SBP Nov Poll 2010 Report

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SBP Nov Poll 2010 Report

  1. 1. Voting Intention Tracking Poll Nov 2010
  2. 2. Methodology and Weighting RED C interviewed a random sample of 1000 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 15th & 17th Nov 2010. A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered. Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to halfway between the two. Finally vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote.
  3. 3. SUNDAY BUSINESS POST – 21st November 2010 - Opinion Poll Are voters now ashamed to say they may vote Fianna Fail? Today’s RED C/ Sunday Business Post poll confirms much about the political landscape in Ireland. Fine Gael continues to strengthen their hand as the lead party in Ireland, securing 33% of the vote. Labour also re-affirms their strong second place, securing 27% of first preference for the second month in a row. Sinn Fein see the biggest increases on the back of media coverage surrounding their successful high court challenge that forced the by-election in Donegal South West, and also the announcement that Gerry Adams is to stand for election in the Republic of Ireland. Support for the Greens remains depressed, with the bounce last month on the back of calls for consensus on the budget, dissipating quickly one month on. Perhaps however, the most important insight from the poll is the continued decline in the share of vote secured by Fianna Fail. A further decline of 1% this month leaves the party with only 17% of the electorate claiming they would give them a first preference vote. This result confirms that the fall seen last month, when support fell below 20% for the first time since RED C began polling six years ago, was very real and not an anomaly. It leaves the party looking into a possible General Election with potentially less than half the share of first preference vote they achieved in 2007. As the banking and financial crisis has worsened, the party has become more and more unpopular. What we need to be careful about is whether the party has now become so unpopular that Irish voters are even “ashamed” to tell us they would vote Fianna Fail, even if they intend to. Analysis of past polling conducted in other countries has shown that parties certainly can get so unpopular that people are ashamed to tell interviewers that they will vote for that party, and instead refuse to give a preference or claim that they are undecided. This phenomenon, called The Spiral of Silence, was first identified in Germany by a Professor Noelle-Neumann in 1974. It was also famously apparent in the 1992 UK elections, when people were ashamed to tell the pollsters that they were going to vote Conservative, but ended up electing John Major, despite polls suggesting Neil Kinnock and the Labour Party was likely to win. It is then conceivable that in Ireland today some form of a Spiral of Silence may exist among those who may still want to vote Fianna Fail, but are perhaps too shy to tell us. To try and combat this phenomena, rather than just assuming that everyone who is undecided will vote the same way as those that give us a first preference vote; we look at how they voted at the last election.
  4. 4. For our Spiral of Silence analysis we then assume that that 50% of these undecided voters will vote how they voted last time and that the other half will vote along the lines of those who did give us a preference. The impact of this analysis in the latest poll is limited to just two of the main parties. Not surprisingly Fianna Fail gain share as result, but only marginally, with their first preference share increasing by 2%, leaving them possibly securing 19% of the vote. Labour are the only party to lose share, dropping 1% and leaving them securing 26% of the vote. In fact, even if we were to take this analysis to its extreme and assume ALL of those who don’t know or refused to tell us how they will vote, ended up giving their first preference to the party they supported at the last election; Fianna Fail would still only secure 21% of the vote. This still leaves them with only half the share they achieved at the last election, so shy or undecided voters certainly isn’t the answer to their troubles. Analysis of second preference votes also doesn’t provide any solace for the party. Fianna Fail is the second preference of just 9% of all voters, while Fine Gael and Labour voters support each other strongly and in similar measure on second preference. (As an aside the Greens also may be concerned that they are the second preference of just 7% of the electorate, a traditional strong part of their electorate success being transfers.) It