Various Media Citations - Ryan Renicker, CFA

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Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA

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Various Media Citations - Ryan Renicker, CFA

  1. 1. Stock Sell-Off Causes VIX To Spike 5UPDATE 1-Volatility index soars as US investors seek safety 6Ticonderoga Securities; Ticonderoga Securities Further Expands Equity Derivatives Group with Four New Hires 8Ticonderoga Securities Further Expands Equity Derivatives Group with Four New... 9Option players brace for volatility on Exxon results 10Ticonderoga Snags Four From Newedge 12CRWENews Highlights: Ticonderoga Securities Further Expands Equity Derivatives Group with Four New Hires 13Ticonderoga Bulks Up Equity Desk 15Intel Outlook Spurs Chip Activity --- Bulls Place Their Bets on Advanced Micro Devices, SanDisk and Nvidia and 16OPTIONS REPORT: Intel Forecasts Power Trades in Chip Sector 18Intel Outlook Spurs Chip Activity; Bulls Place Their Bets on Advanced Micro Devices, SanDisk and Nvidia and 20The Best Analysts of the Year 22Ahead of Nvidias Profit Report, Volatility Expectations Climb 56OPTIONS REPORT: Volatility Views Rise In Nvidia Options 57Trading in Symantec Takes Off 58OPTIONS REPORT:Symantec, Boston Sci. Busy Before Earnings 59Dollars Drop May Move Stocks 60OPTIONS REPORT: Dollars Drop May Move Some Stocks 61Options --- The Striking Price: Messy Manana for Miners 63Barrons(5/29) The Striking Price: Messy Manana For Miners 65Ahead of the Tape 67HURRICANE OUTLOOK GENERATES AN ADVISORY FOR P&C INSURERS 69OPTIONS BEAT-Hurricane headwinds could stir up insurers 70Hurricane Outlook Generates An Advisory for P&C Insurers 72
  2. 2. UPDATE: OPTIONS REPORT: A Hurricane Season Related Trade 73OPTIONS REPORT: Hurricane Season-Related Opportunities 75Options --- The Striking Price: Oil, Oil Everywhere 77Barrons(5/1) The Striking Price: Oil, Oil Everywhere 79Sleepy Outlook for Chip Stocks Might Offer Opportunity in ETF 81OPTIONS REPORT: Chipmakers Could See Volatility Ahead 82CBOE to Start Trading Options On Volatility Index Next Month 83OPTIONS REPORT: CBOE To Trade Options On VIX In Feb. 84Newmont Shines on Golds Rise 85WSJ(12/9) Options Report: Newmont Shines On Golds Rise Thu 86= OPTIONS REPORT: Newmont Mining Active As Gold Gains 87OPTIONS REPORT: Newmont Mining Active As Gold Gains 88Options --- The Striking Price: Better Covered Calls 89Options --- The Striking Price: Good Bye, Wild Child? 91OPTIONS REPORT: Fifth Third Options Busy Amid M&A Rumors 93OPTIONS REPORT: Albertsons Volatility Expected To Rise 94Google Volatility Is Pushed Higher Ahead of Earnings 96Options Report: Traders Gird For Google 97Options --- The Striking Price: London Shock Fails To Jolt Volatility 98Barrons(7/11) Market Week -- Options The Striking Price: No Fear: Bombs Fail To Raise Vix 100AMR Isnt Following Oils Lead 102Options Report: AMR Volatility Low Despite Record Oil 103Options --- The Striking Price: Ringing Up Verizon Calls --- By Kopin Tan 104Options Report: Risk Worry Approaches Two-Month Low 106Options --- The Striking Price: Options Forecast Somnolent Stocks 107Options --- The Striking Price -- Flat-Lined Forever? Low VIX raises questions about its meaning 109Options --- The Striking Price -- Steady as Gold: XAUs implied volatility lowest in four years 111
  3. 3. DJ MARKET WEEK -- Options --- The Striking Price -- Steady as Gold: XAUs implied volatility lowest 113DJ Barrons(2/7) Steady As Gold: Xaus Implied Volatility Lowest In Four Years 114Options --- The Striking Price -- Buck Up, Stock Owners: A strategy for retaking lost ground 115Trading Is Mixed Amid Doubt, As Metals, Mines Get Defensive 117DJ WSJ(10/19) Options Report: Metals, Mines Get Defensive 118DJ Options Report: Trading Defensive in Industrials, Metals 119Options Report: Trading Defensive in Industrials, Metals 120Options --- The Striking Price -- Adding Some Fizz: Options can boost returns on Coke and Pepsi 122DJ Barrons(10/11) The Striking Price: Adding Some Fizz: Options Can Boost Returns On Coke And Pepsi 124Options Report: Trading Guarded, Some See Capped Upside 126Options --- The Striking Price -- Surviving a Thin Harvest: Premium seekers might pluck Apple, or Kodak 128Warnings Can Be Opportunities 130Options Report: Profit Warnings Spur Trades; VIX Rises 131Traders Focus More on the Risks Of Specific Stocks Than on Indexes 133Options --- The Striking Price -- Calls of the Mild: Options stay in the summer doldrums 134Options Report: Traders Turn To Stock-Specific Risks 136Options Report: Traders Turn To Stock-Specific Risks 138Options --- The Striking Price -- Oil Ennui: Crude prices soar, but oil stock options trade fitfully 140As Dow Industrials Change, A Surprise Might Ensue --- Shares Dumped From Key Index Today Stand Chance to Outpace Their Replacements, Trend... 142IPO Outlook: Market Finds Itself A Victim Of Success 144IPO Outlook: Hefty Price Tag May Accompany Growth in IPOs --- Increase in Share Offerings Might Contribute to Dips In Overall Stock Market 146Ahead of the Tape 148Microsofts Bulletin: Software giants move sets traders scrambling 149Cruising in Convertibles: For many, theyre the vehicle of choice 151Retailing, Software Poised For M&A Activity -CSFB Study 153
  4. 4. Ahead of the Tape 154Building Your Portfolio 155Rediscovering Taxes: Investors feel their impact more in the face of declining returns 157Another Gunslinger Gone: John Muresianu retires as his famed Fidelity Fiftys outperformance seems most outstanding 162Investors get new tool to make decisions 167Letters to the Editor - All victims of tragedy 169
  5. 5. Stock Sell-Off Causes VIX To SpikeStock Sell-Off Causes VIX To Spike91 words5 February 2010Derivatives WeekDERWEnglishCopyright 2010 Euromoney Institutional Investor plc.The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index jumped 21% to 26.08% Thursday after the worst sell-off in U.S. stocks since last May. “Investors are clamoring for protection,” according to Ryan Renicker, anequity derivatives strategist at broker-dealer Ticonderoga Securities. Renicker added that risks associatedwith sovereign debt contributed to investors’ desire to hedge their stock positions by buying put options onthe S&P500 and VIX call options.Click here to read the story from ReutersDocument DERW000020100223e6250000aPage 5 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  6. 6. UPDATE 1-Volatility index soars as US investors seek safetyUPDATE 1-Volatility index soars as US investors seek safety642 words4 February 201017:10Reuters NewsLBAEnglish(c) 2010 Reuters Limited* S&P 500 historical volatility rising* VIX futures trade in 25 range for 2010* Traders seek ETF put options as likely protection (Recasts lead, Adds details on ETF option volume inparagraph l3)By Doris FrankelCHICAGO, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Volatility has vaulted out of its slumber.The worst sell-off in U.S. stocks in more than nine months on Thursday sent Wall Streets favorite measureof investor anxiety, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index <.VIX>, sharply higher as investorsscrambled to buy portfolio protection.The index, known as the VIX, jumped nearly 21 percent to 26.08 as U.S. stocks sank amid persistent fearsover European sovereign debt problems and an unexpected increase in U.S. jobless claims a day ahead ofcrucial payrolls data."Investors are clamoring for protection," said Ryan Renicker, equity derivatives strategist at broker-dealerTiconderoga Securities."The risks associated with sovereign debt and the uncertainty coming into Fridays jobs report haveprompted investors to hedge their stock positions by buying put options on the S&P 500 and VIX calloptions."Since topping out at a 28 reading on Jan. 22, the VIX had been trending lower over the past two weeks. Butit reversed course violently on Thursday, indicating expectations for future daily moves of 1.5 percent in theS&P 500.The VIX is a 30-day risk forecast priced off of Standard & Poors index <.SPX> option prices and oftenmoves higher when the S&P benchmark falls sharply as investors bid up options to manage their stockmarket risk.Investors are concerned that stocks will keep falling in the near term. "Even in the exchange-traded fundsthat track major stock benchmarks and sectors, investors are aggressively buying insurance," saidoptionMonster analyst Chris McKhann.Another big driver is the actual volatility in the market, which has been rising. S&P 500 historical volatilityover the past 22 trading days stood at 18.71 percent up from 16.5 percent the previous day, Renicker said.Over the last 16 trading days, the S&P 500 has moved more than 1 percent on 10 of those days, accordingto Bespoke Investment Group, an investment firm in Harrison, New York.VIX futures are trading in the 25 range, also suggesting that traders are looking for wider stock marketswings at least for the next six months, McKhann said.BUSY ACTION IN ETF PUTSMany traders expecting downside movement turned to exchange-traded funds tracking the majorPage 6 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  7. 7. benchmarks and sectors to hedge risk.In the ETFs, about 3.40 million puts and 2.19 million calls traded, or 130 percent the recent average dailyturnover. By contrast 609,000 puts and 559,000 calls changed hands across all the cash indexes, whichrepresents approximate typical levels, according to option analytics firm Trade Alert.The action shows that increasing numbers of investors are turning to ETF puts rather than index puts whenhedging bets on volatility days, said WhatsTrading.com options strategist Fred Ruffy.Volume leaders were the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust , Powershares QQQ Trust Series 1 fund , the iSharesRussell 2000 Index , the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index . and the Select Sector SPDR Financialfund .Put-to-call ratios in the QQQQs, IWM, XLF and EEM are twice their recent average, said McKhann.Some traders have already employed their hedging and risk strategies. Options bets initiated last month inseveral ETFS suggested traders were positioning for a substantial pullback in the consumer, basic materials,banks and retail sectors by March expiration. For details, please see [nN22145195]. (Editing by Diane Craftand Leslie Adler)VIX-VOLATILITY/PROTECTION (UPDATE 1)|LANGEN|ABN|D|E|RBN|M|U|RNP|DNPDocument LBA0000020100204e624001z0Page 7 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  8. 