In the Necessary Revolution, Peter Senge introduces the 80:20 challenge as a ‘stretch goal’ to reduce GHG emissions (CO 2 ) by 80% in 20 years, to avoid changes in the atmosphere (450 ppm CO 2 that would warm the earth beyond what is considered ‘tolerable’ (2 degrees Celsius). Senge further states there is no credible plan to achieve this. In the 2012 Presidential campaign, both candidates and a wealthy PAC spoke of energy independence, yet did not address the fundamental dependence of fossil fuels, which are the source of GHG emissions. Further, our energy system is largely based on a ‘hunter-gatherer’ model of extracting and combusting fossil fuels, that is neither economically nor environmentally sustainable, especially the externalities of pollution, resource wars, and climate change. This paper will outline a vision and a path to significant reductions in GHG emissions and reliance on petroleum, elimination of coal, and developing an energy infrastructure that harvests clean energy from renewable sources, and emission free and lower carbon energy combined with high efficiency buildings. The combination of aggressive CAFE standards (vehicle mileage) with biofuels will reduce reliance on petroleum while creating a robust US based (biofuels) industry. Most importantly, this plan builds a sustainable and extensible foundation to go past the 80:20 GHG reduction goal and achieve a carbon neutral energy system by 2050. It begins with a vision and shared commitment to develop and integrate eleven key technologies in a subsystems approach successfully used in the Apollo program to reach the moon and return in one decade. In addition to achieving significant GHG reduction and independence from more polluting fossil fuels, the US will develop seven key industries within clean technology, and demonstrate global leadership and a commitment to systemic change in energy systems, addressing energy poverty in the developing world, and showing a path towards sustainable development.
Greenhouse Gasses (GHGs), a key component of earth’s biogeochemical thermostat (Torn, Harte), have been steadily increasing since the beginning of the industrial age, followed by concomitant warming of the globe, and acidity of the oceans (IPCC, USGS). The rate of increase in CO2 concentrations has accelerated since 1950, and at projected rates of fossil fuel combustion will surpass 450 ppm sometime between 2035 and 2040. Increased reliance on heavy hydrocarbons (bitumen) to replace thinning supplies of petroleum, combined with a near doubling of (ICE) vehicles every decade from 1950 to 2010, is a critical trend in both GHG emissions and urban air pollution in the developing world. The US has historically been the largest contributor to rise in CO 2 , and nothing less than a 75 to 80 % reduction in GHG emissions, and both leadership in adoption and sharing of this technology will prevent a future intersection with 450 ppm CO 2 , a limit suggested by a consensus of world climate scientists as a point of no return for irreversible climate change. Additionally, approaching 450 ppm CO 2 , rising ocean acidity will impact corral reefs, the ability for plankton (base of the food chain) to form stable shells, and potentially slow the pumping of CO 2 from the atmosphere into the ocean, accelerating both the rise of atmospheric CO 2 and future warming. Energy security is increasingly a component of economic security, and is usually synonymous with energy independence. At the center of this premise is faulty logic; we are more dependent than ever on a hunter-gather model, i.e. fossil fuel dependence, when an abundant source of clean primary energy, solar and wind, combined with hydroelectric, emission free nuclear energy, and lower carbon natural gas can supply the needs of an electron economy, while addressing the needed reduction in GHGs. The infrastructure to ‘harvest’ these cleaner sources of primary energy are a shift towards building ‘energy equity’ in more abundant, cleaner, and more economically stable sources of energy. This new energy model is described through the ‘systemic energy principles’ of clean generation, smart distribution, and efficient end use. The energy systems in this model include both centralized and distributed generation, integration of significant renewable energy with high efficiency energy conversion (gas turbines and fuel cells) and smart distribution of electrical energy to high efficiency buildings and electric vehicles, with active distribution and energy storage used to buffer intermittency of supply.
The Electron Economy Mind Map shows eleven key technologies that form the five to six key subsystems. Each of these technologies is component in the emerging Electron Economy, that is being built through the general move away from fossil fuels and towards renewable, non-emission, and lower carbon sources of energy. Each component represents clean generation, smart distribution, or efficient end-use, and two or more components are linked in subsystems to form critical technology clusters in renewable energy, transportation, building efficiency, energy storage and conversion, smart energy / microgrid technology (DG/IG), and GHG sequestering. While we are currently working in both R&D and deployment in these eleven areas, we are not investing in efforts to link these technologies on milestones critical to reach an 80:20 reduction in GHG emission, stay ahead of peak (conventional) oil production, and build an energy infrastructure that is both environmentally and economically sustainable (and addressing true energy independence from our hunter-gatherer fossil fuel dependence). The ‘road map’ described in this paper is not prescriptive, rather it suggests a timetable to develop both components and synergies among the obvious pieces of a clean energy infrastructure, achieving significant GHG reductions (70-80%) in 20 years, and laying the foundation for a carbon neutral energy economy in 2050 (through a combination of further GHG emission reductions (carbon capture etc.) and active GHG sequestering.
Key subsystems are clusters of integrated technology, with focus on clean generation, smart distribution, and efficient end-use Renewable energy Transportation Building efficiency Storage and conversion Smart energy / microgrid Renewable energy is clean generation, but needs transmission lines, energy storage, and smart distribution for complete integration. Goals of 100 GW solar PV (utility scale) and 200 GW wind (utility scale) will provide roughly 25% of total electrical energy (25% from nuclear and 50% from natural gas). Existing supply of ~100GW hydroelectric combined with solar and wind would produce ~ 1 trillion kWh electricity annually. Developing 300 GW of Renewable Energy (RE) over a 20 year period is a significant commitment to sustained deployment, both a stimulus to the US economy (heavy manufacturing) and increase in clean generation. The power mix of 25% RE, 25% nuclear, and 50% natural gas would be the same as Northern California has today (25% hydro, 25% nuclear, 25% natural gas), which is the cleanest supply in the US. Transportation requires higher efficiency (end-use) to lower liquid fuels volume, and blend in advanced biofuels to extend supply and a low carbon fuel. Developing biofuels is a multi-decade program, building on the R&D started almost a decade ago in yeast and algae, and scale to 1 mgd (million gallons per day) (5 years), 10 mgd (7.5 years) 25 mgd (10 years) 50 mgd (12.5-15 years) and full blending to 100 mgd (17.5 to 20). Efficiency and blending are needed to occur at the same time to stay ahead of growing global demand for transportation fuels and decreasing production of conventional hydrocarbons. Building efficiency. Commercial buildings use 25% of US primary energy (275 billion sq feet at ~ 93,000 BTU sq-ft) Like transportation efficiency, building efficiency lowers total primary energy needed for electrical generation, perhaps as much as 500 billion kWh annually. Integrated PB (BIPV) and local electrical generation from fuel cells (distributed generation / microgrids) and smart energy helps to integrated RE. Building Management Systems (BMS) works to facilitate integrated demand side management through the use of aggregated operational profiles (predictive analytics) in a system-wide process called Distributed Energy Management Systems (DEMS). The combination of high efficiency buildings with BIPV, local energy storage and generation (fuel cells), and sophisticated energy management systems is an instance of systemic energy principles (clean generation => smart distribution => efficiency end use) and provides ‘addressable load’ and active load management, key to stabilizing the larger power grid, as well as providing active load management at the nanogrid/microgrid level. As importantly, emphasis on high efficiency buildings creates a sustained high technology industry around design, engineering, construction, and management of commercial buildings. Storage and conversion serves two purposes. Enhancements in energy storage are essential of electric vehicle adoption and critical to scaling; in 20 years half of vehicles will be Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV), Plug-in Hybrids, Extended Range EVs, and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV). Energy storage is very important in Renewable Energy (RE) integration, and grid stability. Energy conversion supplies electricity from natural gas. The thermal efficiency of General Electric flexible gas turbines is now 60%, similar to high efficiency (natural gas) hydrogen fuel cells. High efficiency conversion lowers GHG emissions, for instance, replacing fluidized coal plants with new gas turbines lowers GHG emissions by 60%, and by itself would cut electricity emissions in half. Local energy storage residential buildings is seen as an important growth industry, in Australia 50% of buildings with solar PV also have some (limited) energy storage. Energy storage at the nanogrid level (residential and commercial buildings) provides instantaneous load balancing, a means to react in a managed way to demand response (DR) events. Smart energy systems and microgrid controls serves three purposes. First is the aggregation of operational profiles (MDM) Meter Data Management for integrated demand side management. The second is integration of renewable energy, diversion of extra energy to storage, and use of storage to stabilize the grid. The third purpose is to facilitate a more stable grid, through analysis of VAR, Phasor energy, etc . Smart energy (see diagram) is the ‘connector’ between clean generation and efficient end-use, and the active management of electrical load to best integrate intermittent production of electricity from renewable sources (solar, wind, and hydroelectric) including the holarchy model. GHG sequestering and carbon capture is the last ‘subsystem’, and is included as a means to both address the excess GHGs produced by combustion of fossil fuels, as well as a potential technology for capturing GHG emissions, such as CO 2 from combustion of coal. Today there are no instances of carbon capture in production, although there are small research (pilot) projects. The primary issue in carbon capture is the amount of storage needed for the amount of coal being consumed, as well as concerns about the safety and reliability of long-term storage. GHG sequestration of CO 2 in the atmosphere is potentially a game changer for reducing the rate (and amount) of future greenhouse warming. Agrotechnology is seen as the primary tool for ‘pumping’ CO 2 from the atmosphere into long term storage in root and soil. Pumping at a sustained annual rate of 0.5 ppm CO 2 would be enough to offset target emissions of 1 ton CO 2 per person (globally) in 2050.
