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011314 Earthquakes, Superstorms, & the Fundamentals of Risk Management
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011314 Earthquakes, Superstorms, & the Fundamentals of Risk Management

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The objectives of this presentation are: …

The objectives of this presentation are:

To improve understanding of the fundamental and mandatory integrative approach to Risk Management processes and knowledge areas.

To show that Risk Management of natural disasters is practically about managing the risk consequence as man has no control of their probability.

To highlight some of the critical Risk Management elements needed for success including the use of cause & effect analysis.

To share with other professionals some interesting principles & concepts that will lead to a more effective Risk Management.

To differentiate Risks, Facts, Issues and Problems.

To emphasize the importance of a good quality plan.

To provide a high level list on how to address risks, issues and problems.

Published in Business , Technology
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  • Source: Johnson, A. (2014). Evacuations Begin as Hagupit, Now a Super Typhoon, Heads for Philippines.Retrieved from http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/evacuations-begin-hagupit-now-super-typhoon-heads-philippines-n261166
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  • The Weather Channel reported that Typhoon Hagupit was pushing sustained winds of 150 mph, with gusts to 185 mph, headed west-northwest toward Tacloban City, a central Philippine city of 218,000 people about 350 miles southeast of Manila. The Philippines' national weather bureau pegged its chance of direct landfall at 75 percent probability (Johnson, A., 2014).
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  • As of December 3, 2014 (5:14 PM, Philippine Time), evacuations are again under way in places that has not even fully recovered yet from the previous onslaught. This new storm threatens to be the strongest this year.
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  • If one follows the meteorological history of the Philippines, one concludes right away that it is probably the typhoon belt of South East Asia or maybe, of Asia overall. Just after the one year anniversary of the devastating Typhoon Yolanda (Code-named Haiyan), the Philippines braces for Typhoon Hagupit (known locally as Ruby) following the same path as Haiyan.
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  • Well done! I appreciated the multi-dimensional consideration given to this presentation. Thank you for posting it and letting me know about it.
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  • 1. EARTHQUAKES, SUPER STORMS AND THE FUNDAMENTALS OF RISK MANAGEMENT Revision 4: January 13, 2014
  • 2. EARTHQUAKES, SUPER STORMS & THE FUNDAMENTALS OF RISK MANAGEMENT AUTHOR Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP® Rufran has a wide-range of expertise & specialization while working in the Manufacturing, Petrochemical, Oleo-chemicals, Oil and Gas, Education & Training Industries for more than 36 years in various roles and capacities. He has worked in Asia, Africa, Middle East and North America. His expertise includes: Primavera Database Administration, Programs and Project Planning & Scheduling, Qualitative/Quantitative Risk Management, Problem Solving, Project Management, Cost Engineering, Project Control, Construction Management/Coordination, Project Review & Implementation Audit, Estimating, Engineering & Design, Fab/Mod Management, Preventive & Predictive ReliabilityBased Maintenance, Operation, Material Selection, Warehousing, EH&S, and Training. 2
  • 3. PURPOSE To improve the understanding of the fundamental and mandatory integrative approach to Risk Management processes and knowledge areas. To show that Disaster Management is practically about managing the risk consequence. To highlight the critical risk and disaster management elements needed for success including the use of cause & effect analysis. To share with other professionals & disciplines some interesting principles & concepts that will lead to a more effective risk management. To differentiate Risks, Facts, Issues and Problems. To emphasize the importance of a good quality plan. To provide a high level summary list on how risks, issues and problems can be addressed. 3