8. Ticonderoga Securities; Ticonderoga Securities Further Expands Equity Derivatives Group with Four New HiresTiconderoga Securities; Ticonderoga Securities Further Expands Equity Derivatives Group with FourNew Hires358 words30 January 2010Marketing Weekly NewsMRKWN148English© Copyright 2010 Marketing Weekly News via NewsRx.com2010 JAN 30 - (VerticalNews.com) -- Ticonderoga Securities, an institutional broker dealer, announced theexpansion of its Equity Derivatives Group with the addition of four new hires. John Martin, former Head ofListed Equity Derivatives at Newedge, will run the marketing effort for the firms listed options and OTCproducts.Joining Martin in this effort are Ernest Brooks, Matthew McNulty and Ryan Renicker, all also formerly ofNewedge. This expansion is the first step in the firms effort to fully build out its equity derivatives platform,launched in November by Vuk Bulajic, Head of Equity Derivatives for Ticonderoga."It is important to recognize and adjust to the ongoing changes in the market environment. With the additionof John and his team, Ticonderoga will be positioned to better serve clients specific needs," said Bulajic.With the expansion of the Equity Derivatives Group, Ticonderoga continues to position itself as a leadingbroker dealer, concentrating on domestic and international equities with a focus on high-quality orderexecution alongside its differentiated research. Martin and his team will further diversify Ticonderogasproduct offerings by focusing on market intelligence and idea generation, incorporating strategies on bothcash and derivatives to create a more comprehensive product for a diversified customer base.Said Martin, "We are looking forward to the enormous opportunities the expanded group will present. We willbe able to occupy a unique presence in the market by exploiting synergies and optimizing our expertiseacross all equity products at Ticonderoga."Prior to Ticonderoga, Brooks served as a VP of Equity Derivatives at Newedge for four years. McNulty alsoserved as a VP of Equity Derivatives at Newedge after six years on the American Stock Exchange, where hestarted his career. Renicker joins Ticonderoga after serving as the Derivatives Strategist at Newedge. Beforethat he was Head of US Equity Option Strategy at Lehman Brothers and has been with three top-rankedteams in Equity Derivatives research.This article was prepared by Marketing Weekly News editors from staff and other reports. Copyright 2010,Marketing Weekly News via VerticalNews.com.Document MRKWN00020100122e61u0004aPage 8 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  9. 9. Ticonderoga Securities Further Expands Equity Derivatives Group with Four New...Ticonderoga Securities Further Expands Equity Derivatives Group with Four New Hires; New team tohelp grow firms set of offerings473 words11 January 201009:47PR Newswire (U.S.)PRNEnglishCopyright © 2010 PR Newswire Association LLC. All Rights Reserved.NEW YORK, Jan. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Ticonderoga Securities, an institutional broker dealer, todayannounced the expansion of its Equity Derivatives Group with the addition of four new hires. John Martin,former Head of Listed Equity Derivatives at Newedge, will run the marketing effort for the firms listed optionsand OTC products.Joining Martin in this effort are Ernest Brooks, Matthew McNulty and Ryan Renicker, all also formerly ofNewedge. This expansion is the first step in the firms effort to fully build out its equity derivatives platform,launched in November by Vuk Bulajic, Head of Equity Derivatives for Ticonderoga."It is important to recognize and adjust to the ongoing changes in the market environment. With the additionof John and his team, Ticonderoga will be positioned to better serve clients specific needs," said Bulajic.With the expansion of the Equity Derivatives Group, Ticonderoga continues to position itself as a leadingbroker dealer, concentrating on domestic and international equities with a focus on high-quality orderexecution alongside its differentiated research. Martin and his team will further diversify Ticonderogasproduct offerings by focusing on market intelligence and idea generation, incorporating strategies on bothcash and derivatives to create a more comprehensive product for a diversified customer base.Said Martin, "We are looking forward to the enormous opportunities the expanded group will present. We willbe able to occupy a unique presence in the market by exploiting synergies and optimizing our expertiseacross all equity products at Ticonderoga."Prior to Ticonderoga, Brooks served as a VP of Equity Derivatives at Newedge for four years. McNulty alsoserved as a VP of Equity Derivatives at Newedge after six years on the American Stock Exchange, where hestarted his career. Renicker joins Ticonderoga after serving as the Derivatives Strategist at Newedge. Beforethat he was Head of US Equity Option Strategy at Lehman Brothers and has been with three top-rankedteams in Equity Derivatives research.About Ticonderoga SecuritiesIn May 2009, Ticonderoga Securities LLC acquired Reynders, Gray & Co. Inc. a respected firm with morethan 30-years experience and an enviable track record. Ticonderoga Securities operates a dual capabilitywith a New York Stock Exchange floor based team providing direct access as well as the desk basedmodels. The firm concentrates on domestic and international equities and focuses on high quality, conflictfree order execution, as well as a differentiated research offering to support its first class executioncapabilities.SOURCE Ticonderoga Securities201001110947PR_NEWS_USPR_____NY35337.xmlDocument PRN0000020100111e61b004jyPage 9 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  10. 10. Option players brace for volatility on Exxon resultsOption players brace for volatility on Exxon results599 words29 January 201017:21Reuters NewsLBAEnglish(c) 2010 Reuters Limited*Exxon option projected volatility rises into earnings*Exxon shares briefly notch 10-month lows*Exxon breaks key support at $64.46 a shareBy Doris FrankelCHICAGO, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Option activity in Exxon Mobil Corp picked up on Friday as investors brace forpotential share price movement after the oil company reports quarterly results on Monday.Exxon Mobil shares briefly touched lows not hit since March 2009 after earnings from Chevron Corp whichmissed Wall Street expectations. For details, please see [nN29120138].In the options market, about 90,000 calls changed hands in Exxon, double their average daily volume andmore than three times the number of put options."We are seeing signs from the options market that risk expectations for Exxon Mobil are relatively highahead of next weeks earnings report," said Ryan Renicker, equity derivatives strategist at TiconderogaSecurities, an institutional broker-dealer in New York.Option implied volatility, a key component of an options price, measures the expected magnitude of shareprice movement and often moves up ahead of an event such as earnings that could potentially jolt the stock."The stocks average implied volatility is up two percent to 25 percent as investors look for potential volatilityaround the earnings release," said WhatsTrading.com option strategist Frederic Ruffy.Exxons at-the-money option implied volatility stood at 21 percent compared to historical volatility of 13.4percent on the stock over the past 22 trading days, Renicker said.In a research note on Friday, Renicker recommended that investors should consider a covered call strategyto cushion their existing positions heading into the earnings report after Chevron reported a decline inquarterly profits.Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, on Friday posted a 37 percent drop in quarterly profit asrefining margins have suffered with pricier oil lifting costs even as the weak economy has shrunk fueldemand."I believe these same factors could weigh on Exxon when the company reports next week," Renicker said.Wall Street analysts expect Exxon Mobil to report a profit of $1.19 per share, according to Thomson ReutersI/B/E/S.Exxon shares fell 53 cents to $64.43 on the New York Stock Exchange."Traders looking at technical levels would consider Exxon shares to be vulnerable if they break key supportat $64.46 a level established on July 13, 2009," Renicker said.Renicker suggests that investors hedge their long exposure to Exxon by selling near-term February $65 callstrikes for a premium of about $1.08 in a so-called overwrite, a strategy that combines stock ownership andPage 10 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  11. 11. options trading."These calls are trading relatively rich when compared to Exxons shares recent historical volatility," he said.The strategy would allow investors a partial hedge against a downside move in Exxon shares while at thesame time giving them upside exposure up to $66.08 -- the break-even point of the call trade as of Feb. 20expiration."There has been quite bit of sellers of the Feb $65 calls today," said TD Ameritrade chief derivativesstrategist Joe Kinahan.There are two reasons for it, he said. The earnings are next week and Exxon is due to go ex-dividend on Feb8, "which if you are long the stock would be a nice addition to that return as well as premium received fromthe call sale."(Reporting by Doris Frankel; Editing by Diane Craft)EXXON-EARNINGS/HEDGE|LANGEN|ABN|E|RBN|U|O|OIL|RNP|DNP|PCO|PENDocument LBA0000020100129e61t002a2Page 11 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  12. 12. Ticonderoga Snags Four From NewedgeTiconderoga Snags Four From Newedge107 words15 January 2010Wall Street LetterWLETEnglish© 2010 Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC.Ticonderoga Securities has added four staffers to its equity derivatives group, all from Newedge, in an effortto further position itself. John Martin, formerly head of listed equity derivatives at Newedge, has joined thefirm to run marketing for its listed options and over-the-counter derivatives offerings. Ernest Brooks andMatthew McNulty, both formerly v.p.s for equity derivatives at Newedge, will support Martin. RyanRenicker, who will also work on marketing for the listed options and OTC contracts, was formerly thederivatives strategist at Newedge and before that the head of U.S. equity option strategy at LehmanBrothers.Document WLET000020100202e61f00009Page 12 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  13. 13. CRWENews Highlights: Ticonderoga Securities Further Expands Equity Derivatives Group with Four New HiresCRWENews Highlights: Ticonderoga Securities Further Expands Equity Derivatives Group with FourNew Hires777 words11 January 2010M2 PresswireMTPWEnglish© 2010, M2 Communications. All rights reserved.Las Vegas CRWENews.com is pleased to announce a stock highlight on Ticonderoga Securities, aninstitutional broker dealer, today announced the expansion of its Equity Derivatives Group with the additionof four new hires. John Martin, former Head of Listed Equity Derivatives at Newedge, will run the marketingeffort for the firms listed options and OTC products.Joining Martin in this effort are Ernest Brooks, Matthew McNulty and Ryan Renicker, all also formerly ofNewedge. This expansion is the first step in the firms effort to fully build out its equity derivatives platform,launched in November by Vuk Bulajic, Head of Equity Derivatives for Ticonderoga."It is important to recognize and adjust to the ongoing changes in the market environment. With the additionof John and his team, Ticonderoga will be positioned to better serve clients specific needs," said Bulajic.With the expansion of the Equity Derivatives Group, Ticonderoga continues to position itself as a leadingbroker dealer, concentrating on domestic and international equities with a focus on high-quality orderexecution alongside its differentiated research. Martin and his team will further diversify Ticonderogasproduct offerings by focusing on market intelligence and idea generation, incorporating strategies on bothcash and derivatives to create a more comprehensive product for a diversified customer base.Said Martin, "We are looking forward to the enormous opportunities the expanded group will present. We willbe able to occupy a unique presence in the market by exploiting synergies and optimizing our expertiseacross all equity products at Ticonderoga." Prior to Ticonderoga, Brooks served as a VP of EquityDerivatives at Newedge for four years. McNulty also served as a VP of Equity Derivatives at Newedge aftersix years on the American Stock Exchange, where he started his career. Renicker joins Ticonderoga afterserving as the Derivatives Strategist at Newedge. Before that he was Head of US Equity Option Strategy atLehman Brothers and has been with three top-ranked teams in Equity Derivatives research.About Ticonderoga Securities In May 2009, Ticonderoga Securities LLC acquired Reynders, Gray & Co. Inc.a respected firm with more than 30-years experience and an enviable track record. Ticonderoga Securitiesoperates a dual capability with a New York Stock Exchange floor based team providing direct access as wellas the desk based models. The firm concentrates on domestic and international equities and focuses onhigh quality, conflict free order execution, as well as a differentiated research offering to support its first classexecution capabilities.Sign up to receive FREE Stock-PR alerts from CRWENewswire.com at http://www.crwenewswire.com/About CRWENews.comCRWENews.com is an independent electronic informative online financial news publication companydedicated in providing company associates, business and financial professionals with economic andinvestment information, as well as stock highlights. CRWENews.com is a division of Crown Equity Holdings,Inc.CRWENews.com is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. CRWENews.com and CrownEquity Holdings, Inc., (CRWE) affiliates, officers, directors, contractors and employees, including may buyand sell additional shares in any company mentioned herein and may profit in the event those shares rise invalue. Please do your own Due Diligence before investing in any of the stocks mentioned above.We encourage investors to join and receive CRWENews.com FREE e-mail news and stock watch alerts athttp://www.crwenewswire.com/ and view our full disclaimer.Forward-Looking Statement: This release may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning ofSection 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act ofPage 13 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  14. 14. 1934, as amended. All forward-looking statements and/or Safe Harbor Statement under the PrivateSecurities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 are inherently uncertain as they are based on current expectationsand assumptions concerning future events or future performance of the company. Readers are cautionednot to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which are only predictions and speak onlyas of the date hereof. Risks and uncertainties applicable to the company and its business could cause thecompanys actual results to differ materially from those indicated in any forward-looking statements.M2 Communications disclaims all liability for information provided within M2 PressWIRE. Data prepared bynamed party/parties. Further information on M2 PressWIRE can be obtained at http://www.presswire.net onthe world wide web. Inquiries to info@m2.com.Document MTPW000020100111e61b0053jPage 14 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  15. 15. Ticonderoga Bulks Up Equity DeskTiconderoga Bulks Up Equity Desk126 words8 January 2010Derivatives WeekDERWEnglishCopyright 2010 Euromoney Institutional Investor plc.--Zeke FauxInstitutional broker-dealer Ticonderoga Securities has hired four Newedge staffers, including John Martin,the former head of listed equity derivatives, for its new equity derivatives desk.Martin, who started last week, heads sales for over-the-counter and listed options. Ticonderoga has beenexpanding since hiring Vuk Bulajic, the former head of equity derivatives at Natixis, in November (DW, 11/2).Bulajic confirmed the hires and told Derivatives Week that he is looking to add more equity derivativestraders and salespeople.The other hires from Newedge are Ernest Brooks, v.p., Matthew McNulty, v.p., and Ryan Renicker,derivatives strategist. Prior to joining Newedge last year, Renicker was head of equity option strategy atLehman Brothers.Document DERW000020100126e6180000jPage 15 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  16. 16. Intel Outlook Spurs Chip Activity --- Bulls Place Their Bets on Advanced Micro Devices, SanDisk and Nvidia andOptions ReportIntel Outlook Spurs Chip Activity --- Bulls Place Their Bets on Advanced Micro Devices, SanDisk andNvidia andBy Tennille Tracy637 words31 August 2009The Wall Street JournalJC9English(Copyright (c) 2009, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)NEW YORK -- The options market played host to robust activity in chip makers on Friday after Intel raised itsforecast on third-quarter sales and Marvell Technology Group reported quarterly results that beatexpectations.With a string of upbeat news coming out of the sector, chip stocks enjoyed some gains and options tradersemerged to speculate on future moves.Among the companies that attracted bullish attention was Advanced Micro Devices. Trading in theSunnyvale, Calif., company jumped to seven times the normal level, with investors picking up 61,000 callsthat allow them to buy the companys stock and 27,000 puts that allow them to sell it, according to TradeAlert.A bulk of the action took place in September $5 calls and October $5 calls. The latter are priced at 25 centsand show a profit if Advanced Micros stock climbs above $5.25 before mid-October -- about 17% above theFriday close of $4.47, up 5.7% on the New York Stock Exchange.Similar activity took place in SanDisk and Nvidia.In SanDisk, traders gravitated toward October calls that convey the right to buy the Milpitas, Calif.,companys stock for $19. Priced at $1, the contracts show a profit if SanDisk rises above $20. It closed at18.03 Friday, up 1.7% on the Naqsdaq Stock Market.In Nvidia, whose stock hit a 52-week high on Friday, traders focused on September $15 calls. Some traders,however, appeared to be selling long-dated calls in what could have been part of "covered call" strategies. Ifthat was the case, traders who owned shares in Nvidia sold January $20 calls that expire in 2011. Thetraders collected about $1.75 by selling the calls, establishing positions that work best if the Santa Clara,Calif., companys shares rise to $21.75 in the next several months but not above that point.Nvidias stock ended Friday at $14.73, up 5.1% on the Nasdaq.Meanwhile, in the Semiconductor Holdrs Trust, an exchange-traded fund that tracks several chip stocks, onetrader elected to "roll out" a short position in the funds put options.Anticipating stability in the ETFs shares, this trader bought September $25 puts that had been sold inprevious sessions, thereby closing a short position in those contracts, and then sold longer-dated October$26 puts. The latter contracts generate $1.30 in premiums, so the position shows a profit as long as thesemiconductor fund stays above $24.70. It closed Friday at $25.69, up 1.9%.Fueling at least some of the days action was Intel, which surprised investors by raising its third-quarterrevenue forecast to $9 billion, citing stronger-than-expected demand for its microprocessors.The trading also followed Marvells second-quarter results, which topped estimates, and a better-than-expected third-quarter outlook.Still, some options strategists say it could be time to unwind out of chip stocks, particularly those that haverallied near their 52-week highs or even surpassed them, and to buy call options in the companies instead.This so-called stock-replacement strategy enables investors to lock in recent advances in the stocks, whilemaintaining exposure to future upside moves.Page 16 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  17. 17. "The implied volatility has declined in line with this strong performance, so you can take advantage of thisenvironment and sell the shares while still having exposure to the upside by buying calls," said RyanRenicker, derivatives strategist with Newedge USA.Among the companies that Mr. Renicker highlighted as potential candidates of the stock replacementstrategy are Marvell, Nvidia, Texas Instruments and Broadcom.License this article from Dow Jones Reprint ServiceDocument J000000020090831e58v00006Page 17 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  18. 18. OPTIONS REPORT: Intel Forecasts Power Trades in Chip SectorOPTIONS REPORT: Intel Forecasts Power Trades in Chip SectorBy Tennille TracyOf DOW JONES NEWSWIRES718 words28 August 200915:30Dow Jones News ServiceDJEnglish(c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The options market played host to robust activity in semiconductor companiesFriday, after Intel Corp. raised its forecast on third-quarter sales and Marvell Technology Group Ltd. beatexpectations with its most recent quarterly report.With a string of upbeat news coming out of the sector, chip stocks enjoyed some gains and options tradersemerged to speculate on future moves.Among the companies that attracted some bullish attention was Advanced Micro Devices Inc. Trading in theCalifornia-based company jumped to six times the normal level, with investors picking up 58,000 calls thatallow them to buy the companys stock and 22,000 puts that allow them to sell it, according to Trade Alert.A bulk of the action took place in October $5 calls as well as longer-dated January $5 calls. The formercontracts are priced at 25 cents and make money if Advanced Micros stock climbs above $5.25 before mid-October - about 17% above the recent price of $4.48, up 5.9%.Similar activity took place in SanDisk Corp. and Nvidia Corp.In SanDisk, traders gravitated toward October calls that convey the right to buy the stock for $19. Priced at$1, the contracts make money if SanDisk shares rise above $20. They recently traded for $18.11, gaining2.1%.In Nvidia, whose stock hit a new 52-week high on Friday, traders focused on September $15 calls. Thosecontracts are priced at 45 cents and make money if Nvidia shares jump above $15.45 before Sept. 18. Theyrecently traded for $14.77, up 5.4%, after retreating somewhat from a year-long high at $15.03.Other traders, meanwhile, appeared to be selling long-dated calls in Nvidia in what probably qualified as"covered call" strategies. If that were the case, traders who own shares in Nvidia sold batches of January$20 calls that expire in 2011. They collected $1.75 by doing so, establishing positions that work best if Nvidiarises to $21.75 but not above that point.Meanwhile, in the Semiconductor HOLDRS Trust, an exchange-traded fund that tracks several chip stocks,one trader elected to "roll out" a short position in the funds put options.Anticipating stability in the ETFs shares, this trader bought September $25 puts that the trader had formerlysold, and then sold October $26 puts. The latter contracts generate premiums worth $1.30 and stand tomake money as long as the semiconductor fund stays above $24.70.The fund recently traded for $25.75, up 2.2%.Fueling at least some of the days action was Intel, which surprised some Wall Street analysts by raising itsthird-quarter revenue forecast to $9 billion, citing stronger-than-expected demand for its microprocessors.The trading also followed Marvells second-quarter results, which topped estimates, and better-than-expected third-quarter outlooks.Interestingly, some options strategists say it could be time to unwind out of chip stocks, particularly thosethat have rallied near their 52-week high points or even surpassed them, and to buy call options in thecompanies instead.This so-called stock-replacement strategy allows investors to lock in recent gains in the stocks, whilePage 18 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  19. 