Thin films in India(april 18,2012)

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  • Thin films in India(april 18,2012)

    1. 1. Will Thin Films win in India? Madhavan Nampoothiri April 19, 2012 Berlin, Germany
    2. 2. About RESolve• Advisory firm with strong capabilities in Strategic, Regulatory , Commercial and Technical aspects of renewable energy projects• Founded by professionals from India and Germany with strong global exposure• Specific focus on Solar PV and Wind in India• Assistance in – Market Entry strategy for solar firms to India – Market Intelligence on the Indian Solar PV sector – Concept-to-Commissioning of PV projects – Policy and Regulatory issues
    3. 3. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion
    4. 4. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion
    5. 5. Sun Shines on India - Solar Resource availability - 4-7 kWh/Sq.m/day in most parts of India - Energy supply-demand imbalance - 80% of oil is imported - High reliance on imported coal - Peak power deficit of 12.7% - 50% of India’s population has very little access to electricity - GHG emissions - Policy and Regulatory support(MNRE and various state governments) India Solar PV growth trajectory 600 482 500 446 400 MWp 300 Annual PV Installations 200 Cumulative Installations 100 27 36 9 9 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Year Source: MNREPredominantly ground-mounted systems
    6. 6. Policies and Status Policy(Grid- Capacity Projects Commissi Domestic connected PV) addition targets allocated oning content status(31st status(31st requirement( March 2012) March DCR) 2012) JNNSM 10 GWp by 2022 ~ 600 MWp ~ 150 C-Si : Cells allotted in Phase MWp and Modules 1(including TF : No migration mandate projects) Rajasthan 350 MWp by Nil Nil No 2017 Gujarat 500 MWp by ~ 500 MWp ~ 300 No 2014 MWp Madhya Pradesh RPO targets None. 200 MWp Nil Same as planned for JNNSM 2012-13 Orissa RPO targets 25 MWp Nil No Maharashtra RPO targets 150 MWp Nil; In No process Karnataka 100 MWp by None. In process Nil No 2016 Regulations Renewable Purchase 25 GW(PV and Not applicable ~43 MWp No Obligations(RPO) Thermal) by in Private 2022 sector
    7. 7. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion
    8. 8. C-Si dominates in production….• C-Si Module manufacturing capacity ~ 1500 MW• C-Si Cell manufacturing capacity ~ 600 MW• Thin film manufacturing capacity – Negligible – Moser Baer, Shurjo Energy and HHV Solar ....but, Thin Film dominates in installations Technology selection under JNNSM Gujarat State policy - 60-70% thin films Installations in MWp 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 - India bucks the global trend Total IREDA NVVN - Thin films grabbed more Type of scheme than 60% market share C-Si Thin Films Source: MNRE
    9. 9. India – a good export market for global TF companies a-Si/μc-Si CIGS CdTeDupont USA MiaSolé USA First Solar USAECD/Uni-solar USA Q-Cells(Solibro) Germany Abound Solar USAMasdar PV Germany SolarFrontier JapanNexPower ChinaSchott Solar GermanySharp JapanT-Solar Spain Note: The above is a partial list of TF companies in India -CdTe very popular, First Solar has high market share(about 200 MWp) - a-Si, despite lower efficiencies, has gained acceptance -CIGS also has takers
    10. 10. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion
    11. 11. Growth Drivers Technology -Temperature coefficient -Spectral response Cost Financing - Lower module - Ease of cost financing- Inexpensive land through EXIM/ECB route
    12. 12. 1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?3. What is driving the growth? a. Technology4. What could happen?
    13. 13. Thin Film Vs c-Si Advantages Disadvantages• Temperature coefficient • Conversion efficiencies• Better performance under • Area requirement diffuse light conditions • Higher BOS requirement• Higher Energy Yield • Breakage• Faster energy payback • Aging behavior not known• Module grounding not • Materials shortage/toxicity required for frameless modules
    14. 14. Temperature coefficient & Spectral response – The TF USP.. Efficiency drop at elevated temperatures 14% 13% Cconversion efficiency 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Temperature(Deg C) a-Si CdTe CIGS C-Si(Mono) c-Si(Multi) - Higher theoretical TF • Better performance under diffuse energy yield during peak light; lesser shading effect season • Higher energy yield
    15. 15. The result : Higher energy yield for TF Source: GTM Research - Theoretically, TF consistently generating more electricityBut..- First Solar raised the warranty outlay for modules used in hotter regions- Anxiety about long term performance of TF is growing
    16. 16. 1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?3. What is driving the growth? b. Costs4. What could happen?
    17. 17. Module cost : C-Si closing in, but TF still maintains some advantage. Spot price(Euro/Wp) 2.25 2.05 1.85 1.65Euro/Wp 1.45 1.25 1.05 0.85 0.65 0.45 Avg C-Si(Germany) Avg C-Si(Japan/Korea) Avg c-Si(China/Taiwan) CdTe Silicon Tandem(a-Si/Micro-Si) Amorphous Silicon -CIGS price/Wp closer to c-Si Source: pvxchange.com and others
    18. 18. Land, BoS and O&M Costs – Disadvantage for Thin Films BOS cost comparison : c-Si v CdTe $13,000 higher for Thin Film plant Source: GTM ResearchLand, BOS and O&M high Still …• Land requirement higher for Thin Films(Leads to more Overall cost lower than c-Si exposed area – more cleaning, more manpower • Land cost in India is negligible requirement) • Higher BOS cost offset by lower module• BoS requirement higher because of lower efficiencies price (More BOS means more Strings, more cable, more • O&M Labor cost low Fuses and more breakdown possibilities) Marketing mantra for TF -$/kWh and not $/Wp
    19. 19. 1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?3. What is driving the growth? c. Financing4. What could happen?
    20. 20. Cost of Financing• Local Content Requirement for C-Si, but not for TF.• Project financing – very challenging to secure• Indian banks are more comfortable with recourse-to-balance sheet financing• EXIM, ECB banks offer attractive interest rates• Even after hedging and insurance, cost of capital at 8-9% as against 13%+ for local financing But…. US EXIM financed company – Abound Solar has shut down production
    21. 21. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion
    22. 22. Thin films domination to continue, but there are clouds in the horizon• JNNSM - Round 2 : 350 MW allotted – 300 MWp of projects will be in Rajasthan – At least 250 MW expected to go for thin films• State solar policies(Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan) – TF likely to dominate• But questions about stability of performance at high temperature set to increase• Bankability of TF companies(eg. Abound Solar) is also a concern
    23. 23. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What could happen?5. Conclusion
    24. 24. Takeaways..• Thin film technology adopted by majority of Indian developers• Yield, lower capital cost and better financing options driving TF growth in India• Local content mandates have had limited impact• Global TF manufacturers benefitting from India’s solar boom…• … but the Indian TF manufacturing ecosystem is yet to evolve
    25. 25. Conclusion – Thin film will win in India, if..• Bankability questions are properly answered. – First Solar performance in high temperature conditions – Abound Solar’s capabilities• Higher energy yield is proven in the field over a period of time• Thin Film remains cost competitive(land cost, capital cost, O&M cost) relative to c-SiBottom line – Technology with best $/kWh will win
    26. 26. Thank youMadhavan Nampoothiri +91-98848-29214madhavan@re-solve.in www.re-solve.in

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