Sandy and the Big Climate Change Picture- Nickitas Georgas


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Sandy and the Big Climate Change Picture- Nickitas Georgas

  1. 1. Sandyand the Big “Climate Change” PictureNickitas Georgas11Stevens Institute of TechnologyPhilip Orton1, Penelope Howell2, Vincent Saba3, AlanBlumberg1, Larry Yin1With contributions from Scott Glenn4, JohnManderson5, Josh Kohut4 and collaboratorsAP PHOTO/CHARLES SYKES
  2. 2. Observed global changes in extremes(since 1950) consistent with globalwarmingSpecial Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2012)• “It is likely that anthropogenic influences have led to warming of extremedaily minimum and maximum temperatures at the global scale.”• “It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic influence on increasingextreme coastal high water due to an increase in mean sea level.”• “There is medium confidence that anthropogenic influences havecontributed to intensification of extreme precipitation at the globalscale.” Increased confidence for North American downpours.But also:• Medium confidence that heat waves have increased in frequency andduration• Our extratropical Nor’Easters tracks have started moving further north• Low confidence in any observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more)increases in tropical cyclone activity (i.e., intensity, frequency, duration),after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.
  3. 3. IPCC World Economic ScenariosB1: Convergent, global, sustainable,service-oriented.A1B: Converging, balanced energy, moreefficient technology.A2: Fragmented, self-oriented, growingpopulation.
  4. 4. The effect on global temperatures1.82.83.4
  5. 5. SST increase between 1-3˚C by 2100
  6. 6. • Average tropical cyclone maximum windspeed is likely to increase in the NorthAtlantic Hurricane basin.• It is likely that the global frequency oftropical cyclones will either decrease orremain essentially unchanged.IPCC 2012
  7. 7. NOAA Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment:“We have very high confidence (>9 in 10 chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 0.2meters (8 inches) and no more than 2.0 meters (6.6 feet) by 2100.”NOAA 2012
  8. 8. NOAA 2012
  9. 9. But for Relative SLR:+ ~7” VLM in NE US+ ~9” weakening AMOC effect (A1B)=> > 1ft more by 2100NOAA 2012
  10. 10. Global: Ice Sheet Loss and Ocean WarmingMid-Atlantic: Global + Subsidence + Changes in North Atlantic Circulation1854-2006 average RSLRNOAA 2012
  11. 11. Potential Climate Effects on Sandy• Sallinger et al (2012) reports that the weakening ofAMOC predicted by Yin et al (2010) is alreadyhaving an impact in accelerating SLR rates in theMid-Atlantic “Hot Spot”• Part of the 5°F East Coast SST anomaly may havebeen due to manmade global warming.
  12. 12. Integrated systemof observing sensorsand forecast modelsTO OBSERVETO PREDICTTO COMMUNICATEWeatherCurrents for transportFlooding/GroundingsWavesWater Quality 1967 2011NYHOPS: New York Harbor Observing and Prediction SystemDavidson Laboratory Ocean Modeling and Forecasting+ +Real timeObservationsExternal dataand modelsDistributed Inflows andEffluents
  13. 13.
  14. 14. What if Sandy had come during HW at UER/WLIS?A scary thought for UER and LIS!
  15. 15. Sandy Metshift -9h
  16. 16. What if Sandy had come during HW at UER/WLIS?
  17. 17. Comparison of Sandy and Sandy@UER-HWflooding to the FEMA ABFEs.SIT April 2013
  18. 18. Flooding at the Battery
  19. 19. Flooding at the BatterySandy HW ~= 1% (100yr) < Sandy < 0.2% (500yr)
  20. 20. Flooding at Westchester Creek Mouth
  21. 21. Flooding at Westchester Creek MouthSandy <1% (100yr) < “SandyHW” < 0.2% (500yr)
  22. 22. IreneandSandy=TC Sandene?
  23. 23. Sandy on Steroids(Sandy with Irene’s SST)
  24. 24. Long Island Sound, Sandy, Climate Change,and the multiples of 3 (feet)And so on, beyond 2100.6 x 3 = 18ft If in 2100, under high SLR scenario: ~18.6ft MHHW5 x 3 = 15ft If in 2100, under median SLR scenario: ~15.6ft MHHW4 x 3 = 12ft If with 8˚ warmer, Irene SST: ~12.0ft MHHW3 x 3 = 9ft If at previous high tide: ~10.0ft MHHW2 x 3 = 6ft Peak Observed level during Sandy: ~6.5ft MHHWAt King’s Point, Western Long Island SoundMHHW
  25. 25. Sound water* overtops the USACE hurricane barrier.Stamford suffers a 1938 or 1944. (50% more people).
  26. 26. Storm Climatology plus 1m SLR Changes:North Atlantic OceanSandyLin et al. 2012As SLR happens, flooding like Sandy’s are expected to become more frequent.By 2050, the US population that will be exposed to inundation due to an 1/100year storm will double to nearly 9 million people
  27. 27. Millstone Power Plant Intake Water Temperature 1976-2011Annual Mean (0C)What about something closer? Like LIS. Ack.: Howell
  28. 28. NULLShipBottomtemperatureBottomcomplexitySolarelevation“Upwelling”SedimentdaylightButterfish Habitat Model 2.0Combined fisherman & scientist modelAck.: Manderson
  29. 29. Analyzing History to Project and Manage the Future.Simulating the effects of climate on Long Island SoundPhysical Environment and Living Marine Resources.PIs: Georgas, Saba, Howell, Orton, Blumberg
  30. 30. We will simulate the LIS physical environment from the 70s on
  31. 31. …with the NYHOPS high-resolution model, in full 3D physics
  32. 32. Howell and Auster (2012)…and explore links between habitat changes, climate, andLMR regime shifts
  33. 33. …and then simulate the LIS ecoscape over the course of thiscentury by coupling NYHOPS to IPCC-class global climatemodels from GFDL to inform management and adaptation.
  34. 34. Thank You! Nickitas: