FASTNET Report: 0409RegHazeEvents04 Eastern US Regional Haze Events: Automated Detection and Documentation for 2004 Contributed by the FASNET Community, Sep. 2004 Correspondence: R Husar , R Poirot Coordination Support by Inter- RPO WG Fast Aerosol Sensing Tools for Natural Event Tracking, FASTNET NSF Collaboration Support for Aerosol Event Analysis NASA REASON Coop on EPA - OAQPS AIRNOW PM25 - February

Eastern US PM25 Events, 2004 A goal of the FASTNET project is to detect and document natural aerosol events in the context of the overall PM pattern In the past, the definition and documentation of events has been highly subjective and dependent on the analyst, the is event type etc. An objective event definition is now possible through spatio-temporal statistical parameters derivable from continuous monitoring data The AIRNOW and ASOS monitoring systems along with the proposed detection scheme now allows the real-time detection of PM25 events The routine overall characterization of detected events is accomplished by the rich additional real-time data through the FASTNET Analysts Consoles This work illustrates the routine event detection and cursory characterization of aerosol events for the Eastern US during Jan-Sep 2004; full event assessment requires detailed customized research

A goal of the FASTNET project is to detect and document natural aerosol events in the context of the overall PM pattern

In the past, the definition and documentation of events has been highly subjective and dependent on the analyst, the is event type etc.

An objective event definition is now possible through spatio-temporal statistical parameters derivable from continuous monitoring data

The AIRNOW and ASOS monitoring systems along with the proposed detection scheme now allows the real-time detection of PM25 events

The routine overall characterization of detected events is accomplished by the rich additional real-time data through the FASTNET Analysts Consoles

This work illustrates the routine event detection and cursory characterization of aerosol events for the Eastern US during Jan-Sep 2004; full event assessment requires detailed customized research

2004 EUS PM25 Event Detection The hourly AIRNOW PM25 values are averaged over the EUS The hourly average values are normalized by the median to derive relative concentrations A regional-scale event is declared when the hourly PM25 exceeds, say 1.6x the median During Jan-Sep 2004, seven major Eastern US PM25 events occurred: Feb 19, Mar 25, Apr 18, Jun 7-9, Jul 21-23, Aug 18, Sep 4

The hourly AIRNOW PM25 values are averaged over the EUS

The hourly average values are normalized by the median to derive relative concentrations

A regional-scale event is declared when the hourly PM25 exceeds, say 1.6x the median

During Jan-Sep 2004, seven major Eastern US PM25 events occurred: Feb 19, Mar 25, Apr 18, Jun 7-9, Jul 21-23, Aug 18, Sep 4

Region of Event Detection: Eastern US The event-detection metric uses the average concentration, C, over a region Whenever the instantaneous regional average exceeds the spatio-temporal median by a set value (say 2x), a regional event is declared For the ‘2004 FASTNET Events’ below, the entire Eastern US region is used; identifying events over smaller regions follows the same procedure.

The event-detection metric uses the average concentration, C, over a region

Whenever the instantaneous regional average exceeds the spatio-temporal median by a set value (say 2x), a regional event is declared

For the ‘2004 FASTNET Events’ below, the entire Eastern US region is used; identifying events over smaller regions follows the same procedure.

Analysts Consoles for Event Characterization Analysts consoles deliver the state of the aerosol, meteorology etc., automatically from real-time monitoring data Dozens of maps depict the spatial pattern using dozens of surface and satellite-detected parameters The temporal pattern are presented on time series for the regional average and for individual stations The following pages illustrate the 2004 EUS events, through a subset of the monitored parameters. The event-presentation includes limited interpretative comments; the full interpretation of this rich context is left to subsequent communal analysis Spatial Console Temporal Console

Analysts consoles deliver the state of the aerosol, meteorology etc., automatically from real-time monitoring data

Dozens of maps depict the spatial pattern using dozens of surface and satellite-detected parameters

The temporal pattern are presented on time series for the regional average and for individual stations

The following pages illustrate the 2004 EUS events, through a subset of the monitored parameters.

