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Keynote Net Games 09 - Rémi Arnaud

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Trends in 3D technologies & the impact on networked games …

Trends in 3D technologies & the impact on networked games

http://netgames2009.lip6.fr/Keynotes.htm#Arnaud


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  • Zynga Farmville, Mafia Wars
  • Transcript

    • 1. Trends in 3D technologies & the impact on networked games
      Dr. RémiARNAUDscream!point24 Nov, 2009
    • 2. Scream!point 5D technology
      http://www.youtube.com/user/screampoint
    • 3. Outline
      • Network Games Economics
      • 4. User Generated Content
      • 5. Obstacles
      • 6. Catalysts
      • 7. Our Future - Gaming in the Cloud?
    • A year ago video game sales were soaring, and some people thought it might be a "recession-proof" industry. We can't imagine anyone feels that way today.
      October 09 unit sales were down 19% according to NPD year over year. And if the industry is lucky, it will get flat to single digit growth by for the year.
    • 8. Sales down 19% year-over-year
      Subscription up 7% year-over-year
    • 9. Electronic Distribution‘free games’ effect
      # Units
      $ revenue
    • 10. The virtual goods market in the U.S. is ready to take off. Right now, the U.S. only has 28% of the total market. By 2013, the U.S. will make up 41% of the market with $2.5 billion in sales, according to research from Piper Jaffray.
    • 11. Brings New Brands, Resources To Social Gaming REDWOOD CITY, Calif., November 9, 2009 – Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) today announced it has acquired Playfish™, a leading creator of social network games. The acquisition accelerates EA’s position in social entertainment and strengthens its focus on the transition to digital and social gaming. Playfish will operate within EA Interactive, a division of EA focused on the web and on wireless. EA has acquired Playfish for approximately US$275 million in cash and approximately US$25 million in equity retention arrangements. In addition, the sellers are entitled to additional variable cash consideration, up to a maximum of US$100 million, contingent upon the achievement of certain performance milestones through December 31, 2011. “Social gaming, with its emphasis on friends and community, is seeing tremendous growth and this is the right time to invest to strengthen our participation in this space,” said Barry Cottle, Senior Vice President and General Manager of EA Interactive. “EAi has been successfully leading the charge for EA, and with the addition of proven expertise from Playfish, their broad consumer base and strong game brands, we’re moving ahead aggressively in our plans to lead in the category of cross-platform social entertainment.” 
    • 12. Jan’09 – revenues of $50 million
    • 13.
    • 14. Asia’s total annual virtual goods might be >$5 billions
      1.8 M users :: Netease’s Fantasy Westward Journey
      1.5 M users :: Giant’s Zhengtu Online
      1.2 M users :: Tencent’s Dungeon and Fighter
      1.0 M users :: Blizzard’s World of Warcarft
    • 15. Symbiosis
      Virtual Goods would not exist without Networked Games
      Networked Games are fuelled by Virtual Goods
    • 16. Mods and User Generated Content 
      Continuum of Content
      1980’s
      Personal Computers
      2000’s
      Social Networking
      1990’s
      Video game
      Dark Ages
      2010’s
      Web Centric
      2008
      Little Big Planet
      Spore
      1997
      Doom
      Open Source
      1992
      Stunt Island
      Machinima
      1999
      Counter-Strike
      Half-Life mod
      2005
      facebook
      2006
      twitter
    • 17. Game Import
      COLLADA
      Render
    • 18. Major Trends
      Social Networking
      Users increasingly use the internet for social networking, both at Home and the Enterprise
      User Generated Content
      Users gets more and more sophisticated, from sms to full 3D games
      Cheap broadband connection
      Sufficient bandwidth for interactive, online 3D experience
      Real time 3D graphics
