*Rental Apartment Market Reserach *Apartment Market Supply * Apartment Market Demand *Renter Demographics The RECON Rental Apartment Market Report is a quarterly report on the dynamics of the rental apartment market and analyzes the main drivers of rental demand, market segmentation, demographics, renter preferences and behaviours. Current market rents and expectations for future performance are determined through the collection, analysis and synthesization of economic, demand and supply indicators that are analyzed and interpreted to produce a snapshot of the current rental apartment market performance and future expectations. The purpose of the RECON Rental Apartment Market Report is to provide insight into rental apartment housing in the market for future development or investment. This market research report provides market intelligence for informative purposes. To assess your individual research needs, contact us for more information www.reconsultants.ca

1. RECON RENTAL APARTMENT
MARKET REPORT
Barrie, ON
MAY 2016

2. MARKET OVERVIEW
Barrie’s
historic
downtown area
is situated in a
distinct curved
or wrapped
valley,
surrounding
the western
edge of
Kempenfelt Bay, which is part of Lake Simcoe.
There is currently a City Centre renewal and
revitalization program that focuses on economic
development opportunities, culture, arts,
entertainment and lifestyle to attract a greater
number of residents, tourists, and new business
to the downtown area.
• The population of the City of Barrie is
135,711 (2011 Census)
• Estimated 2014 Population is 143,634
• The Median Age is 37.2 yrs.
• Population growth since 2011 was
5.8%, already surpassing the 5 yr.
growth of 5.7% between 2006 and
2011
DEMOGRAPHICS
1.1% 4.4% 5.5%
5.7%
23.8%
31.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2011 2006 2001
Annualized Growth 5 Yr Growth
Located between the shores of Lake Simcoe
and Highway 400, at less than an hour's drive
from Toronto, Barrie is an attractive community
for people seeking the nearness and vitality of
the big city, but wanting a more laid-back
lifestyle. The city has expanded from a
recreational area to a solid and diverse
economy in recent years and is home to
commuters and business because of its
excellent access via Highways 26, 400, 11.
Job growth, economic diversification, major
transportation improvements and aggressive
economic development pursuits have helped
Barrie to become a magnet for new residents,
new development and new businesses.
62.3%
48.1%
Married/Common Law Single
The 2014 population is estimated to be 143,634,
which is 5.8% total growth over 3 years, suggesting
population growth is accelerating. Since 2011, home
prices have increased by roughly 50%, which can be
partially attributed to increasing population growth.
Population growth in the market area remains positive and
is much higher than both the City of Toronto and the larger
Toronto CMA. Signs of accelerating growth is positive for
the local economy and housing demand, in general.
Almost 63% of the population is
married or common-law, which is
higher than Toronto, the largest rental
market, where single persons
represent 53%. While single persons
have a higher propensity to rent, many
couples without children are renters,
especially among younger people.
Additionally, couples increase
household size but decrease the
number of households.

3. 24.8%
75.2%
Renters Owners
1,150
2,610
1,930 2,660 1,330
2,710 1,270 1,440
515
5,150
8,630 10,065 6,365
6,825 3,820 3,005
<25years
25to34
years
35to44
years
45to54
years
55to64
years
65+years
65to74
years
75yearsand
over
Owners
Renters
• 24.8% of all Barrie households are renters,
compared to Toronto, the largest rental
market, at 45.4%
• Households under 25 yrs. have the highest
propensity to rent, followed by the 25 to 34 yr.
old market segment
• Households 25 to 34 yrs. and 45 to 54 yrs.
are the largest market share of renters
• Median household income of renters is
$38,389
HouseholdType %of Renters
Propensityto
Rent
Lone-parent 19.2% 49.7%
MultipleFamily 1.9% 18.2%
OnePerson 33.8% 34.4%
Coupleswithout children 17.7% 16.0%
Coupleswithchildren 12.5% 15.8%
RENTER HOUSEHOLDS
Renter
Toronto 45.4%
Orillia 36.7%
Toronto CMA 31.7%
Hamilton 31.6%
Guelph 30.2%
Oshawa 29.7%
Barrie 24.8%
Vaughan 7.8%
this demographic, as many choose to downsize and rent units with
suitable amenities. The large difference between average and
Barrie has a smaller renter population than many cities
around the GTA and a high percentage of home owners.
Lower home prices have increased ownership, however
rapidly rising home prices over the last 5 years could
have a positive effect on the rental market and increase
the pool of renters. It is expected that additional
apartment supply and an increase in the depth of the
secondary rental market since 2011 has increased the
number of renters.
Younger households under the age of 25 have the highest propensity to rent at 69.1%, however since there
are fewer households the market share is the smallest. Therefore, Millennials may be more inclined to rent,
the market pool remains relatively small. Incomes are typically low in this demographic and the propensity
to rent drops by half over the age of 25, while the market segment doubles to 21.1%. As house prices keep
rising and affordability is squeezed, the 25 to 34 yrs. market segment will grow, increasing demand for
rental housing. Renters bottom out at the 65 to 74 yr. market segment, indicating seniors are maintaining
their residences longer. We anticipate high housing prices will have a positive effect on the market depth of
Average
Income
Median
Income
All Households $83,533 $70,745
Owners $92,966 $80,515
Renters $62,195 $38,389
median incomes of renters
indicates that there are lifestyle
renters in the market – that is,
households that prefer to rent
although they can
afford to own. This
market segment will
prefer condo rentals in
the secondary market
unless suitable
apartments are
available.