Systemic Energy Principles were first described in a National Science Foundation proposal submitted by Foothill College (October 2010) . As shown in figure (smart energy system stack) this model is based on the principles of clean generation, smart distribution, and efficient end use, an idea inspired by General Electric Ecomagination™. As applied to the electricity value chain, the idea has two applications. The first application is a ‘system stack’ that begins the electrical value chain with clean generation sources, such as renewable energy (wind and solar), emission free nuclear and geothermal, or fuel cells using hydrogen and methane from clean sources (opportunity fuels and biogeneration). The goal of clean generation is to minimize both Green House Gas (GHG) generation as well as impact to the environment from extraction and refining. The second component is the smart distribution of energy between and among generation sources, energy storage, and points of end use. This would include smart energy management and active distribution technology, including AMI (Advanced Metering Initiative), energy analytics, meaning aggregate time-of-use information developed across a microgrid and over time, and the ability to ‘time’ the occurrence of load (load shift) to better fit generation optimization, and or more complex operations, such as the ‘forward storage’ of wind into (redox) flow cells or pumped hydro. Shifting of energy demand to align with an excess of stored energy, generated cheaply (throwaway cycles), or when renewables are generating in excess of demand, lowers the overall demand on power as well as GHGs. Smart distribution also ‘times’ the charging of electric vehicles, either to set ‘price’ times during the day, evening, or early morning, or ‘throttling’ networks (masses) of individual cars to preserve generation, voltage, or protect infrastructure (warm transformers during an extended heat wave). Efficient end use describes the overall efficiency of work done at the end point of the electrical value chain. Focusing on commercial and consumer applications, buildings and electric vehicles will be the two most important applications of electrical energy in the emerging clean energy economy. High efficiency buildings will employ a combination of LEED construction, DC motor and HVAC technology, integrated solar energy (BIPV), smart meter integration (AMI) with Energy Management Systems (EMS) and Building Management Systems (BMS) including occupancy sensors, etc. Electric Vehicles, efficient by design, will charge when best suited for grid conditions (generation profile) including price, GHG profile, etc. Electric Vehicle integrated with social transportation tools (GIS/GPS etc.) will increase the overall system efficiency. In designing these ‘clean energy circuits’ for fixed applications, engineers consider the linking of clean generation, smart distribution, and efficient end use into logical and physical circuits, that can either be ‘provisioned’ at time of use, or stochastically designed into the overall loading order of a power system network. In dynamic provisioning, ‘right sourcing’ of energy is the logical design of systems where clean generation (or forward store of renewable energy) is available at a time when a predictable demand is introduced to the grid. In a ‘credit-debit’ approach to clean energy circuits, a large parking lot or commercial roof might generate excess power in the afternoon, offsetting HVAC demand and (typically) a natural gas source, and electric vehicles are charged deep in the morning where base load will cover the energy sorce, oftne where a combination of hydroelectric, natural gas, and/or nuclear energy is the primary source of energy.
The energy systems model in the emerging Electron Economy has three levels (holarchy model) of macrogrid, microgrid, and nanogrid, shown in the diagram (slide) as central power systems (nuclear and natural gas), with large-scale renewable (hydro and utility scale solar and wind) and distributed energy resources. The boxes labeled 1,2 and 3 are clean generation. At the middle level of the diagram is smart energy management and distribution systems, including all of the smart grid (utility scale), Distributed Energy Management Systems (DEMS), and Meter Data Management (MDM) for predictive analytics and Demand Response (DR). At the nanogrid level are the end-use of electricity; advanced transportation (EVs) and high efficiency buildings, that also integrate BIPV (Building Integrated Photo Voltaics) and sophisticated Energy Management Systems (EMS) with Building Automation Controls (BAC). The end-to-end model shown here represents an integrated chain from clean generation => smart distribution => efficient end use, as described in the systemic energy (and ecomagination) principles.
The energy ‘systems model’ describes the power grid as a ‘holarchy’ of systems; a nanogrid (building level) which can aggregate into a microgrid, or large-area campus, which then defines the aggregate (presentation) to the larger macrogrid [Nanogrids LBL reference]. In a holarchy, each subsystem is a component of a larger system. In physics, quarks are part of nuclei, distinct at their level of process, but integrated into larger functioning wholes. In the emerging electricity energy model, Implementation of the Nanogrid [buildings as distinct systems], Microgrid [neighborhood and campuses aggregate nanogrids], and Macrogrid [emergent mesh network of microgrids] is modeled as a holarchy of systems. From a systems engineering perspective, why is the holarchy model important? 1. Building nanogrids designed to operate autonomously, ‘inside the meter’ using advanced DC technology, with the ability to control power to circuits (lighting, HVAC, kitchen, washer/dryer, etc) integrate BIPV power into storage, and respond to macrogrid DR (Demand Response) events, as well as ‘surrounding’ inputs (mesh-nanogrid/microgrid) to moderate power in response to aggregate microgrid goals (maximize use of renewables/distributed generation and minimize draw on outer macrogrid power) . The smart meter is the interface between distinct nanogrid buildings and the surrounding neighborhood, be that a microgrid or macrogrid. In addition to building controls, nanogrids have the ability to conduct real time energy analysis, compare to typical use patterns, and adjust in real time. This technology is integrated into Energy Management Systems (EMS) and Building Management Systems (BMS), which additionally allows building owners to examine energy data in granularity and context; ‘how is a building performing compared to buildings like it’? Also, The EMS/BMS and HEN (Home Energy Network) can ‘store’ response to various energy conditions, not unlike a ‘flexible fire drill’ to allow it to respond, in stages, to various external power conditions. It is through this facility that a microgrid mesh-network of (building) nanogrids can achieve aggregate results for targeted energy use. The microgrid can ‘broadcast’ to its system of nanogrids that a target energy use (for the system) will require buildings to respond in various levels, such as 5%, 10%, or 20% reductions, and over what periods of time. Depending on the building occupancy, building (nanogrids) within a microgrid may respond at slightly different times but synchronously enough to achieve the aggregate goals. Likewise the microgrid (as detailed below) is responding to macrogrid inputs, and presenting a uniform or desired ‘power profile’ at the service interface between microgrid and macrogrid. Nanogrids must be designed for building energy analysis, control, and the ability to respond individually to achieve aggregate goals Microgrids (or Distributed Generation Networks) are designed to integrate distributed generation in a ‘best-coupled’ model to loads within the network, be they residential, commercial, or industrial. Microgrids function from within the macrogrid, and often ‘source’ power from the macrogrid, while simultaneously generating a significant fraction of their own power. Microgrids need to be designed to ensure that the power they produce does not adversely interact with the surrounding power grid. For instance, power production should be steady (continuous) and not vary in total output over short timescales. Solar power production varies steadily during the day, but continuously, and in a well designed system should match the increasing loads of the grid it serves. For instance, solar PV in a large DG system will usually produce up to 80% of the peak system load, and often will correspond closely to the air conditioning load (peak sun, peak heat, peak HVAC, and peak solar PV). If however buildings do not ‘soak up’ that power, and the voltage, frequency, or phase of that power is not synchronous with the surrounding grid, ‘power quality’ issues can lead to grid stress, and adversely affect customer equipment miles from the microgrid. Microgrids are engineered using complex power models, and additionally benefit from the ability to employ ‘active distribution’. Active distribution is the ability to manage the distribution of power from micro sources (PV, fuel cells, cogen) into defined loads, storage, or to exit the microgrid into the surrounding power grid. System sizing ensures that active distribution is primarily used to reliably match loads (time of use) and the ability to manage those loads (building nanogrid controls) ensures the best fit between locally generated power, imported power, and time-of-use loads. This can be done to provide relief from high pricing, to provide relief to the surrounding grid (such as a demand response event) or to achieve what is known as ‘net-zero’ power use (annual use of zero-net imported power). A key need for active distribution at the microgrid level, and especially for utility scale wind energy, is to ensure that ‘over production’ can be managed. For example, the storage of wind energy during the night to be used the next day, using a distributed network of electric vehicles to ‘soak up’ the excess charge. In a similar manner, coal plants often have ‘throwaway cycles’ that industry is coaxed to use such that the power plants do not have to be ‘throttled back’ which leads to inefficiencies and resource (fuel) waste. Just as microgrids can be thought of as a mesh network of nanogrids, the macrogrid can be thought of as a mesh of larger grids. Today, the model of generation and delivery is load driven, and it is difficult to achieve a well choreographed response from users to lessen demand as fuel prices rise, or production reaches limits. The macrogrid that we know today will change as distributed generation, either as rooftop solar PV, and especially large-scale distributed solar power, is developed ‘inside’ the current distribution grid. The ability to operate a large area power grid that is stitched together as the sum effect of microgrids, comprising mesh networks of nanogrids, is different from today’s grid in three fundamental ways: Nanogrids (building circuits) are designed to self-analyze, respond dynamically to outside inputs (DR events and signals to smart meters through AMI) , and will increasing have integrated generation (BIPV) that can directly power HVAC systems. Nanogrids can respond synchronously to microgrid inputs to achieve large-scale system goals (i.e, have a microgrid reduce power 80% in response to a macrogrid DR event) Macrogrids are designed to both organize the aggregate loads of it’s member buildings, process, and create the best coupling of distributed generation with time-of-use load, and present a uniform, predictable power interface to the outside macrogrid. Microgrids or large DG projects may comprise significant RE (Renewable energy) to help utilities meet their RPS goals. Macrogrids of the future will have greater ‘internal sense’ of power quality and use by aggregating data at the micro level, using AMI and sensor networks. Through aggregated real-time data, modeling of use patterns, and the ability to send signals to individual buildings (customer meters) and nanogrids, and to microgrids, more predictable and manageable loads can be created, making matching of generation to meet ‘managed demand’ a more efficient process. This will provide better power => less carbon intensive, and through better management of reactive power, greater efficiency (5%). Additionally, a well managed macrogrid can make better use of intermittent renewable energy, one of the larger challenges as we attempt to push RPS adoption higher and more aggressively.
Renewable energy is clean generation, but needs transmission lines, energy storage, and smart distribution for complete integration. Goals of 100 GW solar PV (utility scale) and 200 GW wind (utility scale) will provide roughly 25% of total electrical energy (25% from nuclear and 50% from natural gas). Existing supply of ~100GW hydroelectric combined with solar and wind would produce ~ 1 trillion kWh electricity annually. Developing 300 GW of Renewable Energy (RE) over a 20 year period is a significant commitment to sustained deployment, both a stimulus to the US economy (heavy manufacturing) and increase in clean generation. The power mix of 25% RE, 25% nuclear, and 50% natural gas would be the same as Northern California has today (25% hydro, 25% nuclear, 25% natural gas), which is the cleanest supply in the US.
Solar power is a primary energy source, powering almost all life on earth, and providing more than 20,000 times more energy in a day than humans use in a year. With a vigorous and committed investment in research and adoption, 25% of all electricity, and 50% of new electricity, could be provided by solar power by 2025. Currently less than 1% of electricity comes from solar energy, and even with 25% CAGR, it will be at least 10 to 15 years before a significant fraction of our electricity is generated from solar, with most of the growth occurring between 2020 and 2025, after we reach 10% adoption (estimated at 2020). In order to affect a substantial contribution of solar power into our total energy mix will require the type of commitment that California has just made with its ‘Million Solar Roofs’ Initiative, which will help subsidize the cost of bringing solar energy to one million homes in California by 2017. This will help propel California to become a leader in the solar energy economy, including investment in research to develop higher efficiency / lower cost thin film silicon technology.
Wind power is real power. Germany and Europe have made significant investments in wind, where it can supply as much as 40% of electrical demands (peak power). Using methane as backup / peaking power and wind as a primary source. The cost of wind makes it very attractive – new GE wind turbines with 3.6 MWhr sell for 3.6 million dollars, or roughly $1 a watt, and at least 5 to 10 times cheaper than solar installations.
The supply makeup of the future electricity grid comprises five key components: the existing fleet of nuclear reactors, 200GW of natural gas that displaces coal, and provides both base-load power and ‘flex-efficiency’ firming for Renewable Energy and peak demand events, and renewable energy; 100GW of solar thermal and PV (new), 200GW of wind energy, and 100GW of hydroelectric power. The composition of the power mix from this supply is estimated at 50% natural gas, 25% nuclear, and 25% renewable, similar to the power mix in Northern California today. GHG emissions are estimated to be 70% than today’s electricity mix, mostly from replacing (high carbon intensity) coal with lower carbon intensity natural gas, integration of renewable energy, and reduction of total demand through higher efficiency buildings with BIPV. It should also be noted that this system will also supply electric power to roughly 25% of vehicles from PHEV (plug-in hybrid) to EREV (extended range electric) and BEV (Battery Electric Vehicles). Total power in this system could flex to as much as 4 trillion kWh with additional solar, wind, and geothermal energy. By 2050, it is estimated that a new generation of nuclear power will replace today’s uranium fission plants.
