Living with climate change:
Policy options for ensuring food security
in South and Southeast Asia
By
Claudia Ringler, Nico...
Changes in normal annual maximum temperature (°C), 2000 to 2050
Using the A1B scenario
Climate change predictions: Tempera...
Changes in mean annual precipitation in (mm), 2000 to 2050
Using the A1B scenario
Climate change predictions: Rainfall
Sou...
Impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield, 2000 to 2050
Using the A1B scenario
Climate change predictions: Yields
S...
Prevalence of individuals earning $1.25 PPP per day, by province, South Asia
Source: Wood et al. 2010
Adaptive capacity
Source: Wood et al. 2010
Prevalence of individuals earning $1.25 PPP per day, by province, Southeast Asia
Adaptive capacity
Climate change hotspots
• Bangladesh: Dhaka and Rajshahi
• India: Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan,
Uttar Pradesh,...
Mitigation strategies with potential
• Mid-season drainage for rice
• Dryland rice
• Direct seeded rice
• Alternative wett...
Source: IFPRI 2011
Mitigation strategies with potential
Reductions in CO2 emissions by technology (m tons CO2/year)
South ...
Source: IFPRI 2011
Dryland rice potential
Reductions in CH4 and N2 O emissions, dryland rice (% difference from baseline)
Source: IFPRI 2011
Reduced emissions, higher yields
Yield increases x emission reductions for selected technologies
(% dif...
Solutions: How do we get there?
• Invest in science and technology
• Invest in development and delivery
• Improve private ...
0
7
13
20
26
33
40
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Million2005Nepaleserupees
NARC Other gover...
Procedures and requirements for wheat variety development in Pakistan
Development and delivery
Source: Arshad et al./BARS,...
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Estimatedvaluesofyield(metric
tons/hectare)
Maize
Pearl millet
Rice
Whea...
Country Regulatory situation
India Interim
Bangladesh Interim
Nepal Interim
Thailand Interim
Cambodia Fully functional
Ind...
More technologies with potential
• Transgenic abiotic stress tolerance
• Heat, drought tolerance in rice, wheat, maize
• T...
In conclusion: What will it take?
• Eliminate regulatory uncertainties
• Promote public-private partnerships
• Encourage d...
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Inter-linked impacts and policy options of climate change and water resources in South and SE Asia

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“Inter-linked impacts and policy options of climate change and water resources in South and SE Asia”, presented by David Spielman, IFPRI, at the ReSAKSS-Asia Conference, Nov 14-16, 2011, in Kathmandu, Nepal.

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Inter-linked impacts and policy options of climate change and water resources in South and SE Asia

  1. 1. Living with climate change: Policy options for ensuring food security in South and Southeast Asia By Claudia Ringler, Nicola Cenacchi, Anthony Cavalieri, Mandy Ewing, Ricky Robertson, Yan Sun, Timothy Thomas, Hua Xie, Tingju Zhu, and David J. Spielman International Food Policy Research Institute
  2. 2. Changes in normal annual maximum temperature (°C), 2000 to 2050 Using the A1B scenario Climate change predictions: Temperature Source: IFPRI 2011
  3. 3. Changes in mean annual precipitation in (mm), 2000 to 2050 Using the A1B scenario Climate change predictions: Rainfall Source: IFPRI 2011
  4. 4. Impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield, 2000 to 2050 Using the A1B scenario Climate change predictions: Yields Source: IFPRI 2011
  5. 5. Prevalence of individuals earning $1.25 PPP per day, by province, South Asia Source: Wood et al. 2010 Adaptive capacity
  6. 6. Source: Wood et al. 2010 Prevalence of individuals earning $1.25 PPP per day, by province, Southeast Asia Adaptive capacity
  7. 7. Climate change hotspots • Bangladesh: Dhaka and Rajshahi • India: Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal • Nepal: Western areas • Pakistan: Punjab • Cambodia: Central region • Vietnam: Red River and Mekong Delta • Philippines: Luzon
  8. 8. Mitigation strategies with potential • Mid-season drainage for rice • Dryland rice • Direct seeded rice • Alternative wetting and drying of rice • Organic inputs for rice, maize, wheat • Zero/minimum tillage of rice, maize, and wheat
  9. 9. Source: IFPRI 2011 Mitigation strategies with potential Reductions in CO2 emissions by technology (m tons CO2/year) South Asia Southeast Asia
  10. 10. Source: IFPRI 2011 Dryland rice potential Reductions in CH4 and N2 O emissions, dryland rice (% difference from baseline)
  11. 11. Source: IFPRI 2011 Reduced emissions, higher yields Yield increases x emission reductions for selected technologies (% difference from baseline)
  12. 12. Solutions: How do we get there? • Invest in science and technology • Invest in development and delivery • Improve private incentives • Improve market regulation • Cooperate, collaborate • Plan, time, and sequence strategically • Experiment and adapt • Involve communities and women • Involve vulnerable social groups • Marshall good leadership, good governance Source: Adapted from Spielman and Pandya-Lorch 2009
  13. 13. 0 7 13 20 26 33 40 0 150 300 450 600 750 900 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Million2005Nepaleserupees NARC Other government (2) NGOs(4) TU (2) Million2005PPPdollars Source: Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI) 2011 Expenditure on agricultural research, Nepal, 1996-2009 Science and technology
  14. 14. Procedures and requirements for wheat variety development in Pakistan Development and delivery Source: Arshad et al./BARS, Fatehjang, Punjab, Pakistan 2011
  15. 15. 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Estimatedvaluesofyield(metric tons/hectare) Maize Pearl millet Rice Wheat 1992 (Technology shift)1988 (Policy reform) Maize, pearl millet, rice and wheat yields, India (by state), 1965-2008 Private incentives Source: Kolady, Spielman, and Cavalieri 2010
  16. 16. Country Regulatory situation India Interim Bangladesh Interim Nepal Interim Thailand Interim Cambodia Fully functional Indonesia Fully functional Philippines Fully functional Sri Lanka Interim The biosafety regulatory situation in South and Southeast Asia Markets and market regulation
  17. 17. More technologies with potential • Transgenic abiotic stress tolerance • Heat, drought tolerance in rice, wheat, maize • Transgenic nutrient use efficiency • Nitrogen-use efficient rice, wheat, maize • Conservation agriculture • Direct seeded rice, zero tillage wheat • New crop rotations, soil covers, residue management • Precision agriculture • Real time application of ICT to farm production
  18. 18. In conclusion: What will it take? • Eliminate regulatory uncertainties • Promote public-private partnerships • Encourage domestic and foreign investments • Provide sufficient protection of intellectual property • Encourage commercialization of public research • Develop business models that reach smallholders • Design sensible, targeted subsidy regimes
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