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The Fall of Digital

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"The fall of digital" as presented at Webuquerque, November 2010. ...

"The fall of digital" as presented at Webuquerque, November 2010.

"For the past 15 years, the business, marketing and technology communities have been turned upside down with the mass adoption of the internet. Millions have been made and lost. Companies founded and companies gone broke. Business as usual has been changed forever, but the change isn't over yet.

As the realities of the new connected world take hold, the architects of that world (the web developers and digital agencies) may be the ones who pay. How are the trends of today going to affect the professionals that set the ball in motion? That's what we will talk about in The Fall of Digital."

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  • 1. 15 years ago something changed
  • 2. It was new
  • 3. It was going to change business
  • 4. It was going to change society
  • 5. It was going to change the world
  • 6. Internet
  • 7. It wasn't like anything that came before it
  • 8. It wasn't like TV
  • 9. It wasn't like Radio
  • 10. It wasn't like Print
  • 11. PR people didn't know what to do with it
  • 12. Advertising people didn't know what to do with it http://www.flickr.com/photos/finnurmalmquist/3207097477/
  • 13. IT people & scientists almost knew what to do with it
  • 14. So we had to have invent new professionals
  • 15. The great equalizer
  • 16. It would democratize everything
  • 17. Small shops and big shops could compete equally
  • 18. Location didn't matter anymore
  • 19. It was going to change everything
  • 20. The industry got hot
  • 21. New digital firms were born
  • 22. Popping up all over the place
  • 23. ...trying to cut into where business was currently spending its money
  • 24. PR Firms Ad Firms
  • 25. Ad Firm + WWW PR Firm + WWW IT Firm + WWW
  • 26. they hired and acquired to offer the services to clients
  • 27. With these new capabilities they pushed it on every client http://www.flickr.com/photos/deadhorse/79236362/
  • 28. The Media started talking about how digital firms are the wave of the future
  • 29. Talk of "Digital" was everywhere
  • 30. Investors bought anything with a .com in it
  • 31. Millions were made
  • 32. ...then the bubble burst
  • 33. and Millions where lost
  • 34. Everyone realized that the internet was not magic
  • 35. it wasn't an ATM
  • 36. Everyone knew it was a big deal they just weren't sure how anymore.
  • 37. So what was it?
  • 38. Depends on who you ask http://www.flickr.com/photos/pitadel/4951801589/
  • 39. democratize media.
  • 40. Anyone can learn how to publish online
  • 41. Then the industry started to mature http://www.flickr.com/photos/juhansonin/4137915935/
  • 42. We have websites now what
  • 43. Email marketing got big
  • 44. it got a lot of hype
  • 45. the snake oil salesmen moved in
  • 46. and then it became a profession
  • 47. SEO got big
  • 48. it got a lot of hype
  • 49. the snake oil salesmen moved in
  • 50. and then it became a profession
  • 51. Affiliate marketing got big
  • 52. it got a lot of hype
  • 53. the snake oil salesmen moved in
  • 54. and then it became a profession
  • 55. Results and outcomes
  • 56. Who do you believe?
  • 57. "Its all about other sites"
  • 58. "Its all about links"
  • 59. "its all about what your website does"
  • 60. Who do you believe?
  • 61. In 1950 if you needed a lawyer you got a lawyer
  • 62. litigation hr patents trademark protection
  • 63. PPC Email Social Media SEO UX / UI designer Developer
  • 64. All these people cost money
  • 65. ty no 12 ou Its ors n hb eig old ye ar
  • 66. If you don't have a multi-million dollar budget
  • 67. which most companies don't
  • 68. what do you get and what do you leave?
  • 69. and how do you even know the difference
  • 70. Who do you listen to?
  • 71. confusion
  • 72. ? x
  • 73. For technical people it was all about mashups, feeds and ajax
  • 74. For nontechnical people it was community, sharing and publishing
  • 75. It was the wave of the future
  • 76. It was going to change business
  • 77. It was going to change society
  • 78. It was going to change the world
  • 79. Didn't we hear this already?
  • 80. the operating system that runs Farmville © ® TM
  • 81. http://www.flickr.com/photos/15938251@N08/2174292717/ the central place for storing your photos of the party where you got too drunk to stand up
  • 82. then got fired for it
  • 83. Its easy to see how obvious things we're in hind site
  • 84. the rise of digital was the same shiny object syndrome as everything media channel before it
  • 85. Radio was supposed to destroy print
  • 86. TV was supposed to render Radio obsolete
  • 87. The internet was supposed to kill TV
  • 88. It didn't happen
  • 89. It’s not going to happen
  • 90. You had to be a technician to make radio work
  • 91. then the amateurs showed up with HAM radios
  • 92. Then the industry matured and professions split Production Director Broadcast Engineers Content Producers Recording Engineers Etc... Etc... Etc...
  • 93. TV followed the same path
  • 94. Now you can get your TV commercials produced for free by the cable company
  • 95. ...and anyone can buy a camera http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:JVC_Camcorder.jpg
  • 96. The internet did not kill TV
  • 97. People watch 20% more TV now than they did 20 years ago (before the internet got popular) http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/media_entertainment/average-tv-viewing-for-2008-09-tv-season-at-all-time-high/
  • 98. Its the same old story The internet is one more channel
  • 99. Except... it isn't single purpose
  • 100. you watch tv
  • 101. you listen to the radio
  • 102. you read print
  • 103. watch, listen, read, publish, build and socialize online
  • 104. More complexity means more areas of specialization
  • 105. We are on the same track it will just take longer to settle down
  • 106. Web 2.0 was just as obvious
  • 107. How do companies pick a service provider?
  • 108. √ Interview many sources √ Research their options √ Compare their options
  • 109. NO.
  • 110. sure... some do
  • 111. most don’t
  • 112. Most businesses in this country are small businesses
  • 113. AND THEY ARE BUSY
  • 114. √ Interview many sources - Don't know who to ask √ Research their options - Don't know who to believe √ Compare their options - Can't tell the difference
  • 115. ...so they ask a friend
  • 116. They “activate” their social network
  • 117. its how humans are
  • 118. the social web didn't invent this
  • 119. any entrepreneur that operated before the internet can tell you that
  • 120. Its not what you know its who you know
  • 121. Do You Friends Know?
  • 122. "Fred did my website and its CRUD based, totally ReSTful and degrades gracefully"
  • 123. "Oh yea, I need a cruddy degrading website"
  • 124. So Fred gets called.
  • 125. What if Fred is a neighbors 12 year old?
  • 126. What if Fred sucks?
  • 127. How can the client tell?
  • 128. What if...
  • 129. Doesn't have good network - asocial
  • 130. Doesn't get a response from their network
  • 131. Doesn't get a response from their network Bad experiences
  • 132. Doesn't get a response from their network Bad experiences Just don't know
  • 133. Doesn't get a response from their network Bad experiences Just don't know The guy that did their website is a veterinary assistant now
  • 134. Doesn't get a good vibe from their recommended service provider
  • 135. They just don't jive
  • 136. Now what do they do?
  • 137. Punch the Monkey Win an MP3 Player is pl ay D They see a banner ad
  • 138. They follow an affiliate link
  • 139. They see a TV commercial
  • 140. They attend a webinar
  • 141. They rely on the branding they have been exposed to
  • 142. They do what they have always done Rely on Traditional Channels
  • 143. Digital is a traditional channel
  • 144. So did the social web destroy the traditional web?
  • 145. Did web 2.0 make web 1.0 obsolete?
  • 146. No.
  • 147. You will lose half your audience.
  • 148. The social web is just another channel
  • 149. its getting a lot of hype
  • 150. the snake oil salesmen have moved in
  • 151. A new profession is being born
  • 152. Another cog in the marketing wheel
  • 153. Integration
  • 154. Increased sales and won awards
  • 155. April 1, 1982
  • 156. Most people have no idea the social part ever happened - they just saw the TV commercial
  • 157. The latest "Super Social Media Success" came from a traditional agency
  • 158. So where are companies looking for Digital and Social Media help?
  • 159. PR Firms Direct Marketing Firms
  • 160. So what does it all mean?
  • 161. No one owns the space.
  • 162. You don’t need to "Know" web development
  • 163. We don’t need to “Know” web code to sell online
  • 164. You don’t need to “Know” technology to promote a business
  • 165. So what about all the digital folks that got us here?
  • 166. Have we made a world where the world doesn't need us?
  • 167. For most organizations technical expertise takes a back seat to strategy http://www.flickr.com/photos/fredspoonphotos/2659621760/
  • 168. and a strong strategy can come from anywhere
  • 169. Our disciplines are even cannibalizing themselves
  • 170. 5 years ago PPC and SEO was the hot topic
  • 171. PPC + SE0 = Traffic
  • 172. We send out tweets to our friends to find what we want instead of using a search engine
  • 173. Or do we?
  • 174. Yes 25 We trust the recommendations of friends No 75
  • 175. 2 years ago Now Yes 25 Yes 45 No 75 No 55
  • 176. Whats a friend anymore?
  • 177. A twitter follower?
  • 178. A Facebook friend?
