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  • + banghia VietnamMarcom, UEH (university) 5 months ago
    Great ! it is well research !
  • + bluecottonmouth bluecottonmouth 6 months ago
    Hi,
    Very well done job you have here!
    Could you allow me to download this?
    Thank you
  • + m.bartocci m.bartocci 8 months ago
    could you allow me as well to download this? thanks Monica
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    Great work!. could you please allow me to download this? thanks

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The Future of Media Presentation - Presentation Transcript

  1. The Future of Media - ‘Media Nation’ A Presentation to the Toronto Association of Law Librarians March 22, 2007
  2. Today
  3. Today 1. Introduction
  4. Today 1. Introduction 2. How Did We Get Here?
  5. Today 1. Introduction 2. How Did We Get Here? 3. The Future of Media
  6. Today 1. Introduction 2. How Did We Get Here? 3. The Future of Media 4. Some Challenges
  7. 1. ntroduction I
  8. www.hyndmanlaw.com
  9. www.robhyndman.com
  10. www.meshconference.com
  11. 4 laptops, no newspapers
  12. 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007
  13. 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch
  14. 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers
  15. 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops
  16. 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops •Headphones
  17. 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops •Headphones •iTunes, blogs, chat, YouTube
  18. 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops •Headphones •iTunes, blogs, chat, YouTube •(No Canadian content)
  19. 4 laptops, no newspapers •May 18, 2007 •Tinto, on Roncesvalles, for brunch •No newspapers •Free wireless + 4 laptops •Headphones •iTunes, blogs, chat, YouTube •(No Canadian content) •All < 40
  20. Message:
  21. We are standing on the threshold of a revolution - a profound transformation in the way we create and consume media
  22. It is going to change everything.
  23. Why?
  24. •Media production is being democratized
  25. •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized
  26. •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging
  27. •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social
  28. •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere
  29. •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere
  30. •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal
  31. •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal •Media is narrowcasting
  32. •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal •Media is narrowcasting •Media has utility: search and linking
  33. •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal •Media is narrowcasting •Media has utility: search and linking •Media reproduction has zero marginal cost
  34. 2. How did we get here?
  35. In the Beginning, there was the Book
  36. Yet another revolution
  37. And then there was the newspaper ...
  38. “Check it out,” I said, “It’s a different kind of news delivery technology. It’s called a news- paper.”
  39. “How does it work?” he asked.
  40. “They have giant printers in Denver that print up thousands of these every day with news that was current as of something called ‘press time,’ and then they truck them out to towns, divide the truckloads into cars, and drop them on subscribers’ doorstep.”
  41. “You paid for this?…” he frowned, shaking his head. “How do you search it?”
  42. “It’s not really searchable, but it’s scannable. See, you can open up the pages wide and see lots of stories.”
  43. “Looks like mostly ads.” ... - Amy Gahran, PoynterOnline.org
  44. And then there was film ...
  45. Newsreel
  46. And then there was ... “Internet” (1993)
  47. CBC on “Internet”
  48. Old Media:
  49. • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting)
  50. • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs
  51. • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs
  52. • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules
  53. • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules • Centralized editing
  54. • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional
  55. • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional • Difficult to share
  56. • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional • Difficult to share • Often not relevant to “me” - not “my” media
  57. • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional • Difficult to share • Often not relevant to “me” - not “my” media • A few “big” brands, dominating clearly defined different forms of media: newspapers, TV networks, music labels, radio stations ...
  58. • Based on geographical monopolies, gov’t licences and high barriers to entry (equipment, cable infrastructure, broadcasting) • High production costs • High distribution costs • Defined schedules • Centralized editing • Limited functionality and useability; one dimensional • Difficult to share • Often not relevant to “me” - not “my” media • A few “big” brands, dominating clearly defined different forms of media: newspapers, TV networks, music labels, radio stations ... • = concentrated ownership; formulaic content; “mass” media
  59. 3. The Future of Media
  60. •Media production is being democratized •Media production is being atomized •Media formats are converging •Media is becoming social •Media can be distributed from anywhere •Media can be consumed everywhere •Media is becoming hyperlocal •Media is narrowcasting •Media has utility: search and linking •Media reproduction has zero marginal cost
  61. Media production is being democratized
  62. “The people formerly known as the audience” - Jay Rosen, PressThink.com
  63. “Once they were your printing presses; now that humble device, the blog, has given the press to us. That’s why blogs have been called little First Amendment machines. They extend freedom of the press to more actors.”
  64. “Once it was your radio station, broadcasting on your frequency. Now that brilliant invention, podcasting, gives radio to us. And we have found more uses for it than you did.”
  65. “Shooting, editing and distributing video once belonged to you, Big Media. Only you could afford to reach a TV audience built in your own image. Now video is coming into the user’s hands, and audience-building by former members of the audience is alive and well on the Web.”
  66. “You were once (exclusively) the editors of the news, choosing what ran on the front page. Now we can edit the news, and our choices send items to our own front pages.”
