STEMinars Robert D. Cormia Foothill College
STEMinars <ul><li>Pedagogy for informal learning </li></ul><ul><li>Four component model </li></ul><ul><ul><li>S cience </l...
Seminars Pros and Cons <ul><li>Current material -  recency </li></ul><ul><li>Topical focus –  applied context </li></ul><u...
Seminar Examples <ul><li>PARC forum  – technology and society </li></ul><ul><li>Stanford Energy Seminar  – climate / energ...
Seminars as Open Educational Resources <ul><li>PARC Forum  –  Streaming AV </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Seminar  -  iTunesU </...
The STEM in STEMinar <ul><li>S cience – as foundational framework </li></ul><ul><li>T echnology – the emphasis (interest) ...
Better STEMinar Practices <ul><li>S cientific foundation (discovery) </li></ul><ul><li>E ngineering know-how (nuts and bol...
STEMinar Examples  <ul><li>The  Science  of Climate Change </li></ul><ul><li>Electric vehicles, fuel cells, and  EMF </li>...
Learning Goals Up Front <ul><li>Tell your audience  what they will learn </li></ul><ul><li>Share the  field of science  in...
Wrap Up Quiz at the End <ul><li>You need answers to five questions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What was the  (S) cience / knowle...
Solar Energy - earth’s Heat http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
250 years of Carbon Emissions  It took  125 years  to  burn the first trillion barrels of oil  – we’ll burn the next trill...
Rising CO 2  over 50 Years http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html   see-saw swings in CO 2  result ...
Temperatures over 1000 Years http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm
Ice Cores – Story of Vostok
Vostok Ice Core Data <ul><li>A perfect correlation between CO 2 , temperature, and sea level </li></ul><ul><li>For every o...
GHGs and Vostok Data James Kirchner Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley
Dials on the Thermostat GHGs force energy into the planet, surface warming leads to feedbacks Thermal inertia Climate feed...
Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming Margaret S. Torn and John Harte AGU...
Ocean Acidification and CO 2 <ul><li>250 years of fossil fuel combustion </li></ul><ul><li>300,000 G tons  C,  1 trillion ...
Understanding CO 2  and pH CO 2  + CaCO 3  + H 2 O => 2(HCO 3 ) -  + 2Ca 2+    Dissolving CO 2  into seawater produces bic...
Ocean Acidification http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification
Peak Oil Production <ul><li>M. King Hubbert’s famous 1956 prediction! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Peak oil production  around 20...
Peak Oil –  ‘After the Crash’ http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
World Oil Production History
Oil Production – Reserves From ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005
Logistic Analysis  of Oil Production <ul><li>Logistic analysis is how ultimate production estimates are made. </li></ul><u...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Electric Vehicles <ul><li>EMF – work without heat </li></ul><ul><li>250 to 333 watt-hours per mile  </li></ul><ul><li>How ...
Electric Vehicles (EVMT) <ul><li>In the US we use 400 million gallons of gasoline a day  (400 x 10 6  gallons/day) </li></...
US GDP/VMT VMT data from green car congress => http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/us-vehicle-mile.html
Energy Efficiency/Liquidity <ul><li>US buildings use 60% of all electricity </li></ul><ul><li>Could we be  40% more effici...
Wind Power – Real Power
Why Wind is the Answer to EV <ul><li>One motor winds up – another unwinds </li></ul><ul><li>1MW of wind supports 1,000 EV ...
Vanadium redox flow cells Store excess power for later use! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanadium_redox_battery
 
Batteries and Fuel Cells <ul><li>Batteries </li></ul><ul><ul><li>NiMH </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lithium </li></ul></ul><u...
How Fuel Cells Work A fuel cell is a device that uses hydrogen (or hydrogen-rich fuel) and oxygen to create electricity. F...
Do Math in Public! <ul><li>Numeracy and computation </li></ul><ul><li>Analytical reasoning  ability </li></ul><ul><li>Deep...
Do Math in Public! Use numbers in your conversation to tell a story. Numeracy and computation is how we learn and test bot...
Exploratorium
OER – Open Educational Resources and Derivatives <ul><li>Learning objects </li></ul><ul><li>Open CC license </li></ul><ul>...
Creative Commons Licenses CreativeCommons.org
Summary <ul><li>STEMinars  is a  pedogical approach  to informal learning – it is simply a discipline </li></ul><ul><li>ST...
References <ul><li>STEMtech  –  http://www.league.org/2010cit/  </li></ul><ul><li>iTunesU  -  http://www.apple.com/educati...
