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Informing African Agricultural Development  Planning and Implementation in the context of  CAADP in West Africa
 

Informing African Agricultural Development Planning and Implementation in the context of CAADP in West Africa

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"Informing African Agricultural Development Planning and Implementation in the context of CAADP in West Africa " by Mbaye Yade, Coordinator ReSAKSS WA at IITA Contract Review, April 25, Dakar, ...

"Informing African Agricultural Development Planning and Implementation in the context of CAADP in West Africa " by Mbaye Yade, Coordinator ReSAKSS WA at IITA Contract Review, April 25, Dakar, Senegal

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  • IFPRI facilitates overall ReSAKSS or Africa-wide (ReSAKSS-AW) and then jointly with Africa-based CGIAR centers: IITA for Western Africa (ReSAKSS-WA), ILRI for Eastern and Central Africa (ReSAKSS-ECA), and IWMI for Southern Africa (ReSAKSS). Key partners are: African Union Commission (AUC) and NEPAD Planning and Coordinating Agency (NPCA) at the Africa-wide level, and ECOWAS, COMESA and SADC for ReSAKSS-WA, ReSAKSS-ECA and ReSAKSS-SA, respectively. These partners also chair the Steering Committees (SC) of the respective ReSAKSS nodes. Membership of the SCs are drawn from the CAADP stakeholders/institutions. Showing ReSAKSS activities (e.g. monitoring CAADP process and 10% Maputo Declaration) and outputs (e.g. web platform and flagship Annual Trends and Outlook Report) and expected outcome.
  • The analysis of the growth effects on poverty reduction of different sectors and subsectors amongst ECOWAS countries reveals that the contribution of agricultural growth would be relatively higher than the contribution of the non-agricultural growth. Figure 1 shows that, in all ECOWAS countries, a 1% reduction of poverty at the national and rural levels can be attributed by more than half to the growth of the agricultural sector. From 52.5% in Benin, the contribution of agricultural growth to poverty reduction reaches 75% in Nigeria and Togo and nearly 60% in most of the considered countries. Source: ECOWAP/CAADP implementation: Agricultural Growth and Poverty reduction – Performance and Outlook – International Conference on the funding of ECOWAP/CAADP – 11-12 November 2009 Abuja, Nigeria
  • This figure shows the long-term contributions (2015) of marginal efforts in agricultural growth to farm incomes and poverty reduction in various ECOWAS countries. In this figure, the left axis and the bars show increases of agricultural GDP for each country resulting from an annual steady growth rate of 1% in agriculture until 2015. The curve and right y-axis show the corresponding contributions to the reduction of the poverty rate. The figure shows that an additional growth of 1% would increase the agricultural GDP of The Gambia, Guinea, Senegal and Mali by $20.8 million, $57 million, $132 million and $389.5 million, respectively. The corresponding reduction in the national poverty rate would be comparatively small in Niger and Mali reaching, nevertheless, 6.5% and 6.7%, respectively. The highest reduction of poverty would be achieved in Cape-Verde with 25.9% followed by Senegal with 12.6%, The Gambia with 11.1%. Source: ECOWAP/CAADP implementation: Agricultural Growth and Poverty reduction – Performance and Outlook – International Conference on the funding of ECOWAP/CAADP – 11-12 November 2009 Abuja, Nigeria
  • According to the analysis of the potential for long-term poverty reduction (horizon 2015) of a number of alternative growth strategies considered in each country, the food crops subsector has the greatest potential to contribute to increases in farm income and poverty reduction (Table 1). Livestock also emerges as a strategic area of intervention in the Sahel. However, results demonstrate that isolated strategies exclusively targeting a commodity or a subsector would be less effective for poverty reduction than a comprehensive strategy aiming for largely diversified agricultural and non-agricultural growth. Source: ECOWAP/CAADP implementation: Agricultural Growth and Poverty reduction – Performance and Outlook – International Conference on the funding of ECOWAP/CAADP – 11-12 November 2009 Abuja, Nigeria
  • Source: ECOWAP/CAADP implementation: Agricultural Growth and Poverty reduction – Performance and Outlook – International Conference on the funding of ECOWAP/CAADP – 11-12 November 2009 Abuja, Nigeria
