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What will we discuss…?

                    The ‘[Spatial] Social Revolution’

                       …a state of the discipline talk;

     Geography…but, how did things get so bad?

                  The ‘Classic Debate in Geography’




                                   Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
SocSci vs. Spatial SocSci
Social Science                              Spatial Social Science
Individual Observation                      Observations in space
Random sample                               Entire population
Normally distributed                        Spatially dependent - skewed distribution

Independent Observations                    Dependent observations
Little or No contextual information         Contextual information
Individual level analysis                   Aggregate analysis or multi-level
                                            analysis
Examples                                    Examples
Survey analysis of voting behavior          Ecological analysis of voting behavior

Individual responses on neighborhood        Actual residential decisions
choice
Methodological approach                     Methodological approach
Multivariate linear regression or           Spatial regression (SAR, CAR & GWR)
ethnographies
                                      Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Spatial Social Science




                           Crisis in Geography




                                 Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Crisis in Geography (1940’s & 1950’s)
    The crisis occurred for several reasons:


    The closing of many geography departments and courses in universities e.g.
    the abolition of the geography program at Harvard University in 1948. [1]


    Continuing division between Human and Physical geography - general talk of
    Human geography becoming an autonomous subject. [2]


    Geography was seen as overly descriptive and unscientific- there was, it was
    claimed, no explanation of why processes or phenomena occurred [3]


    Geography was seen as exclusively educational - there were few if any
    applications of contemporary geography


    After World War II technology became increasingly important in society and as
    a result nomothetic based sciences gained popularity and prominence [4]


                                     Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Crisis in Geography (1940’s & 1950’s)



            In 1982, Jean Gottmann called the
              elimination, "a terrible blow…to
            American geography" and one from
              which "it has never completely
                        recovered."



                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
What was wrong with Geography?
    Geography had a number of problems, including:


    1. It was overly descriptive
    	     Geography followed a set format for the inventory of physical and
    cultural features
    2. It was almost purely educational
    	     Regions don't really exist
    3. It failed to explain geographic patterns
    	   Geography was descriptive and did not explain why patterns
    were the way they were
    	   Where attempts at explanation did exist, they favored historical
    approaches
    4. The biggest problem of geography was the fact that it was
    unscientific
    
    …the Nomothetic & Idiographic debate in geography begins!

                                  Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Advanced Placement Human Geography


   This college-level course introduces                   Score     Percent
   students to the systematic study of patterns           5         11.6%
   and processes that have shaped human
   understanding, use, and alteration of Earth's          4         16.7%
   surface. Students employ spatial concepts
                                                          3         21.9%
   and landscape analyses to analyze human
   social organization and its environmental              2         16.6%
   consequences. They also learn about the
   methods and tools geographers use in their             1         33.2%
   science and practice.
                                                          In the 2009
                                                          administration, 50,730
                                                          students took the exam
                                                          and the mean score
                                 Richard Heimann © 2013
                                                          was a 2.57.
Thursday, January 31, 13
Human Geography




                                Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Human Geography




                                                         http://www.benjaminbarber.com/bio.html


                                Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Human Geography




                                Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Words of Wisdom…

“…the alternative to good statistics is not “no statistics,”
 it’s bad statistics. People who argue against statistical
reasoning often end up backing up their arguments with
whatever numbers they have at their command, over- or
  under-adjusting in their eagerness to avoid anything
                   systematic” Bill James




                                 Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
How bad was it…


    Chapman 1977: Geography has consistently &
              dismally failed to tackle its
    entitative problems...the root of so many of its
                      problems.




                                Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Geography wakes up!!



    All of these events presented a great threat
      to geography’s position as an academic
    subject and thus geographers began seeking
      new methods to counter critique. …the
            quantitative revolution begins.



                            Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
The Quantitative Revolution
    The revolution led to an increased use of computerized
    statistical techniques in all sciences as well as computer
    mapping and spatial statistics in geography.


    Some of the techniques of the revolution included:
     Spatial statistics
     Geographic Information Systems
    New & Improved research methods for geography(ers)
    Basic mathematical equations and models, such as gravity
    models and agent based modeling and later spatial
    econometrics (among other techniques).
    Stochastic models using concepts of probability



                                Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
…the Revolution Continues!
    In 1964, Howard T Fisher formed the Laboratory
    for Computer Graphics and Spatial Analysis at the
    Harvard Graduate School of Design (LCGSA
    1965-1991), where a number of important
    theoretical concepts in spatial data handling were
    developed, and which by the 1970s had distributed
    seminal software code and systems, such as
    'SYMAP', 'GRID', and 'ODYSSEY' -- which served as
    literal and inspirational sources for subsequent
    commercial development.
    By the early 1980s, M&S Computing (later
    Intergraph), Environmental Systems Research
    Institute (ESRI), CARIS (Computer Aided Resource
    Information System) and ERDAS emerged as
    commercial vendors of GIS software, successfully
    incorporating many of the CGIS features, combining
    the first generation approach to separation of
    spatial and attribute information with a second
    generation approach to organizing attribute data
    into database structures.
                                  Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Spatial ‘Turn’ in the Social Sciences…
The category of space long played a subordinate role in sociological
theory formation. Only in the late 1980s did it come to be realized that
certain changes in society cannot be adequately explained without taking
greater account of the spatial components of life. This shift in perspective
was referred to as the topological turn and now more commonly as the
spatial turn. The space concept directs attention to organizational forms
of juxtaposition. The focus is on differences between places and their
mutual influence. This applies equally for the micro-spaces of everyday
life and the macro-spaces at the nation-state or global levels.