The event-presentation includes limited interpretative comments; the full interpretation of this rich context is left to subsequent communal analysis

Feb 19 2004: Isolated high PM25 occurs over the Midwest, Northeast and Texas The aerosol patches are evident in AIRNOWPM25, ASOS and Fbext maps The absence of TOMS signal indicates the lack of smoke or dust at high elevation The high surface wind speed over Texas, hints on possible dust storm activity The NAAPS model shows high sulfate over the Great Lakes, but no biomass smoke Possible event causes: nitrate in the Upper Midwest and Northeast, sulfate around the Great Lakes and dust over Texas

Isolated high PM25 occurs over the Midwest, Northeast and Texas

The aerosol patches are evident in AIRNOWPM25, ASOS and Fbext maps

The absence of TOMS signal indicates the lack of smoke or dust at high elevation

The high surface wind speed over Texas, hints on possible dust storm activity

The NAAPS model shows high sulfate over the Great Lakes, but no biomass smoke

Possible event causes: nitrate in the Upper Midwest and Northeast, sulfate around the Great Lakes and dust over Texas

Mar 25 Broad, contiguous AIRNOW PM25 belt covers the upper Midwest and the Northeast The ASOS is moderate throughout, while the surface FBExt is high over the U. Midwest The absence of TOMS signal indicates the lack of smoke or dust at high elevation The surface winds indicates war air transport from the Gulf to the U Midwest NAAPS shows high sulfate over the Great Lakes, but no biomass smoke or dust Possible causes: nitrate in the Upper Midwest and sulfate around the Great Lakes

Broad, contiguous AIRNOW PM25 belt covers the upper Midwest and the Northeast

The ASOS is moderate throughout, while the surface FBExt is high over the U. Midwest

The absence of TOMS signal indicates the lack of smoke or dust at high elevation

The surface winds indicates war air transport from the Gulf to the U Midwest

NAAPS shows high sulfate over the Great Lakes, but no biomass smoke or dust

Possible causes: nitrate in the Upper Midwest and sulfate around the Great Lakes

Apr 18 This modest episode stretches from Wisconsin over Pennsylvania to the Mid-Atlantic States The ASOS is high over the Great Lakes and the surface FBExt is high over the U. Midwest TOMS shows smoke(?) over Mexico; MODIS AOT is moderate over the Mid-Atlantic The surface winds indicate air transport from the Gulf to the Upper Midwest NAAPS model indicates high sulfate over Pennsylvania and smoke over the Midwest Possible causes: nitrate and smoke over the Midwest, in the and sulfate around the Great Lakes

This modest episode stretches from Wisconsin over Pennsylvania to the Mid-Atlantic States

The ASOS is high over the Great Lakes and the surface FBExt is high over the U. Midwest

TOMS shows smoke(?) over Mexico; MODIS AOT is moderate over the Mid-Atlantic

The surface winds indicate air transport from the Gulf to the Upper Midwest

NAAPS model indicates high sulfate over Pennsylvania and smoke over the Midwest

Possible causes: nitrate and smoke over the Midwest, in the and sulfate around the Great Lakes

Jun 6-8 This intensive 3-day episode covers much of the Eastern US The AIRNOW, ASOS and Visibility FBext are all elevated TOMS shows smoke(?) over the Gulf and Mexico; MODIS AOT over the Northeast The surface winds indicate stagnation over the EUS NAAPS model shows intense sulfate accumulation over the industrial Illinois-New York . Possible causes: sulfate episode

This intensive 3-day episode covers much of the Eastern US

The AIRNOW, ASOS and Visibility FBext are all elevated

TOMS shows smoke(?) over the Gulf and Mexico; MODIS AOT over the Northeast

The surface winds indicate stagnation over the EUS

NAAPS model shows intense sulfate accumulation over the industrial Illinois-New York .

Possible causes: sulfate episode

Jul 21-23 This intensive 3-day episode covers much of the Eastern US The AIRNOW, ASOS and Visibility FBext are all elevated Extremely high MODIS AOT and GASP AOT values cover the East Coast and Gulf Coast The surface winds indicate stagnation over much of the East Coast NAAPS model predicts elevated sulfate throughout the Eastern US. Possible causes: sulfate episode

This intensive 3-day episode covers much of the Eastern US

The AIRNOW, ASOS and Visibility FBext are all elevated

Extremely high MODIS AOT and GASP AOT values cover the East Coast and Gulf Coast

The surface winds indicate stagnation over much of the East Coast

NAAPS model predicts elevated sulfate throughout the Eastern US.

Possible causes: sulfate episode

Aug 18 This episode has an intensive region in the Northeast and another in the Southeastern US The AIRNOW, ASOS and Visibility all show similar location of elevated aerosol Highest MODIS AOT and GASP AOT values occur over the Northeast The surface winds indicate stagnation over the southeastern EUS NAAPS model predicts high sulfate in the Northeast and biomass smoke over the Southeast Possible causes: sulfate episode in the Northeast, smoke and sulfate in the Southeast(?)

This episode has an intensive region in the Northeast and another in the Southeastern US

The AIRNOW, ASOS and Visibility all show similar location of elevated aerosol

Highest MODIS AOT and GASP AOT values occur over the Northeast

The surface winds indicate stagnation over the southeastern EUS

NAAPS model predicts high sulfate in the Northeast and biomass smoke over the Southeast

Possible causes: sulfate episode in the Northeast, smoke and sulfate in the Southeast(?)

Sep 4 A single strong aerosol ‘blob’ cover the Midwest The AIRNOW PM25, ASOS and Fbext maps all show a consistent spatial pattern The MODIS AOT confirms the Midwestern haze; the GASP AOT peaks further south The surface winds are low over much of the EUS NAAPS model also predicts a sulfate ‘blob’ over the Midwest without significant smoke or dust Possible causes: sulfate episode from stagnation over the source region

A single strong aerosol ‘blob’ cover the Midwest

The AIRNOW PM25, ASOS and Fbext maps all show a consistent spatial pattern

The MODIS AOT confirms the Midwestern haze; the GASP AOT peaks further south

The surface winds are low over much of the EUS

NAAPS model also predicts a sulfate ‘blob’ over the Midwest without significant smoke or dust

Possible causes: sulfate episode from stagnation over the source region

Discussion: The Role of Averaging Region The size and location of the region strongly influences the event-detection; e.g. events in the Northeast occur at different times than Southwestern events. ‘ EUS events’ can occur either from a single contiguous ‘haze blob’ or from multiple smaller aerosol patches at different parts of the Eastern US It would be desirable to develop a detection scheme that can identify events regardless of geographic size, location or duration One possible time metric would be the integral of ‘bulges’ over space and time

The size and location of the region strongly influences the event-detection; e.g. events in the Northeast occur at different times than Southwestern events.

‘ EUS events’ can occur either from a single contiguous ‘haze blob’ or from multiple smaller aerosol patches at different parts of the Eastern US

It would be desirable to develop a detection scheme that can identify events regardless of geographic size, location or duration

One possible time metric would be the integral of ‘bulges’ over space and time

Application of Automatic Event Detection: A Trigger and Screening Tool The algorithmic aerosol detection and characterization provides only limited information about events However, it can be used to trigger further action during real-time monitoring of events Also, automatic event quantification can be used as a screening tool for the further analysis of qualified events, e.g. the selection of ‘natural events’ from the total event pool

The algorithmic aerosol detection and characterization provides only limited information about events

However, it can be used to trigger further action during real-time monitoring of events

Also, automatic event quantification can be used as a screening tool for the further analysis of qualified events, e.g. the selection of ‘natural events’ from the total event pool