Human Terrain Analysis at George Mason University (DAY 1)

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First lecture in a three day class on Human Terrain Analysis. The lecture is a state of the discipline talk with historical and contemporary examples of HTA.

First lecture in a three day class on Human Terrain Analysis. The lecture is a state of the discipline talk with historical and contemporary examples of HTA.

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  • 1. Richard Heimann © 2011 Human Terrain Analysis GIS270 George Mason University ! Richard Heimann
  • 2. Richard Heimann © 2011 HTA: A working definition ! he ‘[Spatial] Social Revolution’ in the Department of Defense and elsewhere... ! …a state of the discipline talk; what is HTA & what is it not?! ! HTA = Geography…but, how did things get so bad? ! The ‘Classic Debate in Geography’ GIS 270: Today’s talk
  • 3. Richard Heimann © 2011 Human Terrain Analysis Definition: (U) Human Terrain Analysis (HTA): A multi-int, multidisciplinary scientific approach to describe and predict spatial and temporal patterns of human behavior by analyzing the attributes, actions, reactions and interactions of groups or individuals in the context of their environment. HTA incorporates elements of Human Geography in a spatial, temporal context. It is one component of GEOINT.
  • 4. Richard Heimann © 2011 HTAPP… Prior to 2010, a two-year Human Terrain Analysis Pilot Project (HTAPP) that resulted in findings and recommendations on how to best institutionalize human geography elements into GEOINT products and capabilities. ! The pilot began the process of identifying and developing advanced methodologies to incorporate socio-cultural data analysis within a GEOINT context. Implementation of the HTAPP’s findings and recommendations enabled analysts to more effectively discover, validate, consolidate, visualize, characterize and model socio-cultural data in the context of the GEOINT analytic framework.
  • 5. Richard Heimann © 2011 …what were the results? Human Terrain Analysis Pilot Project (HTAPP) produced two-day seminars to introduce emerging concept, terms and practical examples of Human Terrain Analysis. ! The seminar addressed challenges associated with Human Terrain Analysis (HTA), examined spatial and temporal analytical methods, explored potential applications of HTA to intelligence issues, and identified implications of HTA’s contribution to GEOINT. ! HTAPP also produced a white paper published in the Fall issue to the a classified tradecraft journal demonstrating the merits of human terrain analysis. The article analyzed voting data, as well as other socio-economic data using spatial econometrics methodology.
  • 6. Richard Heimann © 2011 HTA Foundation Themes: ! (U) Research indicates the following "themes" are common for all efforts to establish a foundational baseline of a specific Area of Interest. ! 1. Demographics (e.g., population characteristics and distribution) 2. Religion (e.g., groups, subgroups, facilities) 3. Language (e.g., groups, subgroups, spatial distribution) 4. Ethnicity (e.g., tribes, clans, affiliations) 5. Economics (e.g., businesses, livelihoods, trade routes, distribution networks) 6. Education (e.g., schools, literacy) 7. Land Use, Cover and Ownership (e.g., agriculture, herding, commercial/industrial) 8. Medical/Health Environment(e.g., hospitals, doctors, disease, infant mortality) 9. Groups (e.g., social, political, ideological) 10. Communication/Media Preferences(e.g., TV/radio coverage, newspapers) 11. Transportation 12. Significant Events (history)(e.g., conflicts, crisis, political changes)
  • 7. Richard Heimann © 2011 Human Terrain Analysis ! ! “You have to understand not just what we call the military terrain…the high ground and low ground. It’s about understanding the human terrain, really understanding it.” GEN David H. Petraeus, USA
  • 8. Richard Heimann © 2011 • Geography is the study of the earth’s surface as the space within which human population live - their interaction with the environment and each other. • Space is the unifying theme for geographers. • Geography is the science of space and place. • Geographers are interested in … • Where things are located on the earth’s surface, • Why they are located where they are, • How places differ from one another, • How people interact with the environment. • Geographers were among the first scientists to sound the alarm that human-induced changes to the environment are beginning to threaten the balance of life, but some of the notable contributions to geography have been on the part of non geographers. GIS 270: What is Geography?