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STEMinars

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  • M. King Hubbert’s famous 1956 prediction that oil production would peak in the US in the early 1970s – which in fact it did. Followers of Hubbert then calculated Peak oil production around 2004 – 2010. After that, more expensive to find / refine Not the end of oil, the end of easy oil! Economies dependent on oil / gas will struggle More expensive to find. After the midpoint, oil will be both technically challenging to recover, and more environmentally damaging, as with the tar sands in Alberta Canada. Ironically, the high price of oil will drive the exploration and recovery of more difficult oil.
  • The symmetric approach to world oil production follows the curves seen for US oil production, and coal production in Pennsylvania. This curve is in stark contrast to the expected 2% annual increase in demand based on economic development in China, India, as well as historical curves showing 2% CAGR. Using those curves, world oil demand is expected to increase by 50% during the period 2005 to 2025. Clearly, history has shown us that what we have observed in regional markets (North America) is more likely the better predictor of future oil production than simply estimating production based on CAGR demand.
  • M. King Hubert developed a mathematical approach to modeling oil production based on discovery curves, assumptions about the size of oil fields, and the shape of production and discovery curves (thought to be Gaussian curves, based on experience). These curves have been validated for US oil production, oil production in Norway, and coal production in Pennsylvania. In all these cases, production of assets continues, but becomes more expensive. World oil production references ‘conventional’ petroleum assets, but does factor in tar sands in Canada.
  • Oil production minus reserves shows the seriousness of the oil reserves problem. As demand for petroleum and gas increases while reserves grow slowly, and costs of production increase, could lead to serious deficits in liquid fuel, as well as natural gas, increasingly sought as a replacement for coal. Based on this graph, we are producing from 10 to 15 billion barrels more a year than are being added to reserves, a number increasing by 1 to 1.5 billion barrels every year. By 2025, that deficit will increase to 45 to 50 billion barrels a year, equal to total annual oil production. Using another method of calculation, starting with roughly one trillion barrels of oil in 2000, and subtracting an amount equal to 80 million barrels per day, and increasing by 2% per year, we will run out of oil in 2025 if no new reserves are found. Additionally, the ‘second trillion barrels of oil’ will be much more problematic than the first trillion, which could lead to both shortages and price spikes during the period from 2005 to 2030.
  • Wind power is real power. Germany and Europe have made significant investments in wind, where it can supply as much as 40% of electrical demands (peak power). Using methane as backup / peaking power and wind as a primary source. The cost of wind makes it very attractive – new GE wind turbines with 3.6 MWhr sell for 3.6 million dollars, or roughly $1 a watt, and at least 5 to 10 times cheaper than solar installations.
  • STEMinars

    1. 1. STEMinars Robert D. Cormia Foothill College
    2. 2. STEMinars <ul><li>Pedagogy for informal learning </li></ul><ul><li>Four component model </li></ul><ul><ul><li>S cience </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>T echnology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E ngineering </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>M athematics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Formal SLOs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(Seminar Learning Outcomes) or STEMinar Learning Objects </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. Seminars Pros and Cons <ul><li>Current material - recency </li></ul><ul><li>Topical focus – applied context </li></ul><ul><li>Keeps us ‘up to date’ </li></ul><ul><li>Lacks formal Learning Outcomes (SLOs) </li></ul><ul><li>Usually not foundational </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Prior knowledge required to participate </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Lacks mathematics rigor </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rarely do you see people work the numbers </li></ul></ul>
    4. 4. Seminar Examples <ul><li>PARC forum – technology and society </li></ul><ul><li>Stanford Energy Seminar – climate / energy / technology </li></ul><ul><li>California Academy of Science – technology and society </li></ul><ul><li>Webinars – virtually any current topic </li></ul><ul><li>Documentaries - virtually any current topic </li></ul>The Internet and World Wide Web are radically changing how education is delivered
    5. 5. Seminars as Open Educational Resources <ul><li>PARC Forum – Streaming AV </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Seminar - iTunesU </li></ul><ul><li>Webinars – WebEx </li></ul><ul><li>Conferences – AV and/or mp3 / mpeg </li></ul>
    6. 6. The STEM in STEMinar <ul><li>S cience – as foundational framework </li></ul><ul><li>T echnology – the emphasis (interest) </li></ul><ul><li>E ngineering – practical how-too context </li></ul><ul><li>M athematics – rarely practiced in public </li></ul>All too often we are merely shown the current context, nothing foundational, nor the toil that went into solving the problem, and instead just the end result (like Julia Childs). We need to see the mathematics and/or engineering equations that form the basis of engineering know-how, and or data (visualization) that drives home the main point. Solving problems in public is important!
    7. 7. Better STEMinar Practices <ul><li>S cientific foundation (discovery) </li></ul><ul><li>E ngineering know-how (nuts and bolts) </li></ul><ul><li>T echnology – how is it used, and why? </li></ul><ul><li>M athematics – supporting equations </li></ul>It’s your four basic food groups – applied to ‘everyday innovation’. If you blend a bit of each into your technical discussions, you get a much deeper learning outcome, one that has ‘current context’, relevance, and SLO rigor.
    8. 8. STEMinar Examples <ul><li>The Science of Climate Change </li></ul><ul><li>Electric vehicles, fuel cells, and EMF </li></ul><ul><li>How does wind energy save the day ? </li></ul><ul><li>Acidification of the ocean by GHGs </li></ul><ul><li>A glimpse at Peak Oil Production </li></ul><ul><li>Using math in public ( supportively ) </li></ul>
    9. 9. Learning Goals Up Front <ul><li>Tell your audience what they will learn </li></ul><ul><li>Share the field of science involved </li></ul><ul><li>Share the engineering challenges </li></ul><ul><li>What new technology will they learn? </li></ul><ul><li>Have handouts for one or two equations </li></ul>SLOs help us craft the roadmap of a presentation – informal quizzes at the end ensure we accomplished those goals – and create reflective learning opportunities.
    10. 10. Wrap Up Quiz at the End <ul><li>You need answers to five questions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What was the (S) cience / knowledge? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What (E) ngineering problems were solved? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What (T) echnologies are practiced, and how? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What was the (M) numeracy and computation? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How will *you* use or share this information? </li></ul></ul>Turn it into a contest – with groups of students competing for points. You can also have follow up questions that require research, synthesis and computation
    11. 11. Solar Energy - earth’s Heat http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
    12. 12. 250 years of Carbon Emissions It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’ll burn the next trillion in less than 30 years – why should you care?
    13. 13. Rising CO 2 over 50 Years http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html see-saw swings in CO 2 result from seasonal ‘biological production’
    14. 14. Temperatures over 1000 Years http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm
    15. 15. Ice Cores – Story of Vostok
    16. 16. Vostok Ice Core Data <ul><li>A perfect correlation between CO 2 , temperature, and sea level </li></ul><ul><li>For every one ppm CO 2 , sea level rises 1 meter, temp rises .05 C (global) </li></ul><ul><li>Process takes 100 years to add 1 ppm CO 2 , and reach thermal equilibrium </li></ul>This is not just a correlation, this is a complex and dynamic process , with multiple inputs. Touching one input affects all other inputs , and increases in temperature becomes a further feedback and multiplier of these inputs.
    17. 17. GHGs and Vostok Data James Kirchner Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley
    18. 18. Dials on the Thermostat GHGs force energy into the planet, surface warming leads to feedbacks Thermal inertia Climate feedbacks GHGs CO 2 CH 4 Ice / albedo Water vapor Clouds Temperature
    19. 19. Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming Margaret S. Torn and John Harte AGU GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L10703 Effect of Climate Feedbacks
    20. 20. Ocean Acidification and CO 2 <ul><li>250 years of fossil fuel combustion </li></ul><ul><li>300,000 G tons C, 1 trillion tons of CO 2 </li></ul><ul><li>pH of ocean is buffered by bicarbonate ion </li></ul><ul><li>Phytoplankton shells are made of carbonate and can’t easily form and persist below a pH of 8 </li></ul><ul><li>At ~450 ppm CO 2 , the ocean has become too acidic (pH) </li></ul>http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/acid2.htm
    21. 21. Understanding CO 2 and pH CO 2 + CaCO 3 + H 2 O => 2(HCO 3 ) -  + 2Ca 2+   Dissolving CO 2 into seawater produces bicarbonate and hydrogen ions – decreasing pH
    22. 22. Ocean Acidification http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification
    23. 23. Peak Oil Production <ul><li>M. King Hubbert’s famous 1956 prediction! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Peak oil production around 2004 - 2010 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>After that, more expensive to find / refine </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Economies built on oil / gas will struggle </li></ul><ul><li>Not the end of oil, the end of easy oil! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More expensive to find </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technically challenging </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Environmentally damaging </li></ul></ul><ul><li>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil </li></ul>
    24. 24. Peak Oil – ‘After the Crash’ http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
    25. 25. World Oil Production History
    26. 26. Oil Production – Reserves From ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005
    27. 27. Logistic Analysis of Oil Production <ul><li>Logistic analysis is how ultimate production estimates are made. </li></ul><ul><li>Plot production growth (percent) on Y-axis, and cumulative production on X axis. </li></ul><ul><li>1/t ‘modulation’ is the trend line for the bell shaped ‘peak oil curve’ </li></ul><ul><li>These are US oil data => </li></ul>http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4171
