ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010               Global trends in solar PV markets and policies        Renewable Energ...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010                               “global warming                               alarmis...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Solar is the unlimited energy potential – PV, solar thermal and CSPwill play a criti...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010The Asian and Pacific region is rich in solar power potential                       ...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Current performance and price of different PV moduletechnologies *
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Wind and PV equipment show significant cost reductions
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010The major share of the estimated 45% increase in world energydemand by 2030 will tak...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010The estimated €6 trillion investment in Asian energy infrastructurewill primarily go...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Many countries already recognize the importance of solar energy    •    China:      ...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Global PV market is still Europe driven – with 22.9GW globalinstalled capacity in 20...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Asia could account for 1/3 of the global PV market by 2013,resulting in 6000MW insta...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010A handful of countries with strong policy regimes account for 80%of global installed...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010There was a 30-fold increase of worldwide grid-connected PVPower within the last 8 y...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Feed-in tariffs are the main regulatory driver for RE in EU
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010ROCs, which form the basis for UK’s RE support, are supplementedby PV FiT
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Thanks to FiT, Germany overachieved its 2010 RES target (12.5%)in 2007
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Overinflated FiT can cause unexpected growth, as seen in Spain
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Change to FiTs have a major market impact
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Investors ask for attractive profit margins and fair marketconditions
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Global renewable production is expected to double every decade
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Current technologies will co-exist with emerging technologies andnovel concepts     ...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010There will be a shift from residential to large-scale PV applicationover time       ...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Electricity from CSP plants as shares of total electricityconsumption
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010DESERTEC will satisfy a substantial part of the energy needs of theMiddle East and N...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Energy demand in the ASEAN-6 countries more than doubled from1990 to 2007
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010The RE technologies with the potential to make major contributionin the medium term ...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Technical/infrastructure barriers (including grid-related barriers)rank highest in o...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Solar Outlook    • The global solar market has significant momentum, and is not tied...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010REEEP is a vehicle to provide necessary support for REand EE market acceleration    ...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010                        Regional Secretariats delivering value
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010REEEP is technology neutral, but sees PV and solar thermal as keyenergy technologies...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010 Provision of sustainable lighting through microfinance
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010REEEP projects in the Pacific region
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010REEEP tools                               www.reegle.info search engine             ...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010thank you
ATRAA 2010 Alice Springs, 6 August 2010                                REEEPquestions?                      Eva Oberender ...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010News on Solar Power    •     Australia plans to invest  $1.6 billion in solar techno...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010China is expected unveil feed in tariff for solar PV which could fallbetween US$0.16...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010India has announced the “Solar India” plan on December 1st 2009with estimated costs ...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Renewable Energy is critical for energy security and economicgrowth, particularly fo...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Islands are becoming leaders in Renewable Energy                                   T...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010  Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership    an international partnership...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010 REEEP’s focus facilitating the development of market conditions for the accelerated...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010REEEP partners- businesses- G8 countries- developing  countries- NGOs               ...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010                        Regional Secretariats delivering value
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010  REEEP’s goals:    increase the sustainability of demand and supply side    of ener...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010In 130 projects REEEP has provided support to governments andprivate sector for RE a...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Implementation Support of Brazil Grid-Connected SolarPhotovoltaic Roofs Programme   ...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Promotion of Solar Water Heating in Uganda                                •   Aim: U...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Commercialization of Large Scale Solar Water Heating Systems inSouth Africa         ...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Promoting Low-Energy Use Building Programmes in China                               ...
ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Pacific Micro Energy Service Companies (PMESCOs) on the SolomonIslands and in Kiriba...