  • Source: ECOWAP/CAADP implementation: Agricultural Growth and Poverty reduction – Performance and Outlook – International Conference on the funding of ECOWAP/CAADP – 11-12 November 2009 Abuja, Nigeria
  • Source: ECOWAP/CAADP implementation: Agricultural Growth and Poverty reduction – Performance and Outlook – International Conference on the funding of ECOWAP/CAADP – 11-12 November 2009 Abuja, Nigeria
  • Source: ECOWAP/CAADP implementation: Agricultural Growth and Poverty reduction – Performance and Outlook – International Conference on the funding of ECOWAP/CAADP – 11-12 November 2009 Abuja, Nigeria
  • Source: Yade, M., Taondyande M., and Nwafor M. 2010. Monitoring the Millennium Development Goal 1 – MDG1 in West Africa
  • Source: Yade, M., Taondyande M., and Nwafor M. 2010. Monitoring the Millennium Development Goal 1 – MDG1 in West Africa
  • Source: Yade, M., Taondyande M., and Nwafor M. 2010. Monitoring the Millennium Development Goal 1 – MDG1 in West Africa
  • Source: Yade, M., Taondyande M., and Nwafor M. 2010. Monitoring the Millennium Development Goal 1 – MDG1 in West Africa
  • Sources: - Joint study ReSAKSS-WA/Michigan State University on the dynamics of Food Consumption in 7 countries in West Africa (2010/2011) - In-depth analysis of the food consumption dynamics study under FAO funding (2011/2012)
  • Sources: - Joint study ReSAKSS-WA/Michigan State University on the dynamics of Food Consumption in 7 countries in West Africa (2010/2011) - In-depth analysis of the food consumption dynamics study under FAO funding (2011/2012)
  • Sources: - Joint study ReSAKSS-WA/Michigan State University on the dynamics of Food Consumption in 7 countries in West Africa (2010/2011) - In-depth analysis of the food consumption dynamics study under FAO funding (2011/2012)
  • Sources: - Joint study ReSAKSS-WA/Michigan State University on the dynamics of Food Consumption in 7 countries in West Africa (2010/2011) - In-depth analysis of the food consumption dynamics study under FAO funding (2011/2012)
  • Sources: - Joint study ReSAKSS-WA/Michigan State University on the dynamics of Food Consumption in 7 countries in West Africa (2010/2011) - In-depth analysis of the food consumption dynamics study under FAO funding (2011/2012)
  • Sources: - Joint study ReSAKSS-WA/Michigan State University on the dynamics of Food Consumption in 7 countries in West Africa (2010/2011) - In-depth analysis of the food consumption dynamics study under FAO funding (2011/2012)
  • Source: Joint study ReSAKSS-WA/Michigan State University on the dynamics of Food Consumption in 7 countries in West Africa (2010/2011)
  • Source: Joint study ReSAKSS-WA/Michigan State University on the dynamics of Food Consumption in 7 countries in West Africa (2010/2011)
  • Source: ReSAKSS (2010), MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) SYSTEM FOR THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME (CAADP)
  • Source: ReSAKSS (2010), MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) SYSTEM FOR THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME (CAADP)
  • Source: ReSAKSS (2010), MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) SYSTEM FOR THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME (CAADP)
  • Source: ReSAKSS (2010), MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) SYSTEM FOR THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME (CAADP)
  • Source: ReSAKSS (2010), MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) SYSTEM FOR THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME (CAADP)
  • Source: ReSAKSS (2010), MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) SYSTEM FOR THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME (CAADP)
  • Source: ReSAKSS (2010), MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) SYSTEM FOR THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME (CAADP)
  • The good performance of WAEMU countries regarding the current account balance and inflation is due to restrictive regulations in the Union, aimed particularly at meeting the convergence criteria in terms of inflation and other macroeconomic aggregates. However, this positive performance does not seem to have promoted economic growth compared to the non WAEMU countries with higher inflation rates and larger current account deficits. Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).
  • Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).