  • 179. Friend doesn't mean what it used to.
  • 180. Of course, our trust isn't just down from our friends - its down on everything
  • 181. So what doest that mean?
  • 182. Where do we go for information?
  • 183. How do organizations spread their message and engage with audiences?
  • 184. ?
  • 185. There is no one clear answer
  • 186. Thats the point
  • 187. It comes down to strategy
  • 188. It comes down to your market
  • 189. Sometimes its the web
  • 190. Sometimes it isn't
  • 191. Path of Least Resistance
  • 192. If its TV, then they will use TV
  • 193. If its Print, the'll use print
  • 194. If its PPC, SEO, Social, Consumer Generated or direct - they will do that
  • 195. And if they do enough of it, they will just hire the people with the expertise to do it
  • 196. But they won't be called "digital"
  • 197. Digital will be absorbed into other disciplines
  • 198. Social Media expert will cease to be a phrase and a job title will take its place
  • 199. Our innovations will become a list of best practices
  • 200. Execution & Technical creativity knowhow
  • 201. The promise of the internet was to share and democratize knowledge
  • 202. <!DOCTYPE html > <html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> <head> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" /> <meta name="keywords" content="Web Design, Graphic Design, Marketing, Digital Marketing, Web Developer, Creative" /> <meta name="description" content="Reid Givens - Digital Marketing specialist in Albuquerque New Mexico focusing on Web Development, Design," /> <title>Reid Givens - Digital Marketing, Advertising and Web Development</title> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="style.css" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="thickbox.css" /> <script type="text/javascript" src="javascripts/jquery-1.3.2.min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="javascripts/jquery-ui-1.7.1.all.min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="javascripts/jquery.livequery.min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="javascripts/jquery.easing.1.3.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="javascripts/jquery.easing.compatibility.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="javascripts/jquery.cycle.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="javascripts/thickbox.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> Our trade knowledge // lets get this party started ---------------------------------------------- // $(document).ready(function(){ // connect $('#connect dl.icons').hover(function(){ is no exception $(this).css('background','#444'); },function(){ $(this).css('background','none'); $('#connect dl.icons dd').hide(); }); $('#connect dl.icons dt').hover(function(){ // turn off all showing dd $('#connect dl.icons dd').hide(); // get the current class var channel = $(this).attr('class'); // change the background of this class $(this).css('background', '#aaa'); // show the right dd for this dt $('#connect dl.icons dd.' + channel).show(); // call ga pageTracker._trackEvent("Connect", channel); }, function(){ // turn off the background color $('#connect dl.icons dt').css('background','none'); });
  • 203. But we are not going anywhere
  • 204. Our industry is maturing and we are figuring it all out http://www.flickr.com/photos/juhansonin/4137915935/
  • 205. The hot thing of today...
  • 206. will be the traditional, boring “plain jane” job title of tomorrow
  • 207. The hierarchy of web folks will become established and the pecking order will be set
  • 208. But that doesn't mean that we will all be devalued
  • 209. This setup give us the ability to have stars
  • 210. The internet didn't get rid of the media gatekeepers like it was supposed to
  • 211. It just created new ones
  • 212. and created niches for stars to rise
  • 213. we have more gatekeepers, each with a little less power over the masses, but a great deal over their niches
  • 214. So what do we do
  • 215. We participate
  • 216. Engage with organizations that are furthering our industry
  • 217. Engage with other organizations that are not in our industry, to see how we can help them
  • 218. Study the cycles that have come before to find ways to integrate, understand and innovate in our turf
  • 219. Shape the future of our craft
  • 220. Realize that we are all part of a bigger picture and work to find the best places for our strengths
  • 221. Create specialties & work to increase our strengths instead of waisting time trying to be a jack of all trades
  • 222. Become leaders for the field that is now ours
  • 223. We are the ambassadors and creators of the most complex and exciting channel in the history of man kind.
  • 224. We realize it is just one channel out of many, but we’ll take the lead of it and own it
  • 225. its our baby
  • 226. Create the future we want before someone else does it for us