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Avoiding Recession 2.0 Credit Crunch Tracking May 2010
<ul><li>Positive trend of improving consumer confidence over past year has slowed – mainly driven by the situation in Gree...
Positive Trend in Outlook for Irish economy has slowed since February, but remains well ahead of last year
Much better (5) Much worse (1) Average Stay the same (3) Slightly better (4) Slightly worse (2) 1.92 12 1.88 11 2.32 18 NE...
Higher expectations seen  among the youth, the retired and those born outside of Ireland.
Expectations for the Irish economy 6 months from now  % Stating they believe it will be the  same or better  (3-5) 18-34 %...
A less positive outlook for the World economy, has held the positive Irish outlook in check.
Much better (5) Much worse (1) Average Stay the same (3) Slightly better (4) Slightly worse (2) NET Same/Better (3-5) 2.72...
I am worried that the situation in Greece and other Southern European countries could cause another downturn in the Irish ...
Positive trend for housing and job market have also slowed... though fewer believe it will get worse!
Much better (5) Much worse (1) Average The Housing Market 6 months from now? Job security 6 months from now? 2.29 Stay the...
The problems for the Greek economy and other EU states, has had an impact on how people feel the recession will impact on ...
High impact (8-10) Limited Impact (1-3) Expected Personal Impact of Recession - Overall Average 5.7 May ‘ 09 % 5.8 6.6 Feb...
18-34 % 35-44 % 45-64 % AGE 65+ % Any % None % CHILDREN Male % Female % GENDER ABC1 % C2DE % SOCIAL CLASS Expected Persona...
Decreased optimism leads to an increase in perceived impact of recession on monthly spending, lifestyle and job security.
Monthly Spending Average Your Way Of Life 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.4 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.6 6.7 6.4 High impact (8-10) Limited Impact (1-3) ...
Average Full-time Workers Part-time Workers 5.0 5.1 4.7 5.4 5.6 5.7 4.9 6.5 5.6 5.7 High impact (8-10) Limited Impact (1-3...
<ul><li>The negative outlook on the World economy combined with increased fear of being hit personally by the recession ha...
Already increased Not likely to increase Entertainment such as going out, eating, drinking or socialising Grocery spend Co...
But, younger age groups and higher social classes are most likely to increase spend again... % Likely to increase spend in...
<ul><li>When increased spending occurs, this is more likely to affect everyday shopping rather than luxury items or going ...
I have started to treat myself/my family more than 6 months ago, for example when buying clothes or going to restaurants m...
Summary... <ul><li>The positive upward trend in consumer confidence appears to have slowed – driven by a more pessimistic ...
Summary... <ul><li>It is crucial that the situation in the Euro-zone is solved quickly and decisively – and Ireland’s own ...
Methodology – RED Express <ul><li>1,000 telephone interviews (CATI) using a random digital sample to ensure coverage of al...
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Red C credit crunch tracking - may 2010

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RED C credit crunch tracking Ireland 2010

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Transcript of "Red C credit crunch tracking - may 2010"

  1. 1. Avoiding Recession 2.0 Credit Crunch Tracking May 2010
  2. 2. <ul><li>Positive trend of improving consumer confidence over past year has slowed – mainly driven by the situation in Greece/the Euro-zone. </li></ul><ul><li>Fear of a “Recession 2.0” exists and has led to a pause in future spending intentions. </li></ul>Caution among Consumers...?
  3. 3. Positive Trend in Outlook for Irish economy has slowed since February, but remains well ahead of last year
  4. 4. Much better (5) Much worse (1) Average Stay the same (3) Slightly better (4) Slightly worse (2) 1.92 12 1.88 11 2.32 18 NET Same/Better (3-5) 22 19 38 How do you expect the Irish economy to fare in the next 6 months? May ‘ 09 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % 2.54 26 48 Feb ‘ 10 % 2.57 51 May ‘ 10 % 26 <ul><li>Positive trend in expectations to Irish economy have slowed ! </li></ul><ul><li>Half the population still expect the Irish economy to fare worse over the next 6 months. </li></ul><ul><li>But 1 in 4 expect the economy to improve over the next 6 months. </li></ul>
  5. 5. Higher expectations seen among the youth, the retired and those born outside of Ireland.