  67. “A highly centralized media system had connected people “up” to big social agencies and centers of power but not “across” to each other. Now the horizontal flow, citizen-to-citizen, is as real and consequential as the vertical one.” - Jay Rosen
  68. “Give the people control of media, they will use it. The corollary: Don’t give the people control of media, and you will lose. Whenever citizens can exercise control, they will.” - Jeff Jarvis, BuzzMachine.com
  69. Why does this matter?
  70. “Vote Different”
  71. Anonymously created
  72. March 5 - 22: ~2.3M views on YouTube
  73. “... anybody can do powerful emotional ads .... It will no longer be a top-down candidate message; that's a 20th century broadcast model.” - Simon Rosenberg, New Democratic Network
  74. The tools:
  75. Media production is being atomized
  76. Numbers
  77. Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive
  78. Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day
  79. Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day •Latest Flickr photo is approx #426,922,000
  80. Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day •Latest Flickr photo is approx #426,922,000 •Number of MySpace “users” > 100,000,000; active users perhaps approx 50,000,000
  81. Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day •Latest Flickr photo is approx #426,922,000 •Number of MySpace “users” > 100,000,000; active users perhaps approx 50,000,000 •Number of english Wikipedia articles > 1,690,000
  82. Numbers •Technorati: approx 57,000,000 blogs; many not counted; some inactive •YouTube: serves > 100,000,000 videos every day •Latest Flickr photo is approx #426,922,000 •Number of MySpace “users” > 100,000,000; active users perhaps approx 50,000,000 •Number of english Wikipedia articles > 1,690,000 •In January 2007 Libsyn served > 63,000,000 podcasts
  83. Old Media
  84. New Media
  85. A perfect storm
  86. A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Digital cameras •Cameraphones •Camcorders •Blogging platforms •Digital recorders
  87. A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Camcorders •Blogging platforms •Digital recorders
  88. A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Web 2.0: Ajax, open API’s •Camcorders •Blogging platforms •Digital recorders
  89. A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Web 2.0: Ajax, open API’s •Camcorders •Wireless •Blogging platforms •Digital recorders
  90. A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Web 2.0: Ajax, open API’s •Camcorders •Wireless •Blogging platforms •Inexpensive, powerful •Digital recorders laptops
  91. A perfect storm •Inexpensive tools •Broadband + High penetration of internet •Digital cameras usage •Cameraphones •Web 2.0: Ajax, open API’s •Camcorders •Wireless •Blogging platforms •Inexpensive, powerful •Digital recorders laptops •iPod
  92. Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs
  93. Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself
  94. Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself • For some, digital narcissism
  95. Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself • For some, digital narcissism • A need to hear from ‘people like me’
  96. Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself • For some, digital narcissism • A need to hear from ‘people like me’ • “The internet flatters us with attention in a way that Hollywood no longer can” - Steve Bryant, ReelPopBlog.com
  97. Democratization & atomization tap into basic human needs • Desire to express oneself • For some, digital narcissism • A need to hear from ‘people like me’ • “The internet flatters us with attention in a way that Hollywood no longer can” - Steve Bryant, ReelPopBlog.com • To be told the truth - Old Media are often complicit in the ‘stories’ that ‘BigPolitics’ and ‘BigBusiness’ tell us • Ann Coulter / John Edwards • Trent Lott / Strom Thurmond • Iraq War
  98. Why does this matter?
  99. Anyone can produce media
  100. The ‘audience’ is fragmenting
  101. Newspaper circulation is falling; accelerating
  102. (“Journalism is becoming a smaller part of people’s information mix. The press is no longer gatekeeper over what the public knows. Journalists have reacted relatively slowly. They are only now beginning to re- imagine their role.” - State of the News Media 2007 Report)
