Aligning the World Bank Public Expenditure Review with CAADP_2009

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"Aligning the World Bank Public Expenditure Review with CAADP" presentation by Pius Chilonda at the NEPAD, IFPRI, AGRA and World Bank Meeting to Align Efforts on Agricultural Policy and Knowledge Systems, Dakar, Senegal, January 6-7, 2009.

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Aligning the World Bank Public Expenditure Review with CAADP_2009

  1. 1. Aligning the World Bank PublicExpenditure Review with CAADP Pius Chilonda Sub-Regional Coordinator, ReSAKSS-SA 6 January 2009, Dakar, Senegal
  2. 2. Supporting CAADP through…… • Identification and assessment of strategic options for accelerating agricultural growth and development in Southern Africa • Supports the monitoring of both regional (CAADP, SADC RISDP) and national agricultural growth targetsStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  3. 3. Focus areas • Increasing agricultural growth to reach an average annual growth rate of 6% as envisioned by CAADP/SADC RISDP as necessary for attaining overall economic growth, poverty reduction and food security. • Enhancing the contribution of agriculture to the achievement of the MDG 1 by 2015 • Assessing of policy and investment alternatives that will yield the highest payoff given commitments of increasing national agricultural budgets (10% Maputo Declaration 2003)Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  4. 4. Why agriculture public expenditure reviews? • 2003: African Union HSG Summit in Maputo, Mozambique, adopted CAADP as a framework for contributing to the attainment of food security and poverty reduction goals • Further adopted decision to commit at least 10% of the annual national budget to agric. & rural development by 2008 • AU/NEPAD mandated to monitor & report to the AU summit the progress in complying with Maputo decision • AU/NEPAD/FAO definition used as a basis (COFOG)Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  5. 5. Research questions • What is the progress towards the 10% Maputo declaration • Since national governments have committed to increasing national budgets to agriculture… – What sorts of investments will maximize growth? – What investments or policy changes will lead to poverty reduction? – What level of budget is needed to achieve CAADP, MDG goals?Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  6. 6. Efforts on AgPER to date• Technical meeting on Monitoring Trends and Spatial Analysis of Public Spending in Agriculture, May 2007• Various studies by IFPRI (Fan et al)Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  7. 7. Methodological issues aroundcollecting data on public spending• How can the information on government spending and allocation in agriculture be assembled and monitored over time?• How can we assess the impact of agricultural spending on growth and poverty reduction?• What is the minimum set of information needed?Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  8. 8. Rational and approaches of spatialanalysis • Can we map public targeting of public spending in agriculture? What approaches should be used for spatial analysis How can we relate geographical distribution of public spending in agriculture to underlying socio-economic and bio-physical factors? poverty, malnutrition, population density, access to markets and services, price and production risk, agricultural potential, etcStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  9. 9. Activities • Developed generic terms of reference for the collecting data on AgPER • Collecting data on AgPER on budgetary allocation to agriculture; data feeds into the AU/NEPAD/FAO work • Detailed country case studies (Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia) • Analysis of AgPER data and using it for dialogue at national and regional levels • This is seen as ongoing activityStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  10. 10. ResultsStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  11. 11. Countries with Less than 5% National Expenditure on Agiculture 8.00 7.00 % of National Expenditure 6.00 2002 5.00 2003 2004 4.00 2005 3.00 2006 2007 2.00 1.00 0.00 d R R i bia l A on D e Ke ti e M ria s en me i ep go ra es on go o Le ya yc a Bu a C und r ou iu on ot , D th oi Se nd an tra ro be R To on ll ri t n am so Iv ji b Si h e Le go a w r au f. Li C w ts N a e Bo er C C C CountriesStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  12. 12. Figure: Countries with 5% to 10% National Expenditure on Agriculture 16 14 % National Expenditure 12 10 2003 2004 8 2005 6 2006 2007 4 2 0 P a ia ia d a n nd bi ha ni nd an er & m il a Be C ig ga T ri t Za az N au o U Sa Sw M CountriesStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  13. 13. % National Expenditure on Agriculture Figure: Countries with more than 10% National Expenditure on Agriculture 25.00 20.00 2002 2003 15.00 2004 2005 10.00 2006 2007 5.00 0.00 i ia r l r al i e ga ge aw ca op bw M ne Ni as al hi ba M Se ag Et m ad Zi M CountriesStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  14. 14. Figure: Public Spending on Agriculture in SADC Countries20.0018.0016.0014.0012.0010.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 R ia a s o i e nd a aw iu bi Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) D ib th w an ri t m il a m ab so o, al