Informing African Agricultural Development  Planning and Implementation in the context of  CAADP in West AfricaInforming African Agricultural Development Planning and Implementation in the context of CAADP in West Africa Presentation Transcript

  • CONTRACT REVIEW 26 April 2012 Informing African Agricultural DevelopmentPlanning and Implementation in the context of CAADP in West Africa By Mbaye Yade Coordinator ReSAKSS WA www.iita.org
  • OUTLINE• SOME BASIS TARGETS ANDPRINCIPLES OF CAADP• RESAKSS AS PART OF CAADPIMPLEMENTATION• STRATEGIC ANALYSIS•MONITORING AND EVALUATION•COUNTRY SAKSS ESTABLISHMENT•PROSPECTS www.iita.org
  • SOME BASIS TARGETS AND PRINCIPLES OF CAADP• CAADP as a strategic framework by which to guidecountry development efforts and partnerships in theagricultural sector: • agriculture led growth for poverty reduction; • increased funding of agriculture (10%) and • at least 6% agriculture growth – all targeted at achieving MGD1 and other welfare targets www.iita.org
  • Some basic Targets and Principles of CAADP – (1) mobilize existing expertise , capacities and knowledge and provide first-rate analytical and advisory services to countries and Regional Economic Communities in the design, implementation, and evaluation of CAADP programs. – (2) provide assistance to countries in the establishment of national knowledge system nodes to support CAADP implementation www.iita.org
  • Some basic Targets and Principles of CAADPWork with the national nodes to providerelevant and timely information to guide: – Mutual review at the continental level to review overall progress in the implementation of CAADP – Peer review at the regional level to promote dialogue and mutual learning around the review of progress and performance – Progress review at the national level to ensure that country level policies and programs are aligned with CAADP principles and on track to meet the country-specific targets and objectives www.iita.org
  • rategic Analysis and Monitoring of CAADP • 4 nodes: managed by IFPRI, and Agricultural Performance in Africa IITA, ILRI and IWMI • Key partners: AUC/NPCA and RECs Knowledge Management, CapacityStrengthening, and Policy Communications support review and dialogue evidence- and outcome-based planning and implementation of agricultural- sector policies and strategies in Africa www.iita.org
  • RESAKSS AS PART OF CAADP IMPLEMENTATIONRegional ReSAKSS nodes to: – Facilitate access by the RECs and their member states to policy-relevant analyses of the highest quality  improve policymaking, – Track progress, document success, and derive lessons that can feed into the review and learning processes associated with the implementation of the CAADP agenda www.iita.org
  • RESAKSS AS PART OF CAADP IMPLEMENTATIONNational Nodes: – pursuing the same objectives at national level – ensuring the mobilization and coordination of knowledge generating and dissemination networks – Comprising of: • An analytical node bringing together National Agricultural Research Institutes, universities, statistics offices, the technical arms of professional organizations, etc. • A framework for review, dialogue and advocacy coordinated at high level (Permanent Secretary of Director) including all stakeholders: government institutions, Professional associations, TFP, etc. www.iita.org
  • RESAKSS AS PART OF CAADP IMPLEMENTATION• Generate, compile, and share analyses and data relevant toagricultural and rural development in line with the nationalobjectives;• Perform strategic investment analyses for the agriculturalsector, especially for the different sub sectors, providingpractical policy and investment options;• Undertake monitoring and evaluation of the Agriculture SectorPlan programmes to facilitate evidence-based planning andimplementation;• Produce knowledge products for dissemination and outreachthrough a combination of real (stakeholder forums) and virtual(interactive multimedia services) mechanisms;• Contribute to fostering constructive, cross-sectoral policydebates and encourage dialogue and the exchange of data andknowledge among the different stakeholders at national,regional, and international levels;• Etc. www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS CONTRIBUTION TO NAIP AND RAIP DESIGN– STOCK TAKING EXERCICE– MODELING WORK– Review of the consistency of the NAIP’s vis a vis their growth, poverty and funding targets www.iita.org