19. maintaining exposure to future upside moves."The implied volatility has declined in line with this strong performance, so you can take advantage of thisenvironment and sell the shares while still having exposure to upside by buying calls," said Ryan Renicker,derivatives strategist with Newedge USA.Among the companies that Renicker highlighted as potential candidates of the stock replacement strategyare Marvell, Nvidia, Texas Instruments Inc. and Broadcom Corp.Back in the options market, there was also noteworthy trading in Novellus Systems Inc., but the activityappeared to reflect more mixed expectations for the stock.Traders picked up 7,000 calls and 6,000 puts in the California company, showing interest in both September$20 calls and September $17.50 puts. That companys stock recently traded for $19.57, up 3.4%.-By Tennille Tracy, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2183; tennille.tracy@dowjones.com(Jerry A. DiColo contributed to this report.) [ 08-28-09 1530ET ]70699Document DJ00000020090828e58s000ewPage 19 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  20. 20. Intel Outlook Spurs Chip Activity; Bulls Place Their Bets on Advanced Micro Devices, SanDisk and Nvidia andMarketsIntel Outlook Spurs Chip Activity; Bulls Place Their Bets on Advanced Micro Devices, SanDisk andNvidia andBy Tennille Tracy638 words31 August 2009The Wall Street Journal (Online and Print)WSJOMarkets; C9EnglishCopyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.NEW YORK -- The options market played host to robust activity in chip makers on Friday after Intel raised itsforecast on third-quarter sales and Marvell Technology Group reported quarterly results that beatexpectations.With a string of upbeat news coming out of the sector, chip stocks enjoyed some gains and options tradersemerged to speculate on future moves.Among the companies that attracted bullish attention was Advanced Micro Devices. Trading in theSunnyvale, Calif., company jumped to seven times the normal level, with investors picking up 61,000 callsthat allow them to buy the companys stock and 27,000 puts that allow them to sell it, according to TradeAlert.A bulk of the action took place in September $5 calls and October $5 calls. The latter are priced at 25 centsand show a profit if Advanced Micros stock climbs above $5.25 before mid-October -- about 17% above theFriday close of $4.47, up 5.7% on the New York Stock Exchange.Similar activity took place in SanDisk and Nvidia.In SanDisk, traders gravitated toward October calls that convey the right to buy the Milpitas, Calif.,companys stock for $19. Priced at $1, the contracts show a profit if SanDisk rises above $20. It closed at18.03 Friday, up 1.7% on the Naqsdaq Stock Market.In Nvidia, whose stock hit a 52-week high on Friday, traders focused on September $15 calls. Some traders,however, appeared to be selling long-dated calls in what could have been part of "covered call" strategies. Ifthat was the case, traders who owned shares in Nvidia sold January $20 calls that expire in 2011. Thetraders collected about $1.75 by selling the calls, establishing positions that work best if the Santa Clara,Calif., companys shares rise to $21.75 in the next several months but not above that point.Nvidias stock ended Friday at $14.73, up 5.1% on the Nasdaq.Meanwhile, in the Semiconductor Holdrs Trust, an exchange-traded fund that tracks several chip stocks, onetrader elected to "roll out" a short position in the funds put options.Anticipating stability in the ETFs shares, this trader bought September $25 puts that had been sold inprevious sessions, thereby closing a short position in those contracts, and then sold longer-dated October$26 puts. The latter contracts generate $1.30 in premiums, so the position shows a profit as long as thesemiconductor fund stays above $24.70. It closed Friday at $25.69, up 1.9%.Fueling at least some of the days action was Intel, which surprised investors by raising its third-quarterrevenue forecast to $9 billion, citing stronger-than-expected demand for its microprocessors.The trading also followed Marvells second-quarter results, which topped estimates, and a better-than-expected third-quarter outlook.Still, some options strategists say it could be time to unwind out of chip stocks, particularly those that haverallied near their 52-week highs or even surpassed them, and to buy call options in the companies instead.This so-called stock-replacement strategy enables investors to lock in recent advances in the stocks, whilePage 20 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  21. 21. maintaining exposure to future upside moves."The implied volatility has declined in line with this strong performance, so you can take advantage of thisenvironment and sell the shares while still having exposure to the upside by buying calls," said RyanRenicker, derivatives strategist with Newedge USA.Among the companies that Mr. Renicker highlighted as potential candidates of the stock replacementstrategy are Marvell, Nvidia, Texas Instruments and Broadcom.Write to Tennille Tracy at tennille.tracy@dowjones.comDocument WSJO000020091006e58v001b5Page 21 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  22. 22. The Best Analysts of the YearThe Best Analysts of the Year24,736 words17 October 2006Institutional Investor - AmericasINVSEnglishCopyright 2006 Euromoney Institutional Investor plc.Click here to view the Rankings.Chemicals/CommodityDonald CarsonMerrill LynchSecond Team: Sergey Vasnetsov LehmanThird Team: P.J. Juvekar CitigroupRunners-up: Robert Koort Goldman Sachs; Kevin McCarthy BofA; William Young Credit SuisseKeeping a good thing going, Donald Carson, 52, appears on the first team for a fourth year in a row asinvestors continue to praise his long support of Monsanto Co. The Merrill analyst upgraded the St. Louis-based seed and herbicide giant to buy in August 2003, at a split-adjusted price of $10.90, on the basis of itsrich agricultural-biotechnology pipeline. By year-end 2005, Monsanto shares had jumped to $38.49 (split-adjusted), outstripping the MSCI chemicals index last year by 43.7 percentage points. Carson kept raisinghis price targets, most recently in August, primarily owing to Monsantos forthcoming drought-tolerant cornand other potential blockbusters. Shares rose to $44.24 through mid-September. "He has the courage of hisconvictions and helps us make money," explains one client. A bearish outlook cements a third consecutivesecond-place finish for Lehmans Sergey Vasnetsov. Last December he declared 2005 the peak year in theethylene cycle and downgraded to market weight Midland, Michigan-based Dow Chemical Co., thediversified goliath, at $43.84, and Olin Corp., a Clayton, Missouri-based chemicals and metal-productsproducer, at $19.21, among others. Through mid-September the shares had fallen 12.0 and 18.2 percent,respectively. "He was the first to reduce Dow, which is a barometer for the entire sector, and it was a wisedecision," observes one investor. Advancing from Runner-up: to third place, which he has occupied twice inthe past five years (2002 and 2004), P.J. Juvekar of Citigroup impresses clients with his "vast knowledge"and "deep thinking." Sponsors fondly recall a May report about ethanol, the corn-based alternative fuel,which "explained the science in the context of specific stocks," as one grateful customer puts it. Partlybecause of Monsantos involvement in corn production, Juvekar, who also ranks third inChemicals/Specialty, upgraded the stock to buy in August 2005, at a split-adjusted $33.11. Through mid-September the shares were up 33.6 percent.Chemicals/SpecialtyRobert KoortGoldman SachsSecond Team: David Begleiter DeutscheThird Team: P.J. Juvekar CitigroupRunners-up: Donald Carson Merrill Lynch; Jeffrey Cianci UBS; Kevin McCarthy BofA; John McNulty CreditSuisse; Sergey Vasnetsov Lehman; Jeffrey Zekauskas J.P. MorganIn his fourth consecutive appearance on the first team, Robert Koort earns high marks for "keeping a sharpPage 22 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  23. 23. eye on valuations," says one portfolio manager. Clients were especially grateful to the Goldman analyst forsteering them to Ecolab, a St. Paul, Minnesota-based supplier of institutional cleaning products. In October2005, Koort, 38, upgraded the stock to outperform, as a bargain at $31.49; by mid-September the shareshad risen to $41.98, an increase of 33.3 percent, compared with a 12.0 percent gain for the sector. Providingunrivaled access to senior managements is one way that repeat second-teamer David Begleiter of Deutscheendears himself to clients. "Dave brings corporates around to meet us, rather than having us go on fieldtrips, which is a nice time-saver," asserts one money manager. Another highlights his "unique perspective,"especially on Cytec Industries, a West Paterson, New Jersey, midcap manufacturer of adhesives and otherspecialized engineering materials. Begleiter upgraded Cytec to buy back in March 2004, at $32.29. In the 12months ended mid-September 2006, the stock rose 26.7 percent, to $54.63. P.J. Juvekar of Citigroup, whoalso ranks third in Chemicals/Commodity, debuts on the Third Team:. Dubbed "a storehouse of knowledge"by one client, Juvekar made a November counterconsensus upgrade to buy on Engelhard Corp., at $27.43,on the assumption that new diesel emissions standards for trucks would drive demand for the Iselin, NewJersey-based companys catalytic converters. The stock shot up to $38.00 in January after Germanchemicals giant BASF made a tender offer, and Juvekar downgraded it to hold, on valuation; when the dealclosed in June, Engelhard shares had settled at $38.98. "P.J. helps us make money," explains one happybuy-sider.Metals & MiningPeter WardLehmanSecond Team: Anthony Rizzuto Jr. Bear StearnsThird Team: Michael Gambardella J.P. MorganRunner-up: John Hill CitigroupRepeating on the first-place team, Peter Ward impresses clients with his dedication and perseverance. TheLehman analyst has been bullish on copper since mid-2004, reasoning that because there have been fewsignificant new discoveries of copper mines, supplies will remain tight and prices will rise. During the 12months ended mid-September, prices almost doubled, from $16.78 per pound to $33.17, helped by strongdemand from China. Ward, 39, stuck with a June 2004 overweight on Phelps Dodge Corp., pegged at a split-adjusted price of $34.50, and added it to Lehmans short list of "Uncommon Values" in June 2005, at $45.46,and June 2006, at $77.58. Through mid-September the Phoenix-based copper producer had risen to $83.73,advancing 62.5 percent in the preceding 12 months and surpassing the sector average by 41.1 percentagepoints. Anthony Rizzuto Jr. finishes in second place for a fifth year running. The Bear Stearns analyst ishailed for "stock-picking dexterity," in the words of one investor, especially a May 2005 upgrade of AlleghenyTechnologies to outperform. Rizzuto believed that the Pittsburgh company, having just been freed from fixed-price contracts signed in 2001, was undervalued at $21.00. The specialty-metals and alloys producer soaredto $72.98 in April, at which point Rizzuto downgraded it, on valuation. By mid-September the shares hadfallen to $62.99. A bullish view of steel helps Michael Gambardella repeat in third. Since mid-2005 the J.P.Morgan analyst has stressed ever-rising steel prices. Clients applaud his March 2005 upgrades of NucorCorp., a Charlotte, North Carolina-based steel-mill operator, at a split-adjusted $30.88, and scrap-steelsupplier Steel Dynamics of Fort Wayne, Indiana, at $35.93. By mid-September the stocks had risen to$46.76 and $50.93, respectively. "No one knows more than Mike about the minutiae of steel," affirms onesupporter.Paper & Forest ProductsChip DillonCitigroupSecond Team: Mark Connelly Credit SuisseThird Team: Peter Ruschmeier LehmanRunners-up: Richard Schneider UBS; George Staphos BofA; Mark Wilde DeutscheFor the seventh time in ten years, Chip Dillon, 48, appears on the first team. The Citigroup analyst "makespaper interesting," says one investor. Dillon also makes it profitable. He upgraded Georgia-Pacific Corp. inJanuary 2002, at $25.66, and remained bullish on the stock even when its price slipped in the first half of lastyear, from $37.04 in January to $31.80 in June. In November shares soared to $47.28, after privately heldKoch Industries announced it would acquire the Atlanta-based wood producer for $13.2 billion. Dillon alsoPage 23 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  24. 