Research methodology for caadp m&e m&e framework, caadp indicators & sadc risdp indicators

Comprehensive AfricaAgriculture DevelopmentProgramme (CAADP) Monitoringand Evaluation Framework andlinks to the SurveyQuestionnaire Photo: David van Cakenberghe/IWMIRegional Methodology Workshop Photo David Brazier/IWMI Photo: :Tom Brazier/IWMI Birchwood Hotel 21 June, 2012 Pretoria Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Goal and targets of CAADPGoal of CAADP• Help African countries reach and maintain a higher path of economic growth through agriculturally-led development that reduces mass poverty, food insecurity and hunger. Targets of CAADP• 6% average annual growth in the agriculture• MDG 1 - reduce poverty and hunger by half by 2015,• Allocating 10% of national budgets to agriculture Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Four Pillars of CAADPCAADP is a strategic framework to guide investmentsacross four specific pillars, as well as investments instrengthening institutional capacity across the pillars:1. Extending area under sustainable land management and reliable water control systems2. Improving rural infrastructure and trade-related capacity for market access3. Increasing food supplies and reducing hunger4. Agricultural research and technology dissemination and adoption Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

CAADP ImplementationThe CAADP country roundtable process is the main process tomonitor and evaluate at the country level.• inclusive participation of stakeholders to ensure that credible and relevant evidence is used in the design of a CAADP investment program that is aligned with the CAADP principles and targets across the four CAADP pillars• Significant stages in the process lead up to signing of a country CAADP compact and then design, technical review, implementation and monitoring and evaluation of the investment program. Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Purpose of CAAD M&E FrameworkThe M&E framework was developed by ReSAKSS , endorsed in 2009and validated 2010• To monitor progress towards the successful implementation of CAADP• Supports mutual, peer and progress reviews at the continental, regional and national levels respectively.• Provides a basis for impact assessment of CAADP.• To do this it has identified a set of indicators, data required, laid out a data collection, and analysis plan Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

What to monitor?• What to monitor is based on the underlying logic of CAADP to show how the investments (Inputs) and outputs associated with any one pillar of CAADP interact with the other pillars through complementarity or substitutability of investments to affect achievement of the overall CAADP goals and objectives.• Also the framework shows how the investment decisions and realization of the various outputs and outcomes are influenced by the conditioning factors e.g. governance and trade and macroeconomic policies. Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

What to monitor (2)Generally agreed that the indicators must be SMARTSpecific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and TimelyThus the best indicators are those that best reflect the range ofinputs (processes, policies and investments),outputs andoutcomesassociated with the activities being implemented across thedifferent pillars of CAADP. Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Timely (SMART) Indicators• SMART indicators must be the ones that best reflect therange of: 1. Inputs, 2. Outputs 3. Outcomesassociated with the activities being implemented acrossthe different pillars/subsectors of the agriculture sector Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Timely (SMART) Indicators• SMART indicators must also capture critical landmarks along the pathway (s) of impact e.g. 1. Investments made and how these affect agricultural productivity growth, poverty and hunger 2. Investments made in capacity strengthening and how these contribute to achieving the goals and objectives of the sector 3. Investments made and associated outputs in each individual pillar and how these are affected by investments and outputs associated with other pillars 4. Conditioning factors/exogenous factors – and how these are likely to influence realization of the goals and objectives of the sector Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Inputs Input Level Conditioning/Exogenous Factors Political economy Governance Institutions Total Government Revenue Private Sector InvestmentsInvestments in FDI/OD the 4 CAADP Pillars and Rural Agricultural Capacity Land Infrastructure Food Security Research and Management &Strengthening Water Control Trade Related and Safety Nets Technology Market Access Development Systems Institutional Capacity Strengthening Public Investments Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Output Level Conditioning/Exogenous FactorsOutputs • Initial conditions of capital • Social services (Education, Health, Social Security) Physical Capital Human Capital Irrigation Systems Rural Roads Marketing Information, Infrastructure Knowledge and Technologies Food Reserve Facilities Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Outcome Level Conditioning/Exogenous Factors • ResourcesOutcomes • Rainfall • Natural Disasters • Trade policies • Exchange Rates • Prices Sustainable Agricultural Land Production Agricultural Management and Food Trade Supply Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Goal level Conditioning/Exogenous Factors • Household Assets and Endowments • Natural disasters • Conflict Hunger Goal Level Poverty Income Intermediate Goal Level PricesIntermediate Goal level Conditioning/Exogenous Factors • Non-agricultural production Water for a food-secure world • Employment, • Rural wages, www.iwmi.org • Inflation

Goal level Goals •Household Assets and •Endowments, Natural disasters •Conflict Intermediate Goal levelIntermediate •Non-agricultural production Goals •Employment, Rural wages, •Inflation •Outcome level Outcomes •Resources, Rainfall, Natural •Disasters, Trade policies, •Exchange Rates, Prices Output level Outputs •Initial conditions of capital (Capital) •Social services (Educ, Health. SS) Input level Inputs •Political economy, • Governance(Investments) •Institutions •Total Government Revenue •Private Sector Investments •FDI/ODA Water for a food-secure world Overall PerformanceM. et al, 2008 Framework Source: Benin.S., Johnson Indicator Conditioning factors www.iwmi.org

Figure 1 and Figure 2• The two figures:• Help identify a critical set of indicators that in addition to being consistent with the impact pathways, possess sufficient information to address the fundamental question of whether the programme is on track to achieving the desired goal of agricultural growth rate and poverty, hunger reduction targets. Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

