Building a complete manufacturing eco-system in India - Solarcon2011

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  • What capacity(modules)? So 2008-2010 is enough ..
  • http://solarpv.tv/watch/market-update-with-ihs-isuppli-the-pv-industry-and-the-solar-markets-in-2011-supplydemand-pricing-margins.html.. First two bars are empty for India currently… Unable to find data for 2011 module production capacity in India
  • Not relevant because this is only for california. http://www.greenworldinvestor.com/2011/03/04/list-of-major-solar-inverter-manufacturers-competition-rising/, http://www.pv-tech.org/news/ims_research_european_pv_inverter_manufactures_dominate_top_10_rankings,http://newenergynews.blogspot.com/2011/06/todays-study-suns-hardware-business.html, http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gOR_DQvuLEI/TfqJrt72vqI/AAAAAAAApHs/231OlekEtHs/s1600/6-911a.png
  • Have to give the list differently. http://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinese_firm_breaks_into_vlsi_researchs_top_10_pv_equipment_supplier_rankin (country of origin)
  • Building a complete manufacturing eco-system in India - Solarcon2011

    1. 1. Building a complete manufacturing eco- system in India November 10,2011 Madhavan Nampoothiri Energy Alternatives India
    2. 2. “Has India missed the chance tobecome a PV manufacturing super- power?”
    3. 3. Overview• Global PV manufacturing - Where does India stand today? – Crystalline Silicon(Polysilicon to modules) – Thin Films – Balance of Systems(Inverters) – PV Manufacturing Equipment• What are the challenges to become a serious player?• Is policy support sufficient to make that happen?
    4. 4. Solar PV – The evolution..Annual Installations Annual production - Modules90% 60%80% 50%70% Japan60% 40% EU50% USA Japan 30%40%30% 20% EU Rest of the20% World Rest of the 10% World10% USA China/Taiwan China/Taiwan0% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: EPIA Source: EPIACumulative Global Installations(2010): Share of global PV Production capacity(2010):Europe –30 GW (over 75%) China – more than 50%India – About 30 MW (less than 0.1%) India – Less than 5% (in modules)
    5. 5. Global PV Manufacturing : Charging ahead!! C- Silicon Thin Films 60 China: 4.5 16 GW 54.0 52.3 4 50 India: 47.3 Moser Baer 60 MW 0.6 3.5 HHV (a-Si) GW 41.5 40.0 40 36.7 3Capacity (GW) Capacity (GW) 32.9 2.5 Shurjo 30 28.2 China: 20 GW 2 20 1.5 India: 1 10 1.2 GW 0.5 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 PolySilicon Wafer Cell Module CdTe CIGS a- Si Source: iSuppli(May 2011) Source: GTM Research(May 2011)
    6. 6. Global Inverters manufacturing: Not left behind.. Top Global Inverter ManufacturersInverter Production Capacity vs. Solar PV Installed Capacity SMA SMA-35% Power One 45 SMA-40% Market Share(E) Kaco Market 40 Share Fronius 35 SMA-40% REFUsol Market 30 Share Satcon 25 Danfoss 20 Solarmax 15 Delta 10 Advanced Energy 5 Indian Scenario 0 2009 2010 2011 AEG Invertor capacity(GW) Installations(GW) Delta Electronics (WIP) DB Electronics
    7. 7. PV Manufacturing equipment : European domination continues.. Rank Company Revenues Country ($Million) 1 Applied Materials 1495 USA 2 Centrotherm Photovoltaics AG 825 Germany 3 GT Solar Incorporated 775 USA 4 Meyer Burger^ 735 Switzerland 5 Gebr.Schmid GmbH+Co 570 Germany 6 Ulvac, Inc. 380 Japan 7 Roth & Rau AG* 325 Germany 8 RENA Sondermaschinen GmbH 300 Germany 9 48th Research Institute of CETC 295 China 10 Oerlikon Solar 195 Switzerland^ Second after acquisition of R&R* To be acquired by Meyer BurgerR&R sold CdTe coating division to undisclosed Chinese buyerList includes both c-Si and Thin Film capacities Source: VLSI Research HHV in India