  • 4. THE PHILIPPINE SITUATION Around 19 tropical cyclones or storms enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in a typical year and of these usually 6 to 9 make landfall. The Philippines lies along the Pacific Ring of Fire, which causes the country to have frequent seismic and volcanic activity. Much larger numbers of earthquakes of smaller magnitude occur very regularly due to the meeting of major tectonic plates in the region. According to Wikipedia (2013), approximately 18 major earthquakes as high as 7.5 Richter Scale damaged the country from 2001 to present. That’s 1.5 Earthquake a year with an average 6.44 intensity. Sources: Colleen A. Sexton (2006). Philippines in Pictures Wikipedia (2013).List of Earthquakes in the Philippines 4
  • 5. SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN (2013) One of the most powerful typhoons on record slammed into the Philippines on November 7– 8, 2013. recorded sustained winds of 235 kilometers (145 miles) per hour and gusts to 275 kilometers (170 miles) per hour. According to remote sensing data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, sustained winds approached 315 kph (195 mph) just three hours before landfall, with gusts to 380 kph (235 mph). Source: Earth Observatory, (2013). ImagesNASA 5
  • 6. SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN Source: Samenow, J. (2013).Washington Post Haiyan's diameter was an estimated 600 kilometers. It practically covered the entire Philippines archipelago. 6
  • 7. HAIYAN AFTERMATH Source: Measham, F. (2013).The Guardian, and De Castro, E. (2013) .Buzzfeed.com It was painfully clear to the world that risk factors such as ethics, political will, planning, coordination, execution, monitoring, control, risk perception, management approach, logistics, communication, materials, equipment, tools, resources, protocols, and many others determined the extent of the Haiyan devastation. 7
  • 8. HAIYAN AFTERMATH (CONTINUATION…) Source: Gilbeaux, K., 2013.Global Resilience System 8
  • 9. DEVASTATION WAS UNIMAGINABLE! Source: Measham, F. (2013).The Guardian 9
  • 10. PREVENTABLE PAIN AND AGONY Sources: IbTimes, (2013).Tacloban1 Osborne, H. (2013).Removing Bodies. The World Health Organization has said that the bodies of victims of Typhoon Haiyan do not pose a public health risk and not a priority. 10
  • 11. EARTHQUAKE CHART-PHILIPPINES Source: Topinka, (2013).USGS/Cascades Volcano Observatory. Source: Wikipedia, (2013).List of Earthquake 11
  • 12. EARTHQUAKE AFTERMATH CNN, 2013.Bohol Earthquake Imageshack, 2013.Baguio Hotel-1991 Australia NW, 2013.Bohol Earthquake 12
  • 13. WHAT DOES IT TELL THE WORLD ? It tells the world and the government of the Philippines that the country is prone to the primary risks of damaging natural forces such as typhoons, and earthquakes. Knowing that the probability of a typhoon hitting land in the Philippines is a minimum of 6 to a maximum of 9 a year with varying speed and velocity lends anyone to readily conclude that such events are 100% certain. It goes to show that only the consequence/s can be mitigated and controlled. When a risk is 100% sure, it is already a fact! It’s consequence is already an issue! The probability that earthquake will occur a minimum of 1.5 to about 3 times a year with varying intensity and shock distribution lends any thinking person to rightfully conclude that the risk of an earthquake is 100% certain on a yearly basis. Again, it leaves us to contemplate on the consequence/s (or impact/s) as the elements to control. Sources: Colleen A. Sexton (2006). Philippines in Pictures Wikipedia (2013).List of Earthquakes in the Philippines 13
  • 14. 14
  • 15. RISKS, FACTS , and ISSUES Source: Frago, R. (1992). Original Drawing by Rufran -Revelation 6:3-4 World Chaos & Destruction 15
  • 16. THE RISK CYCLE RISKS FACTS Can be primary, Secondary, Tertiary, …nth or non-risk. ISSUES Can be primary, Secondary, Tertiary, …nth or non-issue Primary risk or risks if not mitigated or prevented can result to an issue, issues, or non-issues; a problem, problems, or non-problem which can result in another risk, risks, or non risk; another issue, issues, or non issue. The cycle is the same even for mitigated risk/s as long as there is residual or resulting new risk/s or issue/s, problem or problems even after each mitigation. When probability is 100% it is already a fact. When the risk occurred, the consequence is already an issue or a problem! 16
  • 17. THE RISK CYCLE RISK CONSEQUENCES WHAT ARE THE PROBABILITIES ISSUES or PROBLEMS NEW RISKS NO RISK 17
  • 18. PRIMARY RISKS? TYPHOONS Source: MumbleJumbles, 2009.Typhoon Ondoy.Retrieved from http://mumblejumbles.weebly.com/19/post/ 2010/09/typhoon-ondoy-september-262009.html EARTHQUAKES Source: Australia NW News, 2013.Philippines Earthquake creates a spectacular rocky wall.Retrieved from http://www.abc.net.au/news/201310-25/philippine-earthquakecreates-miles-long-rockywall/5046554 18
  • 19. SAMPLE ISHIKAWA DIAGRAM Outbreak of disease Vital infrastructures destroyed Poor logistics PRIMARY RISKS TYPHOONS DEVASTATION EARTHQUAKES Higher number of casualties and fatalities. Poor preparation Focusing on certain areas only Looting, unrest, and rioting 19
  • 20. RISKS, ISSUES or/& Problems RISK = P x I ; where P=Probability & I=Impact It is a Risk if and only if 0% < P < 100% and I > 0 Summary observations: if P = 100%, the event is a fact and not a Risk if P = 0%, the event is not a Risk if I = 0, the event is not a Risk if P and I = 0, the event is not a Risk *ISSUE and/or Problem RISK (FUTURE) NOW *When the risk do occur TIMELINE . . . 20
  • 21. RISKS, ISSUES or/& Problems Risk is defined as an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on at least one business objective such as time, cost, scope, quality, and others (PMBOK, 2013.Fifth Edition and Frago, R., 2012.MP Scheduling Awareness CourseSuncor). Issue is a negative business risk that has occurred. In my opinion and in a logical sense, it is no longer a risk as it is now certain and in the present. An issue can create problem/s that needs to be addressed promptly (PMBOK, 2013.Fifth Edition). Sources: Frago, R. (2012). MP Planning & Scheduling Awareness Course-Lev1.Major ProjectsSuncor PMBOK, 2013.Project Risk Management.A Guide to Project Management Body of KnowledgeFifth Edition.Page 310.First paragraph. 21
  • 22. ISSUES & Problems Problem can be solved while Issue continue to become an issue despite having been answered. Issue takes more time to fix because the solution usually does not fix the underlying problems while a Problem is something that has a clear answer. Both Issue and Problem can cause debate, arguments, & conflicts that divides or unites people. Issues are relatively larger and can be broken into smaller Problems. If the problem cannot be answered easily and people are divided over the problem, then it becomes an issue. Sources: Phelm, J. (2013).What is the difference between an Issue and a Problem.www.wikianswers.com.Retrieved from http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_difference_between_an_issue_and_a_problem#slide=1 5&article=What_is_the_difference_between_an_issue_and_a_problem 22
  • 23. Risk Consequences turned to ISSUES 1. Poor logistics: tremendous delay in distributing aids after the disaster. Casualties receiving no food, water, shelter, clothing, & medical aids for several days (4 days to a week) 2. Poor preparation: Government’s heavy reliance to foreign aids, tools, transports, equipment, supplies and expertise. 3. Higher & increasing number of casualties and fatalities. 4. Dealing with survivor’s serious physical & psychological trauma. 5. Extremely high relief operation cost. 6. Populace reflecting on a weak and ineffective government resulting in deteriorating reputation. 7. Dealing with civil unrest. 8. Short term and long term recovery plan 23
  • 24. Risk Consequences turned to ISSUES 9. Poor communication management; e.g. difficulties in confirming casualties and fatalities, flawed statistical records or wrong data, majority in the provinces do not have a clue what a “storm surge” is. 10. ineffective/inefficient collation of information. 11. Insufficient qualified resources to spearhead rescue, recovery, and security effort; e.g. burial delays waiting for recovery and eventual identification, not enough police presence to prevent looting, and many others. 12. Insufficient refrigerated morgue space resulting in rotting corpses. Sources: BBC News (15-Nov-2013) Katz, A. (15-Nov-2013) 24
  • 25. Risk Consequences turned to ISSUES 13. Outbreak of disease due to unsanitary condition in the survivor camps. 14. Dealing with serious psychological trauma suffered by relatives and survivors; especially the young ones. 15. Overall late response by the government epitomized by the numerous excuses as to why it fell short of expectations. 16. Wrong information results in wrong response. 17. Tendency of the relief operation to focus on certain areas only. 18. Very massive destruction resulting in a massive needs for rescue, relief, and recovery. Sources: BBC News (15-Nov-2013) Katz, A. (15-Nov-2013) 25
  • 26. Risk Consequences turned to ISSUES 13. Vital infrastructures were destroyed; e.g. power, communication lines, roads, bridges, pier, airports, etc. 14. Poor hygiene and sanitation 20. Delays due to political maneuverings; e.g. relief goods were ordered repacked and branded first with names and logos of local politician, interfering with the relief operation of charitable institution such as Red Cross, and others. 21. Underestimation of the risk. 22. Risk culture; e.g. evacuation order not followed, government do not have sufficient contingency to deal with the consequence. 23. Ignorance of risks, its probabilities and consequences. 24. Ill-equipped government relief agencies. 26