  6. 6. Expectations for the Irish economy 6 months from now % Stating they believe it will be the same or better (3-5) 18-34 % 35-44 % 45-64 % AGE 65+ % Any % None % CHILDREN Male % Female % GENDER ABC1 % C2DE % SOCIAL CLASS TOTAL % COUNTRY OF ORIGIN Ireland % Other % Change since Feb ‘10 +3% +3% +2% +3% +0% +5% +2% +2% +5% +5% +0% +3% -1% Highest increase in consumer confidence among those with children, lower social classes and 45-64 year olds.
  7. 7. A less positive outlook for the World economy, has held the positive Irish outlook in check.
  8. 8. Much better (5) Much worse (1) Average Stay the same (3) Slightly better (4) Slightly worse (2) NET Same/Better (3-5) 2.72 16 2.77 18 3.18 19 50 51 68 How do you expect the World economy to fare in the next 6 months? May ‘ 09 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % 3.36 20 78 Feb ‘ 10 % 3.17 22 71 May ‘ 10 % <ul><li>Expectations for the World economy have declined . </li></ul><ul><li>Almost 1 in 3 believe the World economy will fare worse in the next 6 months. </li></ul><ul><li>But more than half still expect the World economy to improve . </li></ul>
  9. 9. I am worried that the situation in Greece and other Southern European countries could cause another downturn in the Irish economy I think that the worst is over for the Irish economy and that it will only improve going forward Less positive World outlook clearly impacted by the situation in Greece Strongly Disagree (1) % (2) % Strongly Agree (5) % (3) % (4) % 28 22
  10. 10. Positive trend for housing and job market have also slowed... though fewer believe it will get worse!
  11. 11. Much better (5) Much worse (1) Average The Housing Market 6 months from now? Job security 6 months from now? 2.29 Stay the same (3) Slightly better (4) Slightly worse (2) 1.85 20 11 2.32 1.89 23 14 2.43 26 2.24 20 NET Same/Better (3-5) 33 19 37 22 43 34 2.59 36 53 2.34 27 40 May ‘ 09 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % May ‘ 09 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % How do you expect the Housing and Job markets to fare in the next 6 months? 2.60 55 May ‘ 10 % 2.39 42 May ‘ 10 % 38 27
  12. 12. The problems for the Greek economy and other EU states, has had an impact on how people feel the recession will impact on them personally
  13. 13. High impact (8-10) Limited Impact (1-3) Expected Personal Impact of Recession - Overall Average 5.7 May ‘ 09 % 5.8 6.6 Feb ‘ 09 % Sept ‘ 08 % 6.1 July ‘ 09 % 7.0 Oct ‘ 09 % Some Impact (4-7) 58 51 48 55 44 6.0 Feb ‘ 10 % 53 <ul><li>2 in 5 now believe that the recession will have a high impact on them personally. </li></ul><ul><li>Less than 1 in 10 believe that the recession will have no impact on them personally. </li></ul>6.7 May ‘ 10 % 51
  14. 14. 18-34 % 35-44 % 45-64 % AGE 65+ % Any % None % CHILDREN Male % Female % GENDER ABC1 % C2DE % SOCIAL CLASS Expected Personal Impact of Recession – Net High Impact (8-10) TOTAL % The biggest change in impact appears to be among younger families who have become far more negative about the impact of the recession May ‘ 10 Feb ‘ 10
  15. 15. Decreased optimism leads to an increase in perceived impact of recession on monthly spending, lifestyle and job security.
