IFPRI/Badiane	
  
OUSMANE	
  BADIANE	
  
Director	
  for	
  Africa	
  
	
  
Interna:onal	
  Food	
  Policy	
  Research	
  ...
 MAIN	
  TOPICS	
  
1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS
2	
  
3	
   REGIONAL	
  TRADE	
  AND	
  RESILIENCE	
 ...
 MAIN	
  TOPICS	
  
1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS
2	
  
3	
   REGIONAL	
  TRADE	
  AND	
  RESILIENCE	
 ...
OVERALL	
  GDP	
  GROWTH	
  TRENDS	
  
Annual	
  GDP	
  growrth	
  rate,	
  1980	
  –	
  2010	
  	
  COMESA	
   Annual	
  ...
PROGRESS	
  TOWARDS	
  GROWTH	
  TARGET	
  –	
  BY	
  RECs	
  
Agriculture	
  GDP	
  growth,	
  1980	
  –	
  2010	
  	
  C...
PROGRESS	
  TOWARDS	
  GROWTH	
  TARGET	
  BY	
  COUNTRY	
  -­‐	
  COMESA	
  
Agriculture	
  GDP	
  growth	
  by	
  countr...
PROGRESS	
  TOWARDS	
  GROWTH	
  TARGET	
  BY	
  COUNTRY	
  -­‐	
  ECCAS	
  
Agriculture	
  GDP	
  growth	
  by	
  country...
PROGRESS	
  TOWARDS	
  GROWTH	
  TARGET	
  BY	
  COUNTRY	
  -­‐	
  ECOWAS	
  
Agriculture	
  GDP	
  growth	
  by	
  countr...
PROGRESS	
  TOWARDS	
  GROWTH	
  TARGET	
  BY	
  COUNTRY	
  -­‐	
  SADC	
  
Agriculture	
  GDP	
  growth	
  by	
  country,...
PROGRESS	
  TOWARDS	
  MAPUTO	
  TARGET	
  BY	
  RECs	
  
Agriculture	
  expenditure	
  share,	
  1980	
  –	
  2010	
  	
 ...
PROGRESS	
  TOWARDS	
  MAPUTO	
  TARGET	
  BY	
  COUNTRY	
  -­‐	
  COMESA	
  
Agriculture	
  expenditure	
  share	
  by	
 ...
PROGRESS	
  TOWARDS	
  MAPUTO	
  TARGET	
  BY	
  COUNTRY	
  -­‐	
  ECCAS	
  
Agriculture	
  expenditure	
  share	
  by	
  ...
PROGRESS	
  TOWARDS	
  MAPUTO	
  TARGET	
  BY	
  COUNTRY	
  -­‐	
  ECOWAS	
  
Agriculture	
  expenditure	
  share	
  by	
 ...
PROGRESS	
  TOWARDS	
  MAPUTO	
  TARGET	
  BY	
  COUNTRY	
  -­‐	
  SADC	
  
Agriculture	
  expenditure	
  share	
  by	
  c...
ANNUAL	
  GROWTH	
  RATE	
  OF	
  PUBLIC	
  AG.	
  EXPENDITURE	
  –	
  2003	
  -­‐	
  2010	
  
Source:	
  Benin	
  and	
  ...
 MAIN	
  TOPICS	
  
1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS
2	
  
3	
   REGIONAL	
  TRADE	
  AND	
  RESILIENCE	
 ...
EXPORT
GROWTH
INDUST.
GROWTH
1%
Growth
0.04%
To
1.83%
AGR. EXPORT AND DOMESTIC GROWTH
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Niger Senegal Za...
0.00%	
  
10.00%	
  
20.00%	
  
30.00%	
  
40.00%	
  
50.00%	
  
60.00%	
  
70.00%	
  
Ra:o	
  between	
  domes:c	
  and	
...
•  World prices of maize, rice, and
wheat are less volatile (0.073 –
0.082) than African prices of the
same commodities (0...
-­‐1	
   -­‐0.8	
   -­‐0.6	
   -­‐0.4	
   -­‐0.2	
   0	
   0.2	
   0.4	
   0.6	
   0.8	
   1	
   1.2	
  
ZAF	
  
ZWE	
  
O...
 MAIN	
  TOPICS	
  
1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS
2	
  
3	
   REGIONAL	
  TRADE	
  AND	
  RESILIENCE	
 ...
Potential agribusiness growth and expected income
to farmers
US$ billion
3 8
50
10 10.5
150
High value
exports
Commodities...
REGIONAL	
  TRADE	
  AND	
  RESILIENCE:	
  THE	
  SUPPLY	
  STABILIZATION	
  CHANNEL	
  Coted'Ivoire
ECOWAS
Togo
Guinea
Be...
0	
  
50	
  
100	
  
150	
  
200	
  
250	
  
300	
  
350	
  
0-­‐10	
   10-­‐20	
   20-­‐30	
   30-­‐40	
   40-­‐50	
   50...
0	
  
100	
  
200	
  
300	
  
400	
  
500	
  
600	
  
700	
  
800	
  
0-­‐10	
   10-­‐20	
   20-­‐30	
   30-­‐40	
   40-­‐...
q  Baseline	
  =	
  2000-­‐2007	
  
