The family history world in 10 years time

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“The Family History World in 10 Years Time” - This talk looks in the crystal ball to discuss changing research trends, a changing audience (have you noticed that today's genealogists are younger than …

“The Family History World in 10 Years Time” - This talk looks in the crystal ball to discuss changing research trends, a changing audience (have you noticed that today's genealogists are younger than they used to be?) and a look at changes being made now by “the cloud” and the growth of handheld devices that are “online all the time” as it affects genealogy.

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  • 1. The Family History World in 10 Years By Dick Eastman
  • 2. Today’s Powerpoint slides are available at: http://www.eogn.co m/handouts/10year s
  • 3. Introduction History The Present The Future 1 2 3 4
  • 4. Introduction
  • 5. History Genealogy 0.5 •Original records •Compiled Sources (typically without source citations) •Elitism (everyone looking for a royal connection) •No microfilm, no microfiche, no easy travel, no archives open at 2 AM •Typically expensive •A few genealogy societies were created, mostly for elitists Up to about 1920
  • 6. History Genealogy 1.0 Genealogy 0.5 1920 - 1980 •Microfilming started in 1930s, a remarkable improvement •Growth of genealogy societies •Popular books, especially Alex Haley’s “Roots” in the 1960s, which became a #1 best seller •Reference books, sources
  • 7. History Genealogy 1.0 Genealogy 0.5 Genealogy 2.0 1980 - 2013 •Digital records •Social Networking •Television programs •Includes traditional genealogists and an expanded new audience
  • 8. Genealogy 1.0 Genealogy 3.0 Genealogy 0.5 Genealogy 2.0
  • 9. Genealogy 1.0 Genealogy 3.0 Genealogy 0.5 Genealogy 2.0 2014 and Beyond
  • 10. The Present
  • 11. The Present Impossible to determine but... • over 500 million names on FamilySearch.org • 6 billion on Ancestry.com • And many more on other genealogy web sites How many records are online today?
  • 12. The Present • Plus: – Google Books – Twitter – Facebook – Wikis (WeRelate.org) – Bloggers – And more…
  • 13. A Look at the Future
  • 14. A Look at the Future
  • 15. A Look at the Future 2014 – 2024 Tough to predict, but we can expect:
  • 16. More records online Online, everywhere, all the time New and better software A changing audience 1 2 3 4 In the Next 10 Years
  • 17. More records online1
  • 18. More records online1 No surprises here! Records will be online for better access …and for records preservation Mostly images of original records …with transcriptions
  • 19. More records online1 Will include… Most all present-day microfilms, books, and paper records from local records offices Archives of email Archives of Facebook and other online sites
  • 20. More records online1 These will fulfill two purposes: 1. Records for future genealogists 2. Archival copies for government offices
  • 21. More records online Online, everywhere, all the time 1 2
  • 22. • All shared information is moving to the cloud.
  • 23. • All shared information is moving to the cloud. • Access is available anytime, anywhere. • From a desktop computer, from a laptop computer, from a tablet, from a smartphone, or from any future devices not yet invented.
  • 24. More records online Online, everywhere, all the time New and Better Software 1 2 3
  • 25. • New and better software • Cloud-based • Collaborative • Works on any platform: Windows, Macintosh, Linux, Apple’s iOS, Android, and future
  • 26. More records online Online, everywhere, all the time New and Better Software A changing audience 1 2 3 4
  • 27. • The genealogy audience is getting younger! • Driven by technology? • Driven by television and other mass media • Today, genealogy is cool!
  • 28. • This future audience has different interests: • Most future genealogists will be interested in stories of certain ancestors, may not care to know all ancestors • Probably won't care about pedigree charts
  • 29. • This future audience has different interests: • More interested in individuals’ stories • Not classified by age, gender, or nationality • May not join societies
  • 30. • In one recent example of a group of college-aged genealogists/historians: • 40% were born outside the country • 90% had one or more grandparents born outside the country • Census records are useless to them!
  • 31. • In one recent example of a group of college-aged genealogists/historians: • 50% classified themselves as non-white • 50% did not share a surname with their fathers!
  • 32. We need global resources (India, Pakistan, Jamaica, Nigeria, etc)
  • 33. These are our future genealogists!
  • 34. Changing Technology Dictates the Access to Records of Interest
  • 35. • According to Hewlett-Packard Sr. VP, Shane Robison in his keynote address at RootsTech2011:• Sales of desktop computers are declining worldwide every year • Sales of laptop computers are slowly climbing every year • Sales of tablet & handheld computers are skyrocketing!
  • 36. • Within 5 years, 60% of all Internet access worldwide will be by people who do not own a “regular” computer. • That percentage is expected to increase further
  • 37. Digitize Everything! • Tomorrow’s genealogy world: • Many more records online • Different demographics of genealogists • Many do not share surnames with fathers How will your society serve his audience?
  • 38. To forecast the next 10 years: Traditional libraries will cease to exist
  • 39. A Look at the Future • Within ten years, all of today’s books will all be digitized and made available to everyone at any time, anywhere. In many cases, a small fee will be charged. • That is ALL of today’s books. Travel to distant libraries will be unnecessary.
  • 40. A Look at the Future • Libraries will be available on tablet computers, cell phones, laptop computers, desktop computers, and on technology we have not yet invented
  • 41. A Look at the Future • “Libraries” will be online, open 24 hours a day/7 days a week, available to everyone in the world with an Internet connection (which will be most everyone)
  • 42. A Look at the Future • Societies MAY play a larger role than ever in providing information about local historical topics and residents. • Societies will be able to derive revenue from online publishing, the same as in traditional publishing on paper.
  • 43. A Look at the Future • Individuals will also play a major role in making records available via electronic libraries. • Many “cottage industries” will spring up to provide information of interest to others.
  • 44. A Look at the Future • As to your genealogy information: – Make it available in digital format – Share it with others – Make numerous backups!
  • 45. A Look at the Future • Properly cared for, the information you save can be preserved for centuries
  • 46. www.eogn.com
  • 47. Today’s Powerpoint slides are available at: http://www.eogn.co m/handouts/10year s