  • CAADP COUNTRY PROCESS DONOR AND GOV IMPLEMENT GOV APPOINT FOCAL POINTSROUND TABLE REC&GOV SIGNING OF LAUNCH COMPACT START PROCESS COUNTRY STEERING & TECHNICAL DRAFTING COMMITTEE OF COUNTRY CAADP COMPACT STOCK TAKE CABINET GROWTH MEMO AND INVESTMENT ENDORSMENT ANALYSIS Page 11 www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS CONTRIBUTION TO NAIP AND RAIP DESIGN• TREND SCENARIO FOR GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION;• COMPARE TRENDS WITH CAADP AND MDG-1 TARGETS• ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS TO MEET CAADP AND MDG-1 TARGETS ;• ASSESS FUNDING REQUIREMENTS www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS CONTRIBUTION TO NAIP AND RAIP DESIGN Contribution of agricultural growth to poverty reduction at the national and rural levels (%)80706050403020100 BENIN BURKINA CAPE GAMBIE GHANA GUINEE LIBERIA MALI NIGER NIGERIA SENEGAL TOGO FASO VERT CONAKRY Agriculture Non Agriculture sectors www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS CONTRIBUTION TO NAIP AND RAIP DESIGNLong term contributions of agricultural growth to increases ofAgricultural GDP (millions of $US) and Poverty reduction (%) 450 35 Growth in Agricultural GDP 400 Reduction in national poverty rate 30 350 25 300 250 20 200 15 150 10US$edns M A B P gilo ) ( I 100 5 50 0 0 % lp y va h nR io u d e c Benin Burkina Faso Cape Verde The Gambia Ghana Guinea Liberia Mali Niger Senegal Togo ) ( r t www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS CONTRIBUTION TO NAIP AND RAIP DESIGN Strategic agricultural subsectors for agricultural growth and poverty reductionBenin Food crops (Roots and Tuber)*Burkina Faso Cattle and Sorghum/milletCape Verde Food cropsThe Gambia Cereals (millet/Sorghum)* and livestockGhana Root crops and fisheriesGuinea RiceLiberia Food cropsMali Food crops (Rice; Millet/Sorghum)*Niger LivestockNigeria Cassava, RiceSenegal Livestock and food crops (millet/sorghum; Rice)*Sierra Leone Cassava www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS CONTRIBUTION TO NAIP AND RAIP DESIGNEXPECTED AG GROWTH IN 2015 UNDER DIFFERENT SCENARIOS 16.0 16.0 14.0 14.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 e e so al ia a er na ria a in go i rd on al ne bi er eg en Fa ig To ha be M Ve am Le ig ui N en B G Li na N G e G rra S ap ki ie ur C S B bau national strategies CAADP www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS CONTRIBUTION TO NAIP AND RAIP DESIGNEXPECTED POVERTY REDUCTION BY 2015 UNDER DIFFERENT SCENARIOS bau national strategies CAADP MDG1 40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0 -40.0 -60.0 -80.0-100.0 so e a de in go er al ia a na i ria al on bi ne Fa en eg er ig er ha To M be am Le ui N ig en B V na G Li G N G e a S ki ap rr ur ie C B www.iita.org S
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS CONTRIBUTION TO NAIP AND RAIP DESIGNCURRENT AG EXPENDITURE RATIOS REQUIRED AG EXPENDITURETO TOTAL EXPENDITURES (%) GROWTH TO MEET 6% AGRICULTURAL GROWTH www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS CONTRIBUTION TO NAIP AND RAIP DESIGNCURRENT FUNDING EFFICIENCY: ELASTICITY VIS-À-VIS AG GROWTH www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS MONITORING MDG1POVERTY INCIDENCE IN WEST AFRICA IN THE 1990’S (%) www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS MONITORING MDG1POVERTY TRENDS DURING THE 1990s AND THE 2000s www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS MONITORING MDG1Poverty reduction rate required for reaching theMDG1 by 2015 compared to current trends www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS MONITORING MDG1 REQUIRED POVERTY REDUCTION RATES TO HALVE 1990 POVERTY LEVEL IN 2020 OR 2025 4.0% Current 2020 2025 -1.0% dIvoire Senegal Benin Niger Gambia Nigeria Mali Burkina -6.0% Côte Faso-11.0%-16.0% www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS FOOD CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS IN WEST AFRICA• STUDY ON THE DYNAMICS OF FOOD CONSUMPTION IN WESTAFRICA CONDUCTED JOINTLY WITH MICHIGAN STATEUNIVERSITY IN 7 COUNTRIES: BENIN, BURKINA FASO, COTED’IVOIRE, MALI, NIGER, SENEGAL, AND TOGO: - ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE SURVEYS - ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL FOOD BALANCES - REGRESSION ANALYSIS => MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES/DEMAND ELASTICITIES – REGIONAL SYNTHESIS REPORT• IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS UNDER FAO CONTRACT INCLUDINGGHANA: - REVENU TRENDS - DYNAMICS AND DETERMINANTS OF FOOD CONSUMPTION - FOOD DEMAND PROSPECTS