  103. Magazines are closing
  104. TV news audience is falling
  105. CD sales are plunging (-20% from last year); sales of digital singles are growing (+54%)
  106. And next ...
  107. Note: OldMedia doesn’t ‘get’ the Web
  108. OldMedia websites are awkward, unattractive, inefficient and hard to use
  109. Content delivery is clumsy
  110. Are they capable of adapting?
  111. Or do they need to be ... replaced?
  112. Media formats are converging
  113. Is Slate.com a magazine, a radio station, a TV network, or a town hall meeting?
  114. Magazine
  115. Radio
  116. TV
  117. Town Hall
  118. What about The New York Times?
  119. News
  120. TV
  121. Radio
  122. Other media also: radio stations in the U.S are starting to host video on their websites
  123. Why does this matter?
  124. The Web is format agnostic - any message can use any medium
  125. Traditional media formats are competing with each other as never before
  126. Media is becoming social
  127. Media feeds our internal lives
  128. But media also enriches our relationships
  129. And relationships enrich our use of media
  130. Why does this matter?
  131. Overlaying the mediascape with a network that connects us elevates the role of media in our lives
  132. Media becomes more relevant and useful
  133. Media can be distributed from anywhere
  134. In 1990, we read, watched, and listened to what was worth delivering to us
  135. Today, ‘The World is Flat’
  136. Today, media must compete beyond borders
  137. Media is now competing across geography
  138. (more fragmentation)
  139. Media can be consumed everywhere
  140. Media Nation
  141. Media Nation •iPod nation
  142. Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio
  143. Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-fi and laptops
  144. Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-fi and laptops •Mobile video and audio
  145. Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-fi and laptops •Mobile video and audio •3G networks are coming
  146. Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-fi and laptops •Mobile video and audio •3G networks are coming •Municipal wi-fi is coming
  147. Media Nation •iPod nation •Satellite radio •Wi-fi and laptops •Mobile video and audio •3G networks are coming •Municipal wi-fi is coming •Video iPods
  148. Media is becoming hyperlocal
  149. We are starting to see more local media
  150. All news is local / all politics is local
  151. Blogs + digital cameras + podcasts + online video
  152. (more fragmentation)
  153. Media is narrowcasting
  154. narrowcasting = media for ‘me’
  155. highly ‘targeted’ media
  156. Recommendation engines narrowcast, too
  157. RSS = syndication for ‘me’ - ‘MyMedia’
  158. there is media for every audience
  159. and an audience for all media
  160. (more fragmentation)
  161. Media has utility: search and linking
  162. Underneath the proliferation of content there is another reason for the growth of content online
  163. It’s better
  164. Online content is more useful than offline
  165. Search, archive, copy, paste, link, rip, mix and burn
  166. Do more with your media
  167. Media reproduction has zero marginal cost
  168. Not only are the fixed costs of creating digital media plummeting, but (except for bandwidth costs), the cost to serve one additional customer with digital media is zero
  169. Abundance economics: when MC~0, give it away for free (loss leader)
  170. Bands are giving away music for free to generate live event interest and ticket sales
  171. The price of much new media is now zero
  172. But Old Media doesn’t cost zero
  173. So what happens next? Who pays for all of this?
  174. Subscriptions?
  175. For some services, it makes sense - music, Flickr Pro, WSJ, Joost, etc.
  176. But new competitors keep driving cost down
  177. And somewhere on the internet there is always someone ready to give it - or something almost as good as it - away for free
  178. And most user-generated content is free
  179. (The internet is the most efficient machine created for squeezing profit margins to zero)
  180. And it’s not working for everyone
  181. The Globe and Mail Insider? New York Times Select?
  182. 66% of NYT Select members get it free with their print subscription
  183. Advertising?
  184. RPM = “revenue per mille” = $ of revenue - whether by impression, or click, or result - per thousand impressions
  185. •Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM
  186. •Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM
  187. •Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM
  188. •Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM •To generate $50M annual revenues: •$1 RPM: 50 billion pageviews a year •$5 RPM: 10 billion pageviews a year •$20 RPM: 2.5 billion pageviews a year
  189. •Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM •To generate $50M annual revenues: •$1 RPM: 50 billion pageviews a year •$5 RPM: 10 billion pageviews a year •$20 RPM: 2.5 billion pageviews a year •Microsoft.com: approx 10 billion PVs per year?
  190. •Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM •To generate $50M annual revenues: •$1 RPM: 50 billion pageviews a year •$5 RPM: 10 billion pageviews a year •$20 RPM: 2.5 billion pageviews a year •Microsoft.com: approx 10 billion PVs per year? •Globeandmail.com: approx 1 billion PVs per year?
  191. •Many general sites can get only a $1 RPM •Some demographic targeting: $5 RPM •Quality demographic with ‘extras’: $20 RPM •To generate $50M annual revenues: •$1 RPM: 50 billion pageviews a year •$5 RPM: 10 billion pageviews a year •$20 RPM: 2.5 billion pageviews a year •Microsoft.com: approx 10 billion PVs per year? •Globeandmail.com: approx 1 billion PVs per year? •$5M in revenues with $5 RPM = 1 billion PVs per year
  192. And, Canadian advertisers are not that interested in U.S. traffic (and globally, vice versa)
  193. And, Canada is a small country - it’s hard to assemble a mass audience
  194. And, the audience is fragmenting
  195. And, impressions are not a great measure of engagement to begin with
  196. And, the medium is not like TV - it’s hard to focus the audience on the message - they multi-task
  197. And, without a focused, passive, mass audience, it’s hard to use online advertising to brand
  198. Selling to people who already have intention is one thing. How do we create intention on the internet?
  199. Advertisers know this, and while online ad spending is increasing, they are wary
  200. This is why advertisers want the internet to be like TV - they want the audience to passively digest
  201. Coming soon to computers near you: the battle over what online video means to advertisers and what it means to audiences
  202. Does this mean that content can’t ‘scale’? Is the end of “mass” media? And / or BigMedia?
  203. 4. ome Challenges S
  204. Viacom vs. Google - what does it mean?
  205. Related: BigMedia trying to create its own captive competitor to YouTube
  206. U.S. copyright royalties on Internet Radio
  207. Measuring traffic and engagement reliably
  208. Unlocking the secrets to branding online
  209. Figuring out how to get paid
  210. Thank you! Questions?
  211. The Future of Media - ‘Media Nation’ A Presentation to the Toronto Association of Law Librarians March 22, 2007
  212. The Future of Media - ‘Media Nation’ A Presentation to the Toronto Association of Law Librarians March 22, 2007

+ rhyndmanrhyndman, 3 years ago

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