Joe cortright

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Joe cortright

  1. 1. October 2010 Talent Dividend Metrics Joe Cortright October 2010
  2. 2. October 2010 Roadmap 1. The Talent Dividend Calculation 2. Four Key Metrics 3. Years of Post Secondary Education 4. Migration
  3. 3. October 2010
  4. 4. October 2010
  5. 5. October 2010 Talent
  6. 6. October 2010 The Hypothesis • Better educated metropolitan areas have higher incomes • Better skilled workers are more innovative and productive
  7. 7. October 2010 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Raleigh-Cary, NC Austin-Round Rock, TX Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Denver-Aurora, CO New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY- Baltimore-Tow son, MD Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI Columbus, OH Kansas City, MO-KS Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC Richmond, VA Rochester, NY Salt Lake City, UT Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA Indianapolis-Carmel, IN Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Milw aukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA St. Louis, MO-IL Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Orlando-Kissimmee, FL Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA Houston-Sugar Land-Baytow n, TX Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Pittsburgh, PA Cincinnati-Middletow n, OH-KY-IN Virginia Beach-Norfolk-New port New s, VA-NC Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY Oklahoma City, OK Birmingham-Hoover, AL Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA Jacksonville, FL Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearw ater, FL San Antonio, TX Memphis, TN-MS-AR Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN Las Vegas-Paradise, NV Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Four Year College Attainment Rate
  8. 8. October 2010 The Evidence Education Explains Most Differences in Metro Income Annual Per Capita Income, 2005 NO RAL ROC SLC BIR BUF OKC HAR RIC LOU MEM JAC NAS AUS MIL CHA PRI VB IND COL LV SAT KC ORL SACCLE CIN POR PIT DEN BAL TPA STL SAN MIN SEA PHO DET ATL MIA HOU PHI DAL CHI LA NY y = 763.27x + 16466 R 2 = 0.5846 $30,000 $32,000 $34,000 $36,000 $38,000 $40,000 $42,000 $44,000 $46,000 $48,000 $50,000 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percent of Population with a 4-Year College Degree, 2006 Sources: BEA (Income), Census (Education)
  9. 9. October 2010 Estimating the Gain • Each 1% improvement in college attainment is associated with a $763 increase in per capita income for the entire metropolitan area • These education gains are the product of a shift in the entire skill distribution, not just moving 1% past the 4 year mark
  10. 10. October 2010 Make progress at every stage
  11. 11. October 2010 2. Metrics for improving attainment • High School Completion • College Continuation • Adult Post-Secondary Education • College Completion
  12. 12. October 2010 Different Sources of Data – Institutional • Enrollment records • Generated by schools • Aggregated by others (NCES, NCHEMS, NSC) – Population • Survey data • Gathered by Census Bureau • Covers entire population; sampling variability
  13. 13. October 2010 Institutional Measures • Administrative records from educational institutions – Diplomas, Enrollment • Reported to and aggregated by national organizations – NCES, National Student Clearinghouse • High coverage/ Can drill down; but can be vague and anomalous
  14. 14. October 2010 High School Completion • Cumulative Promotion Index • Product of high school grade level success rates: – [(9th to 10th %) x (10th to 11th %) x (11th to 12th) % x (12th to Diploma %)] • If 90% are promoted each year – CPI= .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 = 65.1% • Computed from NCES data
  15. 15. October 2010 High School Graduation Rates (CPI Method) WAS CIN PDX DET SAC IND NY BAL PHI MEM RIC KC VBN RAL ROC HOU RIV DEN NAS ATL OKC LOU MIL SLC AUS STL SDO JFL BIR CLE SEA TSP LA SJO DFW CHI MSP PHX LV MIA CHA ORL COL SAT SFO BUF 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% Source: Computed from NCES/CCD
  16. 16. October 2010 College Completion • Institutions report 6-year graduation rate for four-year institutions • Data reported by institutions, tabulated by IPEDS • We sum by metro area, weighting institutional rates by enrollment for four- year institutions.