  • 27. Risk Consequences turned to ISSUES 25. Local government not prepared to deal with high impact risk such as stronger typhoons and earthquakes. 26. Pervasive corruption in the government; e.g. using natural disasters as front to scheme multi-billion dollars from the citizenry (de Guzman, S.S., 2013) 27. Anti-government rebels controls certain areas. 28. No central operation command. 29. Assigned evacuation centres were destroyed together with evacuees (Ehrenfreund, M., 2013). 30. …and many more! Sources: De Guzman, S.S. (2013). The pork barrel scam a perfect model of corruption http://www.philstar.com/opinion/2013/08/05/1053441/pork-barrel-scam-perfect-model-corruption Ehrenfreund, M (2013).Evacuees in shelters were not safe as Haiyan ravaged Tacloban, the Philippines.Paragraph7.Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/evacuees-in-shelters-werenot-safe-as-haiyan-ravaged-tacloban-the-philippines/2013/11/11/30fb51f2-4aec-11e3-ac54aa84301ced81_story.html 27
  • 28. Addressing Risks , Issues & Problems 28
  • 29. BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Earth Observatory, (2013). ImagesNASA-Typhoon Haiyan.Retrieved from http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=82348 2. Samenow, J. (2013). Super typhoon Haiyan: One of world’s most powerful storms in history from space.Washington Post.Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weathergang/wp/2013/11/08/super-typhoon-haiyan-one-of-worlds-most-powerfulstorms-in-history-from-space/+ 3. Measham, F. (2013). Typhoon Haiyan: disasters on this scale are never entirely an 'act of God.The Guardian.com.Retrieved from http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/14/typhoon-haiyanphilippines-disasters-act-of-god 4. De Castro, E. (2013).31Devastating Images of Haiyan’s Destruction.www.Buzzfeed.com.Retrieved from http://www.buzzfeed.com/rachelzarrell/27-devastating-images-from-typhoonhaiyans-destruction 5. Colleen A. Sexton (2006). Philippines in Pictures. Twenty-First Century Books. ISBN 978-0-8225-2677-3. Retrieved 2008-11-01. 29
  • 30. BIBLIOGRAPHY (Continuation…) 6. Wikipedia (2013).List of Earthquakes in the Philippines.Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_the_Philippines 7. Topinka, USGS/Cascades Volcano Observatory (1997).Vancouver, Washington.Retrieved from http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Glossary/PlateTectonics/Maps/map_plate_tectonics_w orld.html 8. IbTimes, (2013).Tacloban1.Retrieved from https://www.google.ca/search?q=haiyan's+dead&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X &ei=N1CGUpXNGqKsjAKRsYCACw&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAQ&biw=1272&bi h=791 9. Osborne, H. (2013).WHO:Removing Bodies Not a Priority.Retrieved from http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/521600/20131112/typhoon-haiyan-worldhealth-organisation-removing-dead.htm 10. BBC News, 15-Nov-13. Typhoon Haiyan: Plight of survivors 'bleak' despite aid effort.Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24950905 11. Crowley, J. (2013).Stop Catastrophizing Relief Efforts in the Philippines.Time Ideas.Retrieved from http://ideas.time.com/2013/11/14/stop-catastrophizingrelief-efforts-in-the-philippines/ 30
  • 31. BIBLIOGRAPHY (Continuation…) 12. Katz, A. (15-Nov-2013). Filipino Official Fired for Inflated Estimate of Typhoon Deaths.Time World.Retrieved from http://world.time.com/2013/11/14/filipinoofficial-fired-for-inflated-estimate-of-typhoon-deaths/?iid=obnetwork 13. Frago, R. (1992). The Second Seal. Original Drawing.Revelation 6:3-6. 14. Frago, R. (2012). MP Planning & Scheduling Awareness CourseLev1.Major ProjectsSuncor 15. PMBOK, 2013.Project Risk Management.A Guide to Project Management Body of Knowledge-Fifth Edition.Page 310.First paragraph. 16. Phelm, J. (2013).What is the difference between an Issue and a Problem.www.wikianswers.com.Retrieved from http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_difference_between_an_issue_a nd_a_problem#slide=15&article=What_is_the_difference_between_an_is sue_and_a_problem 17. Gilbeaux, K. (2013-Nov). Philippines - Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) Information.www.globalresiliencesystem.Retrieved from http://www.us.resiliencesystem.org/category/general-topic-tags/extremeweather 31
  • 32. ADDITIONAL READING 1. 2. Ajit, M. (2013).What are the key difference between Risk and Issue? Risk is an event of future whereas Issue is an event that is happening right now. Does it mean when a Risk occurred it became an Issue? Started by Ajit.The Project Manager’s NetworkLinkedin thread.Retrieved from http://www.linkedin.com/groups/What-are-key-difference-between37888.S.207156509 Mangini, F. (2007).Risks or Problems-What’s the Difference?.svprojectmanagement.com.Retrieved from http://svprojectmanagement.com/risks-or-problems-whats-the-difference 32
  • 33. END OF PRESENTATION 33