      GPUs provide HW acceleration in most devices, including mobile phones
      Virtual Economy
      Real and Virtual economies connected
      Virtual Goods cost real money
    • 19. Obstacles
      Virtual currencies regulation
      3D and Web integration
      3D on mobile
      Content Authoring
      Virtual goods ownership
    • 20. 80% of gold farmers are based in China and generate between 200M$ - 1B$ annually
    • 21. 3D native in a browser
      • No HW accelerated 3D without a plug-in
      • 22. Plug-in installation is a huge barrier
      • 23. Flash does not have 3D acceleration
      • 24. Papervision3D Away3D opensourceactionscript software rendering solutions
      • 25. Disconnected expertises
      • 26. 3D experts do not know the web
      • 27. Web experts do not know 3D
    • 3D native in a browser
      One Standard, 2 perspectives
      • KhronosWebGL working group
      Announced SigGraph’09
      • Mozilla:
      • 28. Canvas, HTML5
      • 29. Javascriptextensions to Firefox
      • 30. Immediate mode
      • 31. O3D
      • 32. Javascript, plug-in to IE, Ff, Opera…
      • 33. Retained mode
    • 3D and connected mobile technology: Specific to device in hand
      • 3D is a power-hog
      • 34. Battery powered devices can run long with 3D
      • 35. Many incompatible SDKs
      • 36. Android, Apple, Palm SDKs
      • 37. Non standard browser
      • 38. Flash not available
      • 39. Small Screen
      • 40. Content not directly portable
      • 41. Game tailored to device
      • 42. Navispore
      • 43. Augmented reality (3DVIA)
    • Augmented Reality
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdQsS8LBxpo
    • 44. Content Authoring
      DCC tools are targeting professional users. Too expensive and complex for end users
      Game industry not focused on broader authoring needs
      Dilemma: improving authoring to pursue innovative uses of games vs. improving authoring to streamline making game content?
    • 45. Virtual goods ownership
      Can’t move virtual goods from one application to another
      Need a standard !
      DRM as existing does not work
      Need to empower end user, not block them
      Need to understand modding community
      Mod over mod over mod
      Most end users want credit, welcome copy
    • 46. Catalysts
      CPU and GPU collision
      Standards
      Public content repositories
      Tools for fun
    • 47. GPU vs. CPU Collision:
      CPU's add cores to reach GPU's parallelization
      GPU's add programmability to reach CPU's flexibility
      • Each have different priorities
      • 48. Pipeline vs. Parallel
      • 49. Graphics pipeline more predictable
      • 50. CPUs better suited to more random things
      • 51. Programmable GPU “hot”
      • 52. Both have pros and cons
      • 53. Next up?
      • 54. Hybrid chips, compute
      • 55. AMD Fusion
      • 56. Intel Larrabee
      • 57. Nvidia Fermi
      • 58. NvidiaTegra
      • 59. SoC with ARM processor
      GPU vs. CPU collisionCPUs are moving to serious multi-core architecture and GPUs are being used to do CPU work-CrunchGear August 2008
    • 60. Standards (3D)
      Content
      HW accelerated API
      Compression
      Distribution
      MPEG-4 Part 25: A graphics compression framework for XML-based scene graph formats
      BlagicaJovanova, Marius Preda and Françoise Preteux
    • 61. User Content Repositories
    • 62.
    • 63. Dassault Systèmes :: 3dvia.com
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohdYBp4xfII
    • 64. Figure Asset Pipeline Components
      Content Repositories Communities & Asset Management
      Need server side asset pipeline
    • 65. Tools for fun
      • Poster Child:
      • 66. Spore Creature Editor
      • 67. Bastard Step Children:
      • 68. Little Big Planet
      • 69. Spore Adventure Creator
      • 70. Roblox
      • 71. Second Life editor (fun?)
      • 72. SketchUp (fun?)
      • 73. Web based tools for fun
      • 74. Facebook apps
      • 75. Zynga (Mafia Wars,YoVille,
      FarmVille, etc.…)
      • Twitpic / twitter
    • Our Future - Gaming in the Cloud?
      OnLive
      Gaikai