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Global trends in solar PV markets and policies

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Global trends in solar PV markets and policies, Eva OberenderRegional Director REEEP South East Asia & Pacific, ATRAA 2010

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Global trends in solar PV markets and policies

  1. 1. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010 Global trends in solar PV markets and policies Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP) ATRAA 2010 Eva Oberender Alice Springs, Australia Regional Director 6 August 2010 REEEP South East Asia & Pacific
  2. 2. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
  3. 3. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
  4. 4. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
  5. 5. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
  6. 6. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010 “global warming alarmism is challenging our freedom” “leave it to the market – market forces will determine what we should do” “environmentalists are only attempting to limit our democratic liberties”
  7. 7. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
  8. 8. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
  9. 9. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Solar is the unlimited energy potential – PV, solar thermal and CSPwill play a critical role in future energy mix
  10. 10. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010The Asian and Pacific region is rich in solar power potential Source: http://www.meteonorm.com
  11. 11. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Current performance and price of different PV moduletechnologies *
  12. 12. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Wind and PV equipment show significant cost reductions
  13. 13. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010The major share of the estimated 45% increase in world energydemand by 2030 will take place in Asia Source: World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA
  14. 14. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010The estimated €6 trillion investment in Asian energy infrastructurewill primarily go into fossil fuels based projects TWh 4 000 Geothermal, tide and wave Solar 3 500 Biomass Wind 3 000 Hydro 2 500 Nuclear Fossil fuels 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 2006‐2015 2015‐2030 At this stage solar is estimated to account only for ~70TWh of energy infrastructure  investments up to 2030. Source: World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA
  15. 15. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Many countries already recognize the importance of solar energy • China: – Has rolled out two solar programs to date • a rooftop solar subsidy of 20 RMB/Wp for systems >50kWp • Golden Sun Program which provides a rebate for systems >300 KW (50%  for on grid and 70% for off grid) – a feed in tariff for solar PV, US$0.20 per kilowatt hour of electricity • India: – Launched generation based incentive with the target of 50MW solar power • Feed‐in tariff for grid connected PV: 12Rs/kWh • Feed‐in tariff for grid connected solar thermal: 10Rs/kWh  – The new “Solar India” plan aims to have 20,000 MW of PV and solar thermal  by 2020
  16. 16. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Global PV market is still Europe driven – with 22.9GW globalinstalled capacity in 2009, PV accounts currently only for 0.2% ofglobal electricity production
  17. 17. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Asia could account for 1/3 of the global PV market by 2013,resulting in 6000MW installed capacity Source: EPIA - http://www.epia.org/policy-driven-scenario
  18. 18. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010A handful of countries with strong policy regimes account for 80%of global installed PV capacity; new countries have emerged asimportant players in the last few years. Source: IEA 2010
  19. 19. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010There was a 30-fold increase of worldwide grid-connected PVPower within the last 8 years The PV market has experienced rapid growth, with an average of annual growth rate of 40% Source: IEA PVPS
  20. 20. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Feed-in tariffs are the main regulatory driver for RE in EU
  21. 21. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010ROCs, which form the basis for UK’s RE support, are supplementedby PV FiT
  22. 22. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Thanks to FiT, Germany overachieved its 2010 RES target (12.5%)in 2007
  23. 23. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Overinflated FiT can cause unexpected growth, as seen in Spain
  24. 24. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Change to FiTs have a major market impact
  25. 25. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Investors ask for attractive profit margins and fair marketconditions
  26. 26. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Global renewable production is expected to double every decade
  27. 27. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Current technologies will co-exist with emerging technologies andnovel concepts Source: IEA 2010
  28. 28. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010There will be a shift from residential to large-scale PV applicationover time Source: IEA 2010
  29. 29. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
  30. 30. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Electricity from CSP plants as shares of total electricityconsumption
  31. 31. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010DESERTEC will satisfy a substantial part of the energy needs of theMiddle East and North Africa, and meet as much as 15% of Europe’selectricity demand by 2050
  32. 32. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Energy demand in the ASEAN-6 countries more than doubled from1990 to 2007
  33. 33. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010The RE technologies with the potential to make major contributionin the medium term to 2030 are primarily those which havealready reached, or are close to, market competitiveness
  34. 34. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Technical/infrastructure barriers (including grid-related barriers)rank highest in obstacles identified in ASEAN countries, followedby administrative and market-related hurdles.