  15. 15. Percentage of agriculture budgets in national budgets- Malawi 18 16 Percentage (%) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  16. 16. Pre and Post Maputo declaration Expenditure Agriculture Spending growth rates 250 200 Percentage (%) 150 100 50 0 Livestock/Crops Forestry % growth (1999/00-2003/04) % growth (2003/04-2006/07)Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  17. 17. Sub-sector contribution in total agriculture spending - Malawi 100 80 Percentage (%) 60 40 20 0 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 Fisheries Forestry Livestock & cropsStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  18. 18. Composition of Agricultural Spending: The Case of Zambia Example of Zambia’s 2005 Budget Infrastructure 2% Irrigation Development 3% Personnel Emoluments Food Security Pack & 20% EDRP 12% Food Reserve Agency Operational funds Maize Marketing 11% 15% Fertilizer Support Program 37%Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Source: ReSAKSS-SA, MACO (Zambia), MSU (Zambia) Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  19. 19. Kwacha Spent Per Rural Agricultural Household on EXTENSION Luapula Northern N ZMK 48,006 ZMK 47,369 North western ZMK 65,115 Copperbelt ZMK120,595 Eastern Central ZMK 35,170 ZMK 58,371 Lusaka Western ZMK129,528 Provincial Bounderies ZMK per Agric. HH ZMK 51,736 25000 - 50000 Southern 50000 - 75000 > 75000 ZMK122,720 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 KilometersStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  20. 20. Kwacha Spent Per Rural Agricultural Household on FORESTRY Luapula Northern N ZMK 4,526 ZMK 6,103 North western ZMK 9,160 Copperbelt ZMK 27,861 Eastern Central ZMK 4,818 ZMK 9,868 Lusaka Western ZMK 28,648 Provincial Bounderies ZMK per Agric. HH < 5,000 ZMK 5,373 5,000 - 10,000 Southern 10,000 - 15,000 > 15,000 ZMK 4,524 0 90 180 270 360 450 540 KilometersStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  21. 21. Kwacha Spent Per Rural Agricultural Household on RESETTLEMENT Luapula Northern N ZMK 1,855 ZMK 6,934 North western ZMK 7,390 Copperbelt ZMK 5,329 Eastern Central ZMK 1,790 ZMK 10,370 Lusaka Western ZMK 12,713 Provincial Bounderies ZMK per Agric. HH ZMK 5,670 < 5,000 Southern 5,000 - 10,000 10,000 - 15,000 ZMK 5,166 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 KilometersStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  22. 22. Kwacha Spent Per Rural Agricultural Household on FSP Luapula Northern N ZMK135,056 ZMK 66,588 North western ZMK 87,233 Copperbelt ZMK449,389 Eastern Central ZMK166,029 ZMK188,360 Lusaka Western ZMK505,809 Provincial Bounderies ZMK per Agric. HH < 100.000 ZMK 37,708 100,000 - 200,000 Southern 200,000 - 300,000 > 300,000 ZMK270,878 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 KilometersStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  23. 23. Kwacha Spent Per Rural Agricultural Household on FRA Luapula Northern N ZMK276,476 ZMK 77,951 North western ZMK126,999 Copperbelt ZMK196,297 Eastern Central ZMK353,198 ZMK480,058 Lusaka Western ZMK424,263 Provincial Bounderies ZMK per Agric. HH < 100.000 ZMK 27,735 100,000 - 200,000 Southern 200,000 - 300,000 > 300,000 ZMK449,810 0 90 180 270 360 450 540 KilometersStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  24. 24. TOTAL Kwacha Spent Per Rural Agricultural Household Luapula Northern N ZMK465,929 ZMK207,950 North western ZMK295,898 Copperbelt ZMK810,441 Eastern Central ZMK564,646 ZMK752,480 Lusaka Western ZMK1,103,398 Provincial Bounderies TOTAL ZMK per Agric. HH ZMK133,540 < 250,000 250,000 - 500,000 Southern 500,000 - 750,000 > 750,000 ZMK858,029 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 KilometersStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  25. 25. FSP Fertilizer in Kg/Ha of Maize Planted Luapula Northern N 110 Kg/ha 115 Kg/ha North western Copperbelt 54 Kg/ha 122 Kg/ha Eastern Central 54 Kg/ha 51 Kg/ha Lusaka Western 122 Kg/ha Provincial Bounderies Fertilizer (Kg/Ha of M aize Planted) < 25 Kg/ha 13 Kg/ha 25 - 50 Kg/ha Southern > 50 - 100 Kg/ha > 100 Kg/ha 47 Kg/ha 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 KilometersStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  26. 26. Incidence of Poverty Levels in 2006 Luapula Northern N 78 % 73 % North western 72 % Copperbelt 42 % Eastern Central 79 % 72 % Lusaka Western 29 % Provincial Bounderies % Poverty Levels < 50 % 84 % 50 - 75 % Southern > 75 - 80 % > 80 % 73 % 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 KilometersStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  27. 27. Percent (%) Change in the Incidence of Poverty Levels Between 1998 and 2006 Luapula Northern N -4 % -11 % North western Copperbelt -6 % -35 % Eastern Central 0% -6 % Lusaka Western -45 % Provincial Bounderies % Change in Poverty Levels > 30 % Decrease -6 % 10-30 % Decrease Southern 5- <10 % Decrease < 5 % Decrease No Change -3 % 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 KilometersStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  28. 28. ReSAKSS collaboration with World Bank –The case of Mozambique (1) • Research questions: – Are the levels and trends of public expenditure in agriculture conducive of the GoM meeting its strategic goals for the sector (incl. under PARPA)? Are they aligned with the priorities defined by the sector (strategic objectives, MTEF, PARPA, …)? – Based on the AU/NEPAD definition of agriculture, what is the overall share of agriculture in total public expenditures? How is Mozambique progressing towards its NEPAD commitments (Maputo Agreement)? – Is the spatial allocation of overall expenditure in agriculture aligned with sector strategic targets and objectives?Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  29. 29. ReSAKSS collaboration with World Bank –The case of Mozambique (2) • Research questions: – Has the funding in agriculture led to the expected growth in the sector and to rural poverty reduction? – Are the budget preparation process and institutional arrangements for the flow of funds conducive of timely a disbursement of public investment that takes seasonality of agriculture into account? – What is the nature of private investment in agriculture and what trends have evolved over the past years? – How does Mozambique compare with other countries in Africa on trends, levels, and quality of public spending in agriculture?Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
  30. 30. Potential areas for collaboration • Module 1 Core diagnostics; basic foundation • Module 2 Forward looking; MTEF • Module 3 Public expenditure tracking • Module 4 Sub-sector impact evaluation • Module 5 Core analysis – linking agriculture expenditure and agricultural growthStrategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)

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