would appear then that the problems for the party are very real, and there is little to take heart from in a deeper analysis of the topline figures. Even the local candidate factor, which has often been heralded as likely to improve support when it mattered at on the ground at actual elections, may not have as much impact as seen previously. This is emphasized in the findings from a constituency poll conducted by RED C for Paddy Power in the Donegal South West by-election earlier this week. Donegal South West had previously been one of the strongest Fianna Fail constituencies in the country. However, despite including the impact of local candidates on the ground, this poll sees support for Fianna Fail candidates plummet. Overall support for the party, in the event of a general election, is down by a staggering 32%, from a high of 51% at the last general election to just 19% in the poll. And while this doesn’t take into account a lack of campaigning by non by-election candidates, the results even suggests that the Tánaiste Mary Coughlan’s seat is potentially at risk, once one of the safest in the country. The possibility of a general election must now be very worrying for a large number of Fianna Fail TD’s.
  5. 5. 33% 17% 27% 11% 3% 8% Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? (Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) N.B. Please note rounding leaves total support only adding up to 99%, as the other1% spread evenly across 3 parties
  6. 6. 24% 30% 22% 10% 5% 9% 24% 33% 27% 8% 2% 6% 24% 31% 23% 10% 3% 9% 18% 32% 27% 9% 4% 10% 17% 33% 27% 11% 3% 8% 10% 6% 42% 27% 7% 5% Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other General election 2007 May 2010 June 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? (Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) N.B. Please note rounding leaves total support only adding up to 99%, as the other1% spread evenly across 3 parties
  7. 7. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Dec ’05 If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote? (Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 33% 27% 17% Independent Mar ’06 Jun ’06 Oct ’06 Jan ’07 Apr ’07 May ’07 GE 2007 Oct ’07 Jan ’08 Apr ’08 Jun ’08 11% Oct ’08 Jan ’09 3% Apr ’09 GE 2002 Sep ’09 Nov ’09 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mar ’10 2010 Sept ’10 8% N.B. Please note rounding leaves total support only adding up to 99%, as the other1% spread evenly across 3 parties
  8. 8. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote? (Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 33% 27% 17% Independent GE 2007 Sep ’07 Oct ’07 Nov ’07 Jan ’08 Feb ’08 Mar ’08 Apr ’08 May ’08 Jun ’08 Sep ’08 11% Oct ’08 Nov ’08 Jan ’09 3% Feb ’09 Mar ’09 Apr ’09 May ’09 May ’09 Sep ’09 Sep ’09 Nov ’09 Oct ’09 Jan ’10 2008 2009 Feb ’10 Mar ’10 2010 Apr ’10 8% May ’10 Jun ’10 Sep ’10 Oct ’10 Oct ’10 N.B. Please note rounding leaves total support only adding up to 99%, as the other1% spread evenly across 3 parties
  9. 9. CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT Core figures 21st Nov 2010 Excluding undecided 2007 Election Results % % % Fine Gael 28 33 27 Labour 23 27 10 Fianna Fáil 15 17 42 Sinn Féin 10 11 7 Green Party 2 3 5 Independents/Ot hers 7 8 6 Undecided 15 If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? (Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) N.B. Please note rounding leaves total support only adding up to 99%, as the other1% spread evenly across 3 parties
  10. 10. 33% 27% 17% 11% 3% 8% 33% 26% 19% 11% 3% 8% Normal D/K allocation Past Vote weighted D/K Allocation Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other Spiral of Silence Allocation of Undecided Voters. If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? (Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) The Spiral of Silence Assumes that one party is so poorly thought of that respondents are “ashamed” to admit that they will vote for them. To take account of this we look at how those who are currently undecided or refuse to give a preference voted at the last general election. We then re-allocate 50% of these to the party they voted last time, and 50% to how the rest claim they will vote this time. N.B. Please note rounding leaves total support only adding up to 99%, as the other1% spread evenly across 3 parties
  11. 11. 9 12 10 6 7 25 18 12 44 20 24 11 46 8 25 7 12 4 10 2 7 15 4 7 3 14 15 9 14 17 14 17 15 11 26 Second Preference among First preference voters FG % FF % Labour % % Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Independents Undecided First Preference Second Preference TOTAL %

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