4. RENTAL MARKET SUPPLY
3%
32%
58%
7%
PRIMARY RENTAL APARTMENT
UNIVERSE
0 BED
1 BED
2 BED
3 BED
-4%
1%
6%
11%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GROWTH IN APARTMENT UNITS
0 BED 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED TOTAL
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
3,500
3,600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Apt Supply Rent Growth Vacancy
CMHC 2015 APARTMENT RENTS
Average Rent Median Rent
0 Bed $728 $700
1 Bed $1,007 $983
2 Bed $1,169 $1,092
3 Bed $1,299 $1,325
5.5
1.1 1.0
2.6
1.3
0
5
10
15
0 BED 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED TOT
VACANCY RATE BY UNIT TYPE
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
The overall vacancy rate in Barrie has declined steadily
since 2013 , indicating the rental market is tightening with
vacancy currently at 1.3%.
The vacancy rates for bachelor units, followed by 3
bedroom units are the most volatile, however the supply is
low, causing annual fluctuations in the vacancy rate. 1 and
2 Bed units have seen vacancies decline since 2013 and
are equally low at 1.1% and 1.0%.
There are 3,537 apartment units in the primary rental market.
The apartment universe is defined as the entire existing
apartment stock in the market, the majority being older stock
and low to mid-rise with little or no amenities.
2 Bed units make up almost 60% of the primary apartment
universe, while bachelor and 3 bed units capture only 10%. The
number of 3 bed units increased 9.4% in 2015 with the addition
of 21 apartment units. There are 111 bachelor units in the
primary universe, despite single-person households being the
largest demographic of renters in Barrie. Bachelor units may be
available in the secondary rental market or single person
demand for apartment units is for a minimum of 1 bedroom
suites.
The median rents for 1 and 2 bed units are
lower than the average indicating the recently
added new apartment construction has skewed
the average higher and the median rent is a
more accurate representation of the average
rent of most of the primary rental apartment
universe. Older buildings and those with fewer
units command the lowest rents and are not
directly comparable to new apartment
construction or condos for lease on the
secondary rental market.
While the median rent represents the entire
rental stock, separating new purpose-built
rental buildings from the entire population
provides a benchmark to measure current rents
for new rental apartment supply.
While supply remained stagnant in 2013,
vacancies declined and rents jumped. New
apartment supply in the last 2 years has been
absorbed by the market as vacancies have
remained low and the rental market tight.
Further increases in the primary rental
apartment supply and rental condo units, may
dampen rent growth this year.

5. RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
YOY Growth
1 Bed $1,520 $2.18 $1,511 $2.01 0.6%
2 Bed $2,183 $2.20 $2,500 $2.05 -12.7%
BENCHMARK NEW APARTMENT CONSTRUCTION AVERAGE RENTS
2016 2015
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
RENTPERSF
UNIT SIZE
1 BED
2 BED
PRIMARY RENTAL MARKET
The primary rental market consists of purpose-built rental apartment buildings although it only supplies
a fraction of rental housing in Ontario markets. There has been very little new supply added to the
market over the last three decades, primarily because development of condo unit has been more
economically optimal for developers and consumers in a period of rising land values and low cost of
borrowing.
The existing apartment supply is predominantly older buildings, 63% of units constructed prior to 1980.
New apartment construction (post 2000) accounts for 9% of supply. Truly new construction within the
last 5 years, has added 91 rental apartment units, an increase of 7.7%, capturing 2.5% of the primary
rental market.
1 Bed 2 Bed 1 Bed 2 Bed
Avg Size 667 897 657 875
Min Rent $811 $913 $811 $913
Max Rent $1,700 $2,250 $1,700 $1,600
Average Rent $1,062 $1,263 $1,041 $1,177
WITH BENCHMARK WITHOUT BENCHMARK
MARKET COMPARABLES
The market comparables reflect current asking rents of primary rentals. In order to determine achievable
rents for new apartment supply, the newest rentals have been removed from the sample and used as a
benchmark for new construction.
Average rents of our benchmark
property are flat over 2015 for 1 bed
units but have dropped significantly
for 2 bed units. At first glance, this
suggests demand for 2 bed units
has decreased in 2016.
A closer look involving a comparison of changes in rents
among identical units in our benchmark indicates that 1 bed
units have decreased -1.3% and 2 bed units decreased -4.2%.
Additional supply of 2 bed units could continue to push rents
down as the market absorbs the new rental units. 2 Bed units
account for 2/3 of the rental universe and single-person
households represent the largest market share of renters in
Barrie. Single-person households have a higher propensity to
rent smaller units, suggesting unit mix is too heavily weighted
in larger units. On a price per square foot basis, benchmark 1
and 2 bed units are achieving similar prices at $2.18 and
$2.20, respectively. In theory, the rent per square foot
decreases as unit size increases. Since 2 bed units have seen
a decrease in monthly rent, further dampening is anticipated to
align supply and demand.
Additional supply of 1 Bed units should be easily absorbed by
the market since vacancies have been steady, but remain
competitive with accessory suites in the secondary market.
$1,550
$2,400
$1,530
$2,300Change in Rent,
-1.3%
Change in Rent,
-4.2%
-4.5%
-4.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
$-00
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
1 BED 2 BED
BENCHMARK AVERAGE RENT YOY COMPARISON BYUNIT
2015 2016

6. CMHC
Market
Comparables
NAC
Benchmark
Condos
1 Bed $1,007 $1,041 $1,520 $1,525
2 Bed $1,169 $1,177 $2,183 $1,438
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
CMHC MARKET
COMPARABLES
NAC
BENCHMARK
CONDOS
1BED 2BED
SECONDARY RENTAL MARKET
After surveying market rents and comparing current average
rents versus sitting rents reported by CMHC for the entire
rental apartment supply, current asking rents are slightly
higher for 2 bed units and 2.4% higher for 1 bed units. Dens
are considered a unit feature and are not differentiated in
order to maintain data comparable with CMHC.
The average market rents for new purpose-built rental and
condos are higher than the sitting rents. This is due primarily
to the superior product offered to renters than the majority of
existing purpose-built rentals. Additional supply of new
apartment construction will have a spill over effect that will lift
rents of all rental units in the market.
The secondary rental market consists of rented units in the condominium universe that are
generally owned by individual owners who rent out units, or condominium builders who rent out
units they have not yet sold or choose to hold for revenue generation. Condominiums for lease
typically represent the largest part of the secondary rental market, bur other types of housing such
as accessory or basement suites (second suites) are increasing. Additionally, condominium
apartments target the same market segment as purpose-built rental units and compete for market
share.
Since the secondary rental market is dynamic (units can be removed from the supply by owner
occupancy), it is only possible to gauge the size of the secondary rental supply. It is estimated that
approximately 8,500 households rent units in the secondary market, roughly twice the size of the
primary rental universe. Given there are roughly 5,000 condominium units of all housing types in
Barrie, of which only a portion will be rentals, a significant source of rental units in the secondary
rental market come from secondary/basement suites in detached homes. Currently, it is estimated
that there are approximately 2,000 secondary suites in Barrie. This number is expected to increase
as rental income helps households manage rising house prices and they are generally more
accepted within low-density residential areas, whereas multifamily apartment developments are
met with more community opposition.
MIN MAX AVG
1 Bed $1,350 $1,700 $1,525
2 Bed $1,300 $1,600 $1,438
2016 Rental Condos
101 purpose-built rental units were added to the rental
supply in 2015 and there were 394 new housing starts,
of which 76 are intended for the rental market. Based
on the size of the secondary rental market, it is evident
there is insufficient supply of rental housing to meet
the market’s demands. While basement suites help
satisfy rental demand, they also provide a means of affordable housing as rents are typically lower
than rental apartments and condos.
Market rents in the secondary market are higher than most purpose-built market
comparables and vary greatly in range, typically a result of rents being listed by owner-
investors who may lack necessary market intelligence or want to avoid 100% vacancy.