Transportation requires higher efficiency (end-use) to lower liquid fuels volume, and blend in advanced biofuels to extend supply and a low carbon fuel. Developing biofuels is a multi-decade program, building on the R&D started almost a decade ago in yeast and algae, and scale to 1 mgd (million gallons per day) (5 years), 10 mgd (7.5 years) 25 mgd (10 years) 50 mgd (12.5-15 years) and full blending to 100 mgd (17.5 to 20). Efficiency and blending are needed to occur at the same time to stay ahead of growing global demand for transportation fuels and decreasing production of conventional hydrocarbons.
Petroleum reduction is a strategic goal in building the electron economy. First, to achieve significant GHG reductions both petroleum and coal use must be reduced and and/or eliminated, respectively. Significant reductions in hydrocarbon can best be achieved through the combination of efficiency and ‘blending’ of hydrocarbon based liquid transportation fuels with advanced biofuels. The graph (show diagram) shows the combined effect of increasing mileage (CAFE) from 20 mpg to 50 mpg over a period from ~ 2010 to 2025 (a result of the 2009 auto industry bailout). This will reduce liquid transportation fuel volume from ~ 400 mgd to ~160 mgd. This is significant, as increasing biofuels from 37 mgd by 50% to ~50 mgd would reduce petroleum based gasoline from 360 to 110 mgd, a drop of 70%. However, the increase in biofuels volume is more challenging, as advanced biofuels are not based on corn, and instead must come from a mix of cellulosic ethanol and distillates from GMO (Genetically Modified Organisms) yeast and algae, etc. Whether there is a move from corn ethanol to cellulosic ethanol, and/or development of a robust advanced biofuels industry, we need a sustained effort to develop capacity of nearly 100 mgd by 2030, a growth in capacity of ~5% per year. At the same time, combined vehicle mileage must increase by 5% per year, requiring higher mileage vehicles to displace older lower mpg vehicles. This in turn will require not just better internal combustion engine (ICE) efficiency, but a shift from ICE drive trains to hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) and Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREV) , and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV). This is a sustained effort over 20 years, with efficiency lowering total transportation fuel volume, and increasing volumes of liquid fuels displacing petroleum based gasoline. GHGs from (passenger) vehicles can decrease by a third in just a decade, and by 50% in 20 years, and within 15 years reduce and eliminate our dependence on foreign oil (excluding Canada). The key is simultaneous steady increase in mpg and biofuels production (CAGR 5%). Exxon Mobil in 2007 proposed the blending of low carbon advanced biofuels with traditional petroleum (and even refined bitumen from Canada) to produce gasoline that met low carbon fuel standards (~75% typical emissions). As a hypothetical ‘blend’, consider the 50:50 mixture of refined bitumen (1.25 emissions of petroleum based gasoline) with an advanced biofuel (~25% typical emissions) yielding a gasoline blend with ~75% typical emissions. This would help achieve GHG reduction through high volume production of biofuels, and simultaneously reduce demand on traditional petroleum or bitumen based fuels. It is theoretically possible to significantly decrease, and/or even eliminate demand for OPEC based petroleum in a little more than one decade, if we invest in biofuels technology, forward-looking policy, and make consumer choices consistent with efficiency and lower carbon fuel standards, but as shown in (Excel graphic) we need to begin this effort immediately and meet critical 5-year milestones. There is no ‘cacth-up’ through technology breakthroughs, it is simply a matter of scale.
From Excel spreadsheet, begin with 20 mpg in 2010 and 3 trillion VMT (Vehicle Miles travelled) and ~ 35 mgd of corn ethanol. Stay on a 5% annual increase in CAFÉ to get to 50 mpg in 2025-2027 (roughly 15 years). Increase biofuels 5% CAGR, and around 2025 US only uses 10M barrels per day (mpd) of petroleum, enough for domestic production plus imports of refined bitumen from Canada. Extended to ~2030, liquid fuels decrease to less than 200 mgd, biofuels reach 100 mgd, and GHGs are reduced from 1.5 B tons to 600 M tons, helping to get to the 80:20 reduction (~2035). In addition to advanced biofuels for passenger vehicles burning gasoline, GMO technology used by Amyris can also provide distillate for diesel blending. In trucks it is possible to increase fuel efficiency from 6 mpg to almost 8 mpg and higher using advanced materials (heat rejection). Another approach to lowering diesel is simply to consume less, ship less, and used advanced rail technology to move materials between cities. It will take decades to reach such efficiencies in logistics, but it is possible. Finally, the US military has committed to advanced biofuels for blending with JP4/JP8 (jet fuel) and has already qualified such blends in military aircraft. By being an early adopter (and guaranteed purchaser) of biofuels at volume over a sustained period, there is incentive for sustained R&D and piloting of projects to develop 1 mgd facilities (as with corn ethanol). Another approach to increase production of advanced biofuels would be a ‘feed in’ credit to producers (new fuel only), of as much as $1 per gallon initially, and decreasing by $0.25 every five years as the volume of fuel increases. Sustained revenues help with initial costs, expected to be high, to establish producers building market share. The volume of advanced (all) biofuels is expected to reach 100 mgd by 2030, representing an industry with over 500B in annual revenue, ten times the size of today’s corn ethanol industry. Finally, there is a possible interesection beween advanced biofuels (especially cellulosic ethanol) and long-term GHG sequestration, currently the focus of a number of novel bioinformatics and GMO projects (reference GCEP 2012).
Building efficiency. Commercial buildings use 25% of US primary energy (275 billion sq feet at ~ 93,000 BTU sq-ft) Like transportation efficiency, building efficiency lowers total primary energy needed for electrical generation, perhaps as much as 500 billion kWh annually. Integrated PB (BIPV) and local electrical generation from fuel cells (distributed generation / microgrids) and smart energy helps to integrated RE. Building Management Systems (BMS) works to facilitate integrated demand side management through the use of aggregated operational profiles (predictive analytics) in a system-wide process called Distributed Energy Management Systems (DEMS). The combination of high efficiency buildings with BIPV, local energy storage and generation (fuel cells), and sophisticated energy management systems is an instance of systemic energy principles (clean generation => smart distribution => efficiency end use) and provides ‘addressable load’ and active load management, key to stabilizing the larger power grid, as well as providing active load management at the nanogrid/microgrid level. As importantly, emphasis on high efficiency buildings creates a sustained high technology industry around design, engineering, construction, and management of commercial buildings.
NASA-Ames Sustainability Base is an example of a LEED Platinum building and a Zero-net energy site. 50,000 sq-ft with BIPV and Bloom Energy fuel cell. The 50,000 sq-ft building is the lowest energy use in a government building in the United States. The building combines high efficiency, BIPV (Building Integrated Photo Voltaic) and hydrogen fuel cell technology, and a sophisticated Energy Management System (EMS) that combines Siemen’s industrial controls with space station technology. It houses almost 300 scientists performing work in climate science and other scientific fields. Energy intensity of this building is estimated to be ~40,000 BTU (or 40,000 KJ) per square foot, less than half of the typical US building (~90,000 BTU/sq-ft). Sustainability Base is also a ZNE (Zero Net Energy) site, producing as much energy (through BIPV and fuel cell) as it uses in the course of a year. ZNE buildings are a new approach to commercial buildings, and will become a US building standard in 2020.
Nanogrid concept is exemplified in this diagram (GE ecomagination) of a residential building also dubbed as a ‘smart home’. The construction and features of the building follow our three-step principle of high efficiency, Building Integrated Photo Voltaics (BIPV), and sophisticated Energy Management Systems (EMS). Also present in this building are local energy storage, demand response appliances, and geothermal heat pumps and water heater (radiant floor heating may also be present). This allows the building to use electricity for applications normally using natural gas, lowering the GHG emissions of the building further. Small wind generation (where it is practical) helps to apply a ‘trickle charge’ to energy storage and electric vehicles (not shown in this picture). Integration of the Home Energy Manager with the smart meter, provides intelligent response from demand response appliances. The home of the future is available today, and ‘smart’ nanogrid architecture allows the building to perform as integrated systems, maximizing use of local energy production, and providing flexible response to macrogrid conditions.
Storage and conversion serves two purposes. Enhancements in energy storage are essential of electric vehicle adoption and critical to scaling; in 20 years half of vehicles will be Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV), Plug-in Hybrids, Extended Range EVs, and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV). Energy storage is very important in Renewable Energy (RE) integration, and grid stability. Energy conversion supplies electricity from natural gas. The thermal efficiency of General Electric flexible gas turbines is now 60%, similar to high efficiency (natural gas) hydrogen fuel cells. High efficiency conversion lowers GHG emissions, for instance, replacing fluidized coal plants with new gas turbines lowers GHG emissions by 60%, and by itself would cut electricity emissions in half. Local energy storage residential buildings is seen as an important growth industry, in Australia 50% of buildings with solar PV also have some (limited) energy storage. Energy storage at the nanogrid level (residential and commercial buildings) provides instantaneous load balancing, a means to react in a managed way to demand response (DR) events.
Smart energy systems and microgrid controls serves three purposes. First is the aggregation of operational profiles (MDM) Meter Data Management for integrated demand side management. The second is integration of renewable energy, diversion of extra energy to storage, and use of storage to stabilize the grid. The third purpose is to facilitate a more stable grid, through analysis of VAR, Phasor energy, etc . Smart energy (see diagram) is the ‘connector’ between clean generation and efficient end-use, and the active management of electrical load to best integrate intermittent production of electricity from renewable sources (solar, wind, and hydroelectric) including the holarchy model. The smart energy application platform (see additional diagrams) integrates utility scale energy from central power plants, including natural gas, nuclear, and large hydro electric, utility scale RE (solar and wind) ((macrogrid)), distributed generation (microgrids with large solar, cogen, and fuel cells), utility scale storage, nanogrid (buildings) and electric vehicles, and third party energy service providers (MDM, direct access purchase of energy).
The Smart Energy System Stack follows the ecomagination principles of clean generation, smart distribution, and efficient end use. The system stack also shows the flow of energy from generation => distribution => end use, and a ‘counter current’ flow of information from end-use back into the ‘smart distribution’ layer, and propagating that information into clean generation. These are known as ‘counter-current’ feedback loops in biology, which control regulatory (metabolic) pathways, which blends ‘system intelligence’ with molecular manufacturing. The smart system stack illustrates the primary purpose of the Smart Distribution ‘middle-tier’ – which is to serve as the application logic layer connecting generation with end-use. For most of the electrical value chain, the standard distribution model will prevail. However, large solar projects (Distributed Generation) on corporate and college campuses are examples of where a ‘smart distribution layer’ helps to measure and manage end-use, and synchronize load and generation to better use Renewable Energy. Additionally, all of AMI (Advanced Metering Initiative) is embedded in the Smart Distribution later, and serves to manage the flow of energy, information, and provide the logic services for active distribution (microgrid concept).
The key drivers of change include the utility mandate to meet Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and lower carbon intensity, Electric Vehicle (EV) deployment and integration of charging stations with the distribution grid, and integrate advances in electricity technology and power system innovation, including smart energy / [smart grid] / Advanced Metering Initiative (AMI) and large scale integration of Distributed Generation (DG) projects, including development of the Microgrid concept. RPS goals for California include a 20% Renewable Energy mandate for 2010, and 33% for 2020. Reaching these goals is a two-pronged effort; about half from utility-scale solar and wind projects, and half from large solar PV projects sized between 0.5 to 1.5 MW. These later projects are also described as ‘DG’ or Distributed Generation behind the meter, typically found on college and large commercial and industrial campuses with either large parking lots and or significant rooftop space. Commercial vendors have emerged in sector that leases rooftop space from buildings, providing clean power to the building as well as surrounding tenants. Integrating these large PV projects into campuses is challenging – often the amount of power produced overwhelms aging/existing electrical infrastructure, or cannot be usefully managed by existing utility circuits, or power management distribution systems. [This problem is actually a key point of research and development of microgrid technology, the application of active distribution in large-scale smart energy management]. Electric Vehicle integration is an emerging challenge that interests utilities for three reasons. First, the initial customer experience of adding EVs to the electricity supply chain needs to be a good experience to ensure steady if not accelerated adoption of this technology. Second, the load demand (power requirements) of an electric vehicle is significant, a Tesla, Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, and even a plug-in hybrid will draw power equal and even twice that of a house. Not only does this cause problems at peak load (warm summer afternoons) it can overwhelm older transformers, especially in neighborhoods not built for these loads. Both generation and distribution (delivery) of electrical energy will need to scale with EVV adoption over the next 20 years. The third reason EVs have the interest of utilities is the ‘customer’ now has two points of contact with the utility, a home or commercial building, and an electric vehicle. Business models for pricing energy, and developing plans for procuring clean energy for EVs are integral to the entire EV equation and value proposition. Electricity for an EV can approach the total consumed by a small house of apartment, and ‘roaming’ of this load means an extended network of chargers and perhaps distributed generation will need to accommodate parking garages and large corporate campuses. The third challenge is perhaps the biggest ‘game changer’ in the business model of a utility. From a simplified model of delivering reliable and affordable electricity, and providing modest but predictable returns to shareholders of Investor owned Utilities (IOUs), and maintaining a reliable power infrastructure (T&D), utilities now are faced with providing a platform for integrating solar PV on rooftops, adequate power for Electric Vehicles (EVs) smart energy services integrated with AMI (Demand Response) for campuses and building nanogrids. The intersection of internetworking technology and IT – the implementation of the smart grid – is perhaps the single biggest challenge to the ‘status-quo’ thinking of the 20 th century power grid era. What the Internet brought to telecommunications was the ability of any computer to ‘participate’ (play) as an equal peer in a globally distributed network of information, services, and processing (IT). What electrical utilities must acknowledge, and then embrace, is that the intersection of IT and internetworking with power systems not only brings the ability to integrate technology from third party vendors, it offers the ability to build an application platform that will be the foundation of a future clean energy economy. Building and supporting a network provides a platform for integrating renewable and distributed generation, providing mechanism for smart energy management and active distribution, a foundation for an emerging electric vehicle infrastructure (energy and GIS), and providing a (smart meter) interface for buildings (as nanogrids) to interface with microgrids, and for each of these to organize and aggregate into the macrogrid at large. This is what the Internet rapidly became, through the use of network standards and committees for integrating innovation into this network in an orderly manner. In IT speak, the power system application platform provides collaboration services (messaging, synchronization, security, authenticity, privacy) and reliably. Like the Internet and world Wide Web, providing this platform with strict standards and expectations (IEEE and RFC mechanisms) will allow third party developers of DC technology, smart energy management and active distribution, building and energy management system developers, and wireless communications providers to have a common platform to build and integrate value added energy services. These trends will affect Utilities, Industry, Consumers, and Workforce, creating opportunities and challenges for stakeholders. A key goal in this white paper is to identify the core competencies needed to model, design, implement, and support an emerging electrical application platform, and the training that an incumbent and future workforce will require in developing this architecture.