24. wins praise for not being afraid to issue sell ratings. Case in point: Louisiana-Pacific Corp. In March, Dillondowngraded the Nashville-based lumber supplier to sell, at $27.83, on pricing pressure. By July the stockhad fallen to $20.39, cheap enough that he upgraded to hold. In mid-September it was still hovering at about$20. Clients highly regard repeat second-teamer Mark Connelly for his knowledge and perspective. "No onehas a deeper or broader view of the sector," says one money manager. The Credit Suisse analyst earnspoints for his April 2005 upgrade of Rock-Tenn Co., a Norcross, Georgia-based paperboard manufacturer,judged a bargain at $9.85. As of mid-September 2006 the stock had more than doubled, to $20.18,advancing 33.9 percent in the preceding 12 months, while the sector was up 21.1 percent in the sameperiod. Peter Ruschmeier, who moves up a notch to third, "keeps his finger on the pulse of the industry,"says one buy-sider. Investors praise the Lehman analysts ongoing bearish stand on Smurfit-StoneContainer Corp. He downgraded the Chicago-based containerboard producer to underweight in August2002, deeming it overpriced at $13.27; Smurfits shares fell to $10.27 in July, and Ruschmeier upgradedthem to equal weight, on valuation. By mid-September they had edged up to $11.02.Aerospace & Defense ElectronicsSteven BinderBear StearnsSecond Team: Robert Stallard BofAThird Team: George Shapiro CitigroupRunners-up: Joseph Campbell Jr. Lehman; Douglas Harned Sanford C. Bernstein; David Strauss UBS; HeidiWood Morgan Stanley"Its amazing how well he understands the dynamics of these industries," asserts an enthusiast of BearStearns Steven Binder, who outshines the competition for his eighth consecutive first-place finish. Investorspoint to the analysts long-standing endorsement of Lockheed Martin Corp. Binder, 48, has recommendedthe Bethesda, Maryland-based defense contractor since July 1998 as undervalued at a split-adjusted $45.55.Through mid-September 2006 the shares reached $83.00, gaining a stunning 35.3 percent in the preceding12 months, when the sector as a whole rose 19.0 percent. Clients also mention an early June alert aboutpossible delays in Airbus Industries new A380 superjumbo plane, which came just days before the companyannounced a six-month delay. "Hes got information sources like no one else," sums up one moneymanager. Newcomer Robert Stallard of BofA wows investors with the breadth of his coverage. "He picks upsome of the smaller names that are otherwise off our radar screens," says one client. The second-teamerhas favored Precision Castparts Corp., a Portland, Oregon-based midcap supplier to the aerospace industry,since August 2004, at a split-adjusted $27.13, because of its exposure to the improving aerospace sector.Through mid-September 2006 the stock had flown to $57.41. In third after four years at No. 2 is CitigroupsGeorge Shapiro, who is "that rare analyst you can easily chat with and always learn something new," relatesone buy-sider. Shapiro, who has placed on the All-America Research Team for 23 straight years, continuesto win praise for his July 2004 buy recommendation of United Technologies Corp., at a split-adjusted $44.39,on its changing, diverse business mix. Through mid-September 2006 the Hartford, Connecticut-basedaircraft-engine maker had skyrocketed to $64.61, up 29.6 percent over the previous 12 months.Airfreight & Surface TransportationEdward WolfeBear StearnsSecond Team: Kenneth Hoexter Merrill LynchThird Team: Thomas Wadewitz J.P. MorganRunners-up: John Larkin Stifel Nicolaus; Rick Paterson UBSIts four in a row for Edward Wolfe, who wins the top spot in a landslide. Investors praise what one deemsthe Bear Stearns analysts "broad purview" and single out an August 2005 upgrade to outperform on small-cap freight railroad Genesee & Wyoming, at a split-adjusted $19.20, partly on its booming business inAustralia. In February the "independent thinker," as one supporter describes Wolfe, 40, downgraded theGreenwich, Connecticut-based G&W to peer perform, at $28.77, after the company announced a $941million gain from selling some routes in southern Australia, which prompted an abrupt hike in the share price.As of mid-September the stock had corrected to $23.55. Kenneth Hoexter leapfrogs two spots to the SecondTeam:. The Merrill analyst endears himself to clients with frequent, brief telephone conversations. Says onegrateful buy-sider, "Ken doesnt send out reams of paper or leave long, impersonal voice mails, as so manyPage 24 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  25. 25. other analysts do. He actually talks -- and answers questions off-the-cuff -- which is rare." Advocates alsoapplaud his recent emphasis on select railroad companies such as CSX Corp. Hoexter upgraded theJacksonville, Florida-based company to buy in September 2004, at $16.27 (split-adjusted), on its plans toimplement a new scheduling system. By mid-September 2006, CSX had charged to $31.61, advancing 43.9percent in the preceding 12 months. Newcomer Thomas Wadewitz joined J.P. Morgan from Bear Stearns inJune 2005 and hit the ground running. In July 2005 the third-teamer launched coverage of CSX with anoverweight rating, at a split-adjusted $21.74, enabling clients to capture an eye-popping 45.4 percent gainthrough mid-September 2006. "Tom does rigorous modeling and consequently has the best earningsestimates of anyone covering the space," declares one money manager.Business & Professional ServicesAndrew SteinermanBear StearnsSecond Team: Kelly Flynn UBSThird Team: Gregory Cappelli Credit SuisseRunner-up: Christopher Gutek Morgan StanleyReturning first-teamer Andrew Steinerman of Bear Stearns earns praise for an ongoing series of staffingreports. Steinerman, 38, has been stressing revenue growth and margin expansion at select companies withinternational exposure. "He pointed out that in some countries, industries were being deregulated and therewas high demand for skilled staffing services," recalls one investor. Last October, Steinerman highlightedManpower as undervalued, at $43.87; by mid-September shares of the Milwaukee-based internationaloutsourcer had climbed to $60.90. Other investors single out Steinermans long-standing cautious stance onSpherion Corp., a temp agency headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, because of its lack ofinternational exposure. Year-to-date through mid-September, Spherion fell from $10.01 to $7.11, and thesector as a whole was flat. Moving up one rung to second is Kelly Flynn of UBS, who "really gets inside hercompanies," declares one investor. Flynn was especially astute in her coverage of Career Education Corp.,a Hoffman Estates, Illinois-based provider of postsecondary courses. Flynn issued a sell recommendation inSeptember 2004, at $30.50, largely because of federal investigations into allegations that the companysubmitted false claims to the Department of Education about costs and job placement of its students. Thestock seesawed until April 2006, when a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation ended with noenforcement action, and the price shot up to $41.70. Flynn stood her ground, insisting the companysaccreditation, and consequently its revenue, were still in danger from other, ongoing investigations. She wasright. The company missed its second-quarter earnings, and shares had plunged to $20.52 by mid-September. Though he slips one notch to third, Gregory Cappelli of Credit Suisse is "able to juggle a lot ofballs at once and never lose sight of whats important," says one investor. In September 2005, Capelliupgraded SkillSoft, at $3.85, believing the Dublin, Ireland-based developer of electronic-learning programswould benefit from the economic stability buoying its potential market. A year later the shares were up 72.7percent, to $6.65.Electrical Equipment & Multi-IndustryJeffrey SpragueCitigroupSecond Team: Robert Cornell LehmanThird Team: John Inch Merrill LynchRunner-up: Scott Davis Morgan StanleyJeffrey Sprague, 45, wins the top spot for a seventh year in a row, impressing clients with what one calls his"Midas touch." Investors cite the Citigroup analysts April 2005 buy recommendation on Washington-basedtoolmaker Danaher Corp., as a bargain at $49.82. Though a tad early -- the stock didnt gain lastingmomentum until November -- the recommendation proved wise when Danaher rocketed to $66.70 in mid-September. "He was ahead of the curve and stuck to his guns," observes one money manager. Clientscontinue to be pleased with Spragues July 2004 buy on Textron, at $56.29, partly based on a big order forthe Providence, Rhode Island, companys Cessna business jets. By mid-September 2006 the shares hadsoared to $83.83, an increase of 20.8 percent over the preceding 12 months, while electrical equipmentshares were up 15.9 percent during the same period. Returning to the Second Team: for a seventhconsecutive year, Robert Cornell of Lehman is an analyst who one supporter says "never ceases to amaze";Page 25 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  26. 