The 2030 Communities Campaign:
A convenient remedy
Living More, Driving
Less
1
A Nation of Neighborhoods
11
A Country of Corridors
Planning to Drive Less
The 2030 Communities Campaign:A Convenient Remedy

Living More, Driving Less
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Living More, Driving Less

By age 25 the average American has spent one year in a car.
This presents an enormous opportunity to retrofit
existing automobile-dependent communities and
build new sustainable corridors.
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Living More, Driving Less

By age 25 the average American has spent one year in a car.
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Living More, Driving Less

(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%
30% of American adults are obese.
Source: CDC Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults (BRFSS, 2005)
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Living More, Driving Less

“Over the next few
decades, life
expectancy for the
average American
could decline by as
much as 5 years
unless aggressive
efforts are made to
slow rising rates of
obesity”
National Institutes of Health Report
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Living More, Driving Less

At a time of rising gas prices, many communities are
completely dependent on cars to meet daily needs.
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Living More, Driving Less

8,150 miles
21,500 miles per capita
per family per year
per year
US. Vehicle Miles Traveled - Year 2000
Each year the average US family drives nearly around the Earth
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Living More, Driving Less

2000 U.S. VMT: 2,700,000,000,000 Miles
One Light Year: 5,800,000,000,000 Miles
2025: 1st Year U.S. will drive a light year
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Living More, Driving Less

Roughly 40,000 Americans are killed each year in
automobile accidents. A reduction in miles traveled could
result in a proportionate reduction in death rates.
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Living More, Driving Less

A Nation of Neighborhoods
The 2030 Communities Campaign:A Nation of Neighborhoods

Neighborhoods are designed for walking. They support
a high quality of life and offer individuals and families
choices in mobility, housing, shopping, work and play.
The 2030 Communities Campaign:A Nation of Neighborhoods

Neighborhoods vary across the urban-rural transect.
These include the hamlet, village, small town, and
urban neighborhood.
Images: Victor
Dover
The 2030 Communities Campaign:A Nation of Neighborhoods

We believe that all Americans including the
100,000,000 new US citizens we anticipate by 2050,
should live in neighborhoods.
The 2030 Communities Campaign:A Nation of Neighborhoods

This presents an enormous opportunity to rethink and
redevelop existing sprawling communities and build
thousands of new sustainable neighborhoods.
The 2030 Communities Campaign:A Nation of Neighborhoods

A Country of Corridors
The 2030 Communities Campaign:A Country of Corridors

We also believe that the neighborhoods and districts
where people live and work need to be part of a
transit corridor.
The 2030 Communities Campaign:A Country of Corridors

This presents an enormous opportunity to rethink
existing sprawling communities to add transit and to
build hundreds of new sustainable corridors.
The 2030 Communities Campaign:A Country of Corridors

Planning to Drive Less
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Per capita VMT will Average dwelling size
increase 5% w/ > CAFE grew 60% from 1970 -
standards 2005
The current climate change dialogue focuses on technological efficiency
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Climate Change “Wedges”
7 of 15 policy “wedges” must be met to limit temp. increase to 20C
Source:Socolow and Pacala, Sept. 2006
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Sustainable urbanism makes progress toward 7 separate wedges
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

#3
A 25% reduction in
building electrical use.
#2
A 50% reduction in
Vehicle Miles Traveled.
Two key Climate Change “Wedges”
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

2030 Architecture Challenge
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

The energy efficiency increases reduction standard
for all new buildings shall be increased to:
60% in 2010
70% in 2015
80% in 2020
90% in 2025
Carbon-neutral in 2030
2030 Architecture Challenge
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Bethel Corporate Courtyard Yannell (Zero Net)
Commercial Headquarters House House
Center
50% over code 55% over code 71% over code 120% over code
(2003) (2007) (2006) (2009)
Farr Associates building portfolio demonstrates that the 2030
standard is achievable but requires heroic dedication to overcome an
unsupportive sometimes hostile regulatory and funding environment
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

