Status of the LED industry


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Status of the LED industry

  1. 1. Status of the LED industryReport Details:Published:August 2012No. of Pages: 350Price: Single User License – US$5390Powered by General Lighting application, packaged LED market will experiencetremendous growth between 2012 and 2018 to reach $17.1B market sizeTHE LED INDUSTRY IS ENTERING ITS THIRD GROWTH CYCLE: GENERAL LIGHTINGGrowth of the LED industry has come initially from the small display application and has beendriven forward by the LCD display application. LED TV was expected to be the LED industry driverfor 2011 but the reality was quite different…. Lower adoption of LEDs in the TV market and theentry of several new players, mostly from Asia, created a climate of overcapacity, price pressureand strong competition. As a consequence, packaged LED volume was about 30% lower thanexpected and revenue shrank due to strong ASP pressure. In 2012, most companies have movedto the new “El Dorado” the of LED business: General Lighting, which represents the next killerapplication for LEDs. But enabling massive adoption of the technology for such an application stillrequires a large decrease in the cost of LED-based products.We estimate packaged LED revenue will reach a market size of $11.4B in 2012 and will peak to$17.1B by 2018. Growth will be driven both by the Display (LCD TV) and General Lightingapplications until massive adoption of LEDs in lighting. From 2014, the third growth cycle of theLED business will accelerate with the General Lighting application representing more than 50% ofthe overall packaged LED business.The report presents all applications of LEDs and associated market metrics within the period2008-2020, detailing for each application: drivers & challenges, associated volume and marketsize (packaged LED, LED die surface), penetration rate of LEDs…COST OF PACKAGED LEDs STILL NEEDS TO BE REDUCED BY A FACTOR X10 TOENABLE MASSIVE ADOPTION IN GENERAL LIGHTINGThe adoption of LEDs for General Lighting applications strongly depends on technology andmanufacturing improvements. This is required to drive performance and cost of LED solutions to atrigger point where massive adoption could start.Industry consensus points out a cost reduction per lumen of packaged LEDs by a factor x10. Thiscan be achieved through a combination of manufacturing efficiency and performanceimprovement, such as:•Access to larger size wafers;•Improvements in LED epitaxy cost of ownership through yield and throughput;
  2. 2. •Improved packaging technologies (phosphors, opticsAdditionally, improved package and luminaire design will also enable significant cost reduction(“design for manufacturability”).The report presents LED reduction opportunities, detailing: cost structure of packaged LEDs (andLED-based lighting products), key technologies and research areas…CHINA’s GaN MOCVD REACTOR CAPACITY HAS INCREASED BY A FACTOR X20 THELAST 3 YEARSThe capacity for GaN LED epitaxy has increased dramatically in 2010 and 2011. This increasetook place across all regions but was most dramatic in China (increased by a factor x20 of thereactor capacity between Q4 2009 and Q1 2012).Most emerging Chinese LED epiwafer and die manufacturers are still lagging significantly behindtheir competitors in term of technology maturity and LED performance. The bulk of those newcompanies are not yet capable of manufacturing LEDs to address the large display and generallighting applications that are currently driving the market. In the mid-term, consolidation of theChinese LED Industry will occur (scenario in the central government’s new five-year plan), andChina could became a major actor in the LED Industry.The report presents LED value chain, detailing: reactor capacity by region, with an analysis ofcapacity vs. demand, actors involved with a focus on leading LED epitaxy and packagingcompanies (2011 ranking by revenue)…NEW BUSINESS MODELS ARE MANDATORY TO CAPTURE ADDED VALUE OF LEDLIGHTINGUltimately, the long life of Solid State Lighting (SSL) technology will totally change the lightingmarket by dramatically increasing the length of the replacement cycles. The replacement market(aftermarket) will be strongly