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Building theElectron Economy Robert Cormia Foothill College
Energy Solutions => 2030 • GHG emissions – Climate change • Energy security • Sustainability => ‘Energy Equity’We have less than 20 years to address and solve these problems
Overview• Three problems – one solution – 20 years• GHG limits, climate risk, 80:20 reduction• Energy independence => fossil fuel dependence, hunter gatherer model• Energy equity – new energy model• Systemic change - subsystems approach• New electricity model (DG/IG) – transform energy system from inside out
Energy Issues• GHG emissions => 450 ppm – Lower GHGs 80% in 20 years• Energy security, economics, environmental, geopolitics – Dependence vs. independence – Hunter gatherer model is broken• Systemic energy principles – Clean generation, smart distribution, efficient end-use => systemic change
Vostok Ice Core Data•A near perfect correlation between CO2, temperature, and sea level•For every one ppm CO2, sea level rises 1 meter, temp rises .05 C (global)•Process takes 100 years to add 1 ppm CO2, and reach thermal equilibriumThis is not just a correlation, this is a complex and dynamic process, with multipleinputs. A biogeochemical thermostat. Touching one input affects all other inputs, andincreases in temperature becomes a further feedback and multiplier of these inputs.
Earth Out of Balance http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/
Accelerating Change• Heat storms • Methane release• Droughts • Sea ice extent• Storm intensity • pH of the ocean• Fires / duration • Pest migration• Ice quakes • Sea level rise Ecosystem degradation, loss of biodiversity, failure of ecosystem services
80:20/2050 Stretch Goal • By 2035, reduce GHGs by 80% – Reduce petroleum by 75% – Eliminate the use of coal – Add significant renewables • By 2050, one ton CO2 per capita – Re-innovate nuclear power – Electrify transportation, HVAC – Carbon capture / GHG sequestration
A Subsystems Approach• Renewable energy • Electric vehicles• Distribution systems • Alternative fuels• Smart energy / AMI • Batteries / fuel cells• Energy efficiency • Urban planning• LEED / green building • GHG sequestration Smart policy Smart energy Smart cities Smart citizens
EE 5-6 Key Subsystems • Renewable energy • Transportation • Building efficiency • Storage and conversion • Smart energy / microgrid • GHG Sequestration*GHG Sequestration is employed to reduce the ‘energy imbalance’ in the atmosphere
Systemic Energy Principles • Energy value chain • ‘Smart energy system stack’ – Clean generation – Smart distribution – Efficient end-use • Electricity value chain – Right sourcing energy – Clean energy circuits
Energy Systems Model Natural gas & nuclear 1 Central PowerMacrogrid Systems de-c Clean generation on entr carb alize low- EMS/DMS/GIS d 2 Large-scale 3 Distributed Renewables Resources inte grat tion io n integraMicrogrid 4 Smart Energy Smart distribution Systems DR / AMI HEV /EM EV/P S 5 Advanced 6 Building Energy Transportation EfficiencyNanogrid Efficient end use
Holarchy Systems Model Macrogrid Microgrid Nanogrid
Renewable Energy100 GW Utility Scale Solar Offset Afternoon Loads Produce 150B kWh100 GW Utility Base Load ElectricityHydro Electric Produce 240B kWh Offset Coal Generation Produce 540B kWh200 GW Utility Scale Wind
Every parking space can have solar PV generating clean electricity
Building a Solar Economy• Solar power is a primary, not alternative energy• 25% of electricity could be generated by solar in 2025• Solar brings true energy independence from carbon• It requires a commitment, not just an investment of $s• Research in newer thin film technology shows promise Our Solar Power Future – The US Photovoltaics Industry Roadmap Through 2030 and beyond – published in 2005 http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
Eliminate Coal• Coal is 50% of electricity today• Responsible for 40% US GHG emissions• Responsible for 80% electricity emissions• Replace coal with natural gas and wind – Natural gas has 50% lower GHGs – Wind can provide significant energy• Invest in modernized nuclear power – Thorium, Pebble Bed Modular Reactors
Carbon Intensity of EnergyAn ideal mixture of primary energy for electricity requires significant renewables
2030 Electricity Makeup • 100 GW nuclear 8.76 x 10^11 kWh • 200 GW natural gas 1.75 x 10^12 kWh • 100 GW solar 1.50 x 10^11 kWh • 200 GW wind 5.84 x 10^11 kWh • 100 GW hydro 2.50 x 10^11 kWh • Total system production ~3.6 x 10^12 kWh Final mix of US electrical energy would be the same as California today:~50% natural gas, ~25% nuclear, ~25% renewable (solar, wind, and hydro)
Transportation Increase CAFE from 20 to 50 mpg Decrease ‘gasoline’ demand 50% to 200 mgd Blend 50% of ‘gasoline’ with advanced biofuels Increase ‘biofuels’ from 35 to 100 mgdA combination of efficiency and blending out petroleum reduces GHG emissions
Reduce Petroleum• Cut petrol two-thirds by 2030• It’s a 12 step program!• We made a bad decision• And we need a new vision – A world not built around petrol – A world not built around carbon
Accelerating CostsHas anyone burned a $5 bill lately? Of course not – who would burn money?
Petroleum Reduction• Efficiency (20 mpg to 50 mpg) – Reduce liquid fuels from 400 to < 200 mgd)• Advanced biofuels (not food based) – Yeast, algae, cellulosic ethanol, etc• Blend biofuel with petrol/bitumen 50:50 – High carbon fuel @ 1.25 carbon units – Low carbon fuel @ 0.25 carbon units• Hydrocarbon reduction 370 to ~100 mgd – 200 mgd of ‘biofuel blend’ (0.75 carbon units)
Petroleum Reduction Graphic• Begin at 20 mpg, 3 x 10^12 VMT 400 mgd• ~ 35 mgd of corn ethanol• At 50 mpg CAFE, transpo fuel < 200 mgd• Petroleum reduced from 370 to <100 mgd• Biofuels increased from ~40 to ~ 80 mgd• GHGs =>1.5 x 10^9 tons => 6 x 10^8 tons
Live Without Petroleum?• Americans drive 8 billion miles a day• Full EVs use ~0.3 KwHr per mile – We’d need 2.5 billion KwHrs a day for EV• We use ~10 B KwHrs electricity / day – What if we saved 25% (bldg efficiency)? – We’d have 2.5 billion KwHrs a day for EV• Move to EV and not burn more carbon? – Yes, but it takes a really big commitment!
PHEV AdvantagesHalfway to an all electric vehicle – Plug- in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Google.org study of PHEV efficiency http://www.google.org/recharge/
A Real Electric Vehicle http://www.teslamotors.com/
Too Many Cars! Los Angeles, California in 2030
High Speed Up to 150 mphScalable Networks Local, Regional, National ServiceLow Maintenance Uses maglev instead of wheelsUnder 1000 lbs. Uses aerodynamic vehiclesEnergy Efficient Up to 500 mpg (50 W-hr / mile)Zero Carbon Solar and/or Wind Powered
Move Differently• SolarSegway™• Range ~8 - 12 miles• Battery packs can be charged locally (~5 hrs)• Emission free vehicle – Solar panels ‘extra’• Projected cost of $2,500 in quantity
Efficient Buildings High Efficiency(25% less energy) Decrease total electricity by ~15% => 500B kWhBuilding Integrated Produce ~10 to 15%Photovoltaic (BIPV) building energy onsite Integrate smart energy (DR) into energy mgmt EMS/BMS/DEMS Smart Energy
Storage and ConversionDevelop 10 to 50 GWUtility Scale Storage Provide local on demand energy for RE integration Battery specific Affordable energy 250 wH/kg PHEV/BEV $100 to $250 / kWh Provide onsite / local electrical cogeneration High Efficiency (66%) Fuel Cells (cogeneration)
Storage and Conversion• Strive for 50 to 60% conversion efficiency for natural gas fuel cells and gas turbines• Flex natural gas turbines support RE• $0.20 kWh for utility scale energy storage• Increase mobile battery storage technology – Weak link in electric vehicle adoption – Specific energy and cost reduction targets – Target 500 wH per kg at $125 per kWh
Bloom EnergyThe Bloom Box is the latest energymiracle that sounds too good to be true:Debuting with a wide-eyed segment on 60Minutes, it promises to be clean, cheapand backyard-friendly, the solution to ourenergy problems. What is it? The heart ofthe box is a fuel cell. Though BloomEnergys CEO K.R. Sridhar—a formerNASA scientist—says its a new kind offuel cell. And though its cleaner than anycombustion engine out there, it still relieson fossil fuels and biofuels—not justhydrogen, like some other kinds of fuelcells do. Nevertheless, the folks at Bloomare doing something that could help makereduced emissions a reality for bigbusinesses first, and then later, for homes.
Smart Energy / Platform Electric Vehicle Renewable Energy Charging Network (Wind and Solar) Smart Energy Application Platform Building Energy High performanceManagement (DEMS) storage / conversion
Smart Energy System Stack Electrical Generation Clean generationFlow of Flow of Energy Smart distribution Information Efficient end use Electrical Use SYS-STEMic Energy principles described in Foothill College NSF-ATE Energy Program proposal October 2010
Three Utility Challenges• RPS goals – 33% PV – Distributed generation• Electric Vehicles – Load management – Infrastructure development• Integrate new electrical technology – Internet, smart meter (AMI), smart grid – DC technology (buildings as nanogrids)
Smart Energy Defined• Integrating key technologies – Power grid / distribution – Power generation (RE) – Power systems & AMI – Transportation systems – Telecommunications (HAN) – Information Technology (IT)• A Smart