CAADP and SADC RISDP Indicators• Achieving a GDP growth of at least 7% a year.• MDG1 by 2015 .• Doubling cropland under irrigation from 3.5% to 7%• Increasing fertilizer use to 65 kg/ha of arable land by 2015.• Increasing cereal yield to 2,000 kg/ha by 2015.• Doubling the adoption rate of proven technologies such as improved seed varieties, and management of water and land by 2015.• Increasing livestock production by at least 4% annually Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Questionnaire overviewThe survey is divided into six broad sections:• CAADP implementation process• Expenditure and investment indicators• Output indicators (Agricultural technology, diffusion, and human capital indicators)• Agricultural sector performance indicators (Agricultural production and trade indicators)• Macro- and socio-economic indicators (Welfare indicators)• Agricultural development strategies, policies and/or plans Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

CAADP implementation processThe purpose of this indicator is to provide anoverview of the progress, if any, the countryhas made in adapting and implementing theCAADP framework Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

B: Expenditure and investment indicators The purpose of this indicator is to collect information on government revenues, budget allocation and expenditures. This information will specifically be used to monitor the country’s progress towards the 2003 Maputo Declaration target of allocating at least 10% of total government budgetary resources to agriculture. Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

C: Output indicators (Agricultural technology, diffusion, and human capital indicators)This indicator covers information on the rate ofmodern input use which specifically includesadoption of improved technologies, sustainableland management practices and stock as well asquality (in terms of qualifications) of agriculturalhuman capital. Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

D: Agricultural sector performance indicators (Agricultural production and trade indicators)• The purpose of this indicator is to monitor agricultural output and production performance in the country.• This information will be used to assess whether and how the country is progressing towards achieving its agricultural growth and performance targets. Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

E: Macro- and socio-economic indicators (Welfare indicators) • To assess the extent to which the country is progressing towards achieving the MDGs, specifically MDG1 (on halving poverty and hunger by 2015) and MDG6 (particularly as it relates to combating HIV/AIDS). Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

F: Agricultural development strategies, policies and/or plansThe purpose of these indicators is to collectinformation that will be used to review thecountry’s most recent agriculturaldevelopment strategies, policies and/or plans(e.g. National Development Plans, PovertyReduction Strategies (PRSs), Agricultureand/or Food Security Strategies, etc Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Potential Indicators for CAADP M&EThe indicators are grouped into seven intervention areas(1) enabling environment; (2) implementation process(3) commitments and investments; (4) agricultural growth performance; (5) agricultural trade performance; (6) poverty, hunger, and food and nutrition security; and (7) investment-growth poverty linkages. Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Key indicators on enabling environment• Governance and economic management• % of population satisfied with political governance by: (i) gender; (ii) rural/urban; (iii) age group; (iv) sector• Macroeconomic management: (i) deficit to GDP; (ii),revenue to GDP; (iii) inflation rate; (iv) debt to GDP• Private sector development• Proportion of population with access to financial services for agricultural and rural development• Proportion of commercial loans for agricultural and rural development (and as % of Agricultural GDP• Donor harmonization• Share of ODA for total budget support Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

2. Key indicators on implementation process• Development of investment program Number of countries at major stages of the roundtable process (see Figure 2)• Composition of stakeholders involved at each major stage of the process• Resources and mechanisms for implementation of investment program• Whether resources have been committed by governments, private sector and development partners• Whether mechanisms are in place for implementation and M&E Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

3. Key indicators on commitments and investments• Total ODA commitments as % of Agricultural GDP (AgGDP• Total ODA for agricultural R&D and value chains•• Government spending on the agricultural sector as: • (i) % agricultural budget; • (ii) % of total expenditures; and • (iii) % of AgGDP• Share of government agricultural expenditures by:  Function (research, extension, irrigation, etc)  Sub-sector (crops, livestock, forestry, fisheries) • Total private sector investments in the agricultural sector % of AgGDP Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

4. Key indicators on provision, coverage and utilization of services• Percent of agricultural land area under irrigation• Percent of population within 15 minutes, 30 minutes or more than 30 minutes of infrastructure or service• % of agricultural production that is lost post-harvest• %Technology adoption• %agricultural land area under improved technologies (crops and forestry)• %of total livestock units of improved breeds• % of fish farming under sustainable management• Institutional capacity - Level of training (PhD, MS, BS, Dip Number of professionals per 1000 persons by: Gender Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

5. Key indicators on agricultural trade performance• Value and volume of agricultural exports and imports• as % of AgGDP (and contribution by different sub-sectors and major commodities)• Food trade balance• Share of intra-regional trade• Share of value-added content of trade• Domestic and export-import parity prices by major commodities• Demand outlook and long-term price projections for major commodities Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

6. Key indicators on poverty, hunger and food and nutrition security• Poverty incidence ratio• Poverty gap ratio• Share of poorest quintile in national income• Proportion of the population below minimum dietary energy consumption• Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age• Global Hunger Index• Share of food expenditure Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

7. Key indicators on linkages between interventions and CAADP goals• Percentage change in poverty rate per unit change in AgGDP growth rate• Value of AgGDP per unit cost of intervention• Number of people lifted out of poverty or hunger per unit cost of intervention Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Thank YouWater for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Research methodology for caadp m&e m&e framework, caadp indicators & sadc risdp indicators

by African Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) on Jul 03, 2012

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