impacted, pushing traditional players of the lighting industry to definenew strategies to capture profit (intelligent lighting, lighting solutions…). In addition, as value ismoving to the top of the value chain (module and luminaire levels), several players that wereoriginally involved only at LED device levels will develop strategies of vertical integration in orderto capture more value. But accessing distribution channels represents a big challenge for thoseplayers who develop new approaches to sell their lighting products (e-commerce, newdistributors….). The rise of LED lighting will therefore depend on the right merger of the emergingLED industry with the traditional lighting industry.The report presents a deep analysis of the General Lighting application, detailing for each marketsegment: status & trends, drivers & challenges, regulations & standards, , market metrics… Ananalysis of geographical trends is also developed.COMPANY INDEXA-Bright, Advanced Photonics, American Bright, American Opto Plus, AOT, ApexScience &Engineering, APT Electronics, Aqualite Co, Arima, AUO, Avago, Bridgelux, Bright LED, Brightviewelectronic, CDT, Century Epitech, Chi Mei Lighting Technology, Citizen Electronics, CREE, CSBright, Daina, Dominant Semiconductors, Edison, Elec-tech, Enfis, Epiled, Epilight Technology,Epistar, EpiValley, Everlight, Excellence Opto, Fangda group, Formosa epitaxy (Forepi), galaxiaPhotonic, GE, Genesis Photonics, Golden Valley Optoelectronics, Hangzhou Silan Azure,Harvatech, HC SemiTek, Heesung, High Power Opto, hi-Light, hueyjann, huga, huiyuan
  3. 3. Optoelectronic, hunan HuaLei Optoelectronic, Hunin Electronic, Idemitsu Kosan, Illumitex,Invenlux, Itswell, KingBright, Kodenshi, Konica Minolta, Korea Photonics Technology Institute(KOPTI), Kwality group, Lattice Power Corporation, LedEngin, LEDTech, Lemnis,Lextar/Lighthouse, LG Display, Lg Innotek, Lighting Science, Ligitek, Lite-On, LongDeXin (LDX),Lumei Optoelectronics, Lumenmax, Lumex, Lumileds, LumiMicro, Lumination, Luminus, Lumitek,Lustrous Technology, Luxpia, LuxtalTek, MokSan Electronics, Moser Baer, Nanosys, Nanya,Nationstar, Neo-Neon, Nichia, NiNEX, Oasis, Optek Technology, Opto Tech, Osram, ParaLight,Philips, Power Opto, Powerlightec, Rainbow Optoelectronics, Rohm, Samsung SEMCO, SananOptoelectronics, Sanken Electric, Seiwa Electric, SemiLEDs, Seoul semi / Optodevice, Shandonghuaguang Optoelectronics, Sharp, Shenzen Mason Technology, Shenzen Mimgxue, ShenzenYiliu Electronic, Shenzhen Refond, Showa Denko, Stanley Electric, Sunpu Opto, Supernova,Sylvania, Tekcore, TESS, Tonghui Electronic Corporation, Toshiba, Toyoda gosei, TSMC, Tyntek,UDC, Unity Opto, Visera Tech, Vishay, VPEC, Walsin Lihwa, Wellipower, Wenrun Optoelectronic,Wooree LED, Xiamen Changelight, Xiamen Hualian, Ya Hsin, Yangzhou huaxia IntegratedPhotoelectric (DarewinChip), Yangzhou Zhongke Semiconductor, YoungTeck, Yuti LightingShanghai, Zoomview (Xi An Zoomlight)Get your copy of this report @ points covered in Table of Contents of this report includeTable of ContentsObjective of the ReportGlossaryExecutive SummaryPackaged LED forecastIntroduction to High Brightness LEDsSegmentation of High Brightness LED packagesLED market metricsPackaged LED Revenue forecastPackaged LED Volume forecastPackaged LED Die surface forecastLED Supply by RegionRecent TrendsPrice Trends of Packaged LEDsLeading LED Epitaxy Companies2011 Revenue RankingLeading LED Packaging Companies2011 Revenue RankingLED ReactorsCapacity AnalysisGeographic Trends & Impact on global demandCapacity vs. Demand
  4. 4. ConclusionDisplay applicationsIntroductionLarge size displays: LCD TVs and MonitorsHistory & TrendsMarket DriversEnergy RequirementsLED Backlighting Value ChainBacklight DesignsStandard Direct BacklightEdge Lit BacklightLow Cost Direct BacklightLED backlight color gamutLocal dimming with LED TVsBacklight Design TrendsPackage and Chip Surface TrendsAlternative TechnologiesCrystal LED (CLED)Quantum Dots LED (QLED)Organic led (OLED) - overviewLed adoption trendsPackaged LED revenue from lcd tvs and monitorsConclusionSmall size displays: cell phonesHistory & TrendsAlternative Technologies - Organic LED (OLED)Comparison with LEDMain PlayersNew 2012 DevicesPenetration Rate in cell phonePackaged LED revenue from cell phonesMedium size displays: notebooks & tabletsHistory & TrendsPenetration Rate of backlight TechnologiesPackaged LED Revenue from notebooks and tabletsOther display applicationsPersonal navigation device (PND)Portable DVDsDigital Cameras and CamcordersPortable Multimedia players (PMP)Portable Game ConsolePicture Frames
