"Reaching Voters Where They Are" - California Labor Federation microtargeting panel at Netroots Nation 2013
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"Reaching Voters Where They Are" - California Labor Federation microtargeting panel at Netroots Nation 2013

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In 2012, California unions defeated Prop 32, an anti-union measure funded by the Koch Brothers and other corporate interests, by using a unique combination of sophisticated microtargeting and online ...

In 2012, California unions defeated Prop 32, an anti-union measure funded by the Koch Brothers and other corporate interests, by using a unique combination of sophisticated microtargeting and online advertising to supplement a traditional field and media campaign. This effort led to a 13-point victory and produced down-ticket effects, including passing Prop 30 (which taxes the rich) and capturing two-thirds Democratic majorities in the State legislature. This session at Netroots Nation 2013 discussed how labor used ground-breaking microtargeting online and in the field to connect with new and hard-to-reach younger voters who watch little TV or traditionally engage on political issues.

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  • This and the next slide are meant to address the question of how exactly voters were affected by contacts, both to support the validity of the effect estimates for vote choice and to understand more about the results of contacts for the sake of future campaignsThese slides are set up to be independent of those before or after, and so could be skipped/dropped if necessary for time constraints.Vote recall is used as a proxy for awareness of Prop 32, since those who were already familiar with the measure are more likely to remember how they voted better than those who hadn’t heard of it before November 6.
  • We produced versions of the report’s figures that include only internal MMV contacts, to simplify presentation and sharpen the focus on the results of the MMV’s own contacts. For those not familiar with confidence intervals, the easiest way to explain them is to say that:They’re provided to indicate the level of uncertainty we have about our estimatesThis uncertainty comes from extrapolating upwards from a survey sample, and can be understand as our expectation about what would happen if we repeated the survey and analysis with new samplesThe point estimate given is the median of this distribution: we would expect the result to be higher than that about half the time, and lower the other halfThe intervals represent the range between the 5th and 95th percentiles: we would expect a lower value only 5 of 100 times, and a higher value only 5 of 100 timesIn case someone asks about the correlation/causation question, note the random assignment of contacts and controls within the targeting universe.Walk contacts have high uncertainty because the contact rate in survey was very low (~2%, vs 35% for phone and 39% for mail)Much of the uncertainty in mail effects comes from experimental treatment design---everyone in mail treatment group treated the same (to avoid selection bias) even though only about half actually received mail.
  • Net votes reflect a swing in the Yes/No vote margin on Prop 32 from voters persuaded by the campaignAs modeled, each persuaded voter is equal to two net votes, since they are one less Yes vote and one more No voteMain takeaway is that this is a very impressive number---if the race were as close as expected, would have been decisiveThis is only a partial reflection of the campaign’s total impact, and doesn’t include:Additional turnout (in general as well as on this question specifically) from GOTV outreachSecondary influence of persuaded voters on friends and familyTargeted online adsTargeting scores and messaging research shared with external partners

"Reaching Voters Where They Are" - California Labor Federation microtargeting panel at Netroots Nation 2013 "Reaching Voters Where They Are" - California Labor Federation microtargeting panel at Netroots Nation 2013 Presentation Transcript

  • Reaching VotersWhere they Are:THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’SWINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGYrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Million More Voters:An OverviewReaching Voters Where They Are:THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’SWINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGYrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • The 2012 Campaign:Our ApproachReaching Voters Where They Are:THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’SWINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGYrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • • The goal:– Continue relationship with disengaged progressives– Win on issues that MMV targets care about• Questions:– What issue(s) do we focus on?– Who do we communicate with?– How do we reach them?– What do we say?The 2012 MMV Approachrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • A Year of LearningPhase Date Who Finding1. ExploratoryFocus GroupsDecember2011PreviousMMVtargets“Make it clear that the initiative is deceptiveand that corporate elites are using theinitiative process to trick voters into givingthem more power.”2. Baseline Survey March 2012 Likely votersSuperPAC Expansion Act has greateruncertainty; Sales Tax Act has greater support.3. SpecialExemptionsFocus GroupsApril 2012 Likely voters “Exemption” beats “loophole”.Best arguments :Cost, Unrestricted SuperPACs, Who’s Behind It4. SpecialExemptionsSurveyMay 2012 Likely voters5. Microtargeting I June 2012 Likely voters Identify “persuadables”rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • A Year of LearningPhase Date Who Finding6. Phone EIP August 2012Persuasiontargets“Special Exemptions Act” increases recall7. PersuasionMessagingSurveySeptember2012PersuasiontargetsThe best “villain” depends on party8. Microtargeting IISeptember2012Likely voters Update model; create model for TV watching9. GOTV MessagingSurveySeptember2012GOTVtargets“Special Exemptions Act” matters forlikelihood of voting10. Post-ElectionSurveyNovember2012PersuasiontargetsDid it work?!rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Taking it to the FieldReaching Voters Where They Are:THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’SWINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGYrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Field Campaign At a GlancePaid program• 14 field offices• 13 week program• 500+ field organizers (increased to 800+ for GOTV)• More than 720,000 contacts, over half a million NO on32 IDsVolunteer program – Alliance for a Better Californiapartners hosted phoning & walks statewide• Over 65 different locations by GOTVrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Statewide Props 32/30 Vote by CountySTATEWIDE VOTEProp NO YES32 6,940,282 - 57% 5,328,207 - 43%30 5,584,785 - 45% 6,902,562 - 55%CaliforniaNov 2012ElectionProp 32NoYesProp 30YesNorgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Field Campaign Components• Targeting & planning• Convening & coordination of Alliance partners and allieswith field programs• Support & training for volunteer field programs ofAlliance partners and allies• Large-scale, paid direct voter contact operation• Data collaboration and technologyrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Lessons Learned• Statewide scale for a statewide issue is key• Tailoring plan & program to individual strengths &capacities of participating organizations was very effective• Close collaboration of Alliance partners with field programsmade us stronger & more efficient – volunteer programs,data management, divvying up work• Good modeling, messaging & ads to amplify our messagehelped tremendouslyrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Direct MailReaching Voters Where They Are:THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’SWINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGYrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Nothing 32 Mail MMV MailNo TVNothing 32 MailSome MailTVNo MailSome TVNothing 32 Mail TV OnlyNo TVRarelyWatch TV4+ HoursDaily TVOppose Undecided Supportrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Direct Mail Created for Low TV Watchersrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Direct Mail Created for Low TV Watchersrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Online Tools &TacticsReaching Voters Where They Are:THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’SWINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGYrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Look Familiar to Anyone?Plus, 56% of women and 65% of men skip TVcommercials!• rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Why Digital? Media Consumption Shifts Towards DigitalDigital is now thethird most popularnews consumptionmedium.Video is a large partof this consumptionpattern and growinglargerPew Internet “How Media Consumption has changed since 2000” 6.24.10Pew Internet “Demographics of internet users” May 2011Online Video Behaviorrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Truly Integrated Targetingrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio• List Match: Swimming in the cookie pool– We didn’t approximate common targeting, we did it– List matching lets us customize ads, not shoot for lowest-common denominator messaging like on TV• Complementary display and banner ads– We got the impressions and impact we needed with the budgetwe had• Synchronous multi-channel communications– Online wasn’t a silo, and it wasn’t “new” media. It was aninterlocking piece of a broader voter contact program
  • Effective Ads for Our Targetsrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Effective Ads in Post-TV World• Moving past TV does NOT mean moving past video…• It means connecting with the public where they are, not where wewish they were…• The right ad creative delivered to the right audience produces realresults.rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Targeted outreach moved polling numbersVOTER TARGETING WORKED: In late October, the under-35 demographic wasbehind in the polls. We used voter-file targeting to specifically isolate thisgroup, and designed ad creative to appeal to a more youthful audience. Thismirrored offline direct-mail efforts.22% Swing: In the days following this change in strategy, we saw a movement ofup to 22% in favorability for the NO side.rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • The 2012 Campaign:ResultsReaching Voters Where They Are:THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’SWINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGYrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Proposition 32 Recallrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Proposition 32 Votergb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • How Many Voters WerePersuaded?• MMV walk, phone, and mail persuasion accounts for about half the 1.64 millionvote margin.• Does not include online persuasion, GOTV, or network effects.ModeVotersContactedEstimatedEffectNet No VotesPercent ofMarginMMV Walk 194,779 11.98% 46,669 2.8%MMV Phone 556,837 4.07% 45,327 2.8%MMV Mail 3,041,288 11.80% 717,744 43.7%Total 3,792,904 — 809,740 49.3%rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
  • Questions?Reaching Voters Where They Are:THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’SWINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGYrgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio