The Future of COIN
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The Future of COIN



The Future of Counterinsurgency. Altogether Quantitative, Scarcely Analytical. By Richard Heimann, Data Tactics Corporation pg. 35

The Future of Counterinsurgency. Altogether Quantitative, Scarcely Analytical. By Richard Heimann, Data Tactics Corporation pg. 35



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The Future of COIN Document Transcript

  • 2. Collected: 07.01.12 Waldo Canyon, CO—Wildfire Destruction Seeing the big picture takes on a whole new meaning. See. Understand. Respond. Commercial geospatial imagery plays a critical role in natural disasters and crises. GeoEye® provides first responders with rapid geospatial information to help them see,© 2012 GeoEye. All Rights Reserved. respond and save lives during those first critical hours after a disaster strikes. And it’s unclassified, so it’s easily shared with other agencies. Our public-private partnership with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) means we can provide this capability at a great value for taxpayers. GeoEye: Providing clear, deep, and timely insight. Visit us at the Esri Int’l UC (Booth 1601) to learn more about the GeoEye Crisis Response Service for ArcGIS.
  • 3. Summer 2012 CONTENTS >Columns 4 Cover Image NASA’S “BLUE MARBLE” IMAGE 7 Secure World Foundation Forum REMOTE SENSING FOR REMOTE AREAS By Ray Williamson, PhD 26 >Features 10 Crowdsource Mapping BRIDGING SPACE AND DISASTER RESPONSE COMMUNITIES By David Stevens and Juan-Carlos Villagran, UN-SPIDER 13 Legal Handbook FOR COMMUNITY REMOTE SENSING By Annelie Schoenmaker, zero2infinity 16 Mapping Seafloor Habitats NOAA USES SONAR, LIDAR, AND OPTICAL By Peter McIntosh Exelis Visual Information Solutions 20 The Green Belt Movement FROM MAPS TO HEALTHY ECOSYSTEMS By Peter Ndunda The Green Belt Movement 26 Business Uses of Satellite Imagery FROM DIGITALGLOBE AND ASTRIUM 16 GEO-INFORMATION SERVICES By Matteo Luccio, Contributor 30 Innovation in the Energy Industry EARTH IMAGERY FOR SOLAR, OIL & GAS By Tony Frazier, GeoEye 35 The Future of Counterinsurgency ALTOGETHER QUANTITATIVE , SCARCELY ANALYTICAL ... By Rich Heimann, Data Tactics Corporation 20IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 3
  • 4. NASA’s Summer 2012 / Vol. 27 / No. 3 “Blue Marble” Our Mission Imaging Notes is the premier publication for commercial, government and academic remote sensing professionals around the world. It provides objective exclusive in-depth reporting that demonstrates how remote sensing technologies and spatial information COVER IMAGE illuminate the urgent interrelated issues of the environment, energy and security. Imaging Notes has a partnership Imaging Notes is affiliated with the with Secure World Foundation Alliance for Earth Observations, a ( program of The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies ( Publisher/Managing Editor Editorial Advisory Board Myrna James Yoo Mark E. Brender GeoEye Editor Anita Burke Ray A. Williamson, PhD The Catalyst Institute Contributing Writers Nancy Colleton Leonard David Institute for Global Matteo Luccio Environmental Strategies Copy Editor William B. Gail, PhD Our cover image is a Bette Milleson Microsoft ‘Blue Marble’ image of the Earth taken Creative Director Anne Hale Miglarese Jürgen Mantzke from the VIIRS instrument aboard Kevin Pomfret, Esq. Enfineitz LLC NASA’s recently launched Earth-observing satellite, Centre for Spatial Law and Policy Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (NPP). The Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Deputy Art Director Suite (VIIRS) is the primary imaging instrument Andrew Sternard onboard NPP, and it acquires data in 22 spectral Editorial Contributions bands covering visible, near-infrared, and thermal Imaging Notes welcomes contributions for feature articles. We publish articles on the infrared regions of the electromagnetic spectrum. remote sensing industry, including applications, technology, and business. Please see The Eastern, Western (shown here), and Contributor’s Guidelines on, and email proposals to Australian views were created by NASA scientist Norman Kuring. They are composite images using Subscriptions a number of swaths of the Earth’s surface taken on To subscribe or renew, please go to, and click on ‘subscribe.’ January 4, 2012. If you are a current subscriber, renew by locating your account number on your address label to enter the database and update your subscription. The Suomi NPP satellite is in a polar orbit If you cannot go online, you may write to the address below. around Earth at an altitude of 512 miles (about 824 Imaging Notes (ISSN 0896-7091) Copyright © 2012 kilometers), but the perspective of the new Eastern Blueline Publishing LLC, P.O. Box 11519, Denver, CO 80211, 303-477-5272 hemisphere ‘Blue Marble’ is from 7,918 miles (about All rights reserved. No material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by 12,743 kilometers). NASA scientist Norman Kuring any means without written permission from the publisher. While every precaution is managed to ‘step back’ from Earth to get the big taken to ensure accuracy, the publisher and the Alliance for Earth Observations cannot picture by combining data from six different orbits of accept responsibility for the accuracy of information or for any opinions or views presented in Imaging Notes. the Suomi NPP satellite. In other words, the satellite Although trademark and copyright symbols are not used in this publication, they flew above this area of Earth six times over an eight are honored. hour time period. Norman took those six sets of data Imaging Notes is printed on 20% recycled (10% post-consumer waste) paper. and combined them into one image. All inks used contain a percentage of soy base. Our printer meets or Credit: NASA/NOAA. exceeds all federal Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA) Standards. IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM4
  • 5. I m a g e r y co u r te s y of D ig i t a l Gl o be. Imagine Your Imagery Everywhere Esri’s ArcGIS® simplifies the next generation of imagery management and dissemination through on-the-fly processing, image services, and dynamic mosaicking. With ArcGIS, your imagery is accessible to more people in less time. IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 6 Learn more at Copyright © 2012 Esri. All rights reserved.
  • 6. Remote Sensing for Remote Areas REPORT FROM THE SPACE CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS IN MEXICO Secure World Foundation Forum What do Chagas disease, volcanic eruptions, health organizations teamed up to bring an care to isolated rural communities, and agricultural and ocean food production international set of participants from have in common? Though they seem to be totally disparate, independent Brazil, Canada, Colombia, the Europeanproblems, they are closely linked by the fact that they can all be tackled by space technology. Union, Mexico, Portugal, the United All these subjects were explored in an April 2012 three-day forum hosted by the States, and Venezuela to explore theMexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Mexico City in its role as the Pro Tempore utility of space technology for tacklingSecretariat of the Space Conference of the Americas: the Mexican Space Agency many of the pressing human issues(AEM), the Regional Center for Science and Technology Education for Latin America, faced by Mexico and other countries ofand the Caribbean (CRECTEALC) and Secure World Foundation (SWF). These Latin America. The Space Conference 1 F IG U R E 1. Popocatepetl Volcano image taken with TerraSAR-X High- resolution SpotLight, recorded on May 10, 2012. The ground resolution is 3m. Credit: Astrium Services / Infoterra GmbH.IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 7
  • 7. Secure World Foundation Forum of the Americas was also very much Triatoma infestans and related triatomine sensing satellites, combined with high a coming-out party for the emerging species, often referred to as “kissing accuracy positions obtained from GPS Mexican Space Agency, which was just bugs.” These bugs, which feed on the receivers of areas of known infection, created in July 2010, and demonstrated blood of mammals, most commonly or where the right climatological and the wide scope of space activities that appear at night, where they crawl from landscape conditions exist for breeding are already being pursued in Mexico in hiding places to stick their needle-like grounds for the bugs, can help public universities and science institutes. Having proboscis into their victims’ skin, sucking health officials direct their efforts more a single entity to coordinate its efforts will, blood and, if they are infected with effectively to areas of need. among other things, improve Mexico’s Chagas, inadvertently but surely infecting Second, broadband satellite Internet ability to participate in international the victim. Chagas affects the nervous and TV service can provide preventive cooperative programs, including its plans system, the digestive system and the information and health services to these to develop a remote sensing satellite with heart. Because the disease often lies areas, many of which are quite remote the German Space Agency, DLR, focused dormant in the victims’ system for months from urban centers. Third, satellite on detecting wildfires in the wilderness or years, leaving them asymptomatic, they services provide a means to deliver high areas of Mexico. are not even aware they carry the disease, quality medical services remotely to areas making treatment of a large population of lacking qualified medical personnel. Chagas Disease infected individuals very difficult. Finally, information collected from the The forum demonstrated the value The disease is endemic in certain infected areas and delivered to medical of interdisciplinary solutions to troubling tropical areas where heat and moisture research experts in urban centers helps human problems. Take the case of contribute to a very cozy environment for in the long term process of finding more Chagas disease, for example. Chagas fostering population growth of the host effective means of controlling Chagas and is a debilitating, parasitic, vector-borne insects. Chagas occurs mostly in Latin limiting its spread. disease carried by blood-sucking insects, America, where it may infect as many Participants from Brazil, Mexico, and as 18 million people. It can also spread Venezuela, each expert in at least one through skin contact, mucus or feces of of these technologies, presented their infected triatomines, blood transfusion, research, experience, and future plans and congenitally from a mother to her at the forum. They also developed a joint fetus. As a result of global travel, the public declaration that indicated their disease can now be found in Spain, intentions to work together in a regional France, and the United States, countries effort to eradicate Chagas as a regional that experience significant immigration health threat by providing tele-health from countries where Chagas is endemic. services, education, and research on a At this time, there is no vaccine for possible cure. Experts from Argentina Chagas, and the available parasitic have since joined the team. treatments have serious side effects. Combatting the debilitating disease relies Volcanoes largely on limiting exposure to the bug The forum also provided the catalyst that carries it and introducing improved for other follow-on international coopera- RAY A. WILLIAMSON, PHD, is editor of sanitation into endemic areas. tive programs using space technologies, Imaging Notes and Senior Advisor to the Here is where space technology can including one to investigate the recent Secure World Foundation, an organization devoted to the promotion of cooperative help. First, by identifying geographic worrying activity of the volcano Popocate- approaches to space security areas where Chagas-carrying bugs petl near Mexico City. See Figure 1 . In the ( are likely to exist, imagery from remote months leading up to the forum, Popo, IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM8
  • 8. explored the responsibility of emerging space States in adhering to the international space treaties, agreements, and U.N. resolutions in order Participants from Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela, to maintain the long term ability to use outer space each expert in at least one of these technologies, constructively for peaceful presented their research, experience, and future purposes. Finally, much has been plans at the forum. They also developed a joint written recently about the so-called Global South, public declaration that indicated their intentions those countries lying south of the Equator, or to work together in a regional effort to eradicate in some definitions south of the Tropic of Cancer, Chagas as a regional health threat by providing many of which face enormous and similar tele-health services, education, and research on issues of poverty, lack of access to resources, a possible cure. and modest or slow development. This forum was a tiny but significant step inas it is known colloquially, periodically Electronics (INAOE), and DLR met to providing the thinking needed to tacklebegan spewing forth volcanic ash, and discuss the possibility of using satellite some of the problems faced by thejust a few days before the forum began, it radar images to monitor the growth of Global South, for as participant Dr. Alexsent a huge plume into the atmosphere, Popo’s dome. Wuenche of Brazil noted, “Latin Americaliberally coating the houses, streets, Those discussions have led to the is the Global South.” To make progressand vehicles in nearby Puebla and other acquisition by DLR of images from in space for human and environmentalcities southeast of Mexico City. The daily Astrium’s synthetic aperture radar (SAR) security, the countries of Latin Americavolcanic activity has continued for over satellites TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X to need to cooperate more effectively.two months. monitor the volcano. SAR instrumentation Over the past decade, the volcano’s can pierce through the smoke and ashdome within the crater has grown from often above the volcano, producing high-increased ash and lava flow, and related resolution images that can be compared R E SOU RC E Sseismic activity has increased, amplifying to display changes in the volcano’s form > of Mexico’s Centro Nacional de and structure. U.S. volcano experts are space-for-human-and-environmental-Prevención de Desastres (CENAPRED) also working with CENAPRED on the security-in-the-americas-space-policy,-for the potential danger to the region from volcano’s recent activity. long-term-sustainability-and-cyber-healththe volcano. As a result, officials from The forum also emphasized the role of >, CRECTEALC, the National space policy and law in space sustain- > for Astrophysics, Optics and ability, SWF’s primary theme. It alsoIMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 9
  • 9. CrowdsourceMappingBRIDGING COMMUNITIES: SPACE AND DISASTERWITH VOLUNTEER AND TECHNICAL HE CARIBBEAN REGION, WHERE HAITI IS LOCATED, IS ANNUALLY EXPOSED TO HURRICANES and tropical storms, some of which trigger disasters that prompt requests for humanitarian assistance. Hurri- canes Georges and Ivan are examples of events that have provoked extensive losses in Caribbean countries in recent decades. In every disaster, response efforts include the assessment of damages and needs, and such damage assessments usually find their way into situational maps depicting impacts on infrastructure, lifelines and other sectors of development. Of particular importance is the mapping of the road infrastructure, as such infrastructure is needed to deliver humanitarian assistance to the affected communities. While the exposure to hurricanes is very well known to the inhabitants of Caribbean countries, the same cannot be stated about earthquakes. The 12 January 2010 earthquake that destroyed much of Port au Prince as well as surrounding communities in Haiti took the Caribbean islands by surprise, triggering fatalities beyond imagination, limiting response efforts on behalf of many government agencies, and demonstrating the very high but unperceived vulnerability to earthquakes in Haiti. According to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO, 2011), more than 200,000 people lost their lives, more than 100,000 houses were destroyed and more than 200,000 houses were damaged. Destroying the facilities of the Civil Protection Agency and the primary and secondary facilities used as Emergency Oper- ation Centers to coordinate efforts, and destroying the facility of the National Geospatial Information Center, the earthquake inhibited these two organizations from rapidly generating and providing maps concerning 1 affected areas in the days that followed the event. The humanitarian response to this a dedicated webpage in the UN-SPIDER DAVID P. STEVENS catastrophe was huge, and many coun- Knowledge Portal to display informa- Programme Officer tries from around the world provided tion generated regarding this event, and United Nations Office for Outer Space support to the response and recovery conducted a technical advisory mission. Affairs, Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency efforts. As in the cases of other major As part of its activities, UN-SPIDER Response (UN-SPIDER) events, the United Nations’ Space-based facilitated communications and Vienna, Austria Information for Disaster Management cooperation among the Civil Protec- and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER) tion Agency, the National Centre for Programme supported response efforts. Geospatial Information of Haiti, the JUAN-CARLOS VILLAGRAN Programme Officer With the support of the Cartographic United Nations Stabilization Mission United Nations Office for Outer Space Section of the United Nations, it in Haiti (MINUSTAH) and the Infor- Affairs, Space-based Information for requested the activation of the Interna- mation Management Unit of the United Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER) tional Charter: Space and Major Disast- Nations Office for the Coordination of Bonn, Germany ers, it mobilized its partners, delivered Humanitarian Affairs, with a view to space-based data and information, set up ensuring that technical assistance could IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 10
  • 10. F IG U R E 1. Photo of expert meeting that was conducted by UN-SPIDER in cooperation with Secure World Foundation at the Vienna International Centre, July 2011. Results of this and the Geneva meeting in November 2011 are captured in the full report, listed in provided in the event of a future national Network of Crisis Mappers premier hub for crisis mapping anddisaster (UN-SPIDER, 2010). ( and Open- humanitarian response. The network Unfortunately, the extensive damage StreetMap ( to brings together a diverse set of indi-to the local communications infrastruc- support disaster response efforts through viduals from the humanitarian, humanture inhibited many agencies from sending the generation of thematic maps using rights, policy, technology, and scholarlyinformation generated abroad via typical satellite imagery and global navigation communities to help catalyse commu-internet channels, so direct shipments of satellite systems as a source of data. nication and collaboration among ainformation in the form of external hard What made the difference in this case wide range of different communitiesdrives and DVDs had to be used to send is the fact that space agencies provided with the purpose of advancing the studysuch information to those agencies in satellite imagery for such communities and applying crisis mapping world-charge of relief operations in Haiti. to access free of charge as a way to assist wide. Throughout the year, the Crisis In contrast to previous disasters, the them in the generation of such maps Mappers Network facilitates continuingHaiti earthquake provided an oppor- (UN-SPIDER, 2011). virtual interaction among its members.tunity for the volunteer and technical For example, The International As Jen Ziemke, co-founder of thecommunities (V&TCs) such as the Inter- Network of Crisis Mappers is the world’s International Network of Crisis MappersIMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 11
  • 11. included providing a number of volun- teer groups an opportunity to train their teams of volunteers in a realistic scenario, several technology developers an opportu- nity to try their services with the volunteer groups, and the UN-SPIDER programme a chance to test the response and acces- sibility of space-based information to support such exercises. A detailed report can be found at the following website: report-for-dec-2011-samoa-cyclone-simu- lation-released. With the lessons learned in Samoa, a similar simulation is being comments (Ziemke, 2010), Crisis technology communities. Among them, prepared to be carried out in the Kingdom Mapping encompasses the collection, expert meetings have been held, such as of Tonga in 2013. dynamic visualization and subsequent the International Meeting of Experts on The cooperation between UN-SPIDER analysis of geo-referenced information Crowdsource Mapping for Preparedness and Secure World Foundation in this area on disasters, contemporary conflicts and and Emergency Response, which was continues in 2012 through the conduction human rights violations. A wide range of conducted on 5-6 July 2011 in the United of follow-up expert meetings (scheduled for sources is used to create these crisis maps, Nations Office in Vienna, and the second Dec. 3-5) and is expected to contribute to such as events data from newspaper and one, which was organized in the Palais de the efforts that such volunteer and technical intelligence parsing, satellite imagery, Nations of the United Nations in Geneva communities can provide when it comes to interview and survey data, and SMS. on 16 November 2011. preparedness and response efforts carried Scholars have also developed analytical During such meetings, experts from out by the disaster management commu- methodologies to identify patterns in the space and the volunteer technical nity through such simulations, exercises dynamic crisis maps. These range from communities recommended the need and other relevant activities. computational methods and visualiza- to raise awareness within the disaster tion techniques to spatial econometrics management community regarding the R E SOU RC E S and “hot spot” analysis. innovative services provided by volun- > Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) While scholars employ these methods teer and technical communities. These (2011): Health response to the earthquake in their academic research, operational meetings also contributed to the devel- in Haiti. January 2010 – Lessons to be crisis mapping platforms developed by opment of an understanding of the learned for the next massive sudden- onset disaster. Available in: http://new. practitioners have to carry out their strengths and challenges of the commu- work in support of emergency relief nities (space, disaster management, HealthResponseHaitiEarthq.pdf. operations using more traditional tools and volunteer and technical communi- > UN-SPIDER (2010): Technical advisory and procedures. The Network of Crisis ties) and to the exploration of ways to support activities carried out in 2010 in the Mappers has established a series of proceed jointly. One of the recommend- framework of the United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster conferences aiming to bridge the divide ations from the meeting was to plan a Management and Emergency Response. by bringing these scholars and practition- simulation exercise in Samoa in which Report A/AC.105/985. Available in: http:// ers together to shape the future of crisis the three communities would work AAC105_985/985_E.pdf. mapping. The next conference for crisis together in a coordinated manner for the mappers is scheduled for October 2012 first time (UN-SPIDER, 2011). > UN-SPIDER (2011): Space-based information for crowdsource mapping. in Washington, D.C. The Cyclone simulation exercise for Report A/AC.105/985. Available in: http:// Recognizing the relevance of such Samoa was carried out from 30 November efforts carried out by the Volunteer and to 3 December 2012, providing both a AAC105_1007/49STSC-1007_E.pdf. Technical Communities, UN-SPIDER chance for all participating groups to > Ziemke, J. (2010): The International Network of Crisis Mappers. Proceedings and Secure World Foundation have been bring their expertise to the exercise and of the Fourth United Nations International conducting a variety of activities to iden- a golden opportunity to test response UN-SPIDER Bonn Workshop. Available in: tify specific actions that could ensure closer plans and initiatives. A secondary exercise challenge-communication-coordination- cooperation among the crowdsource was conducted on 15 December 2012 to cooperation-capacity-development. mapping, disaster management and space complete the objectives. These objectives IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM12
  • 12. A CRS Legal HandbookCONSIDERATIONS FOR PARTICIPANTS IN CROWDSOURCING 1 ommunity remote sensing (CRS) is becoming a a limitation for some, the impact of powerful tool with many important applications. CRS means that these policies remains quite limited. the community of users contributes data points to certain projects, In fact, International Law, as well as from the field, from mobile devices, to a centralized digital map the United Nations system, has acted serving as a data aggregator. Similar concepts are crowdsourcing in favor of access to data, through the(more casual) and VGI (Volunteered Geographic Information). 1986 United Nations Principles relating CRS has the particularity of using multiple types of location data and sources. to remote sensing of the Earth fromAnalyzing and combining all or some of these different types of data create a new space, and through the implementationset of data from which information can be extracted, leading to new knowledge. of the International Charter on SpaceIt is the fact of combining all this information that creates a more accurate picture and Major Disasters.of the situation at hand, whether it is for humanitarian response after a naturaldisaster, for a scientific study of an ecosystem, for an applied use such as micro- F IG U R E 1. OpenStreetMap of Tacoma,weather predictions in mountainous country, or for many other uses. Washington, done by crowdsourcing. As with every human activity, legal issues need to be taken into consideration. Ateach stage of a CRS project – data collection, data access and usage, sharing and distri- ANNELIE SCHOENMAKER External Relations and Legal Officerbution of data and/or information – some legal threats can be found and it is important zero2infinityto be aware of them before embarking on a CRS project. Barcelona, Spain Four main legal concerns (first identified by Kevin Pomfret, attorney at the Centre www.inbloon.comfor Spatial Law and Policy) are national security, privacy, intellectual property rights,and liability. Failure to address these legal issues when considering a CRS initiative EDITOR’S NOTE: See story about the report on CRS from the United Nations’may eventually harm the project or have negative impacts on future projects. Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency ResponseNational Security Considerations (UN-SPIDER) on page 10. Also, LBx Journal’s Spring issue includes a major A State’s national security policy might restrict access to specific data, such as report on Location Data Privacy. invery high resolution satellite imagery, or to aerial imagery of its territory. While conjunction with The Location Forumthis should always be taken into account by CRS projects, and can certainly be ( NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 13
  • 13. Much more pressing are the issues privacy are currently on-going related to work is re-used. Copyright is, however, of privacy, intellectual property rights social networks and Google’s new privacy not always the most appropriate way (IPR) and liability. policy, dated March 2012, coming either to protect remote sensing data, as it from individuals or from governments. cannot cover raw data, which is not an Privacy Real threats and perceived threats to original creation, but only processed Privacy is a complex notion. It has privacy are different and the boundary data. Other forms of legal protection different meanings in different cultures is difficult to determine. It is likely that may apply to raw data, like database and enjoys different levels of protection privacy would not be a major legal issue protection, or ownership rights. according to State law, as each State is for most of the data that is being used Policies are usually in place for using sovereign with respect to how it applies in CRS efforts, but the laws, regula- remote sensing data, and in most cases the right to privacy on its territory. tions and public feelings about it are so a license needs to be acquired. The National legislation mostly protects complex and diversified that this uncer- license details the conditions under against violations of privacy by public tain situation might actually inhibit the which the data can be used, which can authorities, but no mention is made of use or collection of certain data. be more or less restrictive. A few typical private or commercial intrusions. These For CRS projects, it is therefore best conditions include: cases then need to be dealt with on a to rely on volunteer disclosure of data, the data shall be used only for case-by-case basis, which does not offer instead of random collection on the the particular purpose for which the license is granted, it shall not be used for any purpose that would be against the law, it shall not be altered, it shall not be further distributed. These last two conditions are usually not compatible with CRS projects, as the aim is usually to add information layers and then further distribute the new data. Very often, there is no particular licensing system in place, and this may result in even more confusion. This does not mean the data are not protected; it 2 just means it is more difficult to know which type of usage is allowed. Many organizations providingF IG U R E 2 . an environment of legal certainty. Web. Using text or photographs coming data free of charge, such as Google,OpenStreetMap Interestingly, cases such as privacy from social networks like Twitter or do have a policy and terms and condi-of Washington, infringements by Google Street View Facebook should be an option, but it tions for use of their data. However, asD.C. have been dealt with differently in should always be done with the full each organization may have a slightly different European States. While awareness and consent of the individual different policy, it becomes quite diffi- Germany declared Google Street View user. With privacy being such an uncer- cult to keep track of all of this in a CRS as legal, Swiss courts ruled that Google tain area of law, this consent will have project, where there are many layers of must take action to protect privacy to be dealt with carefully. data. Therefore it is more prudent for by blurring out faces and license plate a CRS project to rely only on original numbers. In some countries, the term Intellectual Property Rights data created by the contributors or on “privacy” does not even translate Virtually everywhere, a person data in the public domain. This limita- directly and is not protected as a right. producing any kind of printed, written tion, however, drastically reduces the In the specific area of remote sensing or in some other way publicized image, amount of data that can be used. data, the issue of privacy is even more data or text is protected by copyright, A good example of a project that has complex and less regulated. Issues are by default. This means that the person adopted this angle is OpenStreetMap likely only to increase with technology who created the data needs to receive (OSM). See Figures 1-2. The OSM copy- developments. Numerous lawsuits about at least proper attribution when the right and license policy, as well as the IMAGING NOTES // WINTER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 14
  • 14. legal dispositions, specify: “Only sources of guarantee of data quality might very than through hard legislation. As peoplewith compatible licenses – such as U.S. well limit the uses made of CRS data grow accustomed to new technologies,Government information released into for critical issues like disaster response their views on the boundaries of privacythe public domain – may be used as bases or science model building. As noted change. Over time, cultures change, andfor adding OSM data. However, it is OK before, using and sharing are the main in this technological age, cultures seemto use Yahoo! Aerial Imagery, as Yahoo! purposes of CRS data, and limitations to change ever more quickly. It is unreal-has agreed to allow OSM to use it. Better to them should be avoided. istic for a system of law to keep pace withstill, create the data yourself!” If data can never be 100% guaran- these changes, and it will probably evolve This is a good example of how to teed, still there are levels of trustwor- slowly as an adaptation to a fluid reality.avoid legal issues in a CRS project, but it thiness, depending on who the contrib- Concerning IPR, without harmo-also provides evidence that a legal system utors are, how and if they are selected, nizing the laws worldwide, there couldwith a clear and uniform approach to how many people are involved and be an effort made to raise awarenesslicenses and with a better overall compre- how the project is managed. Something about community remote sensing and itshension of the uses of technology could as wide open as Wikipedia cannot be goals, which are mainly scientific, educa-make such initiatives much easier to compared to the GISCorps project, tional and related to disaster manage-handle and also more efficient. where a small number of professional ment and other public good. If specific Another complex question concerns volunteers are carefully selected for licenses could be designed for this kindthe term “derived work” and what it each project and where one volunteer is of project and on a global basis, use andcovers. If only a very small part of the a designated manager. sharing of the necessary data might bedata is used to create a new set of data, Two examples of cases in which facilitated. Efforts have already beenshould the licensing policy of this data uncertainty over data quality could harm made in this direction, such as theapply to the whole compilation? As CRS the use of CRS data are political pressure Creative Commons usually a compilation of many different and lawsuits. In the courtroom as well as Finally, several international institu-data, it can be very complex to attribute in the political arena, the only acceptable tions are already working on the differenta coherent legal status to the compilation. arguments are ones that are verified, veri- issues at stake. The Data Democracy The solution found by Open- fiable or coming from reliable sources. Initiative of the Committee on EarthStreetMap is therefore one of the safest It would be counterproductive to force Observation Satellites (CEOS) is partic-ones. All the data used is in the public organizations involved with CRS to guar- ularly worth noting. This initiativedomain, or specifically created for the antee their data and to assume liability for aims at providing “timely access to keyproject – the contributors having previ- them. This would probably be the death datasets free of charge to build capacityously agreed to the OSM terms – and the of most CRS projects. Another approach worldwide, especially with respect tocompilation is protected under a Creative would be to standardize the use of liability developing countries. Additional DataCommons license. Initiatives such as disclaimers for CRS projects. This aspect Democracy initiatives include enhancedCreative Commons are very useful goes hand-in-hand with the technical chal- data dissemination capabilities, sharingfor CRS projects, as they answer their lenge of metadata requirements in CRS, of software tools, increased training,need for a standardized, internationally and should probably be tackled simultane- and technology transfer to end users.applicable and legally acceptable way of ously, through cooperation between tech- CEOS member agencies recognize thatdistributing and sharing the data. nical and legal experts in the field. the GEOSS Data Sharing Principles should serve as the basis for data accessLiability Ways Forward in this context to contribute data for the Liability in the case of CRS is Laws are sometimes uncertain and public good. In particular, CEOS agen-directly linked to data quality. How outdated and usually do not reflect the cies will contribute to the GEOSS Datacan the quality and the accuracy of the level that technology and its applications Core by making several datasets avail-data be trusted and can it/should it be have reached. This is not surprising, as able on a full and open basis.” (Source:verified? This is one of the limitations of laws are usually reactive and answer a CEOS Rio Statement).CRS and of all participatory or “open” need after a new situation arises. One The CRS community, as well as allprojects, like Wikipedia, for example. of the most pressing issues for CRS proj- citizens and businesses involved in social The question is, will this liability ects seems to be related to standardiza- networking and crowdsourcing, willissue limit the use of CRS data or harm tion and a common understanding of the probably show the way. As CRS flour-the development of this type of initia- rules and the technologies involved. ishes, a few broad and common princi-tive? Whereas it is unlikely that it will Concerning privacy, the way forward ples for these issues should be found andharm the development of CRS, the lack will probably go through custom rather agreed upon internationally.IMAGING NOTES // WINTER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 15
  • 16. NOAA COLLECTS AND ANALYZES DETAILED SONAR, LIDAR AND OPTICAL IMAGERY DATA TO DETERMINEthe best regulations and practices to preserve vital habitats. They are using ENVI image analysis software to process, analyze,and fuse different types of geospatial imagery and to integrate information with Esri’s ArcGIS. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses GIS and imagery for a variety of environmentalmanagement and conservation efforts including conserving and managing coastal and marine ecosystems and resources. NOAAprovides these services to academic, state, federal and private sector partners. NOAA recently assisted one of these partners tomap and extract detailed information about seafloor habitats within a marine protected area. In order to do so efficiently, NOAAneeded to develop a new semi-automated approach that would allow them to process, analyze and fuse different types of imageryand provide their partner with the fundamental data needed to make informed decisions. The National Park Service (NPS) asked NOAA to map and extract detailed information about seafloor habitats in BuckIsland Reef National Monument off the U.S. Virgin Island of St. Croix, which has been dubbed “one of the finest marine gardensin the Caribbean Sea.” The monument is one of only a few fully marine protected areas in the U.S. National Park System and ishome to a coral reef ecosystem that supports a large variety of native flora and fauna, including several endangered and threat-ened species, such as hawksbill turtles and brown pelicans. The NPS called upon NOAA’s Biogeo- depths as well as characterize its habitats bathymetry or depth information. Thegraphy Branch to assist by providing prod- across the entire seascape.” intensity of the echo also provided infor-ucts to inform ecosystem-based manage- NOAA ultimately devised a new mation about the sea floor, such as howment in the monument. To do this, NOAA method that fuses the strengths of four hard, soft, rough or smooth it is, whichneeded an efficient and effective method different sonar, lidar and optical imagery often indicates discrete habitats such asto map and assess the distribution and sensors to gather the information they coral, sand and sea grasses.ecology of living marine resources. needed. NOAA chose ENVI image anal- The resources in Buck Island Reef ysis software as a key part of their solu- ENVI Helps Distinguish the Sea FloorNational Monument are impacted by its tion because it combines the latest spec- The lidar and acoustically collectedvisitors, boaters, snorkelers and scuba tral image processing and image analysis bathymetry was also used to calculatedivers as well as pollution, climate change capabilities with automated workflows, a suite of complexity metrics in Esri’sand extreme weather events like hurri- allowing users to obtain scientifically ArcGIS, such as slope, rugosity andcanes. The habitat map with which NOAA proven, accurate results quickly and effi- curvature, which emphasize the differ-provided monument resource managers ciently. Because ENVI gives users the ences between habitats on the sea floor. Aswill be used to understand the current state capability to fuse multiple data modali- part of their preprocessing work, NOAAof the area and how things are changing ties such as radar, lidar, optical, hyper- used Principle Component Analysisso that they can determine the best rules, spectral, stereo, thermal, acoustic and (PCA) to reduce redundancy in the dataregulations and practices to preserve and more, the strengths of different sensors and better understand the complexityconserve its habitats well into the future. can be exploited together, which creates on the sea floor. This information, along a rich context that aids decision making. with ancillary information includingWhen One Sensor Isn’t Enough NOAA recorded depth and other intensity information, was loaded into After evaluating the area, NOAA deter- characteristics of shallow areas in the ENVI, allowing the researchers to drawmined that traditional marine mapping monument using multispectral and lidar distinctions between softer and hardermethods that rely on the manual interpre- imagery. This imagery was acquired from sediments in flatter areas of the sea floor.tation of optical imagery couldn’t produce planes that flew over areas up to about 30 FIGURE 1. NOAA used ENVI to produce a PCAa comprehensive habitat map of the monu- meters in depth, the point at which light surface – the foundation for their mappingment given its depths, which extend from is unable to penetrate to the seafloor. At methodology – from four different acousticthe coastline of Buck Island to 1,800 depths of more than five meters, NOAA and multispectral datasets spanning themeters at its deepest extent. “We had a used sonar technology located onboard monument’s 20,000-acre extent. Imagevery unique problem,” said Tim Battista, vessels and ships, such as the Nancy courtesy of Oceanographer at NOAA. “There is no Foster, to scan the sea bed. The Nancyone technology or sensor that allowed us Foster emits more than 3,500 pings per PETER MCINTOSHto collect the data we needed in the range second and receivers on the ship record Solutions Engineer Exelis Visual Information Solutionsof depths present at the monument. We the time and angle of the echoes returning Boulder, Colo.had to devise an innovative method that from the sea floor. Days spent sailing allow us to both measure sea floor and employing sonar technology yielded NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 17
  • 17. D E LINE ATIONCL A SSIF ICATION 3 2 FIGURE 2. NOAA used the feature extraction tool in ENVI to “pull out” unique habitats from the sea floor around Buck Island (above) and assign attributes to the features (below). Image courtesy of NOAA. FIGURE 3. The feature extraction process identifies unique objects and habitat types on the Using an automated workflow, pixel, but rather, an object. We are now ocean floor from a depth-derived PCA surface. NOAA staff performed segmentation in able to more objectively and efficiently Image courtesy of NOAA. ENVI using the software’s extraction deal with heterogeneity and make prod- tool. Following image segmentation, ucts that meet our partners’ needs.” the workflow in ENVI provides users ENVI and ArcGIS allows us to leverage with several options for classifying or Integrating GIS and Imagery the image analysis capabilities of ENVI assigning attributes to the features in their Finally, NOAA took the habitat with the geospatial tools and statistics imagery. NOAA classified features by maps and other information derived in ArcGIS, which gives us tremendous selecting locations with unique acoustic from imagery and moved them into analytical power,” said Costa. “It also or optical signatures, and performed ArcGIS for additional analysis and the allows us to put our habitat maps on the ground validation using still and video creation of applications. This informa- Web for anyone to see and use.” cameras operated by divers and Remotely tion includes the structure, biological NOAA will be delivering the final Operated Vehicles (ROVs). NOAA’s clas- cover and percent cover – key pieces of habitat maps, information derived from sification scheme used to describe these information that resource managers need imagery, still images and videos and sites takes into consideration what the to make effective ecosystem management related applications that are developed to sea floor is made of, what is growing on decisions. Information extracted from monument managers in July 2012. Previ- top of it and the quantity of cover. imagery and added to a GIS provides a ously, NOAA staff could only monitor NOAA then took the segments and clas- complete picture of a geographic area of limited areas because the process was sified ground validation points and applied interest that includes pertinent, current very time-intensive and depended on the a free ENVI add-on called RuleGen devel- information. ENVI makes it seamless to experiences and interpretation skills of oped by an ENVI user. RuleGen includes update ArcGIS with information from the analyst, which isn’t highly replicable. a classification and regression tree which geospatial imagery by delivering image “Our past mapping efforts were was well-suited for NOAA’s acoustic data- analysis tools directly from the ArcGIS conducted by manually digitizing and sets. Then, NOAA staff returned to the desktop and server environments. interpreting optical imagery,” said field and verified the accuracy of the output One application that NOAA develops Tormey. “The new methods that were – a draft classified habitat map. for some partners is a Web-based mapping developed coupled with the power of “Acoustic data is often very noisy portal so that partners have the option of ENVI allow us to integrate the strengths and heterogeneous, which makes classi- displaying each habitat class separately, of multiple acoustic sensors, multispec- fication difficult using traditional pixel- overlaying ground-truth points, viewing tral and lidar imagery and produce a based approaches,” said Sam Tormey, the videos and images that were captured seamless product across the entire extent Marine Spatial Analyst contracted with and creating custom maps. These portals of our study areas.” NOAA is now able NOAA through C S S-Dynamac. “ENVI are especially useful for partners who to also produce products at a much finer has allowed us to overcome these chal- may not be familiar with traditional GIS spatial scale, so maps are more reflective lenges, so we are no longer classifying a software. “The seamless integration of of the true features on the ground. IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 18
  • 18. 1 -Scan -High Density Scanning -Long Range LiDAR Sensor -360° Digital Image Capture2 -Extract -Easy automated workflow -Powerful 3D Visualization -On Screen 3D Measurement 3 -Deliver -Simple Data Export to CAD/GIS -One-Source Turnkey Solution -Increase Productivity, Reduce CostsIP-S2HDHigh Density ScanningFor more information, email:
  • 19. From Maps to Healthy Eco THE GREEN BELT MOVEMENT PETER NDUNDA GIS Specialist The Green Belt Movement Nairobi, Kenya In Memory of Wangari Maathai in the Central Highlands of Kenya on ronmental conservation. Today, the This article is in memory of April 1, 1940. In 1971, she became the Green Belt Movement has supported Professor Wangari Muta Maathai first woman to receive a PhD in East grassroots communities in planting (1940–2011): Nobel Peace Laureate, and Central Africa, thereafter the first more than 50 million trees, restoring environmentalist, scientist, parliament- woman to chair a department at the thousands of hectares of degraded IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM arian, founder of the Green Belt Move- University of Nairobi, and the first to land and improving the livelihoods20 ment, and advocate for social justice, be appointed an associate Professor. of hundreds of thousands of local human rights and democracy. In 1977, she founded the Green Belt communities. Professor Wangari Maathai was Movement to address the needs of the She was a globally recognized champ- born in the village of Ihithe, near Nyeri, grassroots communities and for envi- ion for democracy, human rights and
  • 20. osystems and Livelihoods F IG U R E 1. Community members working on their tree nurseries. GBM supports more than 4000 community tree nurseries across Kenya that raise and care for more than 8 million seedlings annually. Image courtesy of ManoocherUSAID. environmental conservation. In 2004, ment, named Professor Maathai a UN we must not give up, we must persist,” Professor Maathai was awarded the Messenger of Peace, with a special her legacy will continue to stand as an Nobel Peace Prize in recognition for focus on the environment and climate example to all of us to persist in our her work in sustainable develop- change. She was also the Goodwill pursuit of progress. The Green Belt ment, democracy, and peace – the first Ambassador to the Congo Forest Basin Movement is determined to build IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM African woman and the first environ- and a founding member of the Nobel upon Professor Maathai’s desire to 21 mentalist to receive this prestigious Women’s Initiative. create a values-driven society of people honor. In 2009, the United Nations Prof. Maathai died on Sept. 25, who consciously work for continued Secretary General, in recognition of 2011, at the age of 71. As she used to improvement of their livelihoods and a her deep commitment to the environ- remind the world, “we must not tire, greener, cleaner world.
  • 21. When we plant trees, we plant the seeds of peace and hope. – Wangari Maathai, Nobel Peace Prize Laureate, 2004 and Founder, The Green Belt Movement ounded by the 2004 Nobel Peace Laureate Prof. Wangari Maathai in 1977, the Green Belt Movement (GBM) works at the grassroots to promote environmental conservation, empower communities, and foster sustainable livelihoods. Over the decades, the organization that was founded to respond to the needs of rural Kenyan women – who reported that their streams were drying up, their food supply was threatened and fire wood resources were quickly diminishing – has mobilized communities to plant over 50 million trees across Kenya. By so doing, thousands of hectares of degraded forest land and water catchments have been restored, soil erosion controlled on the community farms and the livelihoods of thousands of local women have been improved. In spite of 35 years of achieve- Introduction of GIS and Remote ronmental conservation, climate change, ment, environmental conservation Sensing at GBM governance, empowerment and mapping and socio-economic development are In 2007, GBM set up a state-of-the-art their natural resources through the GBM’s still enormous challenges in Kenya GIS lab facility that enables the organ- Community Empowerment and Education and throughout Africa. For Kenya to ization to cope with increasing demand (CEE) program. The CEE is the commu- achieve sustainable development, the for reliable data from the field for deci- nity engagement platform upon which all country needs to have at least 10% sion making in support of the organiza- other GBM programs are built. The CEE forest cover so as to provide all vital tion’s watershed-based approach to tree engages the communities to examine their services – water resources for the popu- planting, conservation and community needs, rights and responsibilities, the links lation, electrical power generation, development across Kenya. The develop- between the environment and poverty, agriculture, wildlife and tourism – that ment of this capacity marked an important and the challenges that affect them. It also are supplied by this important and yet milestone for GBM towards scaling up the empowers them to develop their own solu- fragile ecosystem. Today the figure is impact of community work on the ground. tions to these problems. about 2% closed canopy forest cover. GBM learned that when local commu- GIS and remote sensing capacity To increase the forest cover and nities are empowered and educated to within GBM has provided absolutely scale up the impact of the community understand their environment, their critical tools and skills required to work on the ground required GBM to natural resources, and the linkage between carry out analysis on the status of our develop a landscape scale approach to forests and their own livelihoods, they are forests so as to: planning, monitoring and analysis. more likely to take care of and protect create awareness across GBM’s experience shows that GIS and these resources. To realize this, GBM communities in Kenya through remote sensing provide useful tools deployed more than 70 field extension staff the CEEs, to develop this capacity and satellite across the country. Through this network identify areas of forest loss that imagery is a critical component for of field staff, GBM has been mobilizing need immediate intervention in the our work. and training the communities on envi- critical watersheds of Kenya, and, IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM22
  • 22. explore solutions for restoration and protection of these watersheds. With the use of high resolutionimagery, field-based data and localknowledge, forest maps were developedto assist in the assessment and analysis offorest status in Mt. Kenya, Aberdares andMau forests in Kenya. The end productof this analysis was a priority list of crit-ical watersheds in Kenya that are highlythreatened and need immediate interven-tion. The maps identified and delineatedthe extent of these degraded watersheds,creating a portfolio of community treeplanting sites for rehabilitation. As a result, GBM is currentlyworking with the grassroots commu-nities in Kenya to restore these criticalwatersheds (including Gura, Chania,Turasha, Malewa, among others).They produce most of the water forNairobi, the capital city of Kenya, forLake Naivasha, and form the catch- 3ment of the river Athi and river Tana,Kenya’s largest river that supplies waterto hydropower plants, which generate the communities provide F IG U R E 2 . A womanover 50% of Kenya’s total electricity. In powerful communication putting soil in a potting bagaddition to the hydrological, economic tools for stakeholders to in preparation for growing a seedling. Image courtesyand biodiversity benefits of these forest facilitate discussions, and of ManoocherUSAID.restoration efforts, the restoration and build consensus on theprotection of these watersheds will go a communities’ priorities. F IG U R E 3 . GBM communitylong way in helping to solve the growing At a spatial resolu- tree nursery in Nyeri constituency, Kenya.problems of climate change. tion of 2.5m and .5m, For Kenya to positively contribute to Spot imagery and GeoEyeglobal climate change efforts, it is impor- imagery were used by aid of such maps, manytant to adequately address the drivers GBM to develop maps that GBM communities have 2of deforestation and forest degradation provided the communities been able to define theirwithout jeopardizing the livelihoods of with a faithful representa- conservation goals, agreethe local communities. This can only be tion of the reality on the ground. GBM’s on their forest management plans andachieved if the local communities are experience has been that when integrated design their future.well informed to fully and effectively with the communities’ knowledge of The outcomes of these GBM’sparticipate in the various Climate Change their local landscape and values, these community participatory processes haveprogram processes (including CDM/ maps become incredible tools for helping been remarkable: three community-Clean Development Mechanism and the communities to easily understand the based Afforestation and Reforesta-REDD/Reduced Emissions from Defor- linkage between the state of the environ- tion Clean Development Mechanismestation and Forest Degradation) so as ment, their behavior and actions and (CDM AR) projects in Aberdares andto ensure that the proposed interventions their livelihoods. It is when the communi- Mt. Kenya have been registered by thewill continue to improve their livelihoods ties fully appreciate this linkage that they United Nations Framework Conven-while also protecting the forests. The stand up and take action to sustainably tion on Climate Change (UNFCCC),maps produced in close collaboration with manage their natural resources. With the two community-based reforestation andIMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 23
  • 23. 4,034 8,000,000 50 million Number of Number of Total community tree indigenous number nurseries across seedlings of trees Kenya that are raised by the planted raising trees community from to be planted nurseries 1978 to elsewhere annually date climate change mitigation projects have lite imagery maps, and other field-based other project stakeholders. The maps been initiated in the Maasai Mau forest, data collection techniques, and then show the location of these community among other community development mobilized them to train and support tree nurseries, the name of the commu- projects across the country. the communities to map their tree nurs- nity group that takes care of the tree As GBM rolls out forest restoration eries. So far, a total of 4,034 community nursery, their seedlings’ production work in the identified priority watersheds tree nurseries have been mapped across capacity and the number of participating in Mt. Kenya, Aberdares and Mau forests, Kenya. These tree nurseries raise and households in the nursery group. we support the communities to carry out take care of more than 8 million indig- This location-specific information an extensive assessment of the numbers enous seedlings annually for planting in on tree nurseries has been invaluable in of trees required to rehabilitate those these important yet highly threatened the process of scaling up GBM’s work areas, the number of seedlings available watersheds - as well as on their farms, at the grassroots level. It provides GBM in the community tree nurseries and the public lands, sites of cultural signifi- with the ability to assess the availability capacity to scale up seedlings’ production cance and protected reserves. and distribution of indigenous seedlings to meet the restoration targets. As a result of the data collection, an required to meet the re-afforestation To achieve this, GBM trained its interactive Web map was developed using needs in the critical watersheds in the network of field staff on GPS data Esri’s ArcGIS Server so as to share this country. With the help of this informa- collection skills, interpretation of satel- information with the communities and tion, GBM is able to direct investments FIGURE 4. Using GBM’s watershed-based approach to conservation, GBM works with grassroots communities to identify and prioritize critical watersheds that require immediate restoration. In the Aberdares alone, GBM is working with the local communities to restore 7 priority watersheds that produce most of the water for Nairobi, the capital city of Kenya and form the catchment of the river Athi and river Tana - Kenya’s largest river that plays an integral role in the economy of the country. F IG U R E 5 . GeoEye imagery for 2011 showing the Gakanga planting site, and the status of a community reforestation area in Zaina forest in the Aberdares ecosystem. With financial support from USAID, The Green Belt Movement has been working since 2009 with the grassroots communities to plant trees that will restore this critical water catchment area. GBM uses satellite imagery to monitor the growth of these young trees and the progress of the restoration work on the ground. So far, more than 60 springs of water have been revived and protected in this area that forms the water catchment for Zaina and Chania rivers, which are part of the headwaters of the Tana river – the largest river and the most important river 4 for economic growth of Kenya. IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM24
  • 24. 5towards scaling up seedlings productionin areas with identified gaps. A values-driven society of people As we continue to work with thecommunities to plant trees in these crit- who consciously work for continuedical watersheds, it is important for GBMto be able to monitor the growth of the improvement of their livelihoodstrees, the change in forest cover and the and a greener, cleaner world.impact of the restoration work over time. To ensure a high survival rate of the – Vision of The Green Belt Movementplanted trees, we closely monitor the prog-ress and growth of the young seedlings on sites to validate the trees that have been dously increased efficiency and effec-the ground for a minimum period of three reported being planted. This team uses tiveness in planning, implementation,years. GBM field staff support the commu- Trimble data collection devices running monitoring and reporting of these GBM-nities to map their tree planting sites using Esri’s ArcPad application, which allows supported community-based projects inGPS. They delineate the areal extent for them to view satellite imagery and maps Kenya. GBM is deeply grateful to Esri,each of their tree planting seasons on the of the area, and to access the project’s Astrium’s Planet Action, Trimble, Bluelandscape, the species and the number of data while in the field. After the 3rd year, Raster and Exelis (formerly ITT) for theirtrees planted on the site for periodic moni- satellite imagery was used to periodically enormous support in the development oftoring. To enhance integrity of the data monitor the progress of the trees as they this incredible capacity to plan, monitorsubmitted from the field, the Monitoring grow to full maturity and become a forest. and measure the impact of conservationand Evaluation team periodically visits the Geospatial technology has tremen- efforts in Kenya.IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 25
  • 25. Business Uses of Satellite Imagery ASTRIUM’S GEO-INFORMATION SERVICES AND DIGITALGLOBE 1 he public is familiar with satellite imagery through consumer applications — most notably, Google Earth. GeoEye (Herndon, Va.) and DigitalGlobe (Longmont, Colo.) sell their imagery mostly to government agencies. However, there is also a market for business applications of satellite imagery — such as monitoring agricultural production over large areas, counting cars in the parking lots of department stores, or identifying suitable locations for installing solar panels. They constitute a substantial portion of the sales of satellite imagery by DigitalGlobe, GeoEye and Astrium (based in Toulouse, France, with Astrium GEO-Infor- mation Services North America based in Chantilly, Va.). Astrium GEO-Information Services (a subsidiary of EADS with offices worldwide) specializes in Earth observation and navigation services. About half of the sales by its GEO-Information division are to governments, including defense, intelligence, and federal, state and local governments, according to Nicolas Stussi, the company’s director of business development in North America. The other half, he says, are to businesses — mainly oil and gas and agriculture, but also Web mapping, location- based services (LBS), and other emerging technologies. However, in the United States and Canada, the government share of the company’s sales is closer to 70 percent. Astrium does not currently have a major focus on sales to consumers, but it is pursuing opportunities on a case by case basis, through partners. DigitalGlobe gets roughly 60 percent of revenue from its work with the U.S. government and the balance from a combina- tion of international civil government, LBS, and other verticals, according to Aaron Crane, the company’s vice president of product management. IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM26
  • 26. From Delivering Pixelsto Delivering Services Large, global enterprises, such asmining and oil and gas companies, relyincreasingly on satellite imagery — forexample, to perform environmentalimpact analyses for particular opera-tions or to monitor their assets, such asequipment and buildings, especially inremote locations. “We’re seeing miningpick up globally,” says Crane. “Satellitesare global. Therefore, global businesses,which need to have knowledge some-what centrally about global events, lendthemselves to us.” Oil and gas has always been a keymarket for Astrium, Stussi says — espe-cially projects such as monitoring pipelinesand offshore platforms, using medium-resolution imagery. The new trend inthis market is the use of data as part ofservices. “We are all moving away from,essentially, delivering pixels because thereare so much data out there that I think thedifferentiator now is on the service-levelagreement you can offer to your customerusing your contents. We have full controlof the contents and now we can developdissemination systems around our contentto deliver these services. So that’s reallywhere we make the difference.” F IG U R E 1. Image from Astrium’s Pléiades satellite of an oil field in South Argentina, taken Mar. 2, 2012. Image courtesy of CNES and Astrium Services. F IG U R E 2 . WorldView-2 image of El Chino mine in New Mexico, taken Dec. 9, 2010. Image courtesy of DigitalGlobe. MATTEO LUCCIO Contributing Writer Pale Blue Dot LLC Portland, Ore. EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is based on interviews that the author conducted with Nicolas Stussi, Director of Business Development, Astrium GEO-Information Services North America, and Aaron Crane, Vice President of Product Management, DigitalGlobe. For similar information about GeoEye’s business uses of imagery and services, see article on page 30. 2
  • 27. For example, an oil and gas company launched Pléiades 1A in December 2011 ness intelligence is growing. For example,might ask Astrium to monitor an oil plat- and is scheduled to launch Pléiades 1B shopping malls and big box stores wantform in a very remote area that would later this year. to know how much traffic they get, daybe very expensive to monitor by sending Other satellite imagery companies’ in and day out, over a period of months,people on the ground. It would want to images are used for energy as well, from so that they can correlate these data withknow whether satellite imagery could oil and gas to mining, solar and wind. their advertising campaigns and otherprovide the information it required and See Figures 2 and 3 . promotional activities. They also wantwould need Astrium to guarantee that it Agriculture has long been Astrium’s to monitor their competition’s traffic. Tocould provide that information reliably. largest market segment, because it has do this, they can count the cars in their“We deliver change detection maps or had enough assets to provide the large, own parking lots and in their competitors’reports at the end of the day over given repetitive coverage required. The key much more quickly and cheaply by usingareas and it’s almost irrelevant, from element to be successful on the agri- satellite imagery than by deploying peopletheir perspective, what type of imagery culture market, Stussi explains, is not on the ground, provided that the revisitwe are using to deliver that informa- the resolution, the number of spectral rate is sufficiently high. Pléiades allowstion,” Stussi said. See Figure 1 . bands, the revisit time, or even the Astrium to address this need, says Stussi. Astrium has been expanding this number of satellites, but the ability totype of service with its Pléiades satellite, deliver data reliably, within 24 hours of Location-Based Serviceswhich has a 50-centimeter resolution and collection, and in a form that is usable An emerging market for satellitea footprint of 20 x 20 kilometers, with by the end customer. See Figure 4. imagery is LBS, which is constantlyits constellation of SPOT satellites and hungry for content. “We include in thewith its synthetic aperture radar (SAR) Business Intelligence LBS sector the map makers, the compa-TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X satellites. It The use of satellite imagery for busi- nies that are actually building maps using our information,” says Crane. 3 For example, he points out, Nokia’s Location and Commerce business unit creates its maps by overlaying vector data on top of DigitalGlobe’s imagery. Pléiades will also address the LBS market very well, Stussi says, because, typically, it requires very high resolu- tion imagery. However, SPOT imagery at 2.5-meter and 5-meter resolution is sometimes also very useful for LBS applications, he points out, because it allows much greater coverage to fit in the memory of mobile devices for use in disconnected environments (i.e., where they do not have network access). Planning Cellular Towers Another vertical segment with signifi- cant growth potential is planning the locations of cellular towers. For the devel- opment of next generation LTE or 4G networks, the exact location of towers in urban areas is even more critical than it was for 3G networks, Crane explains. This requires very good data on land use and topography, as well as high-resolu- tion imagery that network designers can use to make location decisions without having to visit each possible site.
  • 28. F IG U R E 3 . Solucar Towers in Seville, Spain image taken Mar. 1, 2011 by WorldView-2. Image courtesy of DigitalGlobe. F IG U R E 4 . Pléaides satellite image of crop circles from circular sprinkler systems in Texas, taken Jan. 27, 2012. Image courtesy of CNES and Astrium Services.Aerial Imagery In addition to its satellite imagery,DigitalGlobe also has aerial imagery thatit has worked with Microsoft to collect.In July, it will complete its coverage of the 4continental United States, wall-to-wall, at30-centimeter coverage, RGB and near- verify a claim. Additionally, the imagery spectrum of assets, from mid-res viewinfrared, says Crane. “We have this unique helps insurance companies with the to high-res view and SAR, and I thinkdataset that is really quite powerful. As logistics of emergency response, when that is really unique in the marketplace,”part of that collection, we also collected, they have to deploy staff to disaster sites, says Stussi. “If we want to be successfulat a slightly lower resolution, stereo Crane explains. For example, it can help in services, the best way is to be able topanchromatic data, with which we can them decide where to park their vehicles control the content.” Astrium will soonalso create surface models of the United and where to deliver supplies. have seven satellites it can use to provideStates. We are doing the exact same wall- these services. “It is going to be the firstto-wall collection for Western Europe and 3D time that so many resources will beit will complete a little bit later this year, Last year, DigitalGlobe began to available and accessible for commercialprobably in October.” deliver its data in elevation format. companies to tap into.” This aerial imagery, Crane explains, “Our satellites are capable of capturing DigitalGlobe’s set of sensors differswill enable the creation of 3D terrain different viewpoints of the same loca- from those of other satellite companies,models as well as inspect what is on the tion,” Crane explains. “We can use them Crane points out. Its 8-band sensor isground and measure the sizes and angles with fairly standard photogrammetric particularly useful for environmentalof roofs. This, for example, will allow techniques to create digital surface monitoring and land classification.companies that sell or install solar panels models and from that, to create a digital “The WorldView-3 satellite will have anto identify suitable houses without having terrain model.” By repeating this type of additional eight bands in the shortwaveto visit them individually. modeling on more than one frequency, infrared range. We have panchromatic, it is possible to measure changes in eight multispectral and eight shortwaveInsurance Companies volume. Therefore, users of this service infrared bands, which provide the first Insurance companies are also inter- include mining companies that want to super-spectral satellite — it is bothested in gathering such information monitor the size of their open pit mines. hyper-spectral and it is high the square footage of rooftops and The launch of DigitalGlobe’s World- With those bands, there are a bunch oftypically engage outside contractors to View satellites greatly increased the applications in mining and in oil and gasprovide it, says Crane. “We can provide amount of high-resolution multispectral exploration that we expect to support inthe latest imagery of a particular event coverage. “All our satellites — World- the coming years, once WorldView-3 is— like an unfortunate tornado, hurri- View-1, WorldView-2, and QuickBird — launched.”cane, landslide, or earthquake. Often, can do the stereo collection, but it’s very Astrium, DigitalGlobe and GeoEyewe can get our first images of some kind easy to purpose WorldView-1 for large all are gaining strongholds with enter-of crisis within 24 hours. That’s faster amounts of stereo collection and then prise customers, mostly in ag, insur-than you can scramble planes.” This build 3-dimensional models from those ance, energy and LBS. These industriesimagery helps insurance companies to collects,” says Crane. “We are starting to are very important to their growth andquickly determine which properties were see more growth in this sector.” long-term sustainability. While we didhit by the disaster, and therefore clearly not cover GeoEye in this article (see pagequalify for coverage, and which were Competitive Advantage 30 for an article about the solar poweroutside of the disaster area, and there- “Astrium is and will remain the industry), all three offer unique solu-fore where to require an inspection to only data provider today that has a full tions for their enterprise clients.IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 29
  • 29. Innovation in the Ene EARTH IMAGERY FOR SOLAR AND OIL & GAS ue to unprecedented energy needs around the world, govern- ments, corporations, NGOs and consumers are grappling with a number of difficult issues as they seek affordable and efficient energy solutions. In order to address these issues effectively, the energy industry is increasingly looking to companies that can supply Earth imagery, geospatial expertise and enabling tech- nologies in order to deliver clear, deep and timely intelligence. Companies using geospatial technology are playing an increasingly important role in providing insight that enables better decision making in three major areas: growing the renewable energy market, supporting oil and gas exploration, and planning out new energy infrastructures. Innovations like these help make renew- able energy sources accessible; they also address the global desire to maximize the impact of finite energy supplies. Renewable energy sources have become increasingly important to creating sustain- able energy supplies, providing cleaner energy and saving money. In particular, solar power has become one of the leading sectors in the energy industry. Worldwide, the solar industry has been growing by 50 percent annually. In the United States, renew- able solar power is quickly becoming a mainstream, affordable energy option – when taking into account current tax incentives, solar energy now costs less than many Americans pay for electricity. Solar energy is also a boon to the United States’ overall economy. Per dollar invested, solar is the highest job-producing energy industry in the country. According to National Solar Jobs Census, the solar industry had created more than 100,000 jobs by 2011, with another 25,000 anticipated in 2012. But despite improvements in photovoltaic panel technology, which has decreased the cost of solar panels systems, identifying productive locations to install solar panels has remained a costly process due to the intensive manual labor required to determine the value of a roof, including manual surveying and hand measurement. And this is precisely why some are slow to embrace solar energy: it can be prohibi- tively expensive to discover whether or not it will ever be worth the investment of time and money. Solar Power Predictive Analytics One promising venture to help make renewable TONY FRAZIER SVP Marketing energy cost-effective for both businesses and consumers GeoEye is being led by Geostellar and supported by Earth Herndon, Va. imagery provider GeoEye. IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM30
  • 30. rgy Industry 1 1 Geostellar created a breakthrough analytics platform that automatically deter- mines how quickly a given property owner can recoup an investment in solar energy. Its predictive algorithms allow site owners in target solar markets to easily determine key factors including rate of return, potential electricity savings and environmental benefits. Using 3D simulation, Geostellar models solar production and financial perfor- mance for the potential project site. The result is an accurate assessment of “solar score” for each property, including unbiased recommendations on equipment, financing and installation options. This solar value is analogous to the FICO scores 2 used by the financial services industry. Geostellar’s web-based software uses data streams from sources such as roof slope, shadows, weather patterns, local utility rates and solar energy subsidies to automate the assessment process. In the past, this was done piecemeal, using LiDAR data collected by airplanes, which was an expensive and time-consuming collection process with disparate municipalities. This is where GeoEye helps take the process to a much higher level. Digital surface models (DSMs) derived from Earth imagery enable Geostellar’s model to work on a national scale. To extend coverage nationally, Geostellar will now source remote sensing data from GeoEye and apply image processing capabilities developed by GeoEye Analytics to provide the data required to develop solar maps for every key metropolitan market in the United States. With the combination of Geostellar’s analytics platform and both data and analytics provided by GeoEye, the potential exists to inform the domestic market 3 for solar power, to decrease the cost and to increase the speed with which a consumer or business can assess the value of switching to solar power on their buildings. There is clearly a great deal of excitement in this work, as Geostellar closed a large Series B round of funding in May to support a national rollout in 2013 and launch a true solar marketplace. F IG U R E 1. Aerial imagery shows a neighborhood in northwest Washington D.C. that demonstrates the high variability of solar potential for different houses in the same neighborhood. The houses that are oriented east to west are showing mostly red and purple solar values, indicating less sunlight. The houses that are oriented from north to south have much more yellow and orange on the south-facing roof facet, indicating more direct sunlight. Credit: Geostellar. F IG U R E S 2- 3 . Aerial imagery shows individual structures up close. The green lines delineate where solar panels could be optimally placed. Credit: Geostellar. IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 31
  • 31. GEOSTELLAR CREATED A BREAKTHROUGH ANALYTICS Oil and Gas Applications PLATFORM Beyond renewable energy sources like solar energy, Earth imagery and geographic information systems (GIS) have been applied to improve site selection THAT for productive fields in oil and gas exploration. For one energy client, GeoEye AUTOMATICALLY Analytics demonstrated the predictive analysis capabilities of its advanced geospa- tial application tools to identify deepwater oil and gas fields in the offshore in the DETERMINES Gulf of Mexico in the U.S. HOW Analysts used their tools and expertise to combine data layers such as geologic strata, temperature, thickness and gravity/magnetic levels with productive wells QUICKLY in the Gulf of Mexico to create a productive well assessment. In addition to site A GIVEN selection, analysts were able to rank exploration efforts in the order of most revenue efficient, providing the client with valuable insight to make difficult busi- PROPERTY ness decisions. OWNER Geospatial technology is also used in energy infrastructure planning. One successful example is found in determining where the sea portion of a pipeline CAN should be constructed for one of the most complicated installations of a natural RECOUP gas pipeline. High resolution imagery taken by GeoEye’s IKONOS satellite was used by GeoEye’s customer ScanEx to evaluate the 1,830-kilometer Sakhalin- AN Khabarovsk-Vladivostok gas pipeline built as part of the Eastern Gas Program, INVESTMENT coordinated by OAO Gazprom in Russia. The pipeline was slated for construction through the Nevelsky Strait, the IN SOLAR narrowest part of the Strait of Tartary, which separates the Russian island of ENERGY. Sakhalin from the mainland. During the winter, the strait can become hazardous for infrastructure and facilities, because it is covered with ice measuring an average thickness of one meter. To aid in risk assessment of hazardous ice formations for the pipeline, high-resolution IKONOS satellite imagery of the Nevelsky Strait was used to prepare a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the shore ice in the strait using advanced software and the highly accurate Earth imagery data as a basemap. Thanks to satellite imagery, specialists were able to assess the features of the shore ice morphology in the Nevelsky Strait and determine the exact locations and sizes of ice formations. This data was incorporated into the survey and planning work for the pipeline to minimize construction in high-risk areas. These examples clearly demonstrate that there are many valuable uses for solu- tions that combine Earth imagery, geospatial expertise and enabling technology to deliver clear, deep and timely insight in the energy industry. In fields such as solar power, the impact could be almost transformative, helping create a clear market- place where, before, labor intensive manual processes reigned. In oil and gas, such solutions will help speed up the process of identifying new sources and reducing risks associated with transportation. As the energy industry evolves, governments, corporations, NGOs and consumers will all require information to make faster and better decisions to consider potential benefits and risks of any investments. These examples clearly illustrate the benefits geospatial technologies will have in transforming the energy industry. IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM32
  • 32. World Satellite Business Week The Westin - Paris 4 th Symposium on Earth Observation Business Sept. 13 -14, 2012 The unique international forum bringing together over 200 senior representatives of the Earth observation community to review business models, assess customer requirements and refine development strategies. An invaluable opportunity to network and strike business deals, the event is not to be missed. Over 40 senior government officials and CEOs confirmed as speakers Representation of the entire Earth observation value chain Participants from all world regions NETWORK – BENCHMARK – STRIKE DEALS Confirmed speakers include EO SATELLITE OPERATORS & DATA DISTRIBUTORS DEFENSE & CIVIL GOVERNMENT USERS Jeffrey R. Tarr, President & CEO, DigitalGlobe Eric Viglione, Deputy Director, Commercial Imagery, Products and Matthew O’Connell, President & CEO, GeoEye, Services, NGA Patrick Le Roch, Executive Director, Astrium Services / Col Ali Mohammed Alshehhi, Ground Station Manager, UAE SRC GEO-Information Tomaz Lovrencic, Director, EUSC Dave Hargreaves, Vice President & General Manager I2S, MDA Barbara Ryan, Director, GEO Secretariat Rani Hellerman, Vice President Business Development, ImageSat Charles S. Baker, Deputy Assistant Administrator for Satellite & Info. Marcello Maranesi, CEO, e-GEOS Services, NOAA Brett Michelson, Vice President of Business Development, RapidEye Einar Bjorgo, Senior Specialist, UNITAR/UNOSAT David Hodgson, Managing Director, DMCii Dr Stuart Minchin, Chief, Environmental Geoscience Division, Dr Miguel Bello Mora, Managing Director, Deimos Goup Geoscience Australia Dr Bruce Quirk, Landsat program coordinator, USGS Dr Anond Snidvongs, Executive Director, GISTDA Dr Gilberto Camara, General Director, INPE Azlikamil Napiah, Deputy Director General, Malaysia Remote Adrian Zevenbergen, Managing Director, European Space Imaging Sensing Agency Vladimir Gershenzon, General Director, ScanEx PRIVATE SECTOR USERS & SERVICE PROVIDERS Tadashi Sasagawa, Division Chief & Corporate Director, Satellite Ed Parsons, Geospatial Technologist, Google Business Division, PASCO Eszter Pattantyus, VP Map Unit, TomTom Zhou ZiKuan, Vice President, Beijing Eastdawn François Laborie, CCO, Vizrt Roger Kim, President & CEO, KAI Image David Morten, Managing Director, Fugro NPA MANUFACTURERS Nikolay Sevastiyanov, General Designer, Gazprom Space Systems David Taylor, CEO, Ball Aerospace Dr Jan-Petter Pedersen, VP, Products and Services, KSAT Luigi Pasquali, Deputy CEO, Thales Alenia Space Jean-Pierre Cauzac, Business Development Director, Radar Ed Irvin, Vice President International, Lockheed Martin Space Systems Application, CLS Bruno Le Stradic, Director of EO & Science, Astrium Satellites Haapasaari Heli, Head of Marine Pollution Response Section, Finnish Christopher Long, Vice President, Orbital Sciences Corporation Environment Institute SYKE REGISTRATION / INFORMATION: RUTH MANDENG + 33 1 49 23 75 24 - MANDENG@EUROCONSULT-EC.COM WWW.SATELLITE-BUSINESS.COMIMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 33 Official Partners Official Publications
  • 33. October 8-11, 2012 . Orlando, FloridaGaylord Palms Resort & Convention Center Four days of comprehensive agenda featuring More than 250 government and keynotes, panels, breakouts, and workshops industry exhibitors IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM Topics related to ISR, Modeling and Simulation, 34 Outdoor displays and demonstrations Big Data, Mission Planning and Rehearsal, Invaluable networking opportunities Homeland Security needs, and much more with almost 4,500 attendees Focus on U.S. and Allied partner issues and needs An amazing return on investment An exhibit hall with over 100,000 square feet for limited travel budgets
  • 34. COIN:TheFutureofCounterinsurgencyALTOGETHER QUANTITATIVE, SCARCELY ANALYTICAL...The military sets conditions that either inspirea native population to embrace the efforts of a counterinsurgency (COIN) in an exhibi-tion of solidarity, and thereby rejecting the legitimacy of an insurgency, or that moti-vate a population in an entirely different, inauspicious direction. Thus, operationalizingand analyzing key variables of combat effectiveness and, to a greater extent, the humanterrain, aid commanders in producing acutely sensitive understanding of the battlespace– one of often complete and otherwise certain ambiguity in irregular warfare. Successful counterinsurgencies, both tactical and strategic, require certaincomputational rigor. Without such rigor, decision makers inadvertently support quiteincorrect conventions. These incorrect conventions lead to seriously misplaced andspurious conclusions. As a community, data scientists and social scientists alike mustdevelop a framework that uses data to rationally generate, test, discard, and modifyoperational alternatives, theoretical constructions, and conventions of all types. The burden of COIN however, is the measurement of largely misunderstoodhuman, social and political factors of attitudes and behaviors over time and space. RICHARD HEIMANNAny lack of computational rigor is exacerbated by poor measurement, vis-a-vis, one Computational Spatial Social Scientist Data Tactics Corporationnever validating the other. Without good analysis, the value of measurement is never McLean, VAknown, while misplaced value on measurement marginalizes analysis. The efforts behalf of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and ISAF JointCommand (IJC) in measuring, analyzing and ultimately understanding the tepid Mr. Richard Heimann (@rheimann) recentlyhuman terrain (Heimann, 2011) and insurgency landscapes continue to be suspect. returned from Afghanistan where he It has been said that those who do not learn from history are ultimately doomed to supported the 82nd Airborne Division in Regional Command South as a quantitativerepeat it. If true, what ought to be learned after ten years and two concurrent wars? assessments analyst. He currently worksLessons of previous wars, especially shadows cast by the more recent ones, no matter for Data Tactics Corporporation focusinghow unsuitable, overwhelm commanders and policymakers alike. Compounding on advanced analytics, big data and cloud computing. He teaches Human Terrainmatters is data collection of vast proportion, at varied scale and complexity both Analysis at George Mason University,within and among campaigns, presenting certain challenges for decision makers. is adjunct faculty at The University of The unabated blending of these cognitive pitfalls and computational hurdles leads Maryland, Baltimore County, and also supports DARPA in Arlington so-called “big data” problems of consequential significance, the basis of whichIMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 35
  • 35. COIN is a data-rich, but theory-poor environment. The lack of a theoretical framework is the paradigm for big data and necessitates exploratory analysis and large-scale pattern discovery and recognition. is the lack of a sound theoretical COIN wins if he does not lose. The conventional Tommy Franks noted how counting framework. A notional problem is that army loses if it does not win.” bodies would not be used as a metric for “... we (often) have more data than [we] While many deny the parallels success. Major General Michael Flynn think, but (often) need less data than between the wars in Vietnam and too noted that old-school metrics like [we] have,” (Hubbard, 2010). Hubbard Afghanistan, certain parallels do exist. body counts were being focused on too is suggesting, quite evidently, that data One striking example is the strong much, perhaps remembering the credi- lacks uniform utility or explanatory desire for measurement and quantita- bility problems of measuring body counts power. This fact informs measurement tive analysis, underscored by the lack during the Vietnam War or the dubious and analysis in ways that have not yet of a theoretical framework. The Mili- inference associated with the analysis of been realized. tary Assistance Command Vietnam body counts and other kinetic events. and ISAF measured One certainly has to wonder what is to IED Attacks in Afghanistan: 2005-2008 the battlespace of be measured if body counts are not. It irregular warfare seems that in the absence of body counts, and rightfully so. commanders instead rely on Significant The number of Activities (SIGACTS). SIGACTS are the engagements by counting of violent attacks by or on coali- third-party coun- tion forces. The most notable perhaps are terinsurgencies has Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs). IED Attacks in Iraq: 2003-2008 been plentiful over Measurement errors do exist with the past 100 years, SIGACTS. The system that stores and given the mili- the data, Combined Information tary superiority of Data Network Exchange (CIDNE) is the U.S., it seems certainly not perfect. However, the plausible that the source provides an unusually objective irregular model and consistent base of information. The will be used with error inherent in the data seems rather feverish frequency. systematic. Put differently, the errors 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Historical third- appear to be irregular, and over and Found & Cleared IEDs *Ineffective defined as an party counterin- under counts seem to be random and Ineffective IED Attacks* IED incident that fails to 1 surgencies include lack any structural regularity. IED Attacks with Coalition Force Casualties produce a coalition casualties the French in The most important acknowledge- Algeria, the British ment however, is that measurement F IG U R E 1. IED attacks are a rather common tactic of insurgents and represent one kind of SIGACT. Trends are reported to in Malaya, and the occurs only when coalition forces are commanders and decision makers in a fashion similar to Figure 1, U.S. in the Philip- present to observe the act. This type ignoring spatial patterning and any de-trending of time-series data. pines, Vietnam, of observer bias relies on an inductive Iraq and Afghani- inferential model built upon uncertain Theoretical Framework stan. The empirical perspectives are rich ground. The Joint IED Defeat Organi- Henry Kissinger poignantly summa- and noteworthy, but may also be deter- zation (JIEDDO) estimates that 50% rized Vietnam when he said, “We fought ministic. COIN suffers from physics of IEDs go undetected (Erwin, 2010), a military war; our opponents fought a envy; it is a data-rich, but theory-poor adding additional complexity with political one. We sought physical attri- environment. The lack of a theoretical forms of a selection bias to an already tion; our opponents aimed for our framework is the paradigm for big data enfeebled approach to measurement. psychological exhaustion. In the process, and necessitates exploratory analysis The real issue with SIGACTS is the we lost sight of one of the cardinal and large-scale pattern discovery and weak inferential model. The United maxims of guerrilla war: the guerrilla recognition. States spent $3.63B in 2006 on a largely IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM36
  • 36. technical, engineering-based Counter COIN has value; these measures are not Computational Counterinsurgency -IED effort, most of which went to an elixir, however, and are misused with Spatial Pattern Recognition andJIEDDO. JIEDDO has certainly saved a frequency close to their rate of exploi- Spatial Statisticslives and this article does not contend tation. For example, interdicted weapon David Kilcullen (2009) explains thatwith that fact. However, the ability to caches give a false sense of success; the today’s conflicts are a complex hybridunderstand the true nature of violence insurgency can still win the population, of contrasting trends that counterin-has been remarkably elusive. JIEDDO as the French learned from their inter- surgencies continue to conflate, blur-relies on rather primitive statistics to diction efforts in Algeria. On the other ring the distinction between local andjustify its claims of success. See Figure 1. hand, COIN cannot win the war and global struggles, and thereby enormouslyThese metrics do not effectively capture lose the country, akin to Vietnam where complicating the challenges faced.or accurately reflect performance of tactical success did not equate to stra- Kilcullen steps through local and globalCOIN. IEDs prevail due to their ease tegic success. The insurgency wishes to struggles and outlines the importance ofof assembly, small support structures out-administer the counter efforts, not commensurate policy. This process canas well as their psychological impact necessarily defeat efforts tactically. be characterized roughly as useful spatialon both friendly and civilian popula- Understanding SIGACTS requires models whose statistically significanttions. For an organization that origi- acknowledgement of a bidirectional global variables exhibit strong regionalnally funded human terrain, little is causal model. In a rather counter-intui- variation to inform local policy, and asknown about the relationship between tive manner, coalition forces’ mere pres- statistically significant global variablesSIGACTS and COIN effectiveness. ence accounts for the variability in the that exhibit little regional variation toMore attention ought to be paid to data, despite intuition suggesting that inform region-wide policy. See Figure 2 .violence as a process rather than a increased patrols will have a negative Unfortunately, computational COINrather broad and imprecise act. As a relationship with SIGACTS. An increase relies on time-series data almost exclu-process it would be understood in the in SIGACTS maycontext of counterinsurgency rather simply be a reflection 2than a result of an insurgency and of our own increasecomparatively to other types of violent in activity if onlyacts. Counter-IED research draws too influenced by force Statistically significant global variables that Statistically significant global variables that exhibitoften off of its own dependent variable. strength. exhibit strong regional little regional variation variation inform local policy inform region-wide policy George Box said that all models are COIN operations,wrong, but some are useful. The best in this case, are notmodels in Afghanistan rely on primitive exogenous. This isstatistics and ignore any spatial struc- instinctively knownture. Worse, analysts seem impotent to by commanders butadapt. Certain isotropic properties are misunderstood byexhibited in all time-series analyses. The data analysts. Sadly,isotropic properties of time-series anal- commanders falselyysis are easy to understand but do not accept this defec- coefficient surface coefficient surfacecontain the merits of spatial analysis, tive model because itmost notably anisotropy. The unidirec- is what is reported. F IG U R E 2 . This figure reflects the utility of localized statistics. Variablestional nature of time-series analysis is a Broadly, the loop of that show little regional change (right) inform global COIN, and variables that show significant regional change (left) inform local COIN.simpler model, but not the most useful, causality between theas it fails to account for the true multidi- independent and dependent variables of sively, thus collating all actors into onerectional nature of COIN. Spatial data, a COIN model leads to endogeneity. The fighting force operating on an assumedas it turns out, is special. simultaneity between the two factors homogeneous population base. Opera- Stathis Kalyvas wrote in The Logic highlights the weak causal model and tional analytical workflow consists ofof Violence in Civil War (2006) of the may suggest reverse causality. The near mere plotting of temporal patterns andnon-monotonic function of violence complete disregard for endogeneity indi- describing discrete time {Xt-1} over time(i.e. decreases in violence don’t always cates a fundamental failure in empirical {Xt) change. The nature of insurgency,require mission effectiveness). An insur- COIN research. The model is measur- like most phenomena, is change overgency is simply more than violence and ably complex; useful models, however, time and space. Kalyvas examines howCOIN is more than counting violent should remain the goal, and SIGACTS strategies vary temporally and spatially,acts. The measurement of SIGACTS in should be used with caution. focusing on the spatial variation of controlIMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM 37
  • 37. on the part of the counterinsurgency and theoretical evidence to support certain of variation, envisioning the patterns in the spatial variation of violence. Kalyvas operations. Temporal patterns just fail to residuals, and relating these patterns to concludes that violence is nonrandom and have the same impact on COIN planning other variables. nonstationary. Insurgency, he concludes and policy as does spatial data, driven by does not resemble a Hobbesian world. In measures of spatial dependence and spatial “You have to understand not just other words, violence does exhibit spatial heterogeneity. Statistically significant local what we call the military terrain…the structure and commensurate spatially statistics prevent the Lake Wobegon Effect high ground and low ground. It’s about explicit theory should follow a blended of a uniformly above average battlespace, understanding the human terrain, idiographic and nomothetic methodology. decomposing patterns and exposing really understanding it.” spatial spillovers, spatial externalities, -Gen. David H. Petraeus, 10 structural instability, spatial drifts and U.S. Director of CIA 8 spatial regimes. 6 Furthermore, certain social processes 4 Big COIN Data cannot be explained without greater 2 Certain computational complexities incorporation of space. The inflexibility 0 are evident in COIN, whether small data of traditional social theory and COIN y x 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 or big data. Due to turnover caused by theory, regardless of space, is slowly 3 multiple deployments, one wonders if giving way to new spatially explicit COIN the same lessons have been learned one theories. The current developments and F IG U R E 3 . Global regression models represent an average COIN. One best of fit year at a time for ten consecutive years interest in computational COIN are aided line must be made whereas local regression versus an enemy with better memory. by broader trends in computational social fits multiple local averages to better The reality is that no one knows more science, data science, and spatial statistics. represent the counterinsurgency landscape. on their last day of a deployment and less Kurt Vonnegut, a 20th century Amer- on their first. Big COIN Data provides ican writer, is quoted as saying that any Time-series analysis shares some an expedited learning curve and fluid search for the one will ultimately prove similar challenges as spatial analysis. understanding of the human terrain from to be incomplete. Computational COIN Shared challenges include the modifiable campaign to campaign, deployment to is built upon the idea of heuristics. The time unit problem, analogous to the well deployment, and region to region. pursuit of an exhaustive singular metric known modifiable areal unit problem, Direct observation and blink to understand a complex space is not intrinsic heterogeneity, and others. The (Gladwell 2005) qualitative assessments realistic. Spatial data analysis offers a most interesting perhaps is Simpson’s by battlespace owners will always outpace balanced blend of idiographic and nomo- Paradox and the spatial companion, the timeliness of computational counter- thetic laws, offering local and global Spatial Simpson’s Paradox (SSP). SSP insurgency. These qualitative assessments, understanding of an insurgency and of represents the analytical equivalent to however, tend to be empirically deter- the native population. The emergence of Kilcullen’s central thesis (see Figure 3 ), ministic and thus inappropriate for the big COIN data allows all available data where poor COIN operations for one construction of COIN theory. The transi- to be analyzed. It may challenge the tradi- group or location and poor COIN opera- tion to computational COIN is not one of tional laws of parsimony, finding elusive tions for another group or location are mere desire but of absolute necessity. omitted variables causing the Simpson’s good for everyone, if analysts just collapse The journey, however, has not been Paradox, and calibrating local spaces over the grouping variable or over space. without missteps. The efficacy of compu- causing Spatial Simpson’s Paradox. COIN operations that achieve a signifi- tational COIN has seen only limited Big Data deviates significantly cant positive effect on average might still success. That limitation is due to a number from traditional methods of analyzing be undesirable because they leave a large of factors, but mainly that results often geographic data, the birth of which dates fraction of the population worse off. describe known variation, in a chorop- back to the quantitative revolution in Uprooting insurgency, for example leth map or time-series, for example, due geography during the 1960s. Perhaps the from city centers, has shown to have a to known factors. If Big COIN Data is to emergence and merging of these efforts negative correlation with civilian casu- be successful, then results must relate the solve a number of enduring problems in alties as well as an impact on insurgent unexplained components of variation, calibrating the battlespace of irregular tactics. Spatially explicit theory, e.g. particularly spatial variation for analysts warfare. The times of quite idiographic proximate casualty hypothesis, (Gartner, and decision makers. Our visual-cogni- surveying of local tribes and inventory of Segura, and Wilkening 1997) is in greater tive system is ill-suited to the task of body counts, SIGACTS, and other kinetic need for COIN operations and provides mentally removing known components and combat-related metrics are waning. IMAGING NOTES // SUMMER 2012 // WWW.IMAGINGNOTES.COM38
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