www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS FOOD CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS IN WEST AFRICAINCOME TRENDS DISAGREGATED BY QUINTILESCountry Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 NationalBurkina Faso 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 2.9% 3.4%Côte dIvoire -3.1% -2.5% -2.4% -2.5% -2.7% -2.6%Ghana 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2%Mali -2.5% -2.2% -2.2% -1.9% -0.6% -1.4%Sénégal 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS FOOD CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS IN WEST AFRICACALORIFIC CONSUMPTION SHARES IN % (2004-2008) Food product Burkina Faso Senegal Niger Togo Côte dIvoire Cereals 65.1 63.4 62.9 48.4 31.3 Roots and tubers 0.3 1.9 1.7 24.9 32.6 Legumes 10.1 0.8 14.1 3.7 0.7 Oil and Fats 11.9 17.0 8.8 14.2 13.0 Fruits and vegetables 2.1 2,5 2.9 1.2 8.0 Sugar and sweeteners 2.4 4.6   2.9 3.8 Alcoholic drinks 3.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 2.0 Animal products 4.1 8.2 9.5 3.5 4.6 Others 0.8 1.5 0.0 0.4 4.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS FOOD CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS IN WEST AFRICACalorific contribution of macro nutrients in % (2004-2008) Country Carbohydrate Proteins Lipids Burkina Faso 68.0 12.0 20.0 Côte d‘Ivoire 73.2 8.3 18.6 Niger 68.2 13.1 18.7 Senegal 65.1 10.4 24.5 Togo 71.2 9.1 19.7 Recommended Ratios Minimum 50 11 30 Maximum 55 15 35 www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS FOOD CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS IN WEST AFRICAAbsolute budget share by food product groupFood Product group Benin Burkina Cote Ghan Mali Niger Senegal Togo Faso d’Ivoire a 2007 2009 2008 2006 2006 2005 2002 2006Cereals 22.5 55.1 25.7 22.8 44.5 60.9 28.9 20.8Roots, Tubers and Plantain 10.2 0.6 16.8 15.0 1.9 0.8 2.3 8.0Légumineuses 3.7 3.6 1.6 1.8 2.7Fats and vegetal oils and fats 8.6 4.9 6.9 5.1 6.5 3.3 8.6 6.4Fruits and vegetables 11.6 6.1 15.7 13.9 9.9 4.8 11.9 14.9Animal products and fish 30.1 10.0 22.6 29.2 22.2 12.1 26.8 17.8Beverage and Stimulants 6.7 8.1 2.4 6.6 6.9 4.2 6.2Other food products 6.7 11.5 10.0 7.4 6.4 12.0 21.5 23.2Ratio of food expenditures to 61.7 53.6 38.6 51.0 43.4 60.1 50.8 51.6total expenditures www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS FOOD CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS IN WEST AFRICAFood expenditures concentration ratio www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS FOOD CONSUMPTIONDYNAMICS IN WEST AFRICA www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS FOOD CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS IN WEST AFRICAMarginal budget shares of selected food productsin rural areas www.iita.org
  • STRATEGIC ANALYSIS FOOD CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS IN WEST AFRICAMarginal budget shares of selected food products inurban areas www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK• Request from AU/NEPAD addressed toReSAKSS• Validation of the Framework March 2010 www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK CONDITIONING FACTORS Hunger Goal Level • Household assets and  endowments Poverty • Natural disasters • Conflict Intermediate-Goal Level • Non-agricultural  Income production • Employment Prices • Rural wages • Inflation Outcome LevelSustainable Land Agricultural • ResourcesManagement Production & Food Agricultural Trade   • Rainfall  Supply • Natural disasters   • Trade policies • Exchange rate Output Level Physical Capital •  Prices • Initial conditions of  Irrigation systems Human Capital   capital Rural roads • Social services  Marketing infrastructure Information, Knowledge, (education, health, social  Food reserve facilities and Technologies security) Input Level 1 2 3 4 • Political economy Land Rural Infras. and Agricultural Food Security and • Governance Management and Trade-Related Research and Safety Nets • Institutions Water Control Market Access Technology Dev’t • Total government revenue Systems • Private-sector  investments/FDI Institutional Capacity Strengthening • ODA (and harmonization)Investments www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK MAIN QUESTIONS ADDRESSED: 1. ENABLING ENVIRONMENTWhat policies, institutions and mechanisms are in place toenhance economic management e.g. political andeconomic governance, private sector development, andequity?How credible and relevant has the evidence used in theprocess of designing the investment programs been?Have the processes been inclusive of all stakeholders, andare investment programs aligned with the CAADPprinciples and targets?Are mechanisms in place for implementing the investmentand monitoring and evaluating its impacts? www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK 2. DELIVERING ON COMMITMENTS AND ACHIEVING STATED TARGETS• Are development partners making good on theirfinancial commitments to support CAADP?