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Microsoft Power Point Megatrends Asia Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Innovation in Healthcare:The Changing Landscape Reenita Das Senior VP, Healthcare and Life Sciences AP and LATAM “We Accelerate Growth” © 2011 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved
  • 2. Its not about how big you are but how fast and quick you are… Marketing • Mega trends are global, sustained and macro R&D economic forces that impact Innovation Scouting Budget business, economy, society, Spending cultures and personal lives • These mega trends is expected to change the way an organization functions, which need to be used in the Product strategic planning of these Technology key organizational functions. Planning & Planning Development Source: Frost & Sullivan 2
  • 3. Growing Demand for Healthcare Services will Need to be Reciprocated withIncreased Supply Resulting in Growth Opportunities Healthcare Market Dynamics Healthcare Market Challenges • Increase in population, aging Changing • Rural to urban migration Demographics • 50% of the world us under 25 years • Increase in life style diseasesChanging Disease • Increase in chronic diseases Patterns • Earlier diagnosis- treating begins at 30 rather than 60 • Cost • Consumer expectations toward s government • AccessPolitical Importance • Private public partnerships • Emergence of NGOs and patient groups: Important stakeholder • Quality • Change in value system: health is valued more • InteroperabilityChanging Consumer • Healthcare consumerism: consumers are making decisions about Behaviour their own care needs • Medical Tourism Technological • Cheaper drugs, Cheaper diagnostics Advances • Personalization, genomics, robotics • New treatments are becoming very expensive • Generics, biosiimilars as options Cost Pressures • Shift to outpatient care Executive Summary 3
  • 4. Healthcare Industry EcosystemTop Predictions for 2020 1. Hospitals go Virtual: Development of community based Care Healthcare Delivery Partners 2. Theragnostics - Genome sequencing, Personalized Medicines & Gene Therapy, Stem Pharmaceutical cells enabled medical devices Government & Biotech COs 3. Living by Numbers: Tracking 24/7/365 Wireless Medicine: Just in time monitoring: Mobile phones as a via media Consumers MedTech COs 4. Robotics- Robo surgeries 4PS will drive the Healthcare Industry 5. Predictive, Preventive, Personalized, Participatory, Rejuvenation Medicine: Average age is 110 by 2040 6. Emergence of SilverTechnology will be the leading Change services Information Population: lifestyle products, communities and Enabler Outsourcing Health Partners Insurance COs (CRO,CMO) 7. Holistic medicine: Alternative therapies become recognized to work along side 8. Non healthcare companies entering into this space- Apple, Nike, real estate, fashion Traditional / ICT COs Alternative 9. Incentives for maintaining better health. Creating the value of maintaining good health Medicines Other Industries (Chemicals, Consumers) 10. Collaboration to create innovation and agility Source: Frost & Sullivan 4
  • 5. ECONOMY
  • 6. APAC Healthcare Expenditure will increase 151% by 2020, while countries with the lowest projected growth rate will be UK, Italy, & Germany South Korea $127 billion CAGR 5.5% Japan USA $563 billion $3922 billion China CAGR 3.0% CAGR 4.6% $1446 billion CAGR 15.5% Hong Kong $20 billion CAGR 3.2% India Taiwan $331 billion $65 billion CAGR 14.5% CAGR 7.8% Indonesia Vietnam $47 billion $31 billion CAGR 8.1% CAGR 14.8% Malaysia Philippines $25 billion ThailandAPAC $26 billion $25 billion$2927 billion CAGR 8.4% CAGR 11.5% CAGR 8.4%151% increase 2010-2020CAGR 9.2% Singapore $23 billionG7 CAGR 9.6%$6147 billion50% increase 2010-2020CAGR 4.0% Australia $198 billionBRIC CAGR 3.0%$1958 billion212% increase 2010-2020CAGR 12.1% 6