26. recommendations from years past, such as Emerson Electric Co., continue to bear fruit. Cornell upgradedEmerson to buy in September 2002, at $39.35, based on the St. Louis companys impending transformationfrom a components builder to a diversified technology-based solutions provider; in the 12 months ended mid-September 2006, Emerson surged 27.1 percent, to $82.68. "No one has more knowledge or better instincts,"declares a satisfied client. No. 3 for a fourth year running, Merrills John Inch earns praise for having "anagile mind," as one portfolio manager puts it. Last October, Inch issued a sell recommendation on ITT Corp.,a White Plains, New York-based supplier of electronic components, believing it was overpriced at a split-adjusted $55.08. A month later, when it had fallen to $49.27, he upgraded it to neutral, again on valuation;then in July, believing ITT was reasonably priced at $49.50, he upgraded it to buy. The shares were tradingat $49.18 in September.Environmental ServicesLeone YoungCitigroupSecond Team: Amanda Tepper J.P. MorganThird Team: Lorraine Maikis Merrill LynchClaiming victory for a sixth consecutive year, Citigroups Leone Young is "always ahead of the curve," saysone money manager. Clients especially appreciate her ongoing coverage of Waste Management. Young, 45,upgraded the Houston-based, national sanitation giant back in August 2002, at $23.72, partly onmanagements cost-cutting discipline. In August 2005, at $27.65, she believed it had new pricing power; inJanuary she dubbed it one of her top picks for 2006. By mid-September it had risen to $35.37, up 18.8percent year-to-date, while industrial conglomerates were down 1.7 percent during the same period. AmandaTepper, in second place for a fourth year running, garners accolades for the November 2005 installment ofher biannual survey of waste haulers, which indicated that companies could sustain sufficiently high priceincreases to offset rising energy costs. Tepper, whos also No. 3 in Packaging, favored Republic Services,first endorsed in November 2004, at $30.65, partly on its stock-repurchase program. Shares of the FortLauderdale, Florida-based nonhazardous-solid-waste remover jumped to $43.86 in April 2006 before slippingto $37.89 in mid-September. "She said it would be a good year for waste companies, and so far it looks to betrue," comments one investor. (Tepper left J.P. Morgan to join BofA in September as associate director ofequity research.) Merrills Lorraine Maikis moves up a notch to third place. Backers single out her "in-depthapproach to corporate accounting," as one puts it, citing an April 2005 report, "Comparing Apples toOranges," which examined how industry accounting practices affect earnings. It explained, for instance, thata decline in Waste Managements free cash flow was the result of land purchases essential to expandingcapacity. She has backed the company since August 2003, at $22.14, on its strong pricing momentum.MachineryDavid RasoCitigroupSecond Team: Joel Tiss LehmanThird Team: Ann Duignan Bear StearnsRunner-up: David Bleustein UBSCitigroups David Raso stands victorious again with his sixth consecutive appearance on the first team, andwins praise for his coverage of Caterpillar. Raso, 36, downgraded the Peoria, Illinois-based engine builder tohold in September 2005, at $57.92, on pricing pressure from hurricane-induced interruptions in its supplychain. One month later, after Caterpillar announced disappointing third-quarter results and loweredexpectations for the fourth quarter, the stock plunged 12.2 percent in three days. Raso upgraded it to buy inJanuary, at $62.24, after his construction-equipment dealers survey indicated higher demand for Catproducts. By mid-September, Cat shares had climbed to $65.43. "Hes got channels of information that makehim seem prescient," confides one advocate. Lehmans Joel Tiss jumps to the Second Team: from Runner-up:, earning accolades for having what one money manager calls the "broadest coverage universe on theStreet." Especially noteworthy was an October 2005 overweight on Manitowoc Co., a small-cap craneprovider based in Manitowoc, Wisconsin, in part on its booming business from rebuilding hurricane-ravagedareas, at a split-adjusted $23.96. By mid-September the shares had risen a whopping 86.7 percent, to$44.74, well outpacing the sectors 15.7 percent rise. "Hes terrific at uncovering moneymaking ideas,"cheers one grateful client. Repeat third-teamer Ann Duignan -- known as "Ethyl Ann" for frequent TVappearances in which she discusses the prospects for ethanol -- shows it is possible to do well by doingPage 26 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  27. 27. good. Customers applaud the Bear Stearns analysts monthly "Green Machine Renewable Energy Update"as "concise" and "comprehensive." Backers especially praise Duignans July 2005 upgrade of Deere & Co.,the agricultural-equipment goliath headquartered in Moline, Illinois, at $64.76, on rising demand because ofhigher corn prices. By mid-September 2006, Deere had jumped to $80.87.PackagingGeorge StaphosBofASecond Team: Ghansham Panjabi WachoviaThird Team: Amanda Tepper J.P. MorganGeorge Staphos easily takes first for a third straight year (and the seventh time in eight years). The BofAanalyst impressed clients last fall with reports about hurricane-related interruptions in the supply of resinsused by flexible packagers such as Sealed Air Corp. of Elmwood Park, New Jersey, and Pactiv Corp. ofLake Forest, Illinois. Staphos, 41, downgraded Sealed Air to neutral in September 2005, at $49.41, on risingresin prices; one year later it had edged up only to $52.95. He stuck with his longstanding buy on Pactiv,though it had dropped 25.3 percent from the start of 2005, to $18.90. Largely betting on improving margins inthe companys Hefty-brand household-bags business, Staphos reiterated his endorsement; by mid-September 2006 the stock had rallied to $27.83, a gain of 47.2 percent; the sector was up just 2.6 percent."Why would I need to go to anyone else?" asks a satisfied buy-sider. Ghansham Panjabi, who returns tosecond place after a year in third, helps clients comprehend "true underlying value, which can be hard tocalculate given recent volatility in component costs," says one investor. Case in point: Crown Holdings. InAugust 2005, shortly after joining Wachovia, Panjabi backed the Philadelphia-based container maker asundervalued at $16.30, a position he reiterated strongly in May, when the stock slipped to $15.64. Hestressed Crowns true worth and resilience, given its wide penetration of the food and beverage industries.By mid-September the stock had climbed to $18.47. Trading places with Panjabi is No. 3 Amanda Tepper(who also ranks in Environmental Services). Though she ceased coverage for J.P. Morgan in June toprepare for her September move to BofA, followers prize her nod last November to Sonoco Products Co., aHartsville, South Carolina, supplier of paperboard cans and tubes, for its recent cost-cutting efforts. Sonocorose from $27.48 at the time of the call to $33.90 in mid-September.AirlinesDavid StrineBear StearnsSecond Team: Michael Linenberg Merrill LynchThird Team: Jamie Baker J.P. MorganRunner-up: Garrett Chase LehmanDavid Strine of Bear Stearns jets into the top spot among airlines analysts, up from No. 2 last year. Strine,37, is a 1990 University of Vermont graduate and former corporate lawyer who says a fascination withbusiness and an early internship in finance lured him back to Wall Street, where his bullish calls have helpedclients make money over the past year -- at least those who paid attention. Most airlines analysts turnedbearish on USAirways Group after it merged with America West Airlines, but Strine saw value and rated thestock an outperform in September 2005, at $20.21, reasoning that competitors route cutbacks in East Coastmarkets and Southwest Airlines fare raises would help the carrier. He was right. By mid-September 2006,USAirways stock had soared 128.7 percent, to $46.23, while the sector was up 13.7 percent over thatperiod. "Hes a good stock picker," says one buy-sider. Adds another: "He doesnt get rattled by day-to-dayevents." Though he drops from the first team to the second, Michael Linenberg continues to impressinvestors with the timeliness of his calls. In July the Merrill analyst downgraded USAirways, AMR Corp.(parent of American Airlines) and Continental Airlines, to neutral, believing they were "getting ahead ofthemselves," he says. By mid-September the stocks had slipped 13.5, 12.9 and 6.3 percent, respectively,since the time of Linenbergs downgrade. "Theres Michael, and theres everybody else," says one portfoliomanager. "He is as good as it gets." Repeating on the Third Team:, Jamie Baker earns praise for being "veryearly in seeing through the effects of high oil prices and hurricanes," says one client. The J.P. Morgananalyst was bullish on not only USAirways but also American and Continental. Last October, Bakerrecommended overweighting the latter two. By mid-September, Americans shares had jumped 86.5 percent,and Continental had skyrocketed 145.9 percent, since Bakers recommendation.Page 27 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  28. 28. Apparel, Footwear & TextilesRobert OhmesBofASecond Team: Robert Drbul LehmanThird Team: Jeffrey Edelman UBSRunners-up: Lizabeth Dunn Prudential; Virginia Genereux Merrill Lynch;Margaret Mager Goldman SachsRobert Ohmes, 37, of BofA steps up from Second Team: last year to this years top spot with what onepleased buy-sider calls "great perspective in a space where its easy to struggle." A micro approach -- usingchannel checks and detailed financial models -- helps Ohmes determine which companies can gain marketshare and provide earnings surprises. Clients especially appreciated Ohmess buy rating on activewearmaker Under Armour of Baltimore, inaugurated in mid-March at $27.42. "Others focused on the stocks highmultiple," observes one investor. "He saw how the company was taking market share and how it wouldtranslate into higher earnings." As of mid-September, Under Armour had risen to $39.60. Ohmes, who holdsa B.A. from Vanderbilt University and an MBA from the University of Maryland University College, workedpreviously as a Retailing/Softlines analyst for Morgan Stanley. Losing his four-year foothold in first place,Robert Drbul slips to No. 2, but backers say he is still "a reliable gut-check when the Street is overly positiveor negative." The Lehman researcher, who ranks third in Retailing/Broadlines & Department Stores, issuedan overweight rating on a beat-up Phillips-Van Heusen Corp. of New York in October 2005, at $27.73,because he believed that, with the Calvin Klein brand on track, the company had some of the best growthprospects in apparels. The stock had risen to $41.83 by mid-September. Holding steady in third place,Jeffrey Edelman has what one investor calls the "exceedingly rare qualities of experience and judgment."That judgment led the UBS analyst to downgrade Kellwood Co. of St. Louis and Columbia Sportswear ofPortland, Oregon. He placed a reduce rating on Kellwood in June at $30.88 and a neutral rating on Columbiain April at $55.01. The stocks were trading at $28.29 and $53.80, respectively, in mid-September.Autos & Auto PartsRonald TadrossBofASecond Team: Rod Lache DeutscheThird Team: Himanshu Patel J.P. MorganRunners-up: Darren Kimball Lehman; Jon Rogers Citigroup"An all-around solid analyst whos not afraid to get down in the muck" is how one money manager describesRonald Tadross, who zooms from Runner-up: to the first team. The BofA analyst says he has beenenamored of Wall Street ever since he commuted to Prudential Securities in New York, where he workedpart-time while earning a degree in finance at Connecticuts Fairfield University in 1993. Tadross, 35, is oneof the few U.S. analysts to follow Toyota Motor Corp. He pinned a buy on the stock in October 2005, at$91.87, largely on the strength of the new-product pipeline at its North American operations, anddowngraded to neutral in May, at $116.67, after the stock gained 27.0 percent and overtook Tadross targetprice of $104. By mid-September the shares had slipped back to $106.16. Rod Lache, who repeats on theSecond Team:, wins accolades as much for his "good work on the fundamentals" as for his "phenomenal listof industry contacts," says one portfolio manager. Investors praise the Deutsche analyst for his series ofcalls on Johnson Controls, beginning with a buy recommendation last November. At the time the Milwaukeeparts manufacturers shares were trading at $68.94; in June, when the share price hit $89.35, Lachedowngraded to hold. By mid-September the stock had slipped to $71.86. Advancing from Runner-up: to thirdis J.P. Morgans Himanshu Patel, who is "an independent thinker in an industry where theres a herdmentality," says one client. Patel believed that fears of a General Motors Corp. bankruptcy were overblownand recommended overweighting the stock in January, at $18.36, after the company launched its T900platform for SUVs. In August he downgraded to neutral, at $30.99. Investors who listened locked in gains of68.8 percent.BeveragesPage 28 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  29. 29. William PecorielloMorgan StanleySecond Team: John Faucher J.P. MorganThird Team: Robert van Brugge Sanford C. BernsteinRunners-up: Michael Branca Lehman; Carlos Laboy Bear Stearns; Bryan Spillane BofA"He has some of the best industry data, is incredibly accessible and is extremely valuable in giving you asense of what the consensus is thinking," says one money manager of William Pecoriello, 41, who finisheson the first team for a fourth consecutive year. The Morgan Stanley analyst upgraded Atlanta-based Coca-Cola Enterprises in June, at $19.16, owing to several factors, among them new CEO John Brockswillingness to leverage Cokes assets (including distributing non-Coke products, if necessary) and theintroduction of several new tea beverages. By mid-September the shares had risen 8.2 percent, to $20.74,versus gains of 6.6 percent for the sector and 6.4 percent for the Standard & Poors 500 index. JohnFaucher, who repeats in the No. 2 spot, is "a great sounding-board and voice of reason," according to onemoney manager. The J.P. Morgan analyst was bullish on PepsiCo, urging investors to overweight it inSeptember 2005, at $54.42, largely on stronger-than-expected sales of Gatorade. "They enabled PepsiCo tosignificantly exceed expectations and outperform the market, the beverage group and consumer staples,"says Faucher. By mid-September 2006, Pepsis share price had risen 19.5 percent, to $65.03, sinceFauchers call, while beverages were up 9.0 percent over that period. Another satisfied client notes thatFaucher "gives straightforward, honest assessments of businesses and management teams, irrespective ofhis ratings. I also like his somewhat holistic approach in understanding the whole consumer staplesuniverse." A willingness to take a contrarian stand helps Robert van Brugge rise from Runner-up: to third.The Sanford C. Bernstein analyst initiated coverage of Fairport, New York-based Constellation Brands inApril 2005, at a split-adjusted $29.10, breaking from consensus to put an underperform rating on the shares.That October, when the shares had fallen to $22.25, van Brugge upgraded to market perform. Through mid-September the shares had risen 25.0 percent, to $27.81, since his upgrade.Cosmetics, Household & Personal Care ProductsWendy NicholsonCitigroupSecond Team: Lauren Lieberman LehmanThird Team: Amy Low Chasen Goldman SachsRunners-up: John Faucher J.P. Morgan; William Pecoriello Morgan Stanley; William Schmitz DeutscheCapturing first place for the first time, Wendy Nicholson "knows the short term, but she doesnt lose sight ofthe big picture," says one supporter. The Citigroup analyst, ranked third for the past two years, is a 1990University of Pennsylvania graduate who worked in Citis investment banking department for eight yearsbefore transferring to research in 1998. Nicholson, 38, wins accolades for her call on Avon Products of NewYork, which she upgraded in October 2005, at $24.12, on the companys restructuring and cost-cuttinginitiatives. By mid-September the shares had risen 22.5 percent, to $29.54. "I was particularly impressed byher willingness to go against the grain when Avon sold off last year," explains one investor. "It was a gutsymove on her part." Another consensus-breaker, Lauren Lieberman, debuts on the Second Team:. TheLehman analyst was not as enthusiastic as her peers about Procter & Gamble Co.s $57 billion acquisition ofthe Gillette Co. last year, believing that investors were already paying for all of the promised cost synergiesand step-up in long-term revenue growth from the acquisition. After peaking in March at $61.56, P&G sharessank to $52.94 by early June. Two weeks later, Lieberman upgraded the stock to market perform. By mid-September the shares were up 11.6 percent since Liebermans upgrade; the personal products subsectorwas flat over that period. Amy Low Chasen, who slips one notch to third after five straight years at No. 2,continues to win praise for her coverage of longtime favorite Colgate-Palmolive Co. of New York. TheGoldman analyst first upgraded the stock in December 2004, at $48.21, on the belief that companyrestructuring would eventually pay off for investors -- and she has maintained that stance despitedisappointing results. The past year proved her right: For the 12-month period ended mid-September,Colgates stock rose 19.8 percent.FoodAndrew LazarLehmanPage 29 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  30. 30. Second Team: Terry Bivens Bear StearnsThird Team: David Nelson Credit SuisseRunner-up: Eric Katzman DeutscheOn the first team for a fourth year in a row, Andrew Lazar “is one of the few sell-side analysts who candifferentiate between management teams that are taking the correct actions to build longer-term franchisevalue versus those that are just out to make short-term profits,” says one money manager. The Lehmananalyst did just that with his coverage of Kellogg Co., which he upgraded in September 2005, at $43.01, onexpectations of more-aggressive share repurchases going forward and the sustainability of earnings-per-share growth. By mid-September 2006 shares of the Battle Creek, Michigan–based breakfast cerealmanufacturer had risen 15.6 percent, to $49.71, compared with 12.4 percent for the sector and 8.6 percentfor the S&P 500. Lazar, 40, understood Kellogg’s “dedication to sustaining superior topline growth whilereinvesting in the business,” says one buy-sider. Terry Bivens catapults from Runner-up: to second place onthe strength of calls “that continue to be money-making for his constituents,” according to one investor. Casein point: H.J. Heinz Co. The Bear Stearns analyst highlighted his outperform call last December, at $33.28,citing the Pittsburgh-based company’s strong cash position and appealing price-earnings ratio. As of mid-September the shares were up 23.1 percent, to $40.98. “Bivens couples his business acumen with greatcommunication skills to deliver a unique research product,” says one longtime client. David Nelson, whoslips to third place after two years at No. 2, “has a very deep understanding and knowledge of all theplayers,” says one investor. These qualities prompted the Credit Suisse analyst to upgrade Tyson Foods inApril, at $12.85, on the belief that fears of avian flu were overstated. By mid-September shares of theSpringdale, Arkansas–based poultry processor had risen 24.1 percent, to $15.95.Gaming & LodgingJoseph GreffBear StearnsSecond Team: David Anders Merrill LynchThird Team: Harry Curtis J.P. MorganMoney managers say they hit the jackpot with Joseph Greff, who leaps from Runner-up: to first team fordelivering “very thorough work and timely research calls” in an industry prone to gambling fever. The BearStearns analyst, who earned an MBA from New York University’s Stern School of Business in 1999,impressed clients with his coverage of Shuffle Master. Greff, 36, upgraded the Las Vegas–based gamemanufacturer to outperform in March, at $26.23, then downgraded six weeks later, at $39.59, asserting thatthe stock had reached its peak. By mid-September, Shuffle shares had fallen to $26.79, a 32.3 percent dropfrom the time of Greff’s downgrade. “That was a gutsy call,” says one buy-sider, noting that many of Greff’speers were betting for more upside. “Joe is an independent thinker who’s willing to break from the pack.”David Anders of Merrill, who repeats in second place, wins praise for being “logical — he doesn’t just comeout with an opinion and try to justify it,” says one satisfied client. The San Francisco–based analyst has beenurging investors to shun gaming stocks and stick with hotels because demand is outstripping supply. Sharesof Beverly Hills, California–based Hilton Hotels Corp., Washington-based Marriott International and WhitePlains, New York–based Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide were up 16.9, 16.1 and 16.0 percent,respectively, year-to-date through mid-September. Returning to third place after two years as Runner-up:,Harry Curtis “puts on the best gaming conference in the industry,” says one European investor, who treks toLas Vegas every March to attend. Among the J.P. Morgan analyst’s favorite stocks is Wynn Resorts, whichCurtis has rated overweight since 2003. Shares of the Las Vegas–based casino operator were up 50.5percent for the year ended mid-September.Homebuilders & Building ProductsIvy ZelmanCredit SuisseSecond Team: Margaret Whelan UBSThird Team: Stephen Kim CitigroupIvy Zelman is back on top. Investors especially praise the Credit Suisse analyst, who scored six straight first-Page 30 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  31. 31. team finishes before slipping to third last year, for her July 2005 report warning that “excessive speculation”and gimmicky mortgage instruments such as interest-only loans were creating artificially inflated housingprices, resulting in “alarming” risk in the sector. Zelman, 40, urged investors to sell. Among her mostprescient downgrades: M.D.C. Holdings of Denver, down 42.0 percent since Zelman’s call; KB Home of LosAngeles, down 37.9 percent; and Beazer Homes USA of Atlanta, down 31.3 percent. “While others weretrying to justify why earnings could go down slowly,” says one portfolio manager, “Ivy said they wouldplummet.” Margaret Whelan, who slips a notch to second place, is “knowledgeable and good at identifyingtrends,” says one client. The UBS analyst acknowledges she was blindsided by the size and starkness of thehousing slump. “Everybody was anticipating the downturn,” she says. “I just thought it would be softer.”Despite staying bullish too long on some stocks, Whelan gets credit for her timely call on Furniture BrandsInternational, a St. Louis–based manufacturer she downgraded in July 2005, at $21.25, because of stiffcompetition from low-cost Asian rivals. Share prices started to slip the following month, and by mid-September were down 10.2 percent, to $19.09. Though he drops from second place to third, Stephen Kim ofCitigroup still earns clients’ praise for his “detailed work” on the land inventory held by bigger builders. Kimnoted that property acquired in 2002 is more valuable and less costly to have on the books than landacquired in 2005. “It’s very important because companies that have the oldest land are the safest,” says oneinvestor.LeisureRobin FarleyUBSSecond Team: David Anders Merrill LynchThird Team: Felicia Kantor Hendrix LehmanRunners-up: Scott Barry Credit Suisse; Timothy Conder A.G. Edwards; Dean Gianoukos J.P. MorganIt’s five in a row for Robin Farley, who is “the first person I go to for knowledge,” as one money manager putsit. The UBS analyst keeps her eye not only on stocks but also on the weather: In March she downgradedRoyal Caribbean Cruises and lowered earnings estimates for Carnival