• Are governments allocating 10 percent (or othershare as stated in their investment plans) of theirtotal budgetary resources to the agriculturalsector?• Have expectations in terms of being on track toachieving the CAADP growth and reducingpoverty, hunger, and food and nutrition insecuritybeen met so far? www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK 3. EFFECTIVENESS OF INTERVENTIONS (PROCESSES, POLICIES, INVESTMENTS)• How effective have different types ofinterventions been in the achievementsrealized so far?• What factors have shaped the level of impactthat has been achieved?• What are the trade-offs andcomplementarities, if any, among differenttypes of interventions? www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK 4. CONSISTENCY OF PLANNED INTERVENTIONS WITH INITIAL TARGETS• What are the projected impacts ifinterventions proceed as currentlyplanned?• Are these projected impactscompatible with the CAADP growth andgoals on reducing poverty, hunger, andfood and nutrition insecurity? www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK 5. EXPLORING INTERVENTIONS WITH GREATER OR BETTER DISTRIBUTED IMPACTS• Could greater or better distributed impacts beobtained by reconfiguring the interventions?• What are the different or new interventions that canlead to greater and more sustainable growth as wellas greater and better distributed impacts?• What are the new targets that can be set forimplementing these new types of interventions?• What are the resources needed for implementingthese new interventions to achieve the desiredimpacts? www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK INDICATORSSMART: Specific, Measurable, Achievable,Realistic and Timely:• 13 Process indicators (M&E of CAADP Design)• 4 Input Indicators (Agricultural Funding: MaputoDeclaration)• 22 Output and Outcome Indicators (AgriculturalPerformance)• 8 Impact Indicators (CAADP Goals: poverty, hunger,malnutrition, etc.) www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATIONANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) PROCESSES AND PRINCIPLESFRAMEWORK – (POLICY/PRIMARY FACTOR ENDOWMENT) – FUNDING – AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE – TRADE PERFORMANCE – POVERTY, HUNGER, CHILD MALNUTRITION – LINKAGES BETWEEN FUNDING, PERFORMANCE, AND LIVELIHOODS NO OR LIMITED PRIMARY DATA COLLECTIONCHALLENGES – DATA QUALITY – CONTINUITY – DATA FORMAT COMPATIBILITY – SUSTAINABILITY www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATIONANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) PROCESSES AND PRINCIPLESTEAM: CORE COUNTRY ACTORS – Planning and statistics unit of MINAGRI (PSU) as coordinator – National Institute of Statistics (poverty unit, national accounting unit) – Budget unit in Ministries of Finance – Professional think tanks – Market information systems – M&E units in other relevant ministries such as livestock, environment, fisheries, trade, etc – NARS including Universities – Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRSP) unit www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) PROCESSES AND PRINCIPLESACTIVITIES: REGIONAL – Drafting of terms of reference: list and specification of indicators, rationale, definitions, computation, sources and links to policy targets; profile of collaborators – Methodology workshops , quality review, technical backstopping – Regional synthesis of each component by ReSAKSS in collaboration with lead experts – Regional validation and dissemination workshop – Finalization of regional trends and outlook report www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATIONANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) PROCESSES AND PRINCIPLESACTIVITIES AT NATIONAL LEVEL – PSU as coordinator develops operational plan and monitors execution – Data collection and analysis by different subgroups following the components – Subgroup reports submitted to the planning unit with data sheets as annexes – Planning unit consolidates subgroup reports and submits to ReSAKSS with all data sheets for review – Technical meetings and national validation