  • 7. Healthcare Expenditure in China, India, and Vietnam will grow the fastest within APAC over the next 10 years Common Drivers: expansion of middle class, public private partnerships, rising chronic disease burden, aging populace Drivers Drivers •HC expenditure as % of GDP: rise Drivers •Will become diabetes capital of the from 5.2% to 8% •Disposable income rising: reach $6 world in terms of disease burden •Influx of diagnostic equipment and billion by 2014 •Participation of foreign & non-HC private hospital •HC privatization & govt plans will lead companies in HC delivery •Expansion of eye care hospitals & to more private & public hospitals •2020 HC plan: universal HC access centers due to domestic & foreign •Urbanization growing by 3.3% per year •Urbanization will create super cities: concentration of high consumption interest China Healthcare Expenditure India Healthcare Expenditure Vietnam Healthcare Expenditure ($ Bn) ($ Bn) ($ Bn) 35.01200.0 350.0 30.01000.0 CAGR: 15.5% 300.0 250.0 25.0 800.0 200.0 20.0 600.0 150.0 15.0 100.0 10.0 400.0 50.0 5.0 200.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Restraints Restraints Restraints • Approx. 89% of population lacks HC • Approx. 66% of population lives in • Majority of population still lives in rural access rural areas, lacks HC access areas—far below OECD average for HC • Dearth of primary care physicians • HC quality and infrastructure still low infrastructure & resources • Low implementation of IP protection quality with outdated equipment could limit pharma & biotech industry • Majority of health consultation are paid investment out-of-pocket 7
  • 8. Middle Class Will Account for 52% of Global Population in 2020 65% Will Be From Africa, China and India Percent of Global Global Income Pyramid, 2010 and 2020 Middle Class Across Regions in 2020 Africa $30,000 India ME Rest of $6,000 Asia LA CEE 2010 2020 ChinaNote: Middle Class is defined as people with Incomes between $6,000 and $30,000. However, this definition differs marginally by country. 8
  • 9. Urbanization Adds to the Increased Burden of Chronic Diseases • Increased urbanization has gone hand in hand with the increase in both the incidence and prevalence of noncommunicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases, cancers, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases) • Changes in diets (tied to the availability and increased mass marketing of packaged foods and junk foods) and physical inactivity contribute to this higher rate of “lifestyle diseases” among urban populationsAccording to the WHO• One in three urban dwellers lives in slums, or a total of 1 billion people worldwide• Urban air pollution kills around 1.2 million people each year around the world, mainly due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.• Tuberculosis (TB) incidence is much higher in big cities. In New York City, TB incidence is four times the national average. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 83% of people with TB live in cities. (WHO) 9
  • 10. APAC will have the greatest number of Chronic Disease Deaths by 2020 APAC Healthcare Expenditure Breakdown (%)100% •By 2020, the number of chronic disease deaths in APAC 90% 21 will increase by 20% to 25 million 27 33 80% •Top 4 causes of chronic disease death: cardiovascular 70% disease, cancer, diabetes, respiratory disease 60% Monitor •By 2020, cancer incidence rates are projected to 50% Treat increase to 7.1 million diagnoses per year with lung, 40% 73 65 Diagnose 56 breast, & colon cancers diagnosed most often 30% Predict •By 2030, 3 billion people in APAC will have diabetes, 20% due to unhealthy diet, sedentary lifestyles, and 10% increased urbanization 7 9 5 1 2 0% 2010 2015 2020 APAC Cancer Incidence Rate APAC Diabetes Prevalence (Mn people per year) (Bn people) 8.0 7.1 3.5 3.0 7.0 3.0 6.0 2.5 2.3 5.0 4.1 2.0 4.0 1.5 3.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 2008 2020 2010 2030 Source: UN, WHO, International Diabetes Foundation, Frost & Sullivan 10
  • 11. NEW BUSINESS MODELS
  • 12. The times they are changing... And the golden goose is no longer BIG PHARMAGrowing Demand for Healthcare Services will Need to be Reciprocated withIncreased Supply Resulting in (biologics, poly pills (finished at • More complex manufacturing pharmacy or point of care) Growth OpportunitiesNew Product Types • Different supply chains for different products • Shorter product lifecyclesLive Licensing: No • Incremental launch of new medicines (conditional approval • New Patient interface more big bang • Ability to scale up and down quickly Launch • Step changes in revenue curve technologies • Greater Collaboration: Integrated supplyIncreased emphasis • Expansion into health management services chain:, shared • Leaner and more adaptable cost structure that preserves gross on outcomes margins services, collaboration to cut kilometers • Blurring boundaries between primary and acute care New Models of • Much wider distribution: Community based system- distribution tohealthcare delivery many more locations • Demand driven manufacturing and distribution (e prescriptions) • More emphasis on ecofriendly processes Environmental • Water is the new gold pressures • Relocation of plant to less vulnerable regions 12