The theoretical basis for the growing interest of the social sciences in
space was set primarily by sociologists, philosophers, and human
geographers…and begins to solve the ‘classic debate’ in geography.



                                 Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Spatial ‘Turn’ in the Social Sciences…




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Spatial Social Science

    In 1998, the National Science Foundation undertook a
    program designed to develop the infrastructure for social
    science research. In the first round of competition one of the
    outstanding proposals was for a Center for Spatially
    Integrated Social Science (CSISS), submitted by the
    University of California, Santa Barbara, with Professor
    Michael Goodchild as the Principle Investigator. CSISS was to
    develop new computational and analytic tools for spatial data,
    facilitate the development of social science data achieves
    based on geographic data, train scientists in the use of the
    most advanced tools, and foster the development of the
    emerging community of social scientists who integrate spatial
    data into their research.


                                   Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Spatial Social Science
    Do spatial perspectives draw on and contribute to
    theory in the social sciences?

    Why should social scientists accept that variance
    across space really matters?

    What structures in the social sciences have
    emerged in support of spatial analysis/thinking?

    Is there a community of spatial social science and
    can its growth be measured?

                             Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Building on the numbers…
    $30 billion industry (U.S. Labor Department)


    Robert M. Gates in September 2007 authorized a $40 million
    expansion of the program


    Significant NSF Funding (e.g. CSISS)


    Demand for Spatial Analysis expertise in social sciences:


    Growing volume of social science research in GIS, Spatial Statistics &
    Spatial Analysis (Changing academic landscape)


    Similar (to CSISS) programs being developed at Brown, Harvard, &
    Arizona State University


                                    Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Building on the numbers...




                           http://www.ocpe.gmu.edu/programs/gis/human_terrain.php


                                                      Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Building on the numbers...




                           http://humanterrainsystem.army.mil/Default.aspx




                                                               Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Building on the numbers...




                                                http://geodacenter.asu.edu/




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Building on the numbers...




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Building on the numbers...




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Building on the numbers...




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Building on the numbers...

    Citations using GeoDa increased from 42 in 2004
    to 70 in 2007-08 and to 567 in 2009-10

    ESRI introduces regression tools at v 9.3,
    including Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR)

    GeoDa with more than 85,000 downloads (Jan.
    2013)



                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Building on the numbers....




      GeoDa with more than 85,000 downloads (Jan. 2013)

                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Building on the numbers....




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Building on the numbers...




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Building on the numbers...




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Building on the numbers...
             Spatial Demography (1990-2003) 3yr rolling average




                           21% increase




                                          Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Building on the numbers...
                                                                        Attended   Applied
      Anthropology / Archaeology                                        59         123
      Criminology                                                       21         45
      Demography, Population & Health                                   98         227
      Economics                                                         63         192
      Environmental Studies                                             18         33
      Epidemiology                                                      11         27
      GIS                                                               30         75
      History                                                           7          10
      Human Geography                                                   123        422
      Political Science                                                 55         95
      Public Policy                                                     17         80
      Regional Science                                                  5          6
      Sociology                                                         115        200
      Statistics                                                        9          22
      Urban Studies & Urban Planning                                    44         133
      Other                                                             31         99
      Totals:                                                           706        1789

                                         Non - Geography Ratio:
                                        N= 553 (Attended) 69.2%
                                        N = 1292 (Applied) 60.5%

                                        CSISS Residential Workshops (2000-2007)
                                                    Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Classical Examples…



      Spatial Social Science before it was Spatial
      Social Science, before it was Spatial Social
                        Science.




                              Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Mapping the Human Terrain…
                                                       Here the
                                                       different
                                                     Tribes meet
                                                    in Friendship
                                                     and collect
                                                      Stone for
                                                        Pipes.




                                                     Yanktons a
                                                      Band of
                                                    Sioux - 1000
                                                       Souls
                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Dr. Snow maps cholera in Soho




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
F. Ratzel, C. Wissler, & C. Sauer: Culture Area




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Henry Mayhew: London Labor & London Poor




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
André-Michel Guerry’s (1833) Essai sur la Statistique Morale de la
                           France




                            Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
André-Michel Guerry’s (1833) Essai sur la Statistique Morale de la
                           France




                            Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
André-Michel Guerry’s (1833) Essai sur la Statistique Morale de la
                           France




                            Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Charles Joseph Minard: Mapping Napoleon's March (1861)




                           Minard Map - French Invasion of Russia http://www.khanacademy.org/video/french-invasion-of-russia?playlist=History




                                                                       Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Maps Descriptive of London Poverty (1899)




    “No. 34 is occupied by the widow of a boatman. He committed suicide and left her with eleven children.
    Some have died, and she has five here now, two of whom go to work, and three to school. She makes
    sailor jackets, but is nearly blind. Struggles hard for her children…”
                                               Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Slums of the Great Cities Survey Maps, Florence Kelley




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Ellen Semple: The Anglo-Saxons of the Kentucky Mountains
                             (1901)




                            Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Contemporary Examples…




 ‘Spatial’ turn in the Social Sciences…as we
know it today following the ‘Social’ turn in the
             DoD, IC, and Big Data.




                            Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Mapping the Human Terrain…




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Mapping the Human Terrain…




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Mapping the Human Terrain…




                                  The Geography of the Nazi
                                  Vote: Context, Confession,
                                  and Class in the Reichstag
                                  Election of 1930 Author(s):
                                  John O'Loughlin, Colin
                                  Flint, Luc Anselin Source:
                                  Annals of the Association
                                  of American Geographers
                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Mapping the Human Terrain…




                                                         LISA Maps for St. Louis Region
                                                         Homicide Rates, 1984-88 (left)
       SPATIAL ANALYSES OF HOMICIDE                      and 1988-93 (right). Counties
       WITH AREAL DATA                                   with significant Local Moran
       Steven F. Messner & Luc Anselin
                                                         statistics are highlighted by the
                                                         type of spatial association.
                                         Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Mapping the Human Terrain…




                                  STRUCTURAL COVARIATES OF U.S. COUNTY
                                  HOMICIDE RATES: INCORPORATING SPATIAL
                                  EFFECTS*
                                  ROBERT D. BALLER

                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
The Spatial Turn...
Paul Krugman loosely defines economic geography as the
study of economic issues in which location matters. Economic
theory usually assumes away distance. Krugman argues that
it is time to put it back - that the location of production in
space is a key issue both within and between nations.




                                  Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
The Spatial Turn...
Paul Krugman loosely defines economic geography as the
study of economic issues in which location matters. Economic
theory usually assumes away distance. Krugman argues that
it is time to put it back - that the location of production in
space is a key issue both within and between nations.



     New Economic Geography implies that instead of
         spreading out evenly around the world,
       production will tend to concentrate in a few
      countries, regions, or cities, which will become
     densely populated but will also have higher levels
                        of income.



                                  Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
David Harvey – Spatial Fix
Harvey developed the idea of spatial fix and the second the idea of
accumulation by dispossession.

 The spatial fix consists in the geographical
 expansions and restructurings used as temporary
 solutions to over accumulation crises. As Harvey
 points out, spatial fixes are available even in a
 world that is more or less fully incorporated in
 capitalism. Spatial fixes make use of geographical
 unevenness, but unevenness is not simply a
 product of "underdevelopment". Capitalism
 produces its own unevenness, often plunging
 already “developed” regions into destructive
 devaluations. The idea implied here is that
 processes of primitive accumulation are turned
 not only against the remaining few non-capitalist
 formations but also against parts of capitalism
 itself.

                                 Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
David Harvey – Spatial Fix




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
David Harvey – Spatio-Temporal Fix




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
David Harvey – Spatio-Temporal Fix
Harvey has deployed a complex conceptual apparatus, the center-piece of
which is the notion of spatio-temporal fix. In his argument, the term “fix”
has a double meaning.


A certain portion of the total capital is literally
fixed in and on the land in some physical form
for a relatively long period of time (depending on
its economic and physical lifetime). Likewise,
Social expenditures (such as public education or
a health-care system) also become
territorialized and rendered geographically
immobile through state commitments. The
spatio-temporal ‘fix’, on the other hand, is a
metaphor for a particular kind of solution to
capitalist crises through temporal deferral and
geographical expansion. (2003: 115)

                                 Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
The Spatial Turn...
Paul Collier in his book The Bottom Billion argues that being landlocked in a
poor geographic neighborhood is one of four major development "traps" that a
country can be held back by. In general, he found that when a neighboring
country experiences better growth, it tends to spill over into favorable
development for the country itself. For landlocked countries, the effect is
particularly strong, as they are limited from their trading activity with the
rest of the world. "If you are coastal, you serve the world; if you are
landlocked, you serve your neighbors.”




                                  Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
The Spatial Turn...
In The Truly Disadvantaged: The Inner City, the Underclass, and Public Policy
(1987), William Julius Wilson was an early exponent, one of the first to
enunciate at length the spatial mismatch theory for the development of a
ghetto underclass in the United States. Spatial mismatch is the sociological,
economic and political phenomenon associated with economic restructuring
in which employment opportunities for low-income people are located far
away from the areas where they live.




                                  Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Spatial Social Science




                           Questions??


                               Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
What will we discuss…?


                      Laws of Spatial Social Science!!

    …what are they and why are they important?

   …how do we begin to measure and quantify the
             existence of such laws?




                                  Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
The value of Laws
                                Teaching

        Laws allow courses to be structured from
                    first principles

              Laws provide the basis for predicting
              performance, making design choices

             An asset of a strong, robust discipline

                                 Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Analogy to Statistics

    Statistical Packages




    GIS




                               Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Analogy to Statistics

    Statistical Packages                                Statistics




    GIS




                               Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Analogy to Statistics

    Statistical Packages                                    Statistics




    GIS                                                 X




                               Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Are Laws of Social Science…

    Deterministic?

    Does a counterexample defeat a law?

    Empirical statements?

    Verifiable with respect to the real world?

    Do the Social Sciences have Physics Envy?
                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Candidate for the First Law of


         Can there be laws in the social sciences?

    Ernest Rutherford: “The only result that can
    possibly be obtained in the social sciences is:
              some do, and some don’t”



                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Social Science Laws can be:



      Anyon (1982): social science should be
       empirically grounded, theoretically
        explanatory and socially critical.




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Social Science Laws ought to be
       Anyon (1982): [T]hat one collects data and uses it to
     build one's explanations. Ideally one's explanations are
     related to the data in that they emerge from it. Yet, they
         attempt to explain it by recourse to categorically
      different types of constructs: not by other data [...] (p.
                                 35)

       It is not sufficient to 'explain' patterns in data using a
       method that was designed to define patterns in data.

       Are SISS patterns socially or statistically significant?


                              Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Social Science Laws ought to be

     Anyon (1982): [T]hat one does not rely, for
       one's reasons for things, on empirically
     descriptive regularities or generalizations,
     or on deductions or inferences there from
    one's theory must be socially explanatory. It
        must situate social data in a theory of
                   society. (p.35)

                           still theory-poor


                               Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Social Science Laws ought to be

        Anyon (1982): To be critical will mean,
     then, to go beyond the dominant ideology or
      ideologies, in one's attempt to explain the
       social world. To be critical is to challenge
         social legitimations, and fundamental
      structures [...] to seek to explicate, and to
        seek to eliminate structurally induced
        exploitation and social pain. (pp. 35-6)



                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Social Science Laws can be:
                                Based on empirical observation

                                 Observed to be generally true

                           Sufficient generality to be useful as a norm

                     Deviations from the law should be interesting


                 Dealing with geographic process rather than form


                           Understanding of social process in context


     …the Nomothetic & Idiographic debate in geography is solved!!

                                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Tobler’s First Law of Geography

      TFLG: “All things are related, but nearby
    things are more related than distant things”



       W.R.Tobler, 1970. A computer movie simulating
        urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic
                   Geography 46: 234-240



                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Tobler’s First Law of Geography




                                        Teenage Birth Rates – US.




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Tobler’s First Law of Geography




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Tobler’s First Law of Geography




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Tobler’s First Law of Geography




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Tobler’s First Law of Geography




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
If TFLG weren’t true…
                           GIS would be impossible




                           Life would be impossible


                                   Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Tobler’s First Law of Geography




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
A Second (first) Law of




                            Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
A Second (first) Law of




                            Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
A Second (first) Law of


                      Globalization is thought of a homogenizing
                      the world, but it cannot and will not happen.
                      The underlying processes that drive these
                      systems both look for unevenness and
                      produce unevenness. Homogeneous processes
                      cannot happen, which necessitate the
                      development of methods to describe the
                      unevenness and account for it when
                      describing process.




                                        Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Practical implications of Second

    …a state is not a sample of the nation
   …a country is not a sample of the world




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Practical implications of Second
    …no average person or place.




                                                      With the global
                                                        population
                                                    distribution being
                                                     ~50% male and
                                                       ~50% female
                                                    would the average
                                                     be a person with
                                                      one uterus and
                                                        one testis?


                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
A Second (first?) Law of
     TFLG describes a second-order effect (Properties of places
                       taken two at a time)



                  …is there a law of places taken one at a time?




                                    Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
A Second (first?) Law of
     TFLG describes a second-order effect (Properties of places
                       taken two at a time)



                  …is there a law of places taken one at a time?




                           Yes, its named Spatial heterogeneity




                                        Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
A (Unofficial) Second (first) Law




        LISA MAP | Crime Columbus, OH             BOX MAP | Crime Columbus, OH

                                  Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
A Second (first) Law of
      The geography of the 2004 US presidential election results (48
                           contiguous states)




 Spatial heterogeneity
   Non-stationarity / Regional Variation
   Uncontrolled variance / Equilibrium



                                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
A Second (first) Law of




                                         Total Fertility Rate – US.




                            Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Implications of Second (first)



  Stationarity                             Extreme Heterogeneity

  Single Equilibria: A                     Multiple Equilibrium: One
  singular process over                    process for every observation
  space and across study                   over space.
  area.




                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Candidate Laws

     By adding demographics to Tobler’s law we
         can define as the first law of Spatial
                    Demographics:
    “…people who live in the same neighborhood
      are more similar than those who live in a
    different neighborhood, but they may be just
            as similar to people in another
          neighborhood in a different place.”


                                Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Candidate Laws
    All important places are at the corners of
    four map sheets [1],[2]




                                Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Candidate Laws


    Montello and Fabrikant, “The First Law
           of Cognitive Geography”

        “People think closer things are more
                      similar”



                                Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Cognitive Geography




                              Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Cognitive Geography




                              Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Cognitive Geography




                              Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Cognitive Geography




                              Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Candidate Laws


           Fractal principle: that geographic
        phenomena reveal more detail the more
        closely one looks; and that this process
       reveals additional detail at an orderly and
         predictable rate (Goodchild and Mark,
               1987; Mandelbrot, 1982).



                                Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Candidate Laws
      Fractal principle: that geographic phenomena
      reveal more detail the more closely one looks;
      and that this process reveals additional detail
      at an orderly and predictable rate (Goodchild
          and Mark, 1987; Mandelbrot, 1982).




                                Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
The Noah effect


       …describes discontinuity. Mandelbrot
    found that when something changes, it can
      change abruptly. For example, a stock
    priced at $40 a share can quickly fall to $5
    without ever being priced at $30 or $20, if
    something significant triggers its collapse.



                                Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
The Joseph effect
    …describes persistence: i.e. trends tend to persist; that
    is, if a place has been suffering drought, it's likely it
    will suffer more of the same. In other words, things
    tend to stay the way they've been recently.

    Healthy people tend to stay healthy;

    Winning teams tend to keep on winning; and,

    Products that have been successful for the past five
    years will probably be successful next month.


                                 Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
SISS… Conclusions (Finally).

    Laws do exist in Geography …but need to be stated.

    Generalizations about the geographic world can be
    blindingly obvious …but stating them is important.

    Laws have practical value in GIS and Social Science.

    Laws have more than just pedagogic value.



                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Where are we now with the
    …SISS help(s) to resolve the timeless dilemma in
    geography about whether to focus on the local (L) or
    the global (G) – whether spatial science should be
    idiographic or nomothetic. As [Phillips] suggests in
    his discussion of L and G, there is increasing
    sympathy in many disciplines, including geography,
    for a middle position in which the specific details of
    law-like statements are allowed to vary
    geographically. Recent contributions to the tools of
    such as Geographically Weighted Regression now
    provide the techniques to implement this interesting
    methodological position.

                           Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13
Spatial Social Science

                           Questions??

                         Rich Heimann
                   heimann.richard@gmail.com
                   rheimann@data-tactics.com
                      rheimann@umbc.edu
                       Twitter: @rheimann