  5. 5. Portable Devices - The Blurred FrontierPackaged LED Revenue From “Other Displays”Sign and large display applicationsOverviewDetails on large outdoor displaysDetails on signals / emergency lightsPackaged LED Revenue From signs and large displaysProjector applicationsOverview of TechnologiesDetails on Table Top ProjectorsDetails on Ultra Portable and Pico ProjectorsAlternative Technology - laser-based projectorsLED penetration ratePackaged LED revenue from projectorsPersonal lighting applicationsOverviewPackaged LED revenue from personal lightingAutomotive lighting applicationsIntroductionHistory of LEDs integrationDrivers for LEDs integrationFocus on interior LightingFocus on exterior LightingChallengesTrends & potential impact on industry structureSales of Automotive and TrucksPenetration rate of LEDsPackaged LED revenue - split by applicationsConclusionGeneral lighting applications (1/6) - Lumen Consumption forecastIntroductionInternational energy agency (IEA) modelSandia national laboratory (SNL) modelModel developed in the reportGeneral lighting applications (2/6) - Driving forces, status and trendsIntroductionMarket segments & associated characteristicsOverview of light source technologiesStandard light bulb classifi cation2011 worldwide lighting use2011 worldwide lamp salesValue chain
  6. 6. OverviewAssociated players & trendsConclusionDrivers & challengesBenefits & promises of LEDsDrivers for adoptionupfront CostDrivers for adoption - Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)The Path to Cost ReductionCost Structure of Lighting ProductsLED Downlight Luminaire Cost BreakdownLED Outdoor area Lamp Cost BreakdownLED Replacement Lamp (bulb) Cost BreakdownLED Replacement Lamp Cost BreakdownAnalysisCost structure of packaged LEDCost breakdown of Cree Xlamp xb-dCost breakdown of Lumileds Luxeon SAnalysisCost reduction OpportunitiesThe Cost of YieldsKey Technologies & Research AreasMain Technical ChallengesLifetime & ReliabilityColor Rendering & ConsistencyRegulations & StandardsRegulationsBan / phase out of incandescent lampsCFL and ToxicityPotential Impact of SubsidiesStandardsWorldwide TrendsModule Standardization (zhaga)Future TrendsIntelligent Lighting / Lighting solutionLow Voltage DC Power - Focus on the emerge allianceAlternative TechnologiesPlasma Induction LightingLaser LightingOled LightingConclusionConclusion
  7. 7. General lighting applications (3/6) - Design trendsChip on Board (COB)Middle Power LEDsLight EnginesSmall vs. Large chipsBulb and Tubes replacement vs. Dedicated SSL modulesDesign ConsiderationsExamplesConclusionGeneral lighting applications (4/6) -Market segment reviewResidential lightingGeneral DescriptionIncumbent TechnologiesLamp Replacement vs. Dedicated ssl modulesLEDs Integration - Drivers & StoppersAdoption TrendsSWOT AnalysisLED Penetration TrendsCommercial lightingGeneral DescriptionIncumbent TechnologiesDedicated SSL modulesLEDs integration - Drivers & StoppersFocus on Office LightingFocus on High End ApplicationsFocus on Specialty ApplicationsSWOT AnalysisLED Penetration TrendsIndustrial LightingGeneral DescriptionIncumbent TechnologiesFocus on agricultural applicationsSWOT analysisLED penetration trendsOutdoor Stationary LightingGeneral descriptionIncumbent technologiesLEDs integration - drivers & stoppersSWOT analysisLED penetration trendsConclusion
  8. 8. General Lighting Applications (5/6) -Lamp market forecastWorldwide trendsAnnual sales of lamps in the world (volume)Split by TechnologySplit by RegionAnnual sales of Lamps in the world (m$)Split by TechnologySplit by RegionGeographical TrendsAnnual sales of lamps in EuropeAnnual sales of lamps in North AmericaAnnual sales of lamps in AsiaAnnual sales of lamps in South AmericaAnnual sales of lamps in MEAGeneral Lighting Applications (6/6) -ConclusionFinal conclusionContact: for more information.