Technology Stocks: A Stock Picker's Market?

386 views

Published on

Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
386
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
4
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Technology Stocks: A Stock Picker's Market?

  1. 1. EQUITY RESEARCHJuly 07, 2005 North America Investment Strategy & MacroEquity Derivatives Strategy Equity Derivatives StrategyMarket Commentary Ryan Renicker 1.212.526.9425Technology: A Stock-Pickers Market? rrenicke@lehman.comSector View:New: 0-Not RatedOld: 0-Not RatedInvestment conclusion During the past few months, short-dated implied correlation levels on both the Semiconductor HOLDR Trust (SMH) and the Nasdaq-100 (QQQQ) have continued to decline, and currently stand at their lowest levels in over 3 years. In our opinion, this indicates that the options market is pricing in a "stock-pickers market" for Technology stocks during the upcoming 2nd quarter earnings season. That is, we believe option market participants expect Tech stocks’ price movements to be driven primarily by idiosyncratic - as opposed to systematic - events, causing the stocks to trade relatively independent of one another. Given this collapse in correlation expectations, we believe it is an opportune time for investors to hedge Tech positions during the 2nd quarter earnings season by purchasing cheap put protection on the SMH or QQQQ (August expiry). Alternatively, investors wishing to obtain long exposure to the Tech sector heading into Q2 earnings should consider purchasing calls on the SMH or QQQQ (August expiry). An additional factor pointing to the relative cheapness of options on the SMH and the QQQQ is that both the SMH - S&P500 and the QQQQ - S&P500 implied volatility spreads are approaching multi-year lows. Figure 1: QQQQ and SMH 2-Month Implied Correlation Levels (Last 3 Years) 0.70 0.95 QQQQ 2-Month Implied Correlation 0.65 SMH 2-Month Implied Correlation 0.90 0.60 0.85 p d o la n p d o la n Q Q 2 o th Im lie C rre tio S H2 o th Im lie C rre tio 0.55 0.80 0.50 0.75 0.45 0.70 Q Q -M n M -M n 0.40 0.65 0.35 0.60 0.30 0.25 0.55 0.20 0.50 7 5 2 8 6 2 9 0 2 1 1 2 2 4 2 2 7 3 3 4 3 5 6 3 6 8 3 7 1 3 9 2 3 0 4 3 2 8 3 1 2 4 3 5 4 4 9 4 6 1 4 7 5 4 8 6 4 0 8 4 1 9 4 1 4 5 2 6 5 4 1 5 5 3 5 6 7 5 0 /0 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /3 /0 1 /1 /0 1 /2 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /2 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /3 /0 0 /1 /0 1 /2 /0 1 /0 /0 0 /2 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /2 /0 1 /0 /0 1 /1 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /2 /0 Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy.Lehman Brothers does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) ON PAGE 4 AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 5 1
  2. 2. EQUITY RESEARCH • During the past few months, 2-month implied correlation levels on both the Semiconductor HOLDR Trust (SMH) and the Nasdaq- 100 (QQQQ) have continued to decline, and currently stand at their lowest levels in over 3 years. In our opinion, this indicates that the options market is pricing in relatively high stock-specific risks (versus systematic risk) for Technology stocks during the upcoming 2nd quarter earnings season.Figure 2: QQQQ and SMH 2-Month Implied Correlation Levels (Last 3 Years) 0.70 0.95 QQQQ 2-Month Implied Correlation 0.65 SMH 2-Month Implied Correlation 0.90 0.60 0.85 QQQQ 2-Month Implied Correlation SMH 2-Month Implied Correlation 0.55 0.80 0.50 0.75 0.45 0.70 0.40 0.65 0.35 0.60 0.30 0.25 0.55 0.20 0.50 07/05/02 08/16/02 09/30/02 11/11/02 12/24/02 02/07/03 03/24/03 05/06/03 06/18/03 07/31/03 09/12/03 10/24/03 12/08/03 01/22/04 03/05/04 04/19/04 06/01/04 07/15/04 08/26/04 10/08/04 11/19/04 01/04/05 02/16/05 04/01/05 05/13/05 06/27/05Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy. • That is, we believe option market participants expect Tech stocks’ price movements to be driven primarily by idiosyncratic events, causing the stocks to trade relatively independent of one another. Thus, the options market appears to be pricing in a “stock- picker’s market” for investors in Technology stocks. (Technology accounts for 100% of the SMH and about 58% of the QQQQ). • Given this collapse in short-dated correlation expectations, we believe it is an opportune time for investors to hedge Tech positions during the 2nd quarter earnings season by purchasing cheap put protection on the SMH or QQQQ (August expiry). • Alternatively, investors wishing to obtain long exposure to the Tech sector heading into Q2 earnings should consider purchasing calls on the SMH or QQQQ (August expiry), in our opinion. 2
  3. 3. EQUITY RESEARCH • An additional factor pointing to the relative cheapness of options on the SMH and the QQQQ is that both the SMH - S&P500 and the QQQQ - S&P500 implied volatility spreads are approaching multi-year lows.Figure 3: SMH – S&P500 and QQQQ – S&P500 Implied Volatility Spreads (Last 3 Years) 45% 30% SMH vs. S&P500 2-Month Implied Volatility Spread 40% QQQQ vs. S&P500 2-Month Implied Volatility Spread 25% QQQQ - S&P500 2-Month Implied Volatility SMH - S&P500 2-Month Implied Volatility 35% 30% 20% 25% 15% 20% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% 07/05/02 08/16/02 09/30/02 11/11/02 12/24/02 02/07/03 03/24/03 05/06/03 06/18/03 07/31/03 09/12/03 10/24/03 12/08/03 01/22/04 03/05/04 04/19/04 06/01/04 07/15/04 08/26/04 10/08/04 11/19/04 01/04/05 02/16/05 04/01/05 05/13/05 06/27/05Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy. 3
  4. 4. EQUITY RESEARCHOptions are not suitable for all investors and the risks of option trading should be weighed against the potential rewards.Supporting documents that form the basis of the recommendations are available on request. Please note that the trade ideas withinthis report in no way relate to the fundamental ratings applied to European stocks by Lehman Brothers Equity Research.Analyst Certification:I, Ryan Renicker, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research Industry Note accurately reflect my personal views about any orall of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Industry Note and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Industry Note. 4