  • 13. New Business Models of the Future: “Value for Many”, “ReverseInnovation”... “Value for Many” Aravind Eye Hospital: Conducts Tata Nano: The People’s Car 286,000 Assembly-Line type Will Replace “Value At Low Price (Rs 1 Lakh or Cataract Operations per year €1,600) for Money” Grameen Bank: Microfinance EChoupal Initiative by ITC: Bank for the 8.34 Million Leveraging Internet to Borrowers in Bangladesh (97% Empower 4 Million Farmers Women) Ford Business Model 13
  • 14. Innovation in Hospital Business Models General Hospital Focused Specialized Hospital Value Proposition: Value Proposition: Don’t know what’s wrong? Need care for a specific condition? – We can address any problem you bring – Specialists, experience, world-class facilities • Trends towards specialized care delivery around specific therapeutic areas (targeted service lines, etc.) • Emergence of "medical cities", in the Middle East, India, APAC • Specialized facilities tied to development of medical tourism in some countries 14
  • 15. Virtual Hospitals: Shifting the Financial Gravity of the System100% Healthy, Independent Living Healthy, Independent Living Community Clinic Community Clinic HOME Chronic Disease Chronic Disease CARE Management Management Doctor’s Office Doctor’s Office Quality of life Assisted Living Assisted Living RESIDENTIAL Specialty Clinic Specialty Clinic CARE Skilled Nursing Skilled Nursing Facility Facility Community ACUTE Community Hospital Hospital CARE ICU ICU 0% $1 $10 $100 $1,000 $10,000 Cost of care per day 15
  • 16. Healthcare Avatars DEFINITION PURPOSE•Computational 3D models: virtual patients •Use patient genome & physiology to tailor drug therapy•Software agent: pocket doctor or physician assistant •Software that can answer simple queries, give drug•Healthcare supercomputer: next-gen diagnostician reminders & results of medical tests•Combination of virtual technology, mathematical •Computer assisted diagnostics (CAD) in hospitalsmodeling, patient records, & healthcare databases •Training tool for health professionals & students ADVANTAGES IMPLICATIONS•Cut down on time spent on routine questions to focus on •Computers eventually replace GPs in diagnosis viatreatment evidence-based medicine•Reduce chances of misdiagnosis •Doctors provide personalized therapy & treatment•Schools & hospitals save on training costs regimen based on genetically identical virtual patient•Easier to simulate & prepare for emergencies & epidemics •Virtual therapy (cybertherapy) to help psychologists•User-friendly & visual method to navigate patient records treat phobias, PTSD, anxiety via simulations 16
  • 17. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
  • 18. mHealth: The Gold Rush Mobile Health Remote Patient Consumer Health Monitoring EHR/PHR Telemedicine 18
  • 19. mHealth Consumer Devices and Services EcosystemThe mHealth Consumer Devices and Services value chain is complex, as new emerging software and connected-device innovationsare continually being introduced. The market is comprised of combinations of application developers, app stores/ platformproviders, device manufacturers (who embed wireless modules), new business model participants (pharma, payers, non-traditional),and wireless service providers.mHealth application growth is dependent on increasing smartphone penetration, growing the app developer ecosystem, andsubscriber growth. • Consumer Paid App • Wireless Service Store Downloads Providers i.e.: Fitness, Wellness, ie: Billing, Bandwidth, Although the apps store Reference, Medical/ Support, etc market can be sized and Healthcare Services growth can accurately be determined, emerging consumer mHealth devices • Application • Application • Platform are too nascent to forecast. Developers Store Providers Providers Frost & Sullivan believes consumer health devices may follow the pattern of netbooks from 2006-2012; with no measurable market • New Business Model • Device size, but a CAGR over 150% Manufacturers Participants from 2009-2014. i.e.: Canes, i.e.: Payer Supported, Pharma Glucometers, Supported GlowCaps, etc 19