The New Electricity Model is based on a platform that provides collaboration services to the core components of a distributed energy network, it is a foundation for building a clean energy economy. Application platforms are common in ICT (Information and Communication Technology) and provide a means for standalone applications to work, communicate, and collaborate with each other. Today’s electricity network supports electrons that are seeking the closest path to ground. The transmission grid is monitored in processes that take seconds to measure where a response to correct grid stability requires a fraction of a second. Today it is challenging to connect large solar PV energy into the grid, and campus-wide control of energy, as in a ‘managed microgrid’ remains something that exists in technical papers but not in reality. What integrated services would a modern power distribution grid require? How are they different than today? What technology solutions are available, what ones need to be developed, and what does the job of integration look like? The strategic goals of utilities are congruent with the national goals for cleaner (emission free) energy, reduction for petroleum, and integrating new technology for energy management and grid automation. The power distribution grid today is in reality a ‘delivery grid’ that would not be unrecognizable to Thomas Edison were he alive today. It is reliable in providing power in a model that worked 50 years ago, but has not benefited from the advances in telecommunications, IT internetworking, and the converging fields of energy analytics and demand management. To be fair, evolution of Internet technology is a fair simpler infrastructure proposition when it is simultaneously driven by consumers, business, and telecommunications industries. Power systems are more complicated, expensive, and utilities require years of study and technology selection to reach design and engineering solutions that will be in place for 25 to 50 years. How can these two systems work together, and provide synergies of intelligence and power system engineering? Today the process of integrating large renewable or distributed energy ‘inside the meter’ must be done carefully, with clear and accurate knowledge of building and ‘campus’ loads. The advent of interval metering aids this analysis, but utilities must often reengineer, fortify, and reroute circuits, to ensure both grid stability and physical safety of large generation sources not under their direct control. The first thing a power application platform must provide is the ability to add generation load without having adverse impacts on local loads, power quality, or safety. Integral to this requirement is the ability to gather and analyze load demand data, and control (influence) aggregate loads at the meter level. [this idea will be further developed in the holon model]. Demand management is the single biggest value of AMI (Advanced Metering Initiative) . Smart energy management is largely an IT function but requires scaffolding of the power system cabling with complex physical and mesh networking. Active power distribution is the magic of the power application platform, integrating power management data with distributed generation and localized storage, and/or dedicated power switching technology. [ A review of active distribution networks enabling technologies Hidalgo, R.; Abbey, C.; Joós, G ] Active distribution provides the ability to create logical power paths from physical circuits and smart energy switching. At a microgrid level, this creates ‘clean energy circuits’. Within a nanogrid (building) this facilitates the active management of building circuits, including lighting, HVAC /ventilation, washer/dryer, and consumer electronics. Connecting BIPV (Building Integrated Photovoltaic) with HVAC and storage is a form of active distribution. The last element of the application platform is providing a foundation for an electric vehicle infrastructure. Electric Vehicles have a ‘load footprint’ equivalent to a large home with AC (7 KW) enough to test residential transformers. EV charging infrastructure will combine smart energy management, active distribution, with home (nanogrid) power systems, and possibly local distributed energy generation. EVs will additionally be integrated into billing system, security, and possibly power pricing as a subscription model. RE and distributed generation Smart energy management Active power distribution Support (building) nanogrids Foundation for EV infrastructure
Powerline networking allows network technology to be integrated into power systems, perhaps not for all communications but possibly for active distribution. The challenge for smart grid evolution is creating an application platform that can meet power system needs while flexibly upgrading features and functional capability. A power system architecture with AMI (Advanced Metering Initiative), and DA (Distribution Automation) integrated would have the ability to adapt and adjust power flow, and combined with MDM (Meter Data Management) and real-time analytics, the smart grid (the actively intelligent power distribution system) can provide decision support to the physics of power generation and distribution. A beginning step is to build small ‘defined’ microgrids as test beds for integrating distributed energy from micro sources including large solar PV arrays, fuel cell technology, with energy storage, active power distribution inside buildings, and a campuswide metering initiative, with integrated real-time analytics. Only with small scale prototypes can we learn how the mesh network of microgrids will unfold and interact as a macrogrid. Likewise to build small networks of building nanogrids under the control (or aggregation) of microgrids will inform the tuning diagnostics of systems designed to both utilize internally generated power, as well as behave in a predictable and manageable ‘profile’ for the macrogrid. To build network intelligence in ways that are manageable and can grow and scale, a compilation of use cases will need to be developed. Use cases are diagrams like football plays that show how a dynamic system can be constructed from various actions of the internal network of agents and roles. In energy language, we would describe the relationship between energy generation, transient storage, distribution , and efficient end use as a clean energy circuit that can be modeled in UML (Unified Modeling Language) in use cases. A power grid will develop dozens of use cases for smart energy generation and distribution, and likewise use cases for end-use responses to various power conditions.
$1 - 2 trillion in solar energy $1 trillion in a new power grid $2.5 trillion in fuel saving cars $1 trillion in new electric motor and battery technology for cars and other appliances $1 trillion in developing safe nuclear energy to power the hydrogen economy This is a once in a lifetime opportunity!
The challenges in building a new integrated power distribution system, that integrates Internet technology and power systems technology, are significant. First and foremost, we have an existing power distribution system in place, that not only took 50 or more years to build, it connects everything we use that uses electricity. Second, the distribution system we have is based on delivery of electrons to load, without any direction or management from Information and Communications Technology. Grafting a communications and active control layer to a 50 year old power system isn’t a complete architectural model. The services needed to integrate distributed generation, especially intermittent renewables, and utility scale power generation.
Synergies and dependencies between and among the key technologies and subsystem technology clusters are described by essential breakthroughs that are necessary for larger components of the electron economy model. These include technologies for transportation efficiencies and biofuels that lead to significant reduction in petroleum, utility scale energy storage for integration of Renewable Energy (RE) high efficiency buildings with BIPV and energy management systems to lower electricity demand, and high efficiency gas turbines and fuel cells for conversion of natural gas to electricity (and combined heat and power in some cases). Breakthrough in materials technology in solar PV could lead to BIPV for roofing materials, and rapid adoption in developing economies. Pulling all of this together is a smart energy application platform, integrating clean generation from utility scale and distributed generation systems, supplying energy to electric vehicles, and leading to GHG emission reductions of 50% within 15 years of the onset of the program. The first big synergy is energy storage, which is essential to adoption of electric vehicles and integration of large amounts of renewable energy. Battery technology in EVs is improving at a rate of 8% per year (specific energy and cost). Batteries need to improve by at least 2-3x in specific energy and decrease in cost by 2-3x in order for electric vehicles to approach the cost of traditional gasoline powered (ICE). Today electric vehicles cost 10 to 15 thousand dollars more than comparable ICE vehicles. To reach 50 mpg, half of new vehicles will use electric motors and have some type of energy storage, thus almost 100 million batteries in cars, from small HEV (5 kWh) to larger BEV (25 to 30 kWh). That is 100 times more battery capacity than present today, a phenomenal 25% annual growth rate for over 20 years. While it tool Toyota over a decade to grow Prius sales to over one million, we need to ramp sales of hybrids and all electric vehicles much faster if we are going to reach 50 mpg CAFÉ before 2030. Increasing specific energy is a materials challenge, reaching lifetime charging cycles (durability) and lowering of cost, all at the same time, is a daunting challenge. Without advances in energy storage, electrification of automobile transportation will not occur at rates sufficient to achieve higher overall efficiency. Advanced biofuels are essential to decreasing our dependence on petroleum, and require R&D to find non-food solutions to plant based conversion to ethanol, and/or yeast and algal approaches to advanced biofuels. Annual growth rates of 5% for two decades (20 years) are necessary to achieve 75 to 100 mgd, needed to blend with petroleum to produce a low carbon fuel. Without advanced biofuels, we will need significantly more petroleum, and not achieve the desired GHG emission reductions. Additionally, lower demand for hydrocarbon will keep petroleum prices lower, potentially preventing continued downward pressure on economic growth. The combined effect of energy storage, transportation efficiency, and advanced biofuels will catalyze a fundamental shift from our hydrocarbon dependence, which is key to achieving true ‘energy independence’. High efficiency buildings, and energy efficiency in general, is central to lowering the amount of primary energy inputs into the electrical system. Buildings consume 60% of electricity and 40% of all primary energy, thus an increase in efficiency can save significant energy. Building integrated Photo Voltaic (BIPV) can reduce peak demand in buildings, covering HVAC loads, and with local fuel cell energy, allowing the larger power grid to supply baseload energy. EMS/DEMS integration allows buildings to flex in response to demand response (DR) events. High efficiency gas turbines and fuel cells are an essential component of the Electron Economy, as they convert natural gas to electricity. Today gas turbines from Siemans and General Electric can convert natural gas to electricity with better than 60% thermal efficiency. Replacing a typical coal plant with 40% thermal efficiency to natural gas at 60% thermal efficiency reduces GHG emissions by 60% (coal is 85% carbon while methane is has four hydrogen atoms for each carbon atom). Flex efficiency natural gas turbines can also operate at 15% rated power and then ramp at 100MW per minute to full power in (five to ten) minutes. This technology is a perfect match for intermittent renewable energy (RE), and combined with storage can provide voltage stability from transients to hours of ‘firming’. High efficiency fuel cells provide electrical energy close to load, typically in distributed generation environments. They can also be deployed in modular units of 100 KW, providing energy for a single 50,000 sq-ft building, or up to 1MW of local power generation for larger commercial and industrial campuses. Production of power close to load shields the larger macrogrid from providing energy to smaller but significant power loads. Fuel cells supply baseload energy, and typically run at nearly full power rating. Some fuel cells also provide combined heat and power for thermal loads. Smart energy connects all the subsystem components, from Renewable Energy (RE) and energy storage, to high efficiency gas turbines (utility) and fuel cell (distributed generation), to high efficiency buildings and electric vehicles. The combination of ICT (Information and Communications Technology) and analytics (Meter Data Management and operational profiles) provide an intelligent architecture for maximizing RE energy, providing power grid stability (Volt-VAR) integrating electric vehicles, and facilitating direct access energy purchases.
Building the electron economy
Building theElectron Economy Robert Cormia Foothill College
Energy Solutions => 2030 • GHG emissions – Climate change • Energy security • Sustainability => ‘Energy Equity’We have less than 20 years to address and solve these problems
Overview• Three problems – one solution – 20 years• GHG limits, climate risk, 80:20 reduction• Energy independence => fossil fuel dependence, hunter gatherer model• Energy equity – new energy model• Systemic change - subsystems approach• New electricity model (DG/IG) – transform energy system from inside out
Energy Issues• GHG emissions => 450 ppm – Lower GHGs 80% in 20 years• Energy security, economics, environmental, geopolitics – Dependence vs. independence – Hunter gatherer model is broken• Systemic energy principles – Clean generation, smart distribution, efficient end-use => systemic change
Vostok Ice Core Data•A near perfect correlation between CO2, temperature, and sea level•For every one ppm CO2, sea level rises 1 meter, temp rises .05 C (global)•Process takes 100 years to add 1 ppm CO2, and reach thermal equilibriumThis is not just a correlation, this is a complex and dynamic process, with multipleinputs. A biogeochemical thermostat. Touching one input affects all other inputs, andincreases in temperature becomes a further feedback and multiplier of these inputs.
Earth Out of Balance http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/
Accelerating Change• Heat storms • Methane release• Droughts • Sea ice extent• Storm intensity • pH of the ocean• Fires / duration • Pest migration• Ice quakes • Sea level rise Ecosystem degradation, loss of biodiversity, failure of ecosystem services
80:20/2050 Stretch Goal • By 2035, reduce GHGs by 80% – Reduce petroleum by 75% – Eliminate the use of coal – Add significant renewables • By 2050, one ton CO2 per capita – Re-innovate nuclear power – Electrify transportation, HVAC – Carbon capture / GHG sequestration
A Subsystems Approach• Renewable energy • Electric vehicles• Distribution systems • Alternative fuels• Smart energy / AMI • Batteries / fuel cells• Energy efficiency • Urban planning• LEED / green building • GHG sequestration Smart policy Smart energy Smart cities Smart citizens
EE 5-6 Key Subsystems • Renewable energy • Transportation • Building efficiency • Storage and conversion • Smart energy / microgrid • GHG Sequestration*GHG Sequestration is employed to reduce the ‘energy imbalance’ in the atmosphere
Systemic Energy Principles • Energy value chain • ‘Smart energy system stack’ – Clean generation – Smart distribution – Efficient end-use • Electricity value chain – Right sourcing energy – Clean energy circuits
Energy Systems Model Natural gas & nuclear 1 Central PowerMacrogrid Systems de-c Clean generation on entr carb alize low- EMS/DMS/GIS d 2 Large-scale 3 Distributed Renewables Resources inte grat tion io n integraMicrogrid 4 Smart Energy Smart distribution Systems DR / AMI HEV /EM EV/P S 5 Advanced 6 Building Energy Transportation EfficiencyNanogrid Efficient end use
Holarchy Systems Model Macrogrid Microgrid Nanogrid
Renewable Energy100 GW Utility Scale Solar Offset Afternoon Loads Produce 150B kWh100 GW Utility Base Load ElectricityHydro Electric Produce 240B kWh Offset Coal Generation Produce 540B kWh200 GW Utility Scale Wind
Every parking space can have solar PV generating clean electricity
Building a Solar Economy• Solar power is a primary, not alternative energy• 25% of electricity could be generated by solar in 2025• Solar brings true energy independence from carbon• It requires a commitment, not just an investment of $s• Research in newer thin film technology shows promise Our Solar Power Future – The US Photovoltaics Industry Roadmap Through 2030 and beyond – published in 2005 http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
Eliminate Coal• Coal is 50% of electricity today• Responsible for 40% US GHG emissions• Responsible for 80% electricity emissions• Replace coal with natural gas and wind – Natural gas has 50% lower GHGs – Wind can provide significant energy• Invest in modernized nuclear power – Thorium, Pebble Bed Modular Reactors
Carbon Intensity of EnergyAn ideal mixture of primary energy for electricity requires significant renewables
2030 Electricity Makeup • 100 GW nuclear 8.76 x 10^11 kWh • 200 GW natural gas 1.75 x 10^12 kWh • 100 GW solar 1.50 x 10^11 kWh • 200 GW wind 5.84 x 10^11 kWh • 100 GW hydro 2.50 x 10^11 kWh • Total system production ~3.6 x 10^12 kWh Final mix of US electrical energy would be the same as California today:~50% natural gas, ~25% nuclear, ~25% renewable (solar, wind, and hydro)
Transportation Increase CAFE from 20 to 50 mpg Decrease ‘gasoline’ demand 50% to 200 mgd Blend 50% of ‘gasoline’ with advanced biofuels Increase ‘biofuels’ from 35 to 100 mgdA combination of efficiency and blending out petroleum reduces GHG emissions
Reduce Petroleum• Cut petrol two-thirds by 2030• It’s a 12 step program!• We made a bad decision• And we need a new vision – A world not built around petrol – A world not built around carbon
Accelerating CostsHas anyone burned a $5 bill lately? Of course not – who would burn money?
Petroleum Reduction• Efficiency (20 mpg to 50 mpg) – Reduce liquid fuels from 400 to < 200 mgd)• Advanced biofuels (not food based) – Yeast, algae, cellulosic ethanol, etc• Blend biofuel with petrol/bitumen 50:50 – High carbon fuel @ 1.25 carbon units – Low carbon fuel @ 0.25 carbon units• Hydrocarbon reduction 370 to ~100 mgd – 200 mgd of ‘biofuel blend’ (0.75 carbon units)
Petroleum Reduction Graphic• Begin at 20 mpg, 3 x 10^12 VMT 400 mgd• ~ 35 mgd of corn ethanol• At 50 mpg CAFE, transpo fuel < 200 mgd• Petroleum reduced from 370 to <100 mgd• Biofuels increased from ~40 to ~ 80 mgd• GHGs =>1.5 x 10^9 tons => 6 x 10^8 tons
Live Without Petroleum?• Americans drive 8 billion miles a day• Full EVs use ~0.3 KwHr per mile – We’d need 2.5 billion KwHrs a day for EV• We use ~10 B KwHrs electricity / day – What if we saved 25% (bldg efficiency)? – We’d have 2.5 billion KwHrs a day for EV• Move to EV and not burn more carbon? – Yes, but it takes a really big commitment!
PHEV AdvantagesHalfway to an all electric vehicle – Plug- in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Google.org study of PHEV efficiency http://www.google.org/recharge/
A Real Electric Vehicle http://www.teslamotors.com/
Too Many Cars! Los Angeles, California in 2030
High Speed Up to 150 mphScalable Networks Local, Regional, National ServiceLow Maintenance Uses maglev instead of wheelsUnder 1000 lbs. Uses aerodynamic vehiclesEnergy Efficient Up to 500 mpg (50 W-hr / mile)Zero Carbon Solar and/or Wind Powered
Move Differently• SolarSegway™• Range ~8 - 12 miles• Battery packs can be charged locally (~5 hrs)• Emission free vehicle – Solar panels ‘extra’• Projected cost of $2,500 in quantity
Efficient Buildings High Efficiency(25% less energy) Decrease total electricity by ~15% => 500B kWhBuilding Integrated Produce ~10 to 15%Photovoltaic (BIPV) building energy onsite Integrate smart energy (DR) into energy mgmt EMS/BMS/DEMS Smart Energy
Storage and ConversionDevelop 10 to 50 GWUtility Scale Storage Provide local on demand energy for RE integration Battery specific Affordable energy 250 wH/kg PHEV/BEV $100 to $250 / kWh Provide onsite / local electrical cogeneration High Efficiency (66%) Fuel Cells (cogeneration)
Storage and Conversion• Strive for 50 to 60% conversion efficiency for natural gas fuel cells and gas turbines• Flex natural gas turbines support RE• $0.20 kWh for utility scale energy storage• Increase mobile battery storage technology – Weak link in electric vehicle adoption – Specific energy and cost reduction targets – Target 500 wH per kg at $125 per kWh
Bloom EnergyThe Bloom Box is the latest energymiracle that sounds too good to be true:Debuting with a wide-eyed segment on 60Minutes, it promises to be clean, cheapand backyard-friendly, the solution to ourenergy problems. What is it? The heart ofthe box is a fuel cell. Though BloomEnergys CEO K.R. Sridhar—a formerNASA scientist—says its a new kind offuel cell. And though its cleaner than anycombustion engine out there, it still relieson fossil fuels and biofuels—not justhydrogen, like some other kinds of fuelcells do. Nevertheless, the folks at Bloomare doing something that could help makereduced emissions a reality for bigbusinesses first, and then later, for homes.
Smart Energy / Platform Electric Vehicle Renewable Energy Charging Network (Wind and Solar) Smart Energy Application Platform Building Energy High performanceManagement (DEMS) storage / conversion
Smart Energy System Stack Electrical Generation Clean generationFlow of Flow of Energy Smart distribution Information Efficient end use Electrical Use SYS-STEMic Energy principles described in Foothill College NSF-ATE Energy Program proposal October 2010
Three Utility Challenges• RPS goals – 33% PV – Distributed generation• Electric Vehicles – Load management – Infrastructure development• Integrate new electrical technology – Internet, smart meter (AMI), smart grid – DC technology (buildings as nanogrids)
Smart Energy Defined• Integrating key technologies – Power grid / distribution – Power generation (RE) – Power systems & AMI – Transportation systems – Telecommunications (HAN) – Information Technology (IT)• A Smart Grid transforms the way power is delivered, consumed and accounted for. Adding intelligence throughout the newly networked grid increases reliability and power quality; improves responsiveness; increases efficiency; handles current and future demand; potentially reduces costs for the provider and consumer; and provides the communication platform for new applications (The Smart Grid in 2010 – Green Tech Media Research)
- Utility Generation Distributed Generation – DG/RE Smart Energy Management Active Distribution Smart Energy Logic Layer - AMIActive Distribution Power Systems Layer Buildings as Nanogrids Electric Vehicle Infrastructure e Application Platform
Smart Energy Solutions• Powerline networking - upgrade network technology without affecting power systems• Build AMI/DA into the same system• Integrate metering/analytics into smart panels, giving buildings ‘active diagnostics’• Build small scale microgrids with nanogrid communication and active distribution• Develop use cases for smart energy circuits
A New Energy Economy• $1 - 2 trillion in solar and wind energy• $1 trillion in a new power grid• $2.5 trillion in fuel saving cars – $1 trillion in new electric motor and battery technology for cars and other appliances• Smart energy for the electron economy – a melding of the Internet and ‘the grid’• This is a once in a lifetime opportunity!
Problems/Challenges• Developing and deploying a new power system while an existing one is in place• ‘grafting’ internet technology into power systems isn’t a complete architectural model• Job of replacing the current distribution grid is not insignificant – it took 50 years to build it• ICT / technology is evolving at a much faster rate than power systems technology
Synergies and Why• Energy storage – EVs and RE integration• Adv. Biofuels – blend with petroleum• Smart energy systems – grid stability• High efficiency buildings and EMS/BMS – energy reduction and load management• Gas turbines – flex to integrate RE• Fuel cell – local natural gas electricity – Local energy ‘firming’ for RE integration• Smart Energy – connecting all the pieces
An Apollo Program?Energy Equity – 5 million jobs • 2035 => 25 year vision • Connecting the dots • Mission and a purpose • Milestones and timeline http://apolloalliance.org/ • We can do this in 20 years!
Where to Learn More• DOE smart grid -http://www.oe.energy.gov/smartgrid.htm• Global Smart Energy - http://www.globalsmartenergy.com/• Apollo Alliance - http://www.apolloalliance.org/• PG&E Pacific Energy Center- http://www.pge.com/pec/• Our Solar Power Future – http://www.sandia.gov/pv/docs/PDF/PV_Road_Map.pdf• Wind Energy Report – AIWA http://www.awea.org/• EPRI IntelliGrid - http://intelligrid.epri.com/• Worldwatch Institute - http://www.worldwatch.org/