  35. 35. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Solar Outlook • The global solar market has significant momentum, and is not tied to the price of oil alone • However, the market remains policy driven until grid parity is reached – Policy uncertainty can adversely affect investor willingness to support large-scale installations or new startups • The market is diversifying, thanks to the rapid maturation of solar technologies – Thin film solar technology expands the market for PV and accelerates the trend toward grid parity – Concentrating solar technology is rapidly being adopted by utilities for centralized power generation – Traditional flat-plate PV continues its rapid decline in cost thanks to an influx of suppliers in Asia
  36. 36. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010REEEP is a vehicle to provide necessary support for REand EE market acceleration • REEEP acts as a market facilitator by reducing market barriers for  renewables and energy efficiency systems and focus on: • policy/regulation development and improvement • finance and business models • REEEP is driven by a bottom‐up approach to meet the real needs on the  ground • REEEP works with governments as well as with the private sector • REEEP is committed to the achievement of MDGs and aims to improve  access to sustainable clean energy for the poor
  37. 37. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010 Regional Secretariats delivering value
  38. 38. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010REEEP is technology neutral, but sees PV and solar thermal as keyenergy technologies • In most countries market forces alone cannot boost wide utilization of  solar technologies  • Supportive policies which provide financial support are key for the market  development • Subsidies on fossil fuels based energy can jeopardize the solar power  market • R&D on grid connection and storage is critical for the wide‐spread solar  implementation • International standards and technological harmonization would allow  more effective marketing of solar products • Improve capacity building should promote  solar power applications
  39. 39. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010 Provision of sustainable lighting through microfinance
  40. 40. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010REEEP projects in the Pacific region
  41. 41. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010REEEP tools www.reegle.info search engine www.retscreen.net free RE project development software
  42. 42. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010thank you
  43. 43. ATRAA 2010 Alice Springs, 6 August 2010 REEEPquestions? Eva Oberender Regional Director, REEEP Southeast Asia & Pacific T: +61 410 277 393 eva.oberender@reeep.org www.reeep.org www.reegle.info www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au
  44. 44. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010News on Solar Power • Australia plans to invest  $1.6 billion in solar technologies, including new funding  of $1.365 billion in a Solar Flagships program (1000MW ) helping position  Australia as a world leader in this vital energy technology for the future; • China launches green power revolution to catch up on west. The plan is to hit 20%  renewables target by 2020 with $30bn to be invested in low carbon projects.  Solar technology play a key role in this. • Malaysia will soon implement the feed-in tariff for solar to enable users to sell excess power to the power grid • India plans  20,000 MW of solar thermal and photovoltaic energy up and running  by 2020 and by investing $1bn to become world solar leader. • The world largest Solar Energy project ( 5GW ) is going to be built in Gujarat/India.   The Indian Company Bhoskar Silicon has announced that it will be building a 250  MW integrated solar power complex in West Bengal. 44
  45. 45. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010China is expected unveil feed in tariff for solar PV which could fallbetween US$0.16 and US$0.22 per kilowatt hour of electricity • China has rolled out two solar programs to date ‐ a rooftop solar subsidy of 20 RMB/watt for systems >50KW ‐ Golden sun Program which provides a rebate for systems >300 KW ( 50%  for on grid and 70% for off grid ) • Provincial programs for PV such as in Jiangsu, Beijing  • Special targets for solar heat application for 2010 which should have an   accumulated heat collection area 150 mil. M2 • Solar water heater: annual production 23 mil m2, accumulated 130 mil m2,  60% of the world production • Solar PV: a record manufacturing capacity 1GW, increased by 600MW,   largest  PV manufacturer in the world
  46. 46. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010India has announced the “Solar India” plan on December 1st 2009with estimated costs of $1b • “Solar India” plan adopts a three‐phased approach with a preliminary goal of  installing 200 MW of solar energy capacity by 2012. By the year 2022, Solar India  hopes to have 20,000 MW of solar thermal and photovoltaic energy up and  running, in detail it contains the following targets: ‐ To create favorable conditions for solar manufacturing capability, particularly  solar thermal for indigenous production and market leadership. ‐ To promote programs for off grid applications, reaching 1000 MW by 2017 and  2000 MW by 2022 . ‐ To achieve 15 million sq. meters solar thermal collector area by 2017 and 20  million by 2022. ‐ To deploy 20 million solar lighting systems for rural areas by 2022. • Generation based incentives which would be received by any solar generation  project commissioned after December 2009 with a ceiling of Rs 11.40/KWh • Generation Based Incentive scheme ( GBI) targets generation of a minimum of  1MW and aims to promote a total capacity of 50MWp within 2007 ‐2012. Under  this scheme an overall tariff of Rs 15 per KWh is guaranteed
  47. 47. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Renewable Energy is critical for energy security and economicgrowth, particularly for small islands According to TEC’s General Manager, Mr Mafalu Lotolua, “the development  of renewable energy resources to diversify Tuvalu’s energy mix offers some  degree of energy security for the country”.  Renewable energy resources such as solar, wind and biofuel (mainly derived  from coconut oil) provide a good prospect for broadening and diversifying  Tuvalu’s energy supply resources.