    8. 8. Indian PV manufacturing – The challengesFinancialOperational Market
    9. 9. Market Challenges – Dramatic price drops Manufacturing Operations $4.50 Highlights: $4.25 $4.00 $3.50 Excess capacity - Commodity manufacturing(almost) $3.00 - Standard off-the-shelf technology available $2.50 $2.60 $2.20 $2.00 $1.50 Key success factor: $1.20 $1.00 $1.00 $0.70 • Lead times in commissioning a unit $0.50 $0.45 $- $0.21 • Utilization rates 2008 2009 2010 2011(Q4) 2012(ASP • Infrastructure(ex. electricity) Estimate) Module($/W) Cell($/W) Wafer($/W) Polysilicon($/W) C-Si Investments and returns Cost Drivers Poly Silicon Ingot & Cells Module Module 8.0% 0.3% 89.0% 0.7% WaferInvestments/ Medium Medium High Low Cell 37.0% 3.0% 52.0% 5.0%MWOptimum Very High Medium Low Very Low Wafer 30.0% 4.0% 60.0% 4.0%productionscale Polysilicon 45.0% 26.0% 17.0% 10.0%Margins High Medium Low Low 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Capex Depreciation Electricity Materials Labor Cost Others
    10. 10. Market challenges Manufacturing Operations- Narrowing gap with c-Si Highlights - R&D intensive, not commodity manufacturing- Lower conversion efficiency - Standard production technology not available- a-Si : limited efficiency upside - Successful CdTe manufacturing tech proprietary- Cadmium : a carcinogen Success factors- CIGS : Not cost competitive yet • Lead times • High R&D • Sourcing of rare earth metals/raw materials Thin Investments and returns Films Cost Drivers a- Si CdTe CIGS CdTeCapital High Medium High CIGSInvestments a SiOptimum Scale Low Low Lowof Investment 0 20 40 60 80 100 Raw material and consumables Capital Depreciation & amortization Energy Labour Research & Development Others
    11. 11. Policy support for Manufacturing Chinese Advantage Ontario, Canada • Low interest loans (4.8% in Jan 2011) - Local content • No principal or interest payments for requirement first 5 years Italy • Scale of loans much higher (over 60% of - 10% higher FiT CAPEX funded) Chinese Advantage for made in EU • Local content mandated for • Low interest loans (4.8% in Jan 2011) manufacturing • No principal or interest payments for first 5 yearsUSA • Scale of loans much higher (over 60% of CAPEX India - Local content requirement under-Sunshot Initiative JNNSM-- DOE loans(eg. Solyndra) funded) -Incentives under Rajasthan policy • Local content mandated for manufacturing- Duty exemptions
    12. 12. Half glass full or half glass empty?• Global PV manufacturing - Where does India stand ? o Crystalline Silicon – Negligible, but relatively better o Thin Films - Negligible o PV Manufacturing Equipment – Negligible o Inverters - Negligible• What are the challenges? o Market - Global excess capacity o Operational – Scaling up fast, continuous cost reduction, efficiency increases o Financial – Huge capex outlays, Low cost financing• Is policy support sufficient? o More can be done• Silver lining – We can only get better!!
    13. 13. How can we get around the challenges?• Shammy Khan, VP Strategic Markets, Flextronics - "PV manufacturing- Outsource vs. InSource"• Dr. VS Gangadhara Rao, Lanco Solar, "PV Manufacturing Technology Options“• Prasanth Sakhamuri, HHV Solar, "The case for equipment manufacturing in India - experience with thin film equipment & lines & the potential for cost reduction“• Navakrishna Akkineni, Solar Semi, "Experience with Indian Manufacturers – Strategy & Opportunity"
    14. 14. Thank You

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