                              Richard Heimann © 2013

Thursday, January 31, 13

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Week 1 Lecture @ UMBC

  • 1. What will we discuss…? The ‘[Spatial] Social Revolution’ …a state of the discipline talk; Geography…but, how did things get so bad? The ‘Classic Debate in Geography’ Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 2. SocSci vs. Spatial SocSci Social Science Spatial Social Science Individual Observation Observations in space Random sample Entire population Normally distributed Spatially dependent - skewed distribution Independent Observations Dependent observations Little or No contextual information Contextual information Individual level analysis Aggregate analysis or multi-level analysis Examples Examples Survey analysis of voting behavior Ecological analysis of voting behavior Individual responses on neighborhood Actual residential decisions choice Methodological approach Methodological approach Multivariate linear regression or Spatial regression (SAR, CAR & GWR) ethnographies Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 3. Spatial Social Science Crisis in Geography Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 4. Crisis in Geography (1940’s & 1950’s) The crisis occurred for several reasons: The closing of many geography departments and courses in universities e.g. the abolition of the geography program at Harvard University in 1948. [1] Continuing division between Human and Physical geography - general talk of Human geography becoming an autonomous subject. [2] Geography was seen as overly descriptive and unscientific- there was, it was claimed, no explanation of why processes or phenomena occurred [3] Geography was seen as exclusively educational - there were few if any applications of contemporary geography After World War II technology became increasingly important in society and as a result nomothetic based sciences gained popularity and prominence [4] Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 5. Crisis in Geography (1940’s & 1950’s) In 1982, Jean Gottmann called the elimination, "a terrible blow…to American geography" and one from which "it has never completely recovered." Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 6. What was wrong with Geography? Geography had a number of problems, including: 1. It was overly descriptive Geography followed a set format for the inventory of physical and cultural features 2. It was almost purely educational Regions don't really exist 3. It failed to explain geographic patterns Geography was descriptive and did not explain why patterns were the way they were Where attempts at explanation did exist, they favored historical approaches 4. The biggest problem of geography was the fact that it was unscientific …the Nomothetic & Idiographic debate in geography begins! Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 7. Advanced Placement Human Geography This college-level course introduces Score Percent students to the systematic study of patterns 5 11.6% and processes that have shaped human understanding, use, and alteration of Earth's 4 16.7% surface. Students employ spatial concepts 3 21.9% and landscape analyses to analyze human social organization and its environmental 2 16.6% consequences. They also learn about the methods and tools geographers use in their 1 33.2% science and practice. In the 2009 administration, 50,730 students took the exam and the mean score Richard Heimann © 2013 was a 2.57. Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 8. Human Geography Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 9. Human Geography http://www.benjaminbarber.com/bio.html Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 10. Human Geography Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 11. Words of Wisdom… “…the alternative to good statistics is not “no statistics,” it’s bad statistics. People who argue against statistical reasoning often end up backing up their arguments with whatever numbers they have at their command, over- or under-adjusting in their eagerness to avoid anything systematic” Bill James Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 12. How bad was it… Chapman 1977: Geography has consistently & dismally failed to tackle its entitative problems...the root of so many of its problems. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 13. Geography wakes up!! All of these events presented a great threat to geography’s position as an academic subject and thus geographers began seeking new methods to counter critique. …the quantitative revolution begins. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 14. The Quantitative Revolution The revolution led to an increased use of computerized statistical techniques in all sciences as well as computer mapping and spatial statistics in geography. Some of the techniques of the revolution included: Spatial statistics Geographic Information Systems New & Improved research methods for geography(ers) Basic mathematical equations and models, such as gravity models and agent based modeling and later spatial econometrics (among other techniques). Stochastic models using concepts of probability Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 15. …the Revolution Continues! In 1964, Howard T Fisher formed the Laboratory for Computer Graphics and Spatial Analysis at the Harvard Graduate School of Design (LCGSA 1965-1991), where a number of important theoretical concepts in spatial data handling were developed, and which by the 1970s had distributed seminal software code and systems, such as 'SYMAP', 'GRID', and 'ODYSSEY' -- which served as literal and inspirational sources for subsequent commercial development. By the early 1980s, M&S Computing (later Intergraph), Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), CARIS (Computer Aided Resource Information System) and ERDAS emerged as commercial vendors of GIS software, successfully incorporating many of the CGIS features, combining the first generation approach to separation of spatial and attribute information with a second generation approach to organizing attribute data into database structures. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 16. Spatial ‘Turn’ in the Social Sciences… The category of space long played a subordinate role in sociological theory formation. Only in the late 1980s did it come to be realized that certain changes in society cannot be adequately explained without taking greater account of the spatial components of life. This shift in perspective was referred to as the topological turn and now more commonly as the spatial turn. The space concept directs attention to organizational forms of juxtaposition. The focus is on differences between places and their mutual influence. This applies equally for the micro-spaces of everyday life and the macro-spaces at the nation-state or global levels. The theoretical basis for the growing interest of the social sciences in space was set primarily by sociologists, philosophers, and human geographers…and begins to solve the ‘classic debate’ in geography. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 17. Spatial ‘Turn’ in the Social Sciences… Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 18. Spatial Social Science In 1998, the National Science Foundation undertook a program designed to develop the infrastructure for social science research. In the first round of competition one of the outstanding proposals was for a Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science (CSISS), submitted by the University of California, Santa Barbara, with Professor Michael Goodchild as the Principle Investigator. CSISS was to develop new computational and analytic tools for spatial data, facilitate the development of social science data achieves based on geographic data, train scientists in the use of the most advanced tools, and foster the development of the emerging community of social scientists who integrate spatial data into their research. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 19. Spatial Social Science Do spatial perspectives draw on and contribute to theory in the social sciences? Why should social scientists accept that variance across space really matters? What structures in the social sciences have emerged in support of spatial analysis/thinking? Is there a community of spatial social science and can its growth be measured? Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 20. Building on the numbers… $30 billion industry (U.S. Labor Department) Robert M. Gates in September 2007 authorized a $40 million expansion of the program Significant NSF Funding (e.g. CSISS) Demand for Spatial Analysis expertise in social sciences: Growing volume of social science research in GIS, Spatial Statistics & Spatial Analysis (Changing academic landscape) Similar (to CSISS) programs being developed at Brown, Harvard, & Arizona State University Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 21. Building on the numbers... http://www.ocpe.gmu.edu/programs/gis/human_terrain.php Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 22. Building on the numbers... http://humanterrainsystem.army.mil/Default.aspx Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 23. Building on the numbers... http://geodacenter.asu.edu/ Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 24. Building on the numbers... Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 25. Building on the numbers... Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 26. Building on the numbers... Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 27. Building on the numbers... Citations using GeoDa increased from 42 in 2004 to 70 in 2007-08 and to 567 in 2009-10 ESRI introduces regression tools at v 9.3, including Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR) GeoDa with more than 85,000 downloads (Jan. 2013) Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 28. Building on the numbers.... GeoDa with more than 85,000 downloads (Jan. 2013) Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 29. Building on the numbers.... Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 30. Building on the numbers... Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 31. Building on the numbers... Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 32. Building on the numbers... Spatial Demography (1990-2003) 3yr rolling average 21% increase Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 33. Building on the numbers... Attended Applied Anthropology / Archaeology 59 123 Criminology 21 45 Demography, Population & Health 98 227 Economics 63 192 Environmental Studies 18 33 Epidemiology 11 27 GIS 30 75 History 7 10 Human Geography 123 422 Political Science 55 95 Public Policy 17 80 Regional Science 5 6 Sociology 115 200 Statistics 9 22 Urban Studies & Urban Planning 44 133 Other 31 99 Totals: 706 1789 Non - Geography Ratio: N= 553 (Attended) 69.2% N = 1292 (Applied) 60.5% CSISS Residential Workshops (2000-2007) Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 34. Classical Examples… Spatial Social Science before it was Spatial Social Science, before it was Spatial Social Science. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 35. Mapping the Human Terrain… Here the different Tribes meet in Friendship and collect Stone for Pipes. Yanktons a Band of Sioux - 1000 Souls Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 36. Dr. Snow maps cholera in Soho Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 37. F. Ratzel, C. Wissler, & C. Sauer: Culture Area Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 38. Henry Mayhew: London Labor & London Poor Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 39. André-Michel Guerry’s (1833) Essai sur la Statistique Morale de la France Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 40. André-Michel Guerry’s (1833) Essai sur la Statistique Morale de la France Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 41. André-Michel Guerry’s (1833) Essai sur la Statistique Morale de la France Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 42. Charles Joseph Minard: Mapping Napoleon's March (1861) Minard Map - French Invasion of Russia http://www.khanacademy.org/video/french-invasion-of-russia?playlist=History Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 43. Maps Descriptive of London Poverty (1899) “No. 34 is occupied by the widow of a boatman. He committed suicide and left her with eleven children. Some have died, and she has five here now, two of whom go to work, and three to school. She makes sailor jackets, but is nearly blind. Struggles hard for her children…” Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 44. Slums of the Great Cities Survey Maps, Florence Kelley Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 45. Ellen Semple: The Anglo-Saxons of the Kentucky Mountains (1901) Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 46. Contemporary Examples… ‘Spatial’ turn in the Social Sciences…as we know it today following the ‘Social’ turn in the DoD, IC, and Big Data. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 47. Mapping the Human Terrain… Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 48. Mapping the Human Terrain… Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 49. Mapping the Human Terrain… The Geography of the Nazi Vote: Context, Confession, and Class in the Reichstag Election of 1930 Author(s): John O'Loughlin, Colin Flint, Luc Anselin Source: Annals of the Association of American Geographers Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 50. Mapping the Human Terrain… LISA Maps for St. Louis Region Homicide Rates, 1984-88 (left) SPATIAL ANALYSES OF HOMICIDE and 1988-93 (right). Counties WITH AREAL DATA with significant Local Moran Steven F. Messner & Luc Anselin statistics are highlighted by the type of spatial association. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 51. Mapping the Human Terrain… STRUCTURAL COVARIATES OF U.S. COUNTY HOMICIDE RATES: INCORPORATING SPATIAL EFFECTS* ROBERT D. BALLER Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 52. The Spatial Turn... Paul Krugman loosely defines economic geography as the study of economic issues in which location matters. Economic theory usually assumes away distance. Krugman argues that it is time to put it back - that the location of production in space is a key issue both within and between nations. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 53. The Spatial Turn... Paul Krugman loosely defines economic geography as the study of economic issues in which location matters. Economic theory usually assumes away distance. Krugman argues that it is time to put it back - that the location of production in space is a key issue both within and between nations. New Economic Geography implies that instead of spreading out evenly around the world, production will tend to concentrate in a few countries, regions, or cities, which will become densely populated but will also have higher levels of income. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 54. David Harvey – Spatial Fix Harvey developed the idea of spatial fix and the second the idea of accumulation by dispossession. The spatial fix consists in the geographical expansions and restructurings used as temporary solutions to over accumulation crises. As Harvey points out, spatial fixes are available even in a world that is more or less fully incorporated in capitalism. Spatial fixes make use of geographical unevenness, but unevenness is not simply a product of "underdevelopment". Capitalism produces its own unevenness, often plunging already “developed” regions into destructive devaluations. The idea implied here is that processes of primitive accumulation are turned not only against the remaining few non-capitalist formations but also against parts of capitalism itself. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 55. David Harvey – Spatial Fix Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 56. David Harvey – Spatio-Temporal Fix Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 57. David Harvey – Spatio-Temporal Fix Harvey has deployed a complex conceptual apparatus, the center-piece of which is the notion of spatio-temporal fix. In his argument, the term “fix” has a double meaning. A certain portion of the total capital is literally fixed in and on the land in some physical form for a relatively long period of time (depending on its economic and physical lifetime). Likewise, Social expenditures (such as public education or a health-care system) also become territorialized and rendered geographically immobile through state commitments. The spatio-temporal ‘fix’, on the other hand, is a metaphor for a particular kind of solution to capitalist crises through temporal deferral and geographical expansion. (2003: 115) Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 58. The Spatial Turn... Paul Collier in his book The Bottom Billion argues that being landlocked in a poor geographic neighborhood is one of four major development "traps" that a country can be held back by. In general, he found that when a neighboring country experiences better growth, it tends to spill over into favorable development for the country itself. For landlocked countries, the effect is particularly strong, as they are limited from their trading activity with the rest of the world. "If you are coastal, you serve the world; if you are landlocked, you serve your neighbors.” Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 59. The Spatial Turn... In The Truly Disadvantaged: The Inner City, the Underclass, and Public Policy (1987), William Julius Wilson was an early exponent, one of the first to enunciate at length the spatial mismatch theory for the development of a ghetto underclass in the United States. Spatial mismatch is the sociological, economic and political phenomenon associated with economic restructuring in which employment opportunities for low-income people are located far away from the areas where they live. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 60. Spatial Social Science Questions?? Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 61. What will we discuss…? Laws of Spatial Social Science!! …what are they and why are they important? …how do we begin to measure and quantify the existence of such laws? Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 62. The value of Laws Teaching Laws allow courses to be structured from first principles Laws provide the basis for predicting performance, making design choices An asset of a strong, robust discipline Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 63. Analogy to Statistics Statistical Packages GIS Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 64. Analogy to Statistics Statistical Packages Statistics GIS Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 65. Analogy to Statistics Statistical Packages Statistics GIS X Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 66. Are Laws of Social Science… Deterministic? Does a counterexample defeat a law? Empirical statements? Verifiable with respect to the real world? Do the Social Sciences have Physics Envy? Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 67. Candidate for the First Law of Can there be laws in the social sciences? Ernest Rutherford: “The only result that can possibly be obtained in the social sciences is: some do, and some don’t” Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 68. Social Science Laws can be: Anyon (1982): social science should be empirically grounded, theoretically explanatory and socially critical. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 69. Social Science Laws ought to be Anyon (1982): [T]hat one collects data and uses it to build one's explanations. Ideally one's explanations are related to the data in that they emerge from it. Yet, they attempt to explain it by recourse to categorically different types of constructs: not by other data [...] (p. 35) It is not sufficient to 'explain' patterns in data using a method that was designed to define patterns in data. Are SISS patterns socially or statistically significant? Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 70. Social Science Laws ought to be Anyon (1982): [T]hat one does not rely, for one's reasons for things, on empirically descriptive regularities or generalizations, or on deductions or inferences there from one's theory must be socially explanatory. It must situate social data in a theory of society. (p.35) still theory-poor Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 71. Social Science Laws ought to be Anyon (1982): To be critical will mean, then, to go beyond the dominant ideology or ideologies, in one's attempt to explain the social world. To be critical is to challenge social legitimations, and fundamental structures [...] to seek to explicate, and to seek to eliminate structurally induced exploitation and social pain. (pp. 35-6) Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 72. Social Science Laws can be: Based on empirical observation Observed to be generally true Sufficient generality to be useful as a norm Deviations from the law should be interesting Dealing with geographic process rather than form Understanding of social process in context …the Nomothetic & Idiographic debate in geography is solved!! Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 73. Tobler’s First Law of Geography TFLG: “All things are related, but nearby things are more related than distant things” W.R.Tobler, 1970. A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic Geography 46: 234-240 Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 74. Tobler’s First Law of Geography Teenage Birth Rates – US. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 75. Tobler’s First Law of Geography Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 76. Tobler’s First Law of Geography Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 77. Tobler’s First Law of Geography Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 78. Tobler’s First Law of Geography Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 79. If TFLG weren’t true… GIS would be impossible Life would be impossible Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 80. Tobler’s First Law of Geography Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 81. A Second (first) Law of Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 82. A Second (first) Law of Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 83. A Second (first) Law of Globalization is thought of a homogenizing the world, but it cannot and will not happen. The underlying processes that drive these systems both look for unevenness and produce unevenness. Homogeneous processes cannot happen, which necessitate the development of methods to describe the unevenness and account for it when describing process. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 84. Practical implications of Second …a state is not a sample of the nation …a country is not a sample of the world Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 85. Practical implications of Second …no average person or place. With the global population distribution being ~50% male and ~50% female would the average be a person with one uterus and one testis? Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 86. A Second (first?) Law of TFLG describes a second-order effect (Properties of places taken two at a time) …is there a law of places taken one at a time? Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 87. A Second (first?) Law of TFLG describes a second-order effect (Properties of places taken two at a time) …is there a law of places taken one at a time? Yes, its named Spatial heterogeneity Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 88. A (Unofficial) Second (first) Law LISA MAP | Crime Columbus, OH BOX MAP | Crime Columbus, OH Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 89. A Second (first) Law of The geography of the 2004 US presidential election results (48 contiguous states) Spatial heterogeneity Non-stationarity / Regional Variation Uncontrolled variance / Equilibrium Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 90. A Second (first) Law of Total Fertility Rate – US. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 91. Implications of Second (first) Stationarity Extreme Heterogeneity Single Equilibria: A Multiple Equilibrium: One singular process over process for every observation space and across study over space. area. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 92. Candidate Laws By adding demographics to Tobler’s law we can define as the first law of Spatial Demographics: “…people who live in the same neighborhood are more similar than those who live in a different neighborhood, but they may be just as similar to people in another neighborhood in a different place.” Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 93. Candidate Laws All important places are at the corners of four map sheets [1],[2] Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 94. Candidate Laws Montello and Fabrikant, “The First Law of Cognitive Geography” “People think closer things are more similar” Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 95. Cognitive Geography Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 96. Cognitive Geography Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 97. Cognitive Geography Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 98. Cognitive Geography Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 99. Candidate Laws Fractal principle: that geographic phenomena reveal more detail the more closely one looks; and that this process reveals additional detail at an orderly and predictable rate (Goodchild and Mark, 1987; Mandelbrot, 1982). Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 100. Candidate Laws Fractal principle: that geographic phenomena reveal more detail the more closely one looks; and that this process reveals additional detail at an orderly and predictable rate (Goodchild and Mark, 1987; Mandelbrot, 1982). Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 101. The Noah effect …describes discontinuity. Mandelbrot found that when something changes, it can change abruptly. For example, a stock priced at $40 a share can quickly fall to $5 without ever being priced at $30 or $20, if something significant triggers its collapse. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 102. The Joseph effect …describes persistence: i.e. trends tend to persist; that is, if a place has been suffering drought, it's likely it will suffer more of the same. In other words, things tend to stay the way they've been recently. Healthy people tend to stay healthy; Winning teams tend to keep on winning; and, Products that have been successful for the past five years will probably be successful next month. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 103. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 104. SISS… Conclusions (Finally). Laws do exist in Geography …but need to be stated. Generalizations about the geographic world can be blindingly obvious …but stating them is important. Laws have practical value in GIS and Social Science. Laws have more than just pedagogic value. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 105. Where are we now with the …SISS help(s) to resolve the timeless dilemma in geography about whether to focus on the local (L) or the global (G) – whether spatial science should be idiographic or nomothetic. As [Phillips] suggests in his discussion of L and G, there is increasing sympathy in many disciplines, including geography, for a middle position in which the specific details of law-like statements are allowed to vary geographically. Recent contributions to the tools of such as Geographically Weighted Regression now provide the techniques to implement this interesting methodological position. Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13
  • 106. Spatial Social Science Questions?? Rich Heimann heimann.richard@gmail.com rheimann@data-tactics.com rheimann@umbc.edu Twitter: @rheimann Richard Heimann © 2013 Thursday, January 31, 13