workshops – Finalization of national trends and outlook report www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR – SELECTED MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS annual GDP growth Current account balance (% of GDP) Inflation rateCountry 20102007/08-2009/10 20102008-2010 20102008-2010Benin 2.60% 3.40% -4.20% -14.80% 1.90% 3.70%Burkina Faso 8.70% 5.70% -3.30% -6.50% -0.60% 4.20%Cape Verde 5.40% 5.10% -11.20% -13.20% 2.10% 3.30%Cote dIvoire 1.10% 2.60% 43.00% 26.40% 1.80% 3.00%Gambia 6.10% 6.00% -17.10% -12.10% 5.80% 5.10%Ghana 6.60% 6.60% -8.60% -9.10% 10.70% 15.50%Guinea 1.90% 2.20% -7.20% -9.50% 15.50% 12.80%Guinea Bissau 3.50% 3.20% 0.00% -4.50% 2.50% 3.80%Liberia (1) 5.50% 5.70% -42.20% -38.60% 7.40% 12.50%Mali 5.80% 5.10% -7.80% -9.10% 1.20% 4.20%Niger (1) 8.50% 5.60% -20.70% -18.60% 0.90% 4.90%Nigeria 7.90% 6.90% 1.30% 7.60% 13.70% 12.60%Senegal 4.10% 3.30% -7.00% -10.20% 1.20% 2.00%Sierra Leone 4.90% 4.60% -16.80% -12.90% 16.60% 13.60%Togo (2) 3.70% 3.20% -5.60% -6.30% 2.10% 4.20%median ECOWAS 5.40% 5.10% -7.20% -9.50% 2.10% 4.20%Median WAEMU 3.90% 3.40% -4.90% -7.80% 1.50% 4.00%median non WAEMU 5.50% 5.70% -11.20% -12.10% 10.70% 12.60%diff. WAEMU 1.60% 2.40% -6.30% -4.30% 9.20% 8.60%Sahelian countries 5.80% 5.10% -7.80% -10.20% 1.20% 4.20%Coastal Countries 4.30% 4.00% -6.40% -9.30% 9.10% 12.50%ECOWAS without www.iita.orgNigeria 5.20% 4.80% -7.50% -9.90% 2.10% 4.20%
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR – Agricultural FundingAgricultural expenditures ratio Agricultural expenditures trends www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR – Agricultural Funding Sectoral distribution of agricultural expenditure over the period 2008-2010Country Crop production Livestock Fisheries Forestry % ag. % ag. % ag. % ag. Expenditur Expenditur Expenditur Expenditur e % ag GDP e % ag GDP e % ag GDP e % ag GDPBenin 70.80% 72.60% 4.00% 15.40% 9.90% 6.80% 15.30% 5.20%BurkinaFaso 71.20% 52.90% 20.50% 35.40% 8.30% 11.70%CôtedIvoire 82.20% 89.90% 12.00% 7.70% 1.30% 0.40% 4.50% 2.00%Mali 65.30% 61.80% 24.80% 27.90% 10.00% 10.30%Senegal 71.80% 57.20% 7.80% 29.30% 8.60% 8.90% 11.80% 4.50% www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR – Agricultural FundingBreakdown of agricultural expenditure by function for 2008-2010 www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATIONANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR – AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCEAgricultural Growth in 2008-2010 Country 2008 2009 2010 AAGR Benin 3.60% 2.50% 1.40% 2.50% Burkina Faso 8.10% -4.10% 9.00% 3.30% Cape Verde 16.10% 0.40% 4.50% 6.20% Côte dIvoire -1.00% 5.40% 4.90% 3.30% The Gambia 28.60% 13.50% 12.10% 17.40% Ghana 7.40% 7.20% 5.30% 6.70% Guinea 3.60% 3.20% 3.20% 3.30% Bissau-Guinea 5.60% 9.60% 3.30% 6.50% Liberia 7.20% 6.50% 5.20% 6.30% Mali 13.20% 5.60% 7.70% 8.50% Niger 16.20% -9.50% 16.30% 5.20% Nigeria 6.30% 5.90% 5.70% 5.90% Senegal 19.70% 11.40% 4.90% 11.80% Sierra Leone 4.50% 4.00% 4.10% 4.20% Togo 4.00% 8.30% 3.10% 5.40% ECOWAS 6.60% 5.50% 5.80% 5.90% coastal countries 6.10% 6.00% 5.50% 5.90% Sahelian countries 13.00% -0.60% 9.70% 6.40% www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR – AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE RECENT TRENDS IN CEREAL PRODUCTION IN WEST AFRICACountry 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Benin 5.10% 5.70% 9.40% 19.00% 1.40%Burkina Faso 0.90% -16.10% 41.10% -16.60% 25.50%Cap Vert 12.80% -25.50% 277.60% -36.30% -4.60%Côte dIvoire 1.40% -15.00% 15.20% 1.30% 1.80%Gambia 4.70% -30.20% 60.50% 29.00% 16.90%Ghana 1.10% -17.50% 45.10% 13.80% 11.30%Guinea 6.70% 6.30% 1.20% 4.20% 6.60%Guinea Bissau 6.00% -18.50% 18.20% -4.40% 14.40%Liberia 5.90% 41.30% 20.40% 5.00% 1.10%Mali 8.70% 5.20% 6.00% 53.80% 1.30%Niger 10.80% -4.90% 27.00% -27.90% 45.90%Nigeria 6.60% 6.60% 6.60% 5.50% 4.80%Senegal -28.40% -22.60% 99.30% 7.40% -5.40%Sierra Leone 4.50% 15.60% 29.70% 17.60% 15.20%Togo 6.90% -1.30% 6.60% 13.40% -1.50%West Africa 5.20%www.iita.org 2.00% 12.80% 5.30% 7.80%