	
  
q  SIM1	
  =	
  0.5%	
  reduc:on	
  in	
  trade	
  cost	
  annually	
  2013	
  ...
0	
  
5	
  
10	
  
15	
  
20	
  
25	
  
BurkinaFaso	
  
CapeVerde	
  
Chad	
  
Gambia	
  
Mali	
  
Mauritania	
  
Niger	
 ...
-­‐15	
  
-­‐10	
  
-­‐5	
  
0	
  
5	
  
10	
  
15	
  
20	
  
25	
  
30	
  
BurkinaFaso	
  
CapeVerde	
  
Chad	
  
Gambia	...
0	
  
5	
  
10	
  
15	
  
20	
  
25	
  
30	
  
Baseline	
   SIM1	
   SIM2	
   SIM3	
  
Percentage	
  CHANGE	
  IN	
  TOTAL...
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Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2013: Trade and Resilience

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"Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2013: Trade and Resilience" presented by Ousmane Badiane at 10th CAADP PP Meeting Durban, South Africa March 19-21, 2014

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Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2013: Trade and Resilience

  1. 1. IFPRI/Badiane   OUSMANE  BADIANE   Director  for  Africa     Interna:onal  Food  Policy  Research  Ins:tute     ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013     Feature  Topic:  Trade  and  Resilience  
  2. 2.  MAIN  TOPICS   1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS 2   3   REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013   FEATURE  TOPIC:  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  
  3. 3.  MAIN  TOPICS   1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS 2   3   REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013   FEATURE  TOPIC:  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  
  4. 4. OVERALL  GDP  GROWTH  TRENDS   Annual  GDP  growrth  rate,  1980  –  2010    COMESA   Annual  GDP  growrth  rate,  1980  –  2010    ECCAS   Annual  GDP  growrth  rate,  1980  –  2010    ECOWAS   Annual  GDP  growrth  rate,  1980  –  2010    SADC  
  5. 5. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  –  BY  RECs   Agriculture  GDP  growth,  1980  –  2010    COMESA   Agriculture  GDP  growth,  1980  –  2010    ECCAS   Agriculture  GDP  growth,  1980  –  2010    ECOWAS   Agriculture  GDP  growth,  1980  –  2010    SADC  
  6. 6. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  COMESA   Agriculture  GDP  growth  by  country,  1980  –  2010    COMESA  
  7. 7. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  ECCAS   Agriculture  GDP  growth  by  country,  1980  –  2010    ECCAS  
  8. 8. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  ECOWAS   Agriculture  GDP  growth  by  country,  1980  –  2010    ECOWAS  
  9. 9. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  SADC   Agriculture  GDP  growth  by  country,  1980  –  2010    SADC  
  10. 10. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  RECs   Agriculture  expenditure  share,  1980  –  2010    COMESA   Agriculture  expenditure  share,  1980  –  2010    ECCAS   Agriculture  expenditure  share,  1980  –  2010    ECOWAS   Agriculture  expenditure  share,  1980  –  2010    SADC  
  11. 11. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  COMESA   Agriculture  expenditure  share  by  country  -­‐    COMESA  
  12. 12. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  ECCAS   Agriculture  expenditure  share  by  country  -­‐    ECCAS  
  13. 13. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  ECOWAS   Agriculture  expenditure  share  by  country  -­‐    ECOWAS  
  14. 14. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  SADC   Agriculture  expenditure  share  by  country  -­‐    SADC  
  15. 15. ANNUAL  GROWTH  RATE  OF  PUBLIC  AG.  EXPENDITURE  –  2003  -­‐  2010   Source:  Benin  and  Yu.  ATOR  2012.    
  16. 16.  MAIN  TOPICS   1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS 2   3   REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013   FEATURE  TOPIC:  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  
  17. 17. EXPORT GROWTH INDUST. GROWTH 1% Growth 0.04% To 1.83% AGR. EXPORT AND DOMESTIC GROWTH 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Niger Senegal Zambia Burkina Faso The  increase  in  non-­‐agricultural   incomes  resul:ng  from  $1.00   incremental  revenue  from  sales   of  agricultural  products     The  increase  in  non-­‐agricultural   growth  resul:ng  from  1%   incremental  revenue  from   agricultural  exports   TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  INCOME/REVENUE  CHANNEL  