    28. 28. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
    29. 29. Electric Vehicles <ul><li>EMF – work without heat </li></ul><ul><li>250 to 333 watt-hours per mile </li></ul><ul><li>How flow cells / fuel cells work </li></ul><ul><li>Electricity from wind energy </li></ul><ul><li>How much wind do we need? </li></ul>EMF – Electro Motive Force – the ‘work’ that an electron does using voltage
    30. 30. Electric Vehicles (EVMT) <ul><li>In the US we use 400 million gallons of gasoline a day (400 x 10 6 gallons/day) </li></ul><ul><li>At 20 mpg that is 8 billion miles a day (8 x 10 9 ) </li></ul><ul><li>Cross check VMT chart ( 3.0 trillion miles/year ) </li></ul><ul><li>An electric car uses 0.25 to 0.33 KwHr per mile </li></ul><ul><li>US would need 2.5 billion KwHrs per day (EV) to replace gasoline (~25% e - charging overhead) </li></ul><ul><li>Where can we get 2.5 x 10 9 KwHrs per day? </li></ul>Building the Electron Economy – Robert D. Cormia 2010
    31. 31. US GDP/VMT VMT data from green car congress => http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/us-vehicle-mile.html
    32. 32. Energy Efficiency/Liquidity <ul><li>US buildings use 60% of all electricity </li></ul><ul><li>Could we be 40% more efficient with energy? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(40% is the typical efficiency goal for LEED) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>40% energy reduction of 60% electricity is 24% </li></ul><ul><li>24% of 10.5 x 10 9 KwHrs a day = 2.5 x 10 9 / day </li></ul><ul><li>~2.5 x 10 9 KwHrs/day is needed for EVMT </li></ul><ul><li>What we could gain *with efficiency alone* could (almost) *completely* replace gasoline </li></ul>Building the Electron Economy – Robert D. Cormia 2010
    33. 33. Wind Power – Real Power
    34. 34. Why Wind is the Answer to EV <ul><li>One motor winds up – another unwinds </li></ul><ul><li>1MW of wind supports 1,000 EV cars </li></ul><ul><li>See the math (calculation below) </li></ul><ul><li>Need to ‘forward store’ wind energy for later EV charging (like email distribution) </li></ul><ul><li>Predictive analytics , grid-scale storage , collaborative EV charging networks are key </li></ul>1 MW of wind => 24 hrs * 365 days * 1/3 utilization = 2.9 * 10^6 KwHrs annually 1,000 EVs * 10,000 miles / EV * 300 watt-hrs / mile = 3.0 * 10^6 KwHrs annually
    35. 35. Vanadium redox flow cells Store excess power for later use! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanadium_redox_battery
    36. 37. Batteries and Fuel Cells <ul><li>Batteries </li></ul><ul><ul><li>NiMH </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lithium </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Fuel cells </li></ul><ul><ul><li>DMFC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SOFC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hydrogen </li></ul></ul>http://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/alternative-fuels/fuel-cell.htm
    37. 38. How Fuel Cells Work A fuel cell is a device that uses hydrogen (or hydrogen-rich fuel) and oxygen to create electricity. Fuel cells are more energy-efficient than combustion engines and the hydrogen used to power them can come from a variety of sources. If pure hydrogen is used as a fuel, fuel cells emit only heat and water, eliminating concerns about air pollutants or greenhouse gases. http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/fc_animation_text.html
    38. 39. Do Math in Public! <ul><li>Numeracy and computation </li></ul><ul><li>Analytical reasoning ability </li></ul><ul><li>Deeper understanding of concepts </li></ul><ul><li>Understanding trend lines is critical </li></ul><ul><li>We need to use numbers in conversation </li></ul>
    39. 40. Do Math in Public! Use numbers in your conversation to tell a story. Numeracy and computation is how we learn and test both statistical and empirical (causal) relationships.
    40. 41. Exploratorium
    41. 42. OER – Open Educational Resources and Derivatives <ul><li>Learning objects </li></ul><ul><li>Open CC license </li></ul><ul><li>Metadata labeled </li></ul><ul><li>Easily shared </li></ul><ul><li>Easily integrated </li></ul>
    42. 43. Creative Commons Licenses CreativeCommons.org
    43. 44. Summary <ul><li>STEMinars is a pedogical approach to informal learning – it is simply a discipline </li></ul><ul><li>STEM are the four basic food groups </li></ul><ul><li>Always have learning goals up front </li></ul><ul><li>Have a quick ‘informal quiz’ at the end </li></ul><ul><li>Create, share, and use Open Educational Resources (OERS) with SLOs attached </li></ul>
    44. 45. References <ul><li>STEMtech – http://www.league.org/2010cit/ </li></ul><ul><li>iTunesU - http://www.apple.com/education/itunes-u/ </li></ul><ul><li>Exploratorium – http://www.exploratorium.edu/ </li></ul><ul><li>How Stuff Works - http://www.howstuffworks.com/ </li></ul><ul><li>Creative Commons – http://creativecommons.org/ </li></ul><ul><li>PARC – http://www/parc.com/archives/ </li></ul>
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