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR – AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE RECENT TRENDS IN ROOTS AND TUBERS PRODUCTION IN WEST AFRICACountry 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Benin -11.20% -9.40% 54.20% 3.50% 11.80%Burkina Faso 16.20% -21.20% 42.80% 39.40% 17.10%Cap Vert 14.30% 6.30% 0.00% 53.50% 3.50%Côte dIvoire 6.40% 0.20% 8.00% -10.60% 1.70%Gambia 0.00% 4.00% 0.00% -5.50% 3.10%Ghana 2.70% 4.50% 5.80% 13.30% 6.70%Guinea 4.90% 2.50% 2.40% 1.40% 2.80%Guinea Bissau 5.30% 8.50% 10.00% 138.80% 10.30%Liberia 2.00% 8.60% -7.50% -12.80% -0.50%Mali 39.30% 52.60% 2.50% -12.90% -13.40%Niger 35.60% 16.80% -33.30% -9.40% -63.50%Nigeria 8.70% 6.60% 7.70% 6.40% 6.00%Senegal -57.10% 155.10% 211.70% -66.10% -22.80%Sierra Leone 28.30% 4.90% 42.30% 15.40% 15.50%Togo 9.90% 0.20% 5.30% 10.80% 1.30%West Africa 6.80%www.iita.org 5.30% 10.00% 5.60% 6.10%
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATIONANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR – AGRICULTURAL TRADEAGRICULTURAL EXPORTS VALUE BY PRODUCT www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATIONANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR – AGRICULTURAL TRADE•AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS VALUE BY COUNTRY www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR – AGRICULTURAL TRADEFOOD AND AGRICULTURAL TRADE BALANCE (RATIO EXPORTS/IMPORTS) www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR – AGRICULTURAL TRADEFOOD TRADE BALANCE (RATIO EXPORTS/IMPORTS) www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATIONANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR - POVERTYNATIONAL POVERTY LINE BASED POVERTYINCIDENCE80.070.060.050.0 1990s40.0 2000s30.020.010.0 0.0 Benin Burkina Cape Cote Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea- Liberia Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal Sierra Togo Faso Verde dIvoire Bissau Leone www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR - POVERTYPOVERTY GAP RATIO60.050.040.0 1990s30.0 2000s20.010.0 0.0 Benin Burkina Cape Cote Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea- Liberia Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal Sierra Togo Faso Verde dIvoire Bissau Leone www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATIONANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR - POVERTYSHARE OF POOREST QUINTILE IN NATIONALCONSUMPTION 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 1990s 4.0 2000s 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 B e nin B u rk ina C ap e C o te G am b ia G h ana G u ine a G u ine a- Lib e ria M ali N ige r N ige ria S e n e gal S ie rra T o go F as o Ve rd e d Ivo ire B is s au Le o ne www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATIONANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR – CHILD MALNUTRITIONSTUNTING60.050.0 1990s40.0 2000s30.020.010.0 0.0 Benin Burkina Cote Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea- Liberia Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal Sierra Togo Faso dIvoire Bissau Leone www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATION ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR - HUNGERPERCENTAGE OF POPULATION UNDERNOURISHED60 1990s 2000s50403020100 B e nin B u rk ina C ap e C ô te G am b ia G h ana G u ine a G u ine a- Libe ria M ali N ige r N ige ria S e ne gal S ie rra T o go F as o Ve rd e d Ivo ire B is s au Le o ne www.iita.org
  • MONITORING AND EVALUATIONANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORTS (ATOR) 2011 ATOR -HUNGERGLOBAL HUNGER INDEX 40 35 1990 2 009 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 B enin B urkina C o te G am b ia G hana G uinea G uinea- Lib eria M ali N ig er N ig eria S eneg al S ierra To go F as o d Ivo ire B is s au Leo ne www.iita.org
  • ESTABLISHMENT OF COUNTRY SAKSS • Guidelines for the establishment of CAADP Country Team, including the SAKSS node • Support to Ghana, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo to implement the guidelines and set up the national SAKSS node • Support to the agricultural statistics unit of Togo to : – harmonize CAADP M&E framework with M&E needs for NAIP – conduct the baseline study for the implementation of Togo NAIP. www.iita.org
  • PROSPECTS• SUPPORT TO NATIONAL ATOR AND PRODUCTIONOF REGIONAL ATOR•TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO SET UP/STRENGTHEN COUNTRY SAKSS NODES IN “SAKSS READYCOUNTRIES”•CAPACITY STRENGTHENING OF ECOWAS ANDOTHER REGIONAL INSTITUTIONS•STRATEGIC ANALYSIS: ATOR FEATURE THEMES: 2012: FLOWS AND IMPACT OF AGRICULTURALINVESTMENTS (PUBLIC AND PRIVATE; FDI IN LAND) 2013: AGRICULTURE AND VULNERABILITY AND SOCIALPROTECTION STRATEGIES IN AFRICA 2014: MDG ACHIEVEMENT STATUS IN AFRICA 2015: POST MDG GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTIONSTRATEGIES IN AFRICA www.iita.org
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