  17. 17. October 2010 College Graduation Rates SDO COL LA SEA RIC SAC STL ORL ATL CLE ROC JFL BUF AUS TSP NAS BOS MIA VBN BAL PDX RIV PHI OKC CIN HAR DFW NY RAL DET NOLA CHA PIT SLC IND BIR PRO MEM LOU MIL SFO LV KC CHI SAT PHX HOU DEN WAS MSP SJO 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Source: Computed from IPEDS
  18. 18. October 2010 Population Measures • Data from American Community Survey • Two Questions: – Attendance – Attainment • Asked of 1% Sample Annually • Use 3-year 2006-2008 pooled sample
  19. 19. October 2010 MicroData Tabulations
  20. 20. October 2010 ACS Attendance Question
  21. 21. October 2010 The ACS Attainment Question
  22. 22. October 2010 High School Completion (on time) • What percent of 19 year olds report having received a high school diploma or GED? • Census question makes no distinction between diploma and GED
  23. 23. October 2010 College Continuation • What proportion of 18 to 24 year olds who have completed high school are enrolled in college?
  24. 24. October 2010 College Enrollment SAT PDX CHA HOU MEM LA SJO TSP CIN ROC SEA CLE NAS BUF SLC SDO WAS PIT IND BAL MIL PRO DFW RIC STL HAR LOU SAC OKC COL KC BIR MIA AUS PHX ORL DET PHI JFL VBN NOLA CHI SFO RAL LV DEN RIV ATL MSP NY BOS 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008 Percent of 18-24 Year Olds Attending Post-Secondary Education
  25. 25. October 2010 Adult Post-Secondary Education • What proportion of 25-44 year olds, who have completed high school, but do not have a bachelor’s degree, attended college classes?
  26. 26. October 2010 Adult Enrollment and Age Enrollment Declines with Age Percent of Persons with Less than a BA Degree Attending College Classes, by Age R2 = 0.983 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Age AttendingCollegeClasses Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
  27. 27. October 2010 Adult Post-Secondary Attendance RIC KC LA PRO TSP PHX RAL PIT RIV MIL LOU ORL ROC BOS CHI SEA PDX NY PHI HOU COL MIA SAT SJO DFW NAS ATL AUS HAR CLE WAS OKC NOLA CHA CIN MSP STL JFL BAL SLC VBN LV BIR BUF DEN IND MEM DET SFO SDO SAC 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008 25 to 44 Year Olds with No Four-Year Degree Attending Post-Secondary Classes
  28. 28. October 2010 College Completion • What percent of 24 year olds report having received a four-year college degree?
  29. 29. October 2010 College Completion CHA BOS ROC IND OKC BAL DEN ATL PRO SEA CLE CHI SDO CIN MIL DFW PDX HAR BUF DET RIC BIR MSP SAC TSP ORL NAS NY LV PHX LA STL COL SAT NOLA MEM SJO PHI SLC HOU MIA SFO PIT RIV VBN JFL LOU AUS KC WAS RAL 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008 24 Year Olds with a Four-year degree or higher
  30. 30. October 2010 Making Use of the Data • Where am is my region strong and weak? • Who is doing better that I might learn from? • Are there special conditions that affect local performance?
  31. 31. October 2010 Years of Post-Secondary Education • Four-year degree attainment rate is too simple to capture the “size” of the Talent Dividend challenge • How much additional education is needed to raise the attanment rate?
  32. 32. October 2010
  33. 33. October 2010 YPSE Weights Value Years of PSE High school graduate, or Less 0 Some college, less than 1 year .5 One or more years of college but no degree 1.2 Associate degree 2 Bachelor's degree 4 Master's degree 5 Professional degree 5 Doctorate degree 7
  34. 34. October 2010 YPSE v. 4 year attainment Years of Post-Secondary Education Correlates with BA Attainment y = 0.2097x - 0.0634 R2 = 0.9763 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 YPSE: Years of Post-Secondary Education BAAttainmentRate Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
  35. 35. October 2010 How much effort? • Years of Post-Secondary Education • Portland: About 100,000 person years of additional post-secondary education to raise the four-year college attainment rate by 1 percentage point.
  36. 36. October 2010 Migration • About 2.7 million working age persons with four-year degrees move to a different metropolitan area each year
  37. 37. October 2010 Talent Migration * PHI CHI JFL MIL BAL LOU SLC PRO CIN VBN DFW TSP NY BUF SFO PIT PDX HAR IND WAS ATL PHX ROC BOS NAS SDO SAT RAL MEM ORL COL SJO HOU CHA LV NOLA DET LA MSP KC RIC SAC RIV SEA AUS -1% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.5% * Not adjusted for international out-migration Net In-Migration of Working Aged Adults with a Four-year Degree Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
  38. 38. October 2010

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