Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2013: Trade and Resilience
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2013: Trade and Resilience

421
views

Published on

"Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2013: Trade and Resilience" presented by Ousmane Badiane at 10th CAADP PP Meeting Durban, South Africa March 19-21, 2014

"Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2013: Trade and Resilience" presented by Ousmane Badiane at 10th CAADP PP Meeting Durban, South Africa March 19-21, 2014

Published in: Education, Business

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
421
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
6
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. IFPRI/Badiane   OUSMANE  BADIANE   Director  for  Africa     Interna:onal  Food  Policy  Research  Ins:tute     ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013     Feature  Topic:  Trade  and  Resilience  
  • 2.  MAIN  TOPICS   1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS 2   3   REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013   FEATURE  TOPIC:  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  
  • 3.  MAIN  TOPICS   1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS 2   3   REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013   FEATURE  TOPIC:  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  
  • 4. OVERALL  GDP  GROWTH  TRENDS   Annual  GDP  growrth  rate,  1980  –  2010    COMESA   Annual  GDP  growrth  rate,  1980  –  2010    ECCAS   Annual  GDP  growrth  rate,  1980  –  2010    ECOWAS   Annual  GDP  growrth  rate,  1980  –  2010    SADC  
  • 5. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  –  BY  RECs   Agriculture  GDP  growth,  1980  –  2010    COMESA   Agriculture  GDP  growth,  1980  –  2010    ECCAS   Agriculture  GDP  growth,  1980  –  2010    ECOWAS   Agriculture  GDP  growth,  1980  –  2010    SADC  
  • 6. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  COMESA   Agriculture  GDP  growth  by  country,  1980  –  2010    COMESA  
  • 7. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  ECCAS   Agriculture  GDP  growth  by  country,  1980  –  2010    ECCAS  
  • 8. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  ECOWAS   Agriculture  GDP  growth  by  country,  1980  –  2010    ECOWAS  
  • 9. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  SADC   Agriculture  GDP  growth  by  country,  1980  –  2010    SADC  
  • 10. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  RECs   Agriculture  expenditure  share,  1980  –  2010    COMESA   Agriculture  expenditure  share,  1980  –  2010    ECCAS   Agriculture  expenditure  share,  1980  –  2010    ECOWAS   Agriculture  expenditure  share,  1980  –  2010    SADC  
  • 11. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  COMESA   Agriculture  expenditure  share  by  country  -­‐    COMESA  
  • 12. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  ECCAS   Agriculture  expenditure  share  by  country  -­‐    ECCAS  
  • 13. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  ECOWAS   Agriculture  expenditure  share  by  country  -­‐    ECOWAS  
  • 14. PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  SADC   Agriculture  expenditure  share  by  country  -­‐    SADC  
  • 15. ANNUAL  GROWTH  RATE  OF  PUBLIC  AG.  EXPENDITURE  –  2003  -­‐  2010   Source:  Benin  and  Yu.  ATOR  2012.    
  • 16.  MAIN  TOPICS   1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS 2   3   REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013   FEATURE  TOPIC:  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  
  • 17. EXPORT GROWTH INDUST. GROWTH 1% Growth 0.04% To 1.83% AGR. EXPORT AND DOMESTIC GROWTH 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Niger Senegal Zambia Burkina Faso The  increase  in  non-­‐agricultural   incomes  resul:ng  from  $1.00   incremental  revenue  from  sales   of  agricultural  products     The  increase  in  non-­‐agricultural   growth  resul:ng  from  1%   incremental  revenue  from   agricultural  exports   TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  INCOME/REVENUE  CHANNEL  
  • 18. 0.00%   10.00%   20.00%   30.00%   40.00%   50.00%   60.00%   70.00%   Ra:o  between  domes:c  and  global  supply  vola:lity     GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  SUPPLY  STABILIZATION  CHANNEL  
  • 19. •  World prices of maize, rice, and wheat are less volatile (0.073 – 0.082) than African prices of the same commodities (0.094 – 0.144) •  Prices of tradable goods in Africa are less volatile (0.106) than prices of non-tradable goods (0.133) •  Prices of processed foods (bread & cooking oil) are less volatile than prices of unprocessed foods •  Prices of drought-resistant grains (millet & sorghum) are less volatile than prices of other non- tradable grains (maize) GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  PRICE  STABILIZATION  CHANNEL  
  • 20. -­‐1   -­‐0.8   -­‐0.6   -­‐0.4   -­‐0.2   0   0.2   0.4   0.6   0.8   1   1.2   ZAF   ZWE   Oceania   Africa   NGA   UGA   BFA   BWA   MOZ   SSA   South  America   CPV   NER   ZMB   STP   North  America   CAF   NAM   CEMAC   RWA   CIV   COG   SEN   GAB   TUN   Asia   Correla:on  between  export  and  import  prices  for  agricultural  products       TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  EXPORT  DIVERSIFICATION  CHANNEL  
  • 21.  MAIN  TOPICS   1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS 2   3   REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE   ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013   FEATURE  TOPIC:  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  
  • 22. Potential agribusiness growth and expected income to farmers US$ billion 3 8 50 10 10.5 150 High value exports Commodities Urban food 2000 2030 2.9 1.6 30 Potential Increased farmer income in 2030 Expected sector growth to 2030 Increase  in  Demand  and  Incomes  in  Billion  US$     IFPRI/Badiane   REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  INCOME/REVENUE  CHANNEL  
  • 23. REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  SUPPLY  STABILIZATION  CHANNEL  Coted'Ivoire ECOWAS Togo Guinea Benin BurkinaFaso GuineaBissau Ghana Nigeria Niger Senegal Mali Gambia Liberia 0 10 20 30 40 50 ECOWAS Cereal Production Instability, 1980--2010 COMESA Comoros Egypt Uganda Burundi DRC Kenya Madagascar Angola Namibia Malawi Sudan Swaziland Zambia Rwanda Zimbabwe Mauritius 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 COMESA Cereal Production Instability, 1980--2010 SADC South.Africa Angola Namibia Malawi Mozambique Swaziland Zambia Lesotho Zimbabwe Bostowana Mauritius 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 SADC cereal production instability, 1980--2010 The  difference  between  the  average   regional  produc:on  vola:lity  levels   and  individual  country  vola:lity   indicates  scope  of  domes:c  market   stabiliza:on  through  regional  trade  
  • 24. 0   50   100   150   200   250   300   350   0-­‐10   10-­‐20   20-­‐30   30-­‐40   40-­‐50   50-­‐60   60-­‐70   70-­‐80   80-­‐90   90-­‐100   Number  of  country  Pairs   Produc@on  Similarity  Index   COMESA   ECOWAS   SADC   Similarity  of  produc:on  paferns  within  RECs,  2007-­‐2011     SPECIALIZATION  AND  TRADE  EXPANSION  POTENTIAL     More  scope  for  trade   Less  scope  for  trade  
  • 25. 0   100   200   300   400   500   600   700   800   0-­‐10   10-­‐20   20-­‐30   30-­‐40   40-­‐50   50-­‐60   60-­‐70   70-­‐80   80-­‐90   90-­‐100   Number  of  Country  Pairs   Export  Similarity  Index   COMESA   ECOWAS   SADC   Similarity  of  export  paferns  within  RECs,  2007-­‐2011     SPECIALIZATION  AND  TRADE  EXPANSION  POTENTIAL     More  scope  for  trade   Less  scope  for  trade  
  • 26. q  Baseline  =  2000-­‐2007     q  SIM1  =  0.5%  reduc:on  in  trade  cost  annually  2013  –  2020   q  SIM2  =    50%  increase  in  yields  by  2020   q  SIM3  =  Combine  SIM1  and  SIM2   ALTERNATIVE  POLICY  OPTIONS  TO  EXPAND  REGIONAL  TRADE    
  • 27. 0   5   10   15   20   25   BurkinaFaso   CapeVerde   Chad   Gambia   Mali   Mauritania   Niger   Senegal   Percentage   BASE   SIM1   SIM2   SIM3   CHANGE  IN  REGIONAL  IMPORTS  SAHELIAN  COUNTRIES  BY  2020  UNDER  ALTERNATIVE  SCENARIOS    
  • 28. -­‐15   -­‐10   -­‐5   0   5   10   15   20   25   30   BurkinaFaso   CapeVerde   Chad   Gambia   Mali   Mauritania   Niger   Senegal   Percentage     BASE   SIM1   SIM2   SIM3   CHANGE  IN  REGIONAL  EXPORTS  SAHELIAN  COUNTRIES  BY  2020  UNDER  ALTERNATIVE  SCENARIOS    
  • 29. 0   5   10   15   20   25   30   Baseline   SIM1   SIM2   SIM3   Percentage  CHANGE  IN  TOTAL  WEST  AFRICAN  INTRA-­‐REGIONAL  EXPORTS  BY  2020  UNDER  ALTERNATIVE  SCENARIOS    

×