  18. 18. 0.00%   10.00%   20.00%   30.00%   40.00%   50.00%   60.00%   70.00%   Ra:o  between  domes:c  and  global  supply  vola:lity     GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  SUPPLY  STABILIZATION  CHANNEL  
  19. 19. •  World prices of maize, rice, and wheat are less volatile (0.073 – 0.082) than African prices of the same commodities (0.094 – 0.144) •  Prices of tradable goods in Africa are less volatile (0.106) than prices of non-tradable goods (0.133) •  Prices of processed foods (bread & cooking oil) are less volatile than prices of unprocessed foods •  Prices of drought-resistant grains (millet & sorghum) are less volatile than prices of other non- tradable grains (maize) GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  PRICE  STABILIZATION  CHANNEL  
  20. 20. -­‐1   -­‐0.8   -­‐0.6   -­‐0.4   -­‐0.2   0   0.2   0.4   0.6   0.8   1   1.2   ZAF   ZWE   Oceania   Africa   NGA   UGA   BFA   BWA   MOZ   SSA   South  America   CPV   NER   ZMB   STP   North  America   CAF   NAM   CEMAC   RWA   CIV   COG   SEN   GAB   TUN   Asia   Correla:on  between  export  and  import  prices  for  agricultural  products       TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  EXPORT  DIVERSIFICATION  CHANNEL  
  21. 21.  MAIN  TOPICS   1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS 2   3   REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013   FEATURE  TOPIC:  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  
  22. 22. Potential agribusiness growth and expected income to farmers US$ billion 3 8 50 10 10.5 150 High value exports Commodities Urban food 2000 2030 2.9 1.6 30 Potential Increased farmer income in 2030 Expected sector growth to 2030 Increase  in  Demand  and  Incomes  in  Billion  US$     IFPRI/Badiane   REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  INCOME/REVENUE  CHANNEL  
  23. 23. REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  SUPPLY  STABILIZATION  CHANNEL  Coted'Ivoire ECOWAS Togo Guinea Benin BurkinaFaso GuineaBissau Ghana Nigeria Niger Senegal Mali Gambia Liberia 0 10 20 30 40 50 ECOWAS Cereal Production Instability, 1980--2010 COMESA Comoros Egypt Uganda Burundi DRC Kenya Madagascar Angola Namibia Malawi Sudan Swaziland Zambia Rwanda Zimbabwe Mauritius 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 COMESA Cereal Production Instability, 1980--2010 SADC South.Africa Angola Namibia Malawi Mozambique Swaziland Zambia Lesotho Zimbabwe Bostowana Mauritius 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 SADC cereal production instability, 1980--2010 The  difference  between  the  average   regional  produc:on  vola:lity  levels   and  individual  country  vola:lity   indicates  scope  of  domes:c  market   stabiliza:on  through  regional  trade  
  24. 24. 0   50   100   150   200   250   300   350   0-­‐10   10-­‐20   20-­‐30   30-­‐40   40-­‐50   50-­‐60   60-­‐70   70-­‐80   80-­‐90   90-­‐100   Number  of  country  Pairs   Produc@on  Similarity  Index   COMESA   ECOWAS   SADC   Similarity  of  produc:on  paferns  within  RECs,  2007-­‐2011     SPECIALIZATION  AND  TRADE  EXPANSION  POTENTIAL     More  scope  for  trade   Less  scope  for  trade  
  25. 25. 0   100   200   300   400   500   600   700   800   0-­‐10   10-­‐20   20-­‐30   30-­‐40   40-­‐50   50-­‐60   60-­‐70   70-­‐80   80-­‐90   90-­‐100   Number  of  Country  Pairs   Export  Similarity  Index   COMESA   ECOWAS   SADC   Similarity  of  export  paferns  within  RECs,  2007-­‐2011     SPECIALIZATION  AND  TRADE  EXPANSION  POTENTIAL     More  scope  for  trade   Less  scope  for  trade  
  26. 26. q  Baseline  =  2000-­‐2007     q  SIM1  =  0.5%  reduc:on  in  trade  cost  annually  2013  –  2020   q  SIM2  =    50%  increase  in  yields  by  2020   q  SIM3  =  Combine  SIM1  and  SIM2   ALTERNATIVE  POLICY  OPTIONS  TO  EXPAND  REGIONAL  TRADE    
  27. 27. 0   5   10   15   20   25   BurkinaFaso   CapeVerde   Chad   Gambia   Mali   Mauritania   Niger   Senegal   Percentage   BASE   SIM1   SIM2   SIM3   CHANGE  IN  REGIONAL  IMPORTS  SAHELIAN  COUNTRIES  BY  2020  UNDER  ALTERNATIVE  SCENARIOS    
  28. 28. -­‐15   -­‐10   -­‐5   0   5   10   15   20   25   30   BurkinaFaso   CapeVerde   Chad   Gambia   Mali   Mauritania   Niger   Senegal   Percentage     BASE   SIM1   SIM2   SIM3   CHANGE  IN  REGIONAL  EXPORTS  SAHELIAN  COUNTRIES  BY  2020  UNDER  ALTERNATIVE  SCENARIOS    
  29. 29. 0   5   10   15   20   25   30   Baseline   SIM1   SIM2   SIM3   Percentage  CHANGE  IN  TOTAL  WEST  AFRICAN  INTRA-­‐REGIONAL  EXPORTS  BY  2020  UNDER  ALTERNATIVE  SCENARIOS    

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