  • 20. Apps are the main drivers of Consumer mHealth revenuesAndroid applications will surpass Apple in 2014, with Android having the largest storefront. Application Storefronts - App Count Forecast (2009 - 2014) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 Total Applications 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 iPhone OS 150,998 185,275 245,100 311,203 389,844 486,840 Android 22,155 63,186 139,388 248,669 358,730 487,155 Symbian 19,133 23,323 28,757 35,113 42,627 51,272 BlackBerry 18,326 22,717 28,805 36,035 44,828 55,138 Palm 8,657 10,856 12,767 14,962 17,431 20,203 Windows Mobile 25,898 30,896 37,601 44,557 52,221 60,994 20
  • 21. 10 Targets for Wireless MedicineDisease No. Affected Wireless SolutionsAlzeimers 5M Vital signs, location, activity, balanceAsthma 23 M Air quality, oximetry, pollen countBreast cancer 3M Ultrasound self exam , webCOPD 10 M RR, FEV1, Air quality, oximetryDepression 22 M Med Compliance, Activity, CommunicationDiabetes 24 M Glucose, Hemoglobin AICHeart Failure 5M Cardiac pressure, weight, BP, fluid statusHypertension 74 M Continuous BP, Med ComplianceObesity 80 M Smart scales, Glucose, Calorie in/out,Sleep Disorders 40 M Sleep phases, quality, apnea, vital signs 21
  • 22. GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
  • 23. Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers in 2020 Russia: Poland: $7.0 Trillion $650 Billion Turkey: $790 Billion China: $8.0 Trillion Egypt: $490 Billion Vietnam: India: $175 Billion Mexico: $1.5 Trillion $4.5 Trillion The Philippines: $250 Billion Brazil: $2.7 Trillion Indonesia: South Africa: $800 Billion $556 Billion BRIC CountriesNote: The figure denotes GDP at market prices Next Game Changers include: Mexico, Argentina, Poland, Egypt, South Africa, Turkey, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam 23
  • 24. APAC Growth Engines: Healthcare Investments in Japan,Australia, Hong Kong, & South Korea Advanced Evidenced based diagnostics to catch medicine & disease early bundled products Mobile healthcare to manage chronic disease Integrated Healthcare IT Japan, Australia, (computer assisted diagnostics, pocket Hong Kong, doctor) South Korea Heatlhcare managment: pharma & payers & providers collaborate Geriatric medicine & nursing care Nutraceuticals & wellness for disease prevention 24
  • 25. APAC Growth Engines: Healthcare Investments in India, China,Taiwan, Malaysia, & Singapore Private health providers & insurers due to Specialized hospitals expanding middle class based on therapeutic area for medical tourism India, China, Medical Taiwan, Chronic disease manpower & drugs for rapid training Malaysia, increase in burden Singapore Medical devices & Telemedicine to equipment due to reach rural increased health areas, Mobile demand health 25
  • 26. APAC Growth Engines: Healthcare Investments in Vietnam,Philippines, Thailand, & Indonesia OTC drugs due to reliance on self-medication Primary HC & checkups due to increased chronic disease awareness Vietnam, Low cost medical Philippines, devices (reverse Thailand, innovation) Indonesia HC infrastructure for rural areas Private healthcare delivery & public private partnerships 26
  • 27. What Will the Future Look Like? “More miles for staying healthy”Healthcare increasingly data driven and customizedHealthcare more like other service industriesGlobalized care deliveryNew care models focused on collaboration, informationexchange/awareness, achieving health outcomes, especiallywith chronic disease careIncreased development of standards of care and incentivesto adopt themGreater need to document process of care and documentoutcomes Tracking of care, resultsIncreased patient empowerment to understand and managedisease via remote monitoring and mobile appsDeclining influence of clinical decision makersMore “generics” – technologies providing same value atlower price, stripped down feature setsMove away from fee-for-service to bundled payments based on quality of care Increased useof analytics, care protocols 27
  • 28. Frost & SullivanAn Active Contributor to Global HC Market Development Comprehensive Supply-side Analysis Recognizing Best Practices Strategic Expert Analysis Hosting Robust Industry End-user Thought Forums Analysis Leadership 28
  • 29. Thank You Reenita DasSVP Healthcarerdas@frost.com 29