Workshop on Aligning Efforts onAgricultural Policy and Knowledge  Systems in Support of CAADP              Stephen Mink   ...
Overview of Agric Public ExpenditureMaputo DeclarationStatus – agric expenditure tracking surveys -->  Modest decrease to ...
Proposed Support for AgPER in CAADPWB is drafting a proposal for enhancing AgPER workas part of country roundtable activit...
Module 1 – Core Diagnostic AgPERLargely a backward looking analysis, pulls the basicexpenditure data togetherProvides an a...
Module 2 – Medium-Term Expend. FrameworkMoves expenditure planning and management to amulti-year perspective (often three-...
Module 3 – Public Expenditure TrackingAssesses whether public resources budgeted areactually reaching the intended program...
Module 4 – Sub-sector Impact EvaluationThe core public expenditure diagnosis often identifiesbig spending programs that co...
Module 5 – Core AnalyticsFurther exploration of the impacts of publicagricultural expenditure levels and composition onsec...
Building Capacity for AgPERWithin MinAgs, especially for core diagnostic andMTEF componentsIn-country networks, especially...
Tentative Scale, Cost and Timeframe      Module roll-out, number of countries                                             ...
Questions: Aligning with Ongoing EffortsAre the two main entry points appropriate?Does the modular approach fit CAADP need...
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Analytical Support for Agricultural Public Expenditure Scale-Up in Sub-Saharan Africa

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"Analytical Support for Agricultural Public Expenditure Scale-Up in Sub-Saharan Africa" presentation by Stephen Mink, World Bank, at the NEPAD, IFPRI, AGRA and World Bank Meeting to Align Efforts on Agricultural Policy and Knowledge Systems, Dakar, Senegal, January 6-7, 2009.

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Analytical Support for Agricultural Public Expenditure Scale-Up in Sub-Saharan Africa

  1. 1. Workshop on Aligning Efforts onAgricultural Policy and Knowledge Systems in Support of CAADP Stephen Mink World Bank Session I Analytical Support for Agricultural PublicExpenditure Scale-Up in Sub-Saharan Africa Dakar, 6-7 January 2009
  2. 2. Overview of Agric Public ExpenditureMaputo DeclarationStatus – agric expenditure tracking surveys --> Modest decrease to 57% (2007) of countries allocating less than 5% of national expenditure 24% allocating 5-10% 19% allocating > 10%CAADP Roundtable process and support on sectorinvestment and public financing in particularExternal support to agricultural public investment Developing the programs – tools, analytics Financing the programs – coordination, consensus, simplification through programmatic support IFPRI, WB incl. with DFID, GF
  3. 3. Proposed Support for AgPER in CAADPWB is drafting a proposal for enhancing AgPER workas part of country roundtable activitiesProposal design: Modular/menu (4 + 1) Timing - country ownership is key --> two main entry points Capacity building Not all countriesKey to draw on CAADP experience incl. with ongoinganalytical support (stocktaking, options modeling)
  4. 4. Module 1 – Core Diagnostic AgPERLargely a backward looking analysis, pulls the basicexpenditure data togetherProvides an assessment of expenditure levels, trendsand compositionCompares these with stated national plans andpriorities, to identify consistency and gaps.Will establish: (i) incorporation of donor investmentfinance; (ii) COFOG classification; (iii) gaps betweenplanned and actual expenditure; (iv) availability ofinformation on private investment flows to the sector.
  5. 5. Module 2 – Medium-Term Expend. FrameworkMoves expenditure planning and management to amulti-year perspective (often three-year)Grapples with longer-term forces affecting resourceavailability and managementGives management attention to the sustainedadjustments needed to align sector expenditureefforts with longer-term goalsWorks best when part of systematic budget-wideeffort under Ministry of Finance leadershipThe World Bank is working closely with various SSAMinistries of Finance on MTEF development as partfinancial support to national budgetsSupport can help get agriculture included among pilotsector ministries for MTEF development
  6. 6. Module 3 – Public Expenditure TrackingAssesses whether public resources budgeted areactually reaching the intended programs andbeneficiariesThis tool is mostly applied in the health/educationsectors, but experience is growing in using it in theagricultural sector (e.g. Uganda, Ethiopia, Niger).Usually focuses selectively on an importantagricultural sector sub-component, as determined byconsensus (e.g. from PER diagnosis)Consists of a detailed tracking of resources throughadministrative and procedural steps, to identifyextent and causes of inefficient resource absorptionor deviation from plans.
  7. 7. Module 4 – Sub-sector Impact EvaluationThe core public expenditure diagnosis often identifiesbig spending programs that could improve outcomesProgram expenditure impact analysis is typicallymethodologically and data demanding, to undertakequantitative analysisExamples: irrigation investment, or of fertilizersubsidies (on physical productivity, welfare impacts,and their distribution)Data may need to be gathered (e.g. farminghousehold surveys), and the methodologicalapproaches vary by agricultural sub-sector, so thisexpenditure analysis is typically more focused andtime-consuming, hence likely to be most informativeonce the basic public expenditure diagnostic work isin hand
  8. 8. Module 5 – Core AnalyticsFurther exploration of the impacts of publicagricultural expenditure levels and composition onsector growth and welfare outcomesBuild upon analysis already done – IFPRI, WB/DFIDAgPER PartnershipExpanding this work both methodologically andacross more countries would fill important knowledgegapsAt the country level, the analysis would likely vary bycountry, dependant on available data and could aimto recognize household differentiation and itsimplications for the geographic and sub-sectorcomposition of spending
  9. 9. Building Capacity for AgPERWithin MinAgs, especially for core diagnostic andMTEF componentsIn-country networks, especially for expendituretracking, impact evaluation (e.g. academia, researchinstitutions / consortia, consulting firms)RECs, e.g. through ReSKASS and M&E capacityExternal agency technical support – lead partner mayvary at country-level, given capacity limits
  10. 10. Tentative Scale, Cost and Timeframe Module roll-out, number of countries Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 TotalM1 – Public Expenditure Reviews # Countries, @ USD 125 5 5 5 15M2 – Medium- Term Expenditure FrameworkDevelopment # Countries, @ USD50 4 4 4 12M3 – Public Expenditure Tracking # Countries, @ USD 100 2 3 4 9M4 – Expenditure Component Impact Analysis # Countries, @ USD 100 2 4 5 11M5 – Core Analytics # Countries, @ USD 50 2 2 2 6 Cross-country study, @ USD 125 Mobilizing resources for these AgPER activities
  11. 11. Questions: Aligning with Ongoing EffortsAre the two main entry points appropriate?Does the modular approach fit CAADP needs?If country selectivity is acceptable, what focuscountries?How much capacity building is practical?How best coordinate and draw on the variousexternal agencies’ strengths?

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