazine, a radio station, a TV network, or a town hall meeting?

Magazine

Radio

TV

Town Hall

What about The New York Times?

News

TV

Radio

Other media also: radio stations in the U.S are starting to host video on their websites

The Web is format agnostic - any message can use any medium

Traditional media formats are competing with each other as never before

Media is becoming social

Media feeds our internal lives

But media also enriches our relationships

And relationships enrich our use of media

Overlaying the mediascape with a network that connects us elevates the role of media in our lives

Media becomes more relevant and useful

Media can be distributed from anywhere

In 1990, we read, watched, and listened to what was worth delivering to us

Today, ‘The World is Flat’

Today, media must compete beyond borders

Media is now competing across geography

(more fragmentation)

Media can be consumed everywhere

Media Nation

Media Nation •iPod nation

Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio

Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-ﬁ and laptops

Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-ﬁ and laptops •Mobile video and audio

Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-ﬁ and laptops •Mobile video and audio •3G networks are coming

Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-ﬁ and laptops •Mobile video and audio •3G networks are coming •Municipal wi-ﬁ is coming

Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-ﬁ and laptops •Mobile video and audio •3G networks are coming •Municipal wi-ﬁ is coming •Video iPods

Media is becoming hyperlocal

We are starting to see more local media

All news is local / all politics is local

Blogs + digital cameras + podcasts + online video

Media is narrowcasting

narrowcasting = media for ‘me’

highly ‘targeted’ media

Recommendation engines narrowcast, too

RSS = syndication for ‘me’ - ‘MyMedia’

there is media for every audience

and an audience for all media

Media has utility: search and linking

Underneath the proliferation of content there is another reason for the growth of content online

It’s better

Online content is more useful than ofﬂine

Search, archive, copy, paste, link, rip, mix and burn

Do more with your media

Media reproduction has zero marginal cost

Not only are the ﬁxed costs of creating digital media plummeting, but (except for bandwidth costs), the cost to serve one additional customer with digital media is zero

Abundance economics: when MC~0, give it away for free (loss leader)

Bands are giving away music for free to generate live event interest and ticket sales

The price of much new media is now zero

But Old Media doesn’t cost zero

So what happens next? Who pays for all of this?

Subscriptions?

For some services, it makes sense - music, Flickr Pro, WSJ, Joost, etc.

But new competitors keep driving cost down

And somewhere on the internet there is always someone ready to give it - or something almost as good as it - away for free

And most user-generated content is free

(The internet is the most efﬁcient machine created for squeezing proﬁt margins to zero)

And it’s not working for everyone

The Globe and Mail Insider? New York Times Select?

66% of NYT Select members get it free with their print subscription

Advertising?

RPM = “revenue per mille” = $ of revenue - whether by impression, or click, or result - per thousand impressions

•Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM

•Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM

•Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM

•Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM •To generate $50M annual revenues: •$1 RPM: 50 billion pageviews a year •$5 RPM: 10 billion pageviews a year •$20 RPM: 2.5 billion pageviews a year

•Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM •To generate $50M annual revenues: •$1 RPM: 50 billion pageviews a year •$5 RPM: 10 billion pageviews a year •$20 RPM: 2.5 billion pageviews a year •Microsoft.com: approx 10 billion PVs per year?

•Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM •To generate $50M annual revenues: •$1 RPM: 50 billion pageviews a year •$5 RPM: 10 billion pageviews a year •$20 RPM: 2.5 billion pageviews a year •Microsoft.com: approx 10 billion PVs per year? •Globeandmail.com: approx 1 billion PVs per year?

•Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM •To generate $50M annual revenues: •$1 RPM: 50 billion pageviews a year •$5 RPM: 10 billion pageviews a year •$20 RPM: 2.5 billion pageviews a year •Microsoft.com: approx 10 billion PVs per year? •Globeandmail.com: approx 1 billion PVs per year? •$5M in revenues with $5 RPM = 1 billion PVs per year

And, Canadian advertisers are not that interested in U.S. trafﬁc (and globally, vice versa)

And, Canada is a small country - it’s hard to assemble a mass audience

And, the audience is fragmenting

And, impressions are not a great measure of engagement to begin with

And, the medium is not like TV - it’s hard to focus the audience on the message - they multi-task

And, without a focused, passive, mass audience, it’s hard to use online advertising to brand

Selling to people who already have intention is one thing. How do we create intention on the internet?

Advertisers know this, and while online ad spending is increasing, they are wary

This is why advertisers want the internet to be like TV - they want the audience to passively digest

Coming soon to computers near you: the battle over what online video means to advertisers and what it means to audiences

Does this mean that content can’t ‘scale’? Is the end of “mass” media? And / or BigMedia?

4. ome Challenges S

Viacom vs. Google - what does it mean?

Related: BigMedia trying to create its own captive competitor to YouTube

U.S. copyright royalties on Internet Radio

Measuring trafﬁc and engagement reliably

Unlocking the secrets to branding online

Figuring out how to get paid

Thank you! Questions?

The Future of Media - ‘Media Nation’ A Presentation to the Toronto Association of Law Librarians March 22, 2007

The Future of Media Presentation

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