  5. 5. EQUITY RESEARCHImportant Disclosures:The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the Firm’s totalrevenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.Guide to Lehman Brothers Equity Research Rating System:Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as 1-Overweight, 2- Equal weight or 3-Underweight (seedefinitions below) relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry sector(the “sector coverage universe”). To see a list of the companies that comprise a particular sector coverage universe, please go towww.lehman.com/disclosuresIn addition to the stock rating, we provide sector views which rate the outlook for the sector coverage universe as 1-Positive, 2-Neutral or3-Negative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system.Investors should carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.Stock Rating1-Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-monthinvestment horizon.2-Equal weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a12- month investment horizon.3-Underweight - The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.RS-Rating Suspended - The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firmpolicies in certain circumstances including when Lehman Brothers is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transactioninvolving the company.Sector View1-Positive - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.2-Neutral - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.3-Negative - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.Stock Ratings From February 2001 to August 5, 2002 (sector view did not exist):This is a guide to expected total return (price performance plus dividend) relative to the total return of the stocks’ local market (i.e. the marketwhere the stock primarily trades) over the next 12 months.1-Strong Buy - expected to outperform the market by 15 or more percentage points.2-Buy - expected to outperform the market by 5-15 percentage points.3-Market Perform - expected to perform in line with the market, plus or minus 5 percentage points.4-Market Underperform - expected to underperform the market by 5-15 percentage points.5-Sell - expected to underperform the market by 15 or more percentage points.Distribution of Ratings:Lehman Brothers Global Equity Research has 1713 companies under coverage.41% have been assigned a 1-Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as Buy rating, 33% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.42% have been assigned a 2-Equal weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as Hold rating, 7% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.17% have been assigned a 3-Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as Sell rating, 83% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.This material has been prepared and/or issued by Lehman Brothers Inc., member SIPC, and/or one of its affiliates (“Lehman Brothers”) and has beenapproved by Lehman Brothers International (Europe), authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, in connection with its distribution in theEuropean Economic Area. This material is distributed in Japan by Lehman Brothers Japan Inc., and in Hong Kong by Lehman Brothers Asia Limited. Thismaterial is distributed in Australia by Lehman Brothers Australia Pty Limited, and in Singapore by Lehman Brothers Inc., Singapore Branch. This material isdistributed in Korea by Lehman Brothers International (Europe) Seoul Branch. This document is for information purposes only and it should not be regardedas an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned in it. No part of this document may be reproduced in anymanner without the written permission of Lehman Brothers. With the exception of disclosures relating to Lehman Brothers, this research report is based oncurrent public information that Lehman Brothers considers reliable, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied onas such. In the case of any disclosure to the effect that Lehman Brothers Inc. or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equitysecurities of the subject company, the computation of beneficial ownership of securities is based upon the methodology used to compute ownership underSection 13(d) of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934. In the case of any disclosure to the effect that Lehman Brothers Inc. and/or its affiliateshold a short position of at least 1% of the outstanding share capital of a particular company, such disclosure relates solely to the ordinary share capital of thecompany. Accordingly, while such calculation represents Lehman Brothers’ holdings net of any long position in the ordinary share capital of the company, suchcalculation excludes any rights or obligations that Lehman Brothers may otherwise have, or which may accrue in the future, with respect to such ordinary sharecapital. Similarly such calculation does not include any shares held or owned by Lehman Brothers where such shares are held under a wider agreement or 5
  6. 6. EQUITY RESEARCHarrangement (be it with a client or a counterparty) concerning the shares of such company (e.g. prime broking and/or stock lending activity). Any suchdisclosure represents the position of Lehman Brothers as of the last business day of the calendar month preceding the date of this report.This material is provided with the understanding that Lehman Brothers is not acting in a fiduciary capacity. Opinions expressed herein reflect the opinion ofLehman Brothers and are subject to change without notice. The products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries,and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. If an investor has any doubts about product suitability, he should consult his Lehman Brothersrepresentative. The value of and the income produced by products may fluctuate, so that an investor may get back less than he invested. Value and incomemay be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates, or other factors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. If a product isincome producing, part of the capital invested may be used to pay that income. © 2005 Lehman Brothers. All rights reserved. Additional information isavailable on request. Please contact a Lehman Brothers entity in your home jurisdiction.Lehman Brothers policy for managing conflicts of interest in connection with investment research is available at www.lehman.com/researchconflictspolicy.Ratings, earnings per share forecasts and price targets contained in the Firms equity research reports covering U.S. companies are available atwww.lehman.com/disclosures.Complete disclosure information on companies covered by Lehman Brothers Equity Research is available at www.lehman.com/disclosures. 6

×