  16. 16. Monthly Spending Average Your Way Of Life 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.4 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.6 6.7 6.4 High impact (8-10) Limited Impact (1-3) Some Impact (4-7) 54 53 48 56 41 49 51 55 41 45 May ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Sept ‘ 08 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % May ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Sept ‘ 08 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % 5.9 49 Feb ‘ 10 % 5.6 51 Feb ‘ 10 % Expected Impact of Recession on…. 6.5 43 May ‘ 10 % 6.1 50 May ‘ 10 %
  17. 17. Average Full-time Workers Part-time Workers 5.0 5.1 4.7 5.4 5.6 5.7 4.9 6.5 5.6 5.7 High impact (8-10) Limited Impact (1-3) Some Impact (4-7) 39 36 37 38 40 36 38 44 40 34 May ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Sept ‘ 08 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % May ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Sept ‘ 08 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % 4.7 34 Feb ‘ 10 % 5.7 34 Feb ‘ 10 % Job security has decreased among both full-time and part-time workers... 5.2 33 May ‘ 10 % 6.5 33 May ‘ 10 %
  18. 18. <ul><li>The negative outlook on the World economy combined with increased fear of being hit personally by the recession has reduced any further increases in spending </li></ul>
  19. 19. Already increased Not likely to increase Entertainment such as going out, eating, drinking or socialising Grocery spend Consumer goods and services – e.g. hairdresser, clothes, mobile phone, gaming etc. Holidays and short breaks Likely to increase in next 6 months Likely to increase in next 12 months Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % Likelihood to increase spend in... All product categories impacted by negative global outlook. May ‘ 10 % May ‘ 10 % May ‘ 10 % May ‘ 10 %
  20. 20. But, younger age groups and higher social classes are most likely to increase spend again... % Likely to increase spend in next 12 months Entertainment Grocery Spend Consumer Goods/ Services Holidays/ Shorter Breaks Total 27 28 25 28 Gender Male 26 26 27 29 Female 27 31 24 27 Age 18-34 41 38 36 40 35-54 22 27 22 23 55-64 14 15 15 24 65+ 15 20 15 15 Social Class ABC1 27 25 25 33 C2DE 27 31 27 25
  21. 21. <ul><li>When increased spending occurs, this is more likely to affect everyday shopping rather than luxury items or going out </li></ul>
  22. 22. I have started to treat myself/my family more than 6 months ago, for example when buying clothes or going to restaurants more often I have relaxed my shopping around and have reversed a little to my old shopping habits before the recession Focus on everyday shopping when increasing spend rather than ‘treats’... Strongly Disagree (1) % (2) % Strongly Agree (5) % (3) % (4) % 20 26
  23. 23. Summary... <ul><li>The positive upward trend in consumer confidence appears to have slowed – driven by a more pessimistic outlook for the World economy. </li></ul><ul><li>This appears to have been as a result of the more recent problem for Greece and other Euro-zone states </li></ul><ul><li>Although there are signs that some increases have come already, consumer fears of the impact on Ireland and themselves, appear for the moment to have led to an reluctance towards further increases. </li></ul>
  24. 24. Summary... <ul><li>It is crucial that the situation in the Euro-zone is solved quickly and decisively – and Ireland’s own position defended strongly by politicians and the media to reassure consumers and regain momentum. </li></ul><ul><li>The immediate reaction to bad news among consumers, shows again the precarious nature of current growth in the market place. </li></ul><ul><li>Industry needs to continue to work hard to reassure consumers that we are on ‘the road to recovery” in order to avoid “recession 2.0”. </li></ul>
  25. 25. Methodology – RED Express <ul><li>1,000 telephone interviews (CATI) using a random digital sample to ensure coverage of all households, including ex-directory. </li></ul><ul><li>Quotas were set and data weighted to ensure a national representative sample of the population aged 18+ years. </li></ul><ul><li>This is the 8 th wave of the credit crunch tracking – fieldwork was conducted 24 th – 26 th May 2010. </li></ul>
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