  • 9. Richard Heimann © 2011 Despite having a highly education society, Americans are arguably the world’s most geographically ignorant people. ! By comparison, children throughout much of the world are exposed to geographic training in both primary and secondary schools. ! Most Americans learn what little geography they know in elementary or middle school. ! In the United States, the last time a student hears the word geography is usually in the third grade. ! Concern over geographical illiteracy led President Reagan to declare November 15-21, 1987 as the first Geography Awareness Week (a joint resolution of the One Hundredth Congress) GIS 270: Geographic Literacy
  • 10. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: Geographic Literacy The National Geographic Society released the Roper Public Affairs 2006 Geographic Literacy Study in May, 2006 ! 510 interviews were conducted among a sample of 18- to 24-year old adults in the continental United States between December 17, 2006 and January 20, 2006) The sample has a margin or error of +/- 4.4 % at the 95% confidence level ! Survey results … Over 6 in ten (63%) of those surveyed could not locate Iraq on a map of the Middle East Nearly nine in ten (88%) could not identify Afghanistan on a map of Asia Seven in ten (70%) could not find North Korea on a map, and 63% did not know its border with South Korea is the most heavily fortified in the world Sizable percentages did not know that Sudan and Rwanda are in located in Africa (54% and 40%, respectively)
  • 11. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: Geographic Literacy Three-quarters could not find Indonesia on a world map and were unaware that a majority of Indonesia’s population is Muslin, making it the largest Muslim country in the world. ! A third or more could not find Louisiana or Mississippi on a map of the United States. ! Only 18% could correctly answer a multiple-choice question about the most widely spoken native language in the world. (5 Part Questionnaire) ! Although half said map reading skills are “absolutely necessary” in today’s world, many Americans lack basic practical skills necessary for safety and employment in today’s world. ! One-third (34%) would go in the wrong direction in the event of an evacuation One third (32%) would miss a conference call scheduled with colleagues in another time zone. Recommended Link 2006 National Geographic – Roper Survey of Geographic Literacy http://www.nationalgeographic.com/roper2006/findings.html
  • 12. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: Geographic Literacy This college-level course introduces students to the systematic study of patterns and processes that have shaped human understanding, use, and alteration of Earth's surface. Students employ spatial concepts and landscape analyses to analyze human social organization and its environmental consequences. They also learn about the methods and tools geographers use in their science and practice. Score Percent 5 11.6% 4 16.7% 3 21.9% 2 16.6% 1 33.2% In the 2009 administration, 50,730 students took the exam and the mean score was a 2.57. 
  • 13. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: Geographic Literacy http://www.benjaminbarber.com/bio.html
  • 14. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: Geographic Literacy
  • 15. Richard Heimann © 2011 Geography had a number of problems, including: 1. It was overly descriptive: Geography followed a set format for the inventory of physical and cultural features; 2. It was almost purely educational: Regions don't really exist; 3. It failed to explain geographic patterns: Geography was descriptive and did not explain why patterns were the way they were; Where attempts at explanation did exist, they favored historical approaches. 4. The biggest problem of geography was the fact that it was unscientific: …the Nomothetic & Idiographic debate in geography begins! …all in a time after WWII, which science and mathematics enjoyed unrivaled importance GIS 270: Geographic Literacy
  • 16. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS
  • 17. Richard Heimann © 2011 The common ground between information processing and the many fields using spatial analysis techniques. (Tomlinson, 1972) Tomlinson: Very General - ‘common ground’ A powerful set of tools for collecting, storing, retrieving, transforming, and displaying spatial data from the real world. (Burroughs, 1986) Burroughs: ‘tool box’ but how items are linked together. A computerized database management system for the capture, storage, retrieval, analysis and display of spatial (locationally defined) data. (NCGIA, 1987) NCGIA: DBMS for spatial data but adds analyze and display. A decision support system involving the integration of spatially referenced data in a problem solving environment. (Cowen, 1988) Cowen: Adds integration and decision support to solve problems. GIS 270: What is GIS?
  • 18. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: What is GIS? A map with a database behind it; a virtual representation of the real world and its infrastructure. !
