Reviewing core futuring and scenario construction tools bob moran


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Reviewing core futuring and scenario construction tools bob moran

  1. 1. Futuring Tools and the Futures of Market ResearchRobert Moran April 19, 2012
  2. 2. It’s a VUCA World The future will be more discontinuous with the past. 3
  3. 3. Creative Disruption:The 6Ds That Will Change Commerce (and eventually MR) Disruption Ethos “Blur Group Raises $2M To Disrupt How Marketers Pick Creatives For Campaigns” Disintermediation Remember “travel agents”? “Process gatekeepers” beware. Digitization Book stores, music stores, cameras, libraries, paper maps, cash… Dematerialization Smaller products. Less material. Often shifting focus to experience around product. Democratization Crowdsourcing, crowdfunding, DEWmocracy, “Rateocracy”, customer in charge in a radically transparent world. DIY Niche products, the maker movement, and eventually 3D printing 4
  4. 4. Foresight Tools for Thinking About the Futures Futures Cone Now Potential Plausible Possible Probable Copyright 2000: Joseph Voros Preferable Potential 5
  5. 5. The Importance of STEEP in Plural Futures • Social • Technological • Economic • Ecological • Political 6
  6. 6. The Incremental Approach Alternative Future Alternative Future Future Alternative Future Alternative Today Future 7
  7. 7. The Stretch Scenario ApproachExploring futures via two greatest uncertainties Uncertainty 2 Alternative Future A Alternative Future B Uncertainty 1 Alternative Future C Alternative Future D 8
  8. 8. Putting these tools to work… 9
  9. 9. Market Research Futures Shock. A Sampler. 2011 2021 Moving Beyond the Survey 80% of global research spending is The survey will not die, but currently dedicated to quantitative, research will move beyond survey-based, research the survey to social media (ESOMAR, 2010) listening, observational and co-creative (MROCs) tools. Established competitors will struggle through this transition. Growing Emerging Markets Two thirds of all traditional marketing Research spending will shift research is conducted in the five toward the emerging economies aging industrial democracies of the and firms that have strong United States (30%), the United research capacity in the Kingdom (11%), Germany (9%), emerging economies will France (9%) and Japan (6%) grow more rapidly. (ESOMAR, 2010). “…the next decade will…mark the definitive breakthrough of the global middle class, and demand from this group will be among the crucial economic factors of world economy” – Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies 10
  10. 10. 5 MegaTrends Shaping the Futures of Our Industry • Data Abundance “Rateocracy”, social media, “lifestreaming”, IoT • Asking-Observing Shift “listening posts” and feedback loops • Democratization UGC, co-creation, predictive markets • Convergence domain, tool and data • Strategic Imperative evolving value in a data-abundant world 11
  11. 11. Abundance and the Deindustrialization of Research Function Collecting Filtering Data acquisition costs drop Looking Looking Temporal focus shifts Backward Forward Form Economies Customized of Sale Data acquisition costs drop Service Command Consultative, and Control Temporal focus shifts Learning Based Pyramid Now Future“As an industry, we’re often criticized for our lack ofinsight and an overreliance on an industrialisedview of research.“ Mike Cooke, ESOMAR: 2009 12
  12. 12. One Plausible Evolutionary Path Anticipatory Co-Creative Anticipatory Observational UGC • Focus shifts from mapping current Data Collection—Asking (Survey) opinion to anticipating Listening Neurological Behavioral future behaviors and • Collaborative alternative futures 2008- co-creation • Mass simulation • User- gaming* Face to Face Telephone Online Geomobile generated • MROC Delphi panels* • Move away • Track • CRM content from the survey neurological software • Strategic Foresight (UGC) instrument response • Big data • Agent-based as the main • Insights • fMRI • Experimental computational • Mobile surveys research vehicle communities • Face to Face • Telephone • Online surveys • Eye-tracking marketing modeling (MROCs) will surveys surveys • Prompted by • Location-based • Dramatic shift and other • Predictive markets • Geotracking dominate • Vertically declining telephone research from Intrusive, biological interrogatory • Clickstreams • Creation integrated survey participation • Augmented response research, to of “design data rates and online Reality monitoring passive, listening- communities” collection technology • “Lifestreaming” systems • Data becomes based research abundant and • Social media inexpensive research • Shift to • “Listening posts” “convenience • MROCS samples” • Text analytics • “Rateocracy” 13
  13. 13. A brief tour of MR futures… 14
  14. 14. “Any useful statement about the futures should appear to be ridiculous.” -Jim Dator 15
  15. 15. 22 Plausible Futures Scenarios
  16. 16. Socially Driven Scenarios Technology Driven Scenarios Economically Drive ScenariosThe Incredible Shrinking Survey Geo-Timed Feedback Dispersive ConvergenceDo Not Disturb Rapid In-Market Experimentation LilliputBack to the Future Iterative Insight Streaming E-AgencyWhat was privacy? Portal Power Global DepthPower to the People Let’s Play a Game Need for SpeedFrom Value to Values Limbic Space InvadersTribal Rituals Nano-Targeting AnticipationEpidemiology 17
  17. 17. Three Futures Definition Signals Co-creative design communities replace traditional market research. These are either open (and massive) or closed and proprietary. Project directors DEWmocracy, My Starbucks Idea,Power to the People become community managers and engagement HYVE’s Innovation communities becomes the core concern. , Ideascale All key consumer data is integrated on a single online interface. The portal becomes the most important “real estate” in market research. The portal provider Nunwood’s Fizz Dashboards and FizzPortal Power becomes market research’s landlord. Corporate Library, Clarabridge, , insights departments and CMOs guard these portals CRM-CEM software companies jealously. Mechanical Turk, Victors & Spoils, Market research firms are replaced by individual e-,, Angie’s List lancers. Market researchers are hired based on their online competency scores at or by their Headline: “Blur Group Raises $2M ToE-Agency Disrupt How Marketers Pick Creatives “whuffie” rating on future reputational currency sites. For Campaigns”
  18. 18. Three potential outcomes for the traditionalmarketing research industry: Transcendence Convergence Stagnation • Traditional MR repositions • Collision of marketing • Traditional marketing itself at center of wider research, management research refuses to evolve, insights industry consulting, social media preferring to stay with analytics, data mining, questioning rather than • Traditional MR absorbs and software observing tools and integrates tools and knowledge from • Produces a synthesis • Continues to execute wider industry, placing of tools and blurring tactical research projects itself at the top of of roles while wider insights the strategic insights industry passes it by value chain • Convergence is forced on traditional MR industry and adjustment is difficult 19
  19. 19. NextGen Insights Firms Willo Harness mobile (in the moment) researcho Moving from gatekeeper to guideo Make the leap from the Asking to the Observing Erao Master “listening”o Build insight communities (MROCs)o Triangulate: Pull insights from multiple data streamso Transition from projects to consultative retainerso Build ethnographic capacity at a global level for the global middle classo Master data visualizationo Leverage 24-7 global clocko Develop foresight capacity 20
  20. 20. The best way to predict the future is to make it. 21
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