Corp., both of Miami, on the beliefthat fear of hurricanes would prevent travelers from booking. Through mid-September, Royal Caribbean’sshares were down 15.5 percent since Farley’s call. Although she maintained a buy on Carnival, “herearnings estimates were lower than everybody’s before the stock fell,” explains one client. Carnival’s stockwas down 14.9 percent over the same period. In August she impressed investors with her assessment of theimpact of Alaska’s new, $50-per-person tax on cruise ship passengers. Farley, 36, reasoned that costswould not be passed along to consumers and would hit earnings by only several pennies a share. Advancingfrom Runner-up: to second place, David Anders wins praise for his April report, “Jumping Ship to NeutralTerritory,” in which he too downgraded Royal Caribbean and Carnival, at $41.07 and $47.03, respectively.The Merrill analyst, who is also on the Second Team: in Gaming & Lodging, upgraded both in June, at$37.83 and $39.84, believing that the lower prices accurately reflected fears of a weather-related downturn inbusiness. As of mid-September, Royal Caribbean stock was holding steady, but Carnival’s had climbed backto $43.81. It was “a damn good call,” says one investor. Dropping to No. 3 after four years in second, FeliciaKantor Hendrix is “thorough and balanced,” says one buy-sider. Customers especially appreciated theLehman analyst’s bullishness on Vail Resorts of Avon, Colorado, which she upgraded to buy in January.Year-to-date through mid-September, the stock was up 21.5 percent. “That was a stellar recommendation,”says one supporter.RestaurantsJoseph BuckleyBear StearnsSecond Team: John Glass CIBCThird Team: Andrew Barish BofARunners-up: John Ivankoe J.P. Morgan; David Palmer UBSOn the first team for a sixth year in a row — and in a landslide — Joseph Buckley, 52, is “easy to work withand has a good nose for the stocks,” says one investor. In September 2005 the Bear Stearns analyst sniffedout opportunities sectorwide, urging clients to overweight because “restaurant stocks had overreacted toconcerns about Hurricane Katrina and the related run-up in gasoline prices,” Buckley explains, adding thathe thought the earnings performance of the industry would be better than what the market seemed to bePage 31 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  32. 32. expecting at that time. Buckley called on McDonald’s Corp. to outperform, and it did, rising 15.1 percent forthe 12 months ended mid-September, compared with 7.5 percent for the S&P 500. Vaulting from Runner-up:to second place, John Glass “is one of the few analysts who does actual research rather than taking whatthe companies say and inserting the data into his models,” observes one buy-sider. “He’s also not afraid tomake negative calls.” The CIBC researcher made a negative call on casual-dining restaurants lastDecember, concluding that in 2006 supply growth would outpace demand for the first time in a decade. “Wearrived at this conclusion by doing a thorough, bottom-up analysis of public and private chains within casualdining,” says Glass. Year-to-date through mid-September, the median casual-dining restaurant was down18.0 percent. Andrew Barish, who falls from second place to third, “has a lot of perspective on the industry,”says one money manager. In May that perspective prompted the San Francisco–based BofA analyst to urgeclients not to increase their exposure to casual-dining restaurants, which were losing business to quick-service establishments. “We steered people away from turnaround situations like Applebee’s [International]and OSI Restaurant Partners, which are still trying to turn around,” explains Barish.Retailing/Broadlines & Department StoresDeborah WeinswigCitigroupSecond Team: Christine Augustine Bear StearnsThird Team: Robert Drbul LehmanRunners-up: Dana Cohen BofA; Michael Exstein Credit SuisseDeborah Weinswig claims the top spot for a third consecutive year on the basis of her “wide-rangingperspective on companies,” according to one money manager, and her “overarching view of the sector,”according to another. The Citigroup analyst’s insightful reporting earns raves from clients at a time when hercoverage universe has been down; it lost 6.6 percent year-to-date through mid-September, compared withthe S&P 500’s 5.7 percent gain. Weinswig, 36, issued a report in April stating that, with department storeconsolidations thinning the “overcrowded middle,” Kohl’s Corp. of Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, and J. C.Penney Corp. of Plano, Texas, could not only survive but thrive; she recommended buying both. From thetime of her report through mid-September, the stocks had risen 26.1 and 1.8 percent, respectively. Investorsalso value Weinswig’s conference calls, which “provide access to informative industry contacts,” in the wordsof one buy-sider. Advancing one place to second, Christine Augustine gets high marks from customers for“excellent model work” and “great stock picking.” Case in point: Dollar General Corp., which the BearStearns researcher downgraded from outperform to underperform in January, at $17.82, as rising gas andhome-heating prices were putting pressure on low-income consumers. In August she upgraded to peerperform, at $13.39, after a change in top management at the Goodlettsville, Tennessee–based retailer. By mid-September the share price had inched up to $14.42. Robert Drbul, who debuts in thirdplace, wins praise for keeping “a long-term focus,” says one backer. In February the Lehman analyst, who’son the Second Team: in Apparel, Footwear & Textiles, highlighted his buy call on Kohl’s, first recommendedin November 2002. In mid-September the stock was up 42.8 percent, to $66.85, since Drbul’s most recentrecommendation. “He made me nice money,” says one client who heeded Drbul’s advice.Retailing/Food & Drug ChainsMeredith AdlerLehmanSecond Team: Stephen Chick J.P. MorganThird Team: John Heinbockel Goldman SachsRunner-up: Neil Currie UBSFinishing on the first team for a fifth straight time — and by a wide margin, at that — Meredith Adler “isclearly confident in her knowledge and brings gravitas to the job,” observes one money manager. TheLehman analyst earns particular praise for her work on quantifying the impact of drug-industry changes suchas the mass movement of seniors to the Medicare Part D plan and the $11 billion to $23 billion worth ofprescription brands facing generic competition in 2006 alone. With company forecasts that look out ten years— estimating future demands for and costs of capital, and taking into account off-balance-sheet financing ofsuch items as leases, real estate and tax credits — Adler, 52, makes “solid investment cases” and offers a“uniquely thorough understanding of how companies can create value,” says one supporter. Adler’sPage 32 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.
  33. 33. overweight recommendation on longtime favorite CVS Corp. of Woonsocket, Rhode Island, “continues towork well for our portfolios,” says another. The stock was up 32.0 percent year-to-date as of the middle ofSeptember, compared with a 5.7 percent rise in the S&P 500. Stephen Chick, in second place for a thirdyear in a row, “is not afraid to tell you he’s negative about a company or to avoid a stock.” The J.P. Morgananalyst did just that in January, reiterating his underweight ratings on Whole Foods Market of Austin, Texas,and Supervalu of Eden Prairie, Minnesota; the shares fell by 29.2 and 16.5 percent, respectively, throughmid-August, at which point Chick upgraded both to neutral. Clients say returning third-teamer JohnHeinbockel offers a “good veteran perspective of the industry” and a “good sense of current marketsentiment.” In January the Goldman analyst was bullish on Walgreen Co. of Deerfield, Illinois, among others,on the belief that the sharp increase in generics sales would be a growth catalyst. He was right. Year-to-datethrough the middle of September, Walgreen’s stock had risen 13.4 percent.Retailing/HardlinesAlan RifkinLehmanSecond Team: Colin McGranahan Sanford C. BernsteinThird Team: Gary Balter Credit SuisseRunner-up: Matthew Fassler Goldman SachsAlan Rifkin, who takes top honors for the first time, is “by far the most thoughtful analyst in retail,” accordingto one money manager. Rifkin, 42, second last year, earned an MBA from Syracuse University in 1987 andworked at Thomas Weisel Partners before joining Lehman in 2000. Clients say he makes “excellent sellcalls,” such as the ones he made on RadioShack Corp. in June 2005, at $24.84, and Pier 1 Imports in July2005, at $13.60. By mid-September shares of the Fort Worth, Texas–based retailers had fallen 22.3 and49.9 percent, respectively. Investors also appreciate his buy calls, such as an early January overweightrecommendation on top pick Best Buy Co. Year-to-date through mid-September, shares of the Minneapolis-based electronics retailer had risen 24.2 percent. Though he slips to second, Colin McGranahan thrilledcustomers with his call on Office Depot. “We made a lot of money because of Colin,” says one buy-sider,and the sentiment is echoed by many others. The Sanford C. Bernstein analyst issued an outperform ratingon the Delray Beach, Florida–based retailer in early February, at $32.83, on his belief that cost reductionsand gains in efficiency would boost margins. By mid-September the shares had risen 20.9 percent, to$39.70. McGranahan “has done a phenomenal job of navigating a treacherous sector and avoiding valuetraps,” says one portfolio manager. Advancing from Runner-up: to third, Gary Balter is “in a league of hisown,” says one client, for his ability to spot turnaround opportunities. Case in point: OfficeMax, which theCredit Suisse analyst upgraded to outperform in August 2005, at $26.92, when he believed that the Itasca,Illinois–based retailer would be rife for margin improvement under new management. By mid-September thestock had risen 49.0 percent, to $40.11.Retailing/Specialty StoresBrian TunickJ.P. MorganSecond Team: Stacy Pak PrudentialThird Team: Dana Cohen BofARunner-up: Kimberly Greenberger CitigroupIt’s a first-time first-team finish for Brian Tunick, last year’s No. 2. The J.P. Morgan analyst is a “breath offresh air,” says one portfolio manager. Tunick, 32, is a 1995 graduate of American University with a degreein finance who covered the sector for Bear Stearns before moving to J.P. Morgan in 2002. Clients praise himfor continuing to find value in Men’s Wearhouse; shares of the Houston-based retailer were up 24.0 percentyear-to-date through mid-September. Tunick also wins praise for standing firm on Abercrombie & Fitch Co.“A lot of analysts wavered when the stock became volatile, but he didn’t,” says one investor. The NewAlbany, Ohio–based retailer’s stock began the year at $66.00 and went as low as $50.80 in July beforerebounding to $68.00 in mid-September. Stacy Pak returns to the Second Team: after a year as Runner-up:,with clients lauding the analyst’s “great insights into the fashion business,” her “eye for spotting trends prettyearly” and her “conviction in a space where most competitors’ calls are filled with caveats.” Investors wereespecially impressed with the Prudential analyst’s coverage of Pacific Sunwear of California, which Pakdowngraded in May. She suspected something was amiss when the Anaheim, California–based companyPage 33 of 169 2010 Factiva, Inc. All rights reserved.

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