  48. 48. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Islands are becoming leaders in Renewable Energy Tuvalu has set a 100% renewable energy  target by 2020 It will cost $20 million to generate all  electricity from solar and wind and end  dependence on diesel “We look forward to the day when our nation offers an example to all – powered entirely by natural resources such as the sun and the wind” Kausea Natano, Tuvalu Minister for Public Utilities and Industries  Source: Tom Roper, Climate Institute
  49. 49. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010 Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership an international partnership established at the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg working primarily in developing countries and in countries in transition
  50. 50. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010 REEEP’s focus facilitating the development of market conditions for the accelerated uptake of renewable energy and energy efficient technologies through: structuring policy and regulatory initiatives for clean energy, and facilitating financing for clean energy projects REEEP adds unique value of bringing the private sector to the table
  51. 51. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010REEEP partners- businesses- G8 countries- developing countries- NGOs Currently some 300 partners: • 42 Governments • International organisations, NGOs and businesses, universities
  52. 52. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010 Regional Secretariats delivering value
  53. 53. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010 REEEP’s goals: increase the sustainability of demand and supply side of energy systems reduce market barriers and financial obstacles for renewables and energy efficiency systems establish on-the-ground project activities that are targeting policy improvements and innovative finance mechanisms improve energy access for the poor through reliable and clean energy services replicate success across the developed and developing world
  54. 54. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010In 130 projects REEEP has provided support to governments andprivate sector for RE and EE uptake Regional Projects Services Strategic Activities Regulatory and Information SERN Policy Issues Gateway “reegle" REIL Publications EEC Finance and Business Utility Programme Toolkits Green Community Clusters Added Value of REEEP: Replication Implementation Strategic Events Small Energy Leverage Provider Programme
  55. 55. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Implementation Support of Brazil Grid-Connected SolarPhotovoltaic Roofs Programme • Aim: Implement a legislative framework for PV • Use a consultative process involving key  stakeholders, NGOs, the Ministry of Mines and  Energy, the  regulator ANEEL and Financial  Institutions  • Develop a set of guidelines and  recommendations for the implementation of a  successful solar roofs programme • Prepare and present legislation and regulation  drafts • Conduct comprehensive analysis on the type  and quantity of incentives and subsidies, as  well as the consequent impacts on tariffs • Implementing agency: RENOVE
  56. 56. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Promotion of Solar Water Heating in Uganda • Aim: Use SWH for electricity peak shaving       Save 1 MW of electricity during peak  hours by installing 500 solar water heaters • Establish standards and guidelines for  integrating solar water heaters in  buildings • Capacity building of large number of  private sector engineers  to install and  maintain solar water heating systems • Prepare an investment plan to finance  replication and scale up of solar water  heater use • Implementing Agency: Ministry of Energy  and Mines Development
  57. 57. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Commercialization of Large Scale Solar Water Heating Systems inSouth Africa • Aim: To establish a fund to development a  market of large scale SWH in South Africa • Development of a business plan for a €1.75  million SWH investment facility – fund ‐ including technical assistance  • Secure financial commitment from  prospective financiers and donors • Organise a market development and training  workshop with relevant stakeholders to  develop an investment pipeline  • Implement the fund and evaluate the scaling  up to a larger second fund • Implementing Agency: E+Co
  58. 58. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Promoting Low-Energy Use Building Programmes in China Aim: Reduce the current 60% loss of  energy in the building sector of China  through SHW  Investigation of ten current low‐ energy building programmes in five  representative Chinese cities Review of best practices in  sustainable building programmes in  three European countries Development of policy  recommendations to promote the  incorporation of SHW technologies  into the building sector in China Implementing Agency:  CNERCHS/Ecofys
  59. 59. ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010Pacific Micro Energy Service Companies (PMESCOs) on the SolomonIslands and in Kiribati • Aim: Replace kerosene lamps with  solar lanterns • Establish a micro ESCO with a micro  credit facility in remote rural areas on  the Solomon Islands and in Kiribati  allowing barter payments in kind • Identification and training of local  entrepreneurs for servicing solar  lamps • Explore linkages with carbon Finance  • Implementing Agency: SOPAC
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