Global and Local Dust/Smoke over the US Rudolf Husar Washington University EPA Science Advisory Board Science Workshop, Dc. 11, 2003 Emerging Scientific Topics: Transboundary Air Pollutants

Local, Regional, Global Pollution Before 1950s: Local Smoke, Fly ash Post- 2000s: Global Global Change 1970s-1990s: Regional Acid Rain, Haze

Before 1950s:

Local

Smoke, Fly ash

Post- 2000s:

Global

Global Change

Industrial Sulfur Emission Density US SO x Emission Trend Industrial Sulfur Emissions Hotspots: E. North America Europe and E. Asia The US and European S Emissions have declined since the ’70s Within the next generation S will likely approach the natural levels

Regional Haze Rule: Transition Toward a Sustainable Air Quality Goal of RH Rule: To attain ‘natural conditions’ by 2064

Global Pollution Windblown Dust Industrial Aerosols Major Scientific Issues: What is the Natural Condition? How do manmade and natural emissions compare now? How do humans perturb natural processes? Biomass Smoke Main ‘Global’ Air Pollutants: Particulate Matter: Dust, Smoke, Haze Ozone and Precursors Steady, Seasonal Sporadic, Seasonal

Main ‘Global’ Air Pollutants:

Particulate Matter: Dust, Smoke, Haze

Ozone and Precursors

Global (Satellite) Sensing Revolution in the 1990s Aerosol Optical Depth (AVHRR) Global-scale air pollutant transport existed since…. The difference is that now we can observe and document it The new data show that the global aerosol pattern is dominated by dust and smoke .

Global Fire Locations August, January

Global Fire Locations August, January

May 15, 1998 Smoke from Central American Fires Smoke is detected by SeaWiFS and TOMS (green) satellites and surface visibility data, Bext The smoke plume extends from Guatemala to Hudson May in Canada

Smoke is detected by SeaWiFS and TOMS (green) satellites and surface visibility data, Bext

The smoke plume extends from Guatemala to Hudson May in Canada

PM10 Concentrations During the Smoke Event A füstfelhő útjában mindehol a megengedett érték feletti aeroszol koncentrációt okozott, és a levegő homályossága gátolta a légiforgalmat

A füstfelhő útjában mindehol a megengedett érték feletti aeroszol koncentrációt okozott, és a levegő homályossága gátolta a légiforgalmat

May-June 2003 Siberian Fires

Aircraft Detection of Siberian Forrest Smoke near Seattle, WA Jaffe et. al., 2003

Asian Dust Cloud over N. America, April 1998 On April 27, 1998 the dust cloud arrived in North America. Regional average PM10 concentrations increased to 65  g/m 3 In Washington State, PM10 concentrations exceeded 100  g/m 3 Asian Dust 100  g/m 3 Hourly PM10

Korea Mongolia China The Perfect Dust Storm April 7, 2001

Sahara Dust Transport Supporting Evidence: Satellite & PM10 Data SeaWiFS satellite shows Sahara Dust reaching Gulf of Mexico June 30, 1993 July 5, 1992 June 21 1997 > 80  g/m 3

Origin of Fine Dust Events over the US Sulfate is local, no major spikes Gobi dust transport in spring Sahara dust import in summer Spikes of fine dust over the entire US are mainly from intercontinental transport T he Perfect Dust Storm

Sulfate is local, no major spikes

Summary Global Sensing – Modeling Revolution – ‘May you live in interesting times’ We are in the midst of an observational revolution (satellites, monitoring networks). The global distribution and transport of some pollutants can be monitored daily Global models are also maturing into effective analytical and predictive tools Results to Date: Compelling evidence for significant global-scale transport of PM and Ozone Qualitative estimates of ‘extra-jurisdictional’ impact on the US air quality There is good potential for quantification of natural and non-US impacts The science community is vigorously pursuing global pollutant transport It seems timely to incorporate global air pollutant transport into AQ management processes as well

Global Sensing – Modeling Revolution – ‘May you live in interesting times’

We are in the midst of an observational revolution (satellites, monitoring networks).

The global distribution and transport of some pollutants can be monitored daily

Global models are also maturing into effective analytical and predictive tools

Results to Date:

Compelling evidence for significant global-scale transport of PM and Ozone

Qualitative estimates of ‘extra-jurisdictional’ impact on the US air quality

There is good potential for quantification of natural and non-US impacts

The science community is vigorously pursuing global pollutant transport

It seems timely to incorporate global air pollutant transport into AQ management processes as well

Thank You

Sustainable Development in an ever-changing world: Sensory-Motor Loop: Challenge 21: Science – Management Link Sensing and recognition (monitoring) Reasoning and explaining (sciences) Decision making, action (management)

Sahara and Local Dust Apportionment The maximum annual Sahara dust contribution is about 1  g.m 3 In July the Sahara dust contributions are 4-8  g.m 3 Annual July

The maximum annual Sahara dust contribution is about 1  g.m 3

In July the Sahara dust contributions are 4-8  g.m 3

Vertical Distribution of Aerosols – Space-borne Lidar Long rang transport occurs mostly in elevated layers Elevated layers mix with BL air Cloud interaction is clearly discernable Winker et., al. 1995

Long rang transport occurs mostly in elevated layers

Elevated layers mix with BL air

Cloud interaction is clearly discernable