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Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011
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Is now the time to sell gold 9 8-2011

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During the twelve months following the stock market decline in early 2009, U.S. and international stock indexes significantly outperformed gold - growing roughly 60% while gold grew roughly 20%. In …

During the twelve months following the stock market decline in early 2009, U.S. and international stock indexes significantly outperformed gold - growing roughly 60% while gold grew roughly 20%. In this presentation, McKinley Carter's Director of Wealth Management Will Carter shares uncommonly understood facts that could affect how you manage the current market situation.


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  • 1. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold? Presented By: Will Carter Director of Wealth Management
  • 2. Before we get started Today’s GoToWebinar service offers two methods of listening to thepresentation: By computer speaker or by telephone. To eliminate distraction, all attendees are entering this webinar in listen-onlymode and are automatically muted. Should you have any questions or comments during the presentation, pleasesubmit them through the question and answer pane and we will either addressthem immediately or at the end of the presentation. Today’s presentation will be recorded and will be posted on our website. We willsend you an email notification once this recording is available. If you’d like to schedule a follow up conversation, please indicate so in thequestion and answer pane as well.
  • 3. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?Gold has had a strong run recently… Gold versus S&P 500 July 1, 2011 – September 2, 2011
  • 4. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?… but that could be a signal to sell, as it was in March 2009. Gold versus S&P 500 January 1, 2009 – December 31, 2009
  • 5. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?…when stocks substantially outperformed gold through year-end Gold versus S&P 500 March 6, 2009 - December 31, 2009
  • 6. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?Gold cynic: certain, closed Gold has no fundamental value (unlike silver)
  • 7. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold? Gold versus silver July 5 – September 7, 2011 Gold versus silver September 7, 2010 – September 7, 2011
  • 8. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?Gold cynic: certain, closed Gold has no fundamental value (unlike silver) Mass marketing of gold is fueling demand
  • 9. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?
  • 10. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?Gold cynic: certain, closed Gold has no fundamental value (unlike silver) Mass marketing of gold is fueling demand Gold is way outside its recent trading range
  • 11. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?Some Gold Bulls Say Time to Cash In, Rally OverdonePublished:23-Aug11 19:11 ETBy:ReutersAs gold prices near $2,000 an ounce, some bulls say its time totake money off the table after the safe-haven rally extended too fartoo fast in recent weeks.Gold investors at several firms said that gold prices could correctsharply, citing overvaluation. While that does not mean prominentbulls are now bears, they recommended investors take profit ongold holdings, after the precious metal traded briefly above $1,900on Tuesday for the first time.
  • 12. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?Gold cynic: certain, closed Gold has no fundamental value (unlike silver) Gold is way outside its recent trading range Mass marketing of gold is fueling demandGold skeptic: humble, open Compare to other options Bonds Alternatives: commodities, currencies, options Stocks
  • 13. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?Gold should be compared to larger basket of commodities within“alternative” allocation, which have been insulated from recent drops Gold (black) compared with S&P 500 (gold) and broad commodities index (DJP-blue) July 6, 2011 – September 1, 2011
  • 14. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?Gold versus stocks: reasons for pessimism US consumers: less new money to spend, lower confidence
  • 15. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?A tale of two eras: rising stock markets fueled by rising wages in U.S. (1945-1964) versus rising debt levels in U.S. (1981-2004)
  • 16. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold? Growth in household spending after early 1980s came from unsustainable sources
  • 17. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold? US consumer confidence is at historic lows
  • 18. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?Gold versus stocks: reasons for pessimism US consumers: less new money to spend, lower confidence US dollar is lower than it has ever been
  • 19. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold? U.S. dollar is buying less abroad than ever
  • 20. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?Gold versus stocks: reasons for pessimism US consumers: less new money to spend, lower confidence US dollar: lower than it has ever been US debt: high and rising to levels not seen since years after WWII
  • 21. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold? U.S. Debt to GDP ratio 1945-2011
  • 22. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?We are entering a “New Normal”:“Advanced economies will face sluggish (call it 2%) growth andpersistently high unemployment that becomes more structural(and therefore protracted) in nature…,”“debt and deficit concerns will not go away….”“Bonds have seen their best days…. Over the long term, stocksreturn more than bonds when appropriately priced at thebeginning of an investment period."Bill Gross and Mohammed El Erian, PIMCO
  • 23. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold? Last few times consumer confidence was this low, stocks soared over the next decade
  • 24. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold? Last few times the U.S. dollar was this low, stocks doubled and even tripled in value over next decade
  • 25. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold? Last time US debt/GDP ratio was this high, stocks tripled over next 15 years
  • 26. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold? Objection!! Stock market growth for past 60 years was driven by profits generated by U.S.consumer – where will such growth come from in the future?
  • 27. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold? Economist, February 12, 2009Rising middle class in emerging markets will replace U.S. consumer driving growing corporate profits and stock market growth
  • 28. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold? Economist, August 4, 2011 Emerging markets are on the move.
  • 29. Gold: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold?In conclusion: There are good reasons to be skeptical about gold, but investors should be open to its potential value in portfolios as part of a broader commodity play Much of the recent interest in gold is driven by pessimism about the stock market, but even those believing we are in a “New Normal” see stocks as having more growth potential than bonds. This new potential for stock market growth is fueled by rising global middle class, which will provide the new spending needed to generate future stock market growth.
  • 30. DisclosuresThis presentation is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to the investmentadvisory/management services McKinley Carter Wealth Services, Inc. (“MCWS”) and is not intended to be specificadvice as to whether you should engage in a particular trading strategy or buy, sell, or hold any financialproduct. Investing in the stock market involves gains and losses and may not be suitable for all investors. Differenttypes of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will beprofitable.McKinley Carter Wealth Services, Inc. (“MCWS”) is an SEC registered investment adviser with its principal place ofbusiness in the State of West Virginia. MCWS and its representatives are in compliance with the current registrationand notice filing requirements imposed upon registered investment advisers by those states in which MCWS maintainsclients. MCWS may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption orexclusion from notice filing requirements. Any subsequent, direct communication by MCWS with a prospective clientshall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion fromregistration in the state where the prospective client resides. For information pertaining to the registration status ofMCWS, please contact MCWS or refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure web site (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov).For additional information about MCWS, including fees and services, send for our disclosure brochure as set forth onForm ADV from MCWS using the contact information herein. Please read the disclosure statement carefully before youinvest or send money.
  • 31. Contact Information 2100 Market Street Wheeling, WV 26003 Phone: 304.230.2400 2000 Deitrick Boulevard Charleston, WV 25311 Phone: 304.346.37006500 Brooktree Road, Suite 205 Wexford, PA 15090 Phone: 724.940.4400 www.mckinleycarter.com

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