  • 19. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: What is GIS? Spatial data (where) Specifies location; stored in a shapefile (.shp), geodatabase or similar geographic file. ! Attribute (descriptive) data (what, how much, when) Specifies characteristics at that location, natural or human-created stored in a data base table. ! GIS systems traditionally maintain spatial and attribute data separately, then “join” them for display or analysis. !
  • 20. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: What is GIS? Regular Lattice Irregular Lattice Irregular Lattice
  • 21. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: What is GIS? Raster Model Area is covered by grid with (usually) equal-sized, square cells; Regular Lattices. Attributes are recorded by assigning each cell a single value based on the majority feature (attribute) in the cell, such as land use type. Image data is a special case of raster data in which the attribute is a reflectance value from the geomagnetic spectrum Cells in image data often called pixels (picture elements) ! Vector Model The fundamental concept of vector GIS is that all geographic features in the real work can be represented either as: Points or dots (nodes): Cities, human sensors (like Tweets or Flickr), individual obs (e.g. crime incident). Lines (arcs): movement, connectedness, networks Areas (polygons): Countries, States, Census Tracts, Cities, Irregular Lattices - Multivariate in nature.
  • 22. Richard Heimann © 2011 HTA/Social Science Revolution…
  • 23. Richard Heimann © 2011 In 1998, the National Science Foundation undertook a program designed to develop the infrastructure for social science research. In the first round of competition one of the outstanding proposals was for a Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science (CSISS), submitted by the University of California, Santa Barbara, with Professor Michael Goodchild as the Principle Investigator. CSISS was to develop new computational and analytic tools for spatial data, facilitate the development of social science data achieves based on geographic data, train scientists in the use of the most advanced tools, and foster the development of the emerging community of social scientists who integrate spatial data into their research. GIS 270: HTA/SISS gains momentum…
  • 24. Richard Heimann © 2011 Citations using GeoDa increased from 42 in 2004 to 70 in 2007-08 and to 567 in 2009-10 ! ESRI introduces regression tools at v 9.3, including Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR) ! GeoDa with more than 89,0026 downloads (May 2013) GIS 270: HTA/SISS gains momentum…
  • 25. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: HTA/SISS gains momentum…
  • 26. Richard Heimann © 2011 Spatial Demography (1990-2003) 3yr rolling average 21% increase GIS 270: HTA/SISS gains momentum…
  • 27. Richard Heimann © 2011 Attended Applied Anthropology / Archaeology 59 123 Criminology 21 45 Demography, Population & Health 98 227 Economics 63 192 Environmental Studies 18 33 Epidemiology 11 27 GIS 30 75 History 7 10 Human Geography 123 422 Political Science 55 95 Public Policy 17 80 Regional Science 5 6 Sociology 115 200 Statistics 9 22 Urban Studies & Urban Planning 44 133 Other 31 99 Totals: 706 1789 CSISS Residential Workshops (2000-2007) Non - Geography Ratio: N= 553 (Attended) 69.2% N = 1292 (Applied) 60.5% GIS 270: HTA/SISS gains momentum…
  • 28. Richard Heimann © 2011 $30 billion industry (U.S. Labor Department) ! Robert M. Gates in September 2007 authorized a $40 million expansion of the program ! Significant NSF Funding (e.g. CSISS) ! Demand for Spatial Analysis expertise in social sciences: ! Growing volume of social science research in GIS, Spatial Statistics & Spatial Analysis (Changing academic landscape) ! Similar (to CSISS) programs being developed at Brown, Harvard, & Arizona State University GIS 270: HTA/SISS gains momentum…
  • 29. Richard Heimann © 2011 http://www.ocpe.gmu.edu/programs/gis/human_terrain.php GIS 270: HTA/SISS gains momentum…
  • 30. Richard Heimann © 2011 http://humanterrainsystem.army.mil/Default.aspx GIS 270: HTA/SISS gains momentum…
  • 31. Richard Heimann © 2011 http://geodacenter.asu.edu/ GIS 270: HTA/SISS gains momentum…
  • 32. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: HTA/SISS gains momentum…
  • 33. Richard Heimann © 2011 Ph.D. Programs in Spatially Integrated Social Science GIS 270: HTA/SISS gains momentum…
  • 34. Richard Heimann © 2011 Spatial Structures in the Social Sciences GIS 270: HTA/SISS gains momentum…
  • 35. Richard Heimann © 2011 Human Terrain Analysis before it was Human Terrain Analysis. GIS 270: Classic Examples
  • 36. Richard Heimann © 2011 Yanktons a Band of Sioux - 1000 Souls Here the different Tribes meet in Friendship and collect Stone for Pipes. GIS 270: Classic Examples
  • 37. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: Classic Examples
  • 38. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: Classic Examples F. Ratzel, C. Wissler, & C. Sauer: Culture Area Research and Mapping (1850’s)
  • 39. Richard Heimann © 2011 Above Average Below Average Average GIS 270: Classic Examples Henry Mayhew: London Labor & London Poor (1861)
  • 40. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: Classic Examples André-Michel Guerry’s (1833) Essai sur la Statistique Morale de la France
  • 41. Richard Heimann © 2011 Minard Map - French Invasion of Russia http://www.khanacademy.org/video/french-invasion-of-russia?playlist=History GIS 270: Classic Examples Charles Joseph Minard: Mapping Napoleon's March (1861)
  • 42. Richard Heimann © 2011 “No. 34 is occupied by the widow of a boatman. He committed suicide and left her with eleven children. Some have died, and she has five here now, two of whom go to work, and three to school. She makes sailor jackets, but is nearly blind. Struggles hard for her children…” GIS 270: Classic Examples Maps Descriptive of London Poverty (1899)
  • 43. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: Classic Examples Slums of the Great Cities Survey Maps, Florence Kelley (1893)
  • 44. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: Classic Examples Ellen Semple: The Anglo-Saxons of the Kentucky Mountains (1901)
  • 45. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: Contemporary Examples
  • 46. Richard Heimann © 2011 The Geography of the Nazi Vote: Context, Confession, and Class in the Reichstag Election of 1930 Author(s): John O'Loughlin, Colin Flint, Luc Anselin Source: Annals of the Association of American Geographers GIS 270: Contemporary Examples
  • 47. Richard Heimann © 2011 STRUCTURAL COVARIATES OF U.S. COUNTY HOMICIDE RATES: INCORPORATING SPATIAL EFFECTS* ROBERT D. BALLER GIS 270: Contemporary Examples
  • 48. Richard Heimann © 2011 Paul Krugman loosely defines economic geography as the study of economic issues in which location matters. Economic theory usually assumes away distance. Krugman argues that it is time to put it back - that the location of production in space is a key issue both within and between nations. New Economic Geography implies that instead of spreading out evenly around the world, production will tend to concentrate in a few countries, regions, or cities, which will become densely populated but will also have higher levels of income. GIS 270: Spatial Turn
  • 49. Richard Heimann © 2011 Paul Collier in his book The Bottom Billion argues that being landlocked in a poor geographic neighborhood is one of four major development "traps" that a country can be held back by. In general, he found that when a neighboring country experiences better growth, it tends to spill over into favorable development for the country itself. For landlocked countries, the effect is particularly strong, as they are limited from their trading activity with the rest of the world. "If you are coastal, you serve the world; if you are landlocked, you serve your neighbors.” GIS 270: Spatial Turn
  • 50. Richard Heimann © 2011 In The Truly Disadvantaged: The Inner City, the Underclass, and Public Policy (1987), William Julius Wilson was an early exponent, one of the first to enunciate at length the spatial mismatch theory for the development of a ghetto underclass in the United States. Spatial mismatch is the sociological, economic and political phenomenon associated with economic restructuring in which employment opportunities for low- income people are located far away from the areas where they live. GIS 270: Spatial Turn
  • 51. Richard Heimann © 2011 • Do spatial perspectives draw on and contribute to theory in the social sciences? • What can we learn about HTA/SISS using these classic and contemporary examples? hint:law • Is there a community of spatial social science and can its growth be measured? • Is there a systematic and repeatable way to approach HTA? hint:we will talk about this GIS 270: Spatial Turn
  • 52. Richard Heimann © 2011 GIS 270: QUESTIONS?!
  • 53. Richard Heimann © 2011 Introduction to GeoDa (Lab: GeoDa Workbook (Chp. 1 – 3, Optional Chp. 5) ! 60 minutes… GIS 270: LAB