The transportation energy used to get to and from a building
can exceed the energy used in and by the building
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Per Capita VMT: History and 2030 Targets
10,000
9000
8000
7000
ANNUAL 6000
PER
CAPITA 5000 The Devaluation of Urbanism and Architecture
VEHICLE
MILES
TRVL’D 4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
YEAR
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

The 2030 Community Challenge
Planning Transport & Land Use to Lower Per Capita VMT
Starting in 2010, a sustained 2.5% annual reduction in VMT per year,
would result in:
12.5% reduction by 2015
25.0% reduction by 2020
37.5% reduction by 2025
50.0% reduction by 2030
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Is it feasible to meet this standard?
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Atlantic Station Atlanta, GA
Residents of Atlantic Station drive 75% less than the Atlanta average
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Reducing Motorized Travel in Portland (OR)
1.35
Population
1.25
Vehicle Miles Traveled
1.15
1.05
0.95
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Norman Garrick
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Reducing Motorized Travel in Portland (OR)
Transit
MAX Light Rail - 1981 Portland Streetcar - 2000
Tram - 2006
Source: Norman Garrick
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Reducing Motorized Travel in Portland (OR)
Walking and Biking
Cyclists per Day Bikeway Miles
1991 2007
http://www.streetsblog.org/wp-
content/uploads/2007/09/portland_bike_co
unts.jpg
Source: Norman Garrick
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Reducing Motorized Travel in Portland (OR)
Land use Planning and Urban Design
Contain Sprawl
Transit Oriented Developments
Source: Norman Garrick
Downtown Revitalization
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Mode Shift in Cambridge, MA 1990 - 2006
PT+Walk+Bike
Cars/Carpool
Source: Norman Garrick
36
The 2030 Communities Campaign:
The 2030 Communities Campaign: Planning to Drive Less

Would this standard be “convenient”?
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

The US. Climate Change Mayors/Cities Agreed to meet
the Kyoto Protocol which calls for a reduction of 5.2%
of greenhouse gases compared to the year 1990*.
The Climate Change Cities are not meeting these
targets in large part due to a hostile regulatory and
transportation funding environment.
(*Note that, compared to the emissions levels that would be expected by 2010
without the Protocol, this limitation represents a 29% cut).
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Current Federal Transit Funding
Highways and Roads 80%
Transit 17%
Bike, etc. 3%
Land Use Planning 0%
Development Controls 0%
Source: Shelley Poticha
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Manufacturing Traffic
13
Vehicle Miles Traveled in the USA
11
9
7
5
USA Population
3
1
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: Norman Garrick
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

The Dismal Science: Creating Traffic
Traffic Volume
Actual Traffic
Induced Traffic
Predicted Traffic
Road Widened
Years
Funding for new roads is often justified by long term projections that
VMT will increase, a self-fulfilling prophesy once the road is built.
Source: Norman Garrick
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Current Transportation Funding Criteria
Among the criteria for awarding construction funds
to build new roads is a demonstrated or projected
increase in VMT.
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

How would the 2030 Communities
Campaign help the average American?
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

National Resilience
The upcoming Transportation Bill T-4 could be based on
the need to plan and invest for a future with less driving.
This would not concern whether and how much
individuals drive but would lower the risk of future
catastrophic national threats due to the high cost of gas.
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Resilient Regions
Funding could be found for regional plans to plan for a
future with reduced driving due to higher gas prices. The
50% VMT reduction could be a specific goal of each plan.
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Resilient Communities
Funding could be found for comprehensive plans to plan
for a future with reduced driving due to higher gas prices.
The 50% VMT reduction could be a specific goal of each
plan.
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

“It’s the placemaking, stupid.”
Think “War Room”
The 2030 Communities Campaign:Planning to Drive Less

Thank You
The 2030 Communities Campaign:A Convenient Remedy