Currency technical tips 06 jan by swastika investmart

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Currency technical tips 06 jan by swastika investmart

  1. 1. CURRENCY OUTLOOK 6th January, 2013 SWASTIKA INTELLIGENCE GROUP MARKET OVERVIEW Rupee remained volatile this week taking cues from strength in the dollar index and more than expected positive economic data from USA. Higher treasury yield in the US also led to weakness in rupee which touched its one month low against the dollar this week but recovered a little after possible intervention by the RBI. Domestically, weak Indian market sentiments and poor manufacturing and services PMI data which stood at 50.7 and 48.5 respectively. FIIs invested a total of Rs. 132.56 crores in the cash and derivatives market of India on Friday. USD INR Rupee gained 0.13 percent against the dollar in futures on Friday and closed at 62.1725. The spot rate is currently at 62.16. India's fiscal deficit in the April-November period reached 94 per cent of the targeted budgetary estimate of Rs 5.42 lakh crore. Dollar Index closed at 80.8680 rising by 0.30 percent from the previous close. The benchmark US 10-year note yield remained near 3 percent for the week. It reached 3.05 percent yesterday, the highest since July 2011, before ending the day at 2.99 percent. Overall, we expect the rupee to trade on a week note against the dollar taking cues from poor domestic market sentiments, high US treasury yields, stronger dollar index and Fed Tapering by $10 billion in January 2014. Technical Outlook: As seen on the daily chart, USDINR has breached the down sloping trend line resistance and has also given a breakout from the bullish inverse head and shoulders formation. It is likely that the counter has taken support at 62.51 levels and will bounce upwards till the resistance at 63.35 mark in the coming week. If it comes back into the channel below 62.51, then 62.01 is a crucial support. Visit us at : www.swastika.co.in After declining for two weeks, India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $204.9 million to $ 295.71 billion in the week ended December 27 on the back of an increase in the core currency component. The reserves had declined by $12.6 million in the previous reporting week to $295.50 billion. Foreign currency assets (FCAs), which form a major part of the overall reserves, shot up by $164.3 million to $268.634 billion in the week under review, the Reserve Bank said.
  2. 2. CURRENCY OUTLOOK 6th January, 2013 SWASTIKA INTELLIGENCE GROUP EUR INR In the futures rupee gained 0.17 percent against the Euro and closed at 85.5425 on Friday. The spot rupee closed at 84.48. European Central Bank said that Euro Zone M3 Money Supply rose to 1.5%, from 1.4% in the preceding month. The dollar largely held on to gains against the euro and the pound this week, boosted by expectations that U.S. economic growth this year will outpace the recovery in Europe and other regions. Overall, it is expected that rupee will trade on a neutral to negative note against the Euro due to positive economic data from the Euro zone. However, strength in dollar index causing international weakness in Euro may cap sharp gains in Euro in India. Technical Outlook: As seen on the daily chart EURINR is trading in a range since the past many trading sessions and is taking support at 85.31 level. On the upside, 85.89 is a crucial resistance for the counter and 85.06 is a crucial support on the downside. GBP INR In the futures rupee lost 0.11 percent against the GBP on Friday and closed at 102.6700. The spot rupee closed at 102.06. The U.K.’s Nation-wide house price index rose morethan-expected last month. U.K. house prices rose to 1.4 percent, from 0.7 percent in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from 0.6 percent. The Markit/CIPS construction PMI fell to 62.1 in December from November's reading of 62.6. Overall, we expect rupee to trade on a neutral to negative note against the GBP taking cues poor domestic market sentiments. However, weakness in pound due to less than expected positive economic data from UK may cap sharp gains in the pound. Technical Outlook: As seen on the weekly chart, GBPINR is moving in an upwards sloping channel. It is likely that the counter will move higher till the 104 mark in the coming week. On the downside, 102.42 is a crucial support. Visit us at : www.swastika.co.in
  3. 3. CURRENCY OUTLOOK 6th January, 2013 SWASTIKA INTELLIGENCE GROUP JPY INR IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA TODAY In the futures rupee gained 0.09 percent against Yen, and closed at 59.22 on Friday. The spot rate of JPY INR is currently at 59.29. Currency For the week, the dollar was down 0.9 percent against the yen, putting the greenback on track for its first weekly loss versus the yen since late October. GBP We expect Yen to trade on a neutral to negative range bound against the rupee depending on the performance of Japanese markets after a weeklong break. However positive bias in Yen is expected due to its strengthening against the dollar and weak domestic market sentiments. Technical Outlook: As seen on the daily chart, JPYINR is moving higher since the past two days. It is likely that the counter will head upwards till the 60.55 levels. On the down side, 58.88 is a crucial support for the counter. Event German Prelim CPI m/m, Spanish Services PMI, Italian Services PMI Services PMI ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders m/m EUR USD KEY STATISTICS: 3rd January 2013 RBI REFERENCE RATES: ALL CURRENCIES Currency Rate Previous close % Change USD INR 62.4075 61.9020 0.82 GBP INR 102.5355 102.7418 -0.20 EUR INR 85.1950 85.1556 0.05 JPY INR 59.9000 58.7900 1.89 ONLINE TRADE: ALL CURRENCIES Instrument Underlying Futures Options Futures Futures Futures USD INR USD INR GBP INR EUR INR JPY INR Total Visit us at : www.swastika.co.in Turnover (Cr) Open Interest 3236.31 755.78 451.28 468.88 126.44 5038.69 719147 342675 37310 51825 9535 1160492
  4. 4. CURRENCY OUTLOOK 6th January, 2013 SWASTIKA INTELLIGENCE GROUP CURRENCY TRACKER: 6th January 2013 CURRENCY CONTRACT S2 S1 USDINR January 62.0100 62.2400 EURINR January 84.7700 GBPINR January JPYINR January Report Prepared by Sonakshi Bahety RESEARCH TEAM Ronak Choubey Santosh Meena Amit Khare Vishnu Shreekar Saloni Gupta LTP R1 R2 62.5475 62.7500 62.9500 85.0900 85.3575 85.6900 85.8900 103.3900 102.7800 103.0000 103.4000 103.6800 59.2200 59.5800 59.9050 60.2000 60.4400 Designation Research Associate E-mail ID sonakshi.bahety@swastika.co.in SWASTIKA INTELLIGENCE GROUP Fundamental Analyst Derivative & Technical Analyst Commodity Analyst Commodity Analyst Research Associate research@swastika.co.in ronakchoubey@swastika.co.in santosh.meena@swastika.co.in amit.khare@swastika.co.in vishnu.shreekar@swastika.co.in salony.gupta@swastika.co.in Disclaimer: This document is solely for the personal information of the intended recipient and must not be exceptionally used as the basi s for any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment, Legal, taxation or financial advice. Swastika Investmart Ltd. is not soliciting any action based upon it. Each recipient of this document should make necessary investigations as they consider important to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved). This report has been made based on i nformation that we consider reliable and are publicly available but we do not state that it is accurate or complete and it should not be solely relied upon such, as this document is for. Swastika Investmart Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within this document. Swastika Investmart Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies, or employees shall not be in any way held responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Swastika Investmart Limited has not independently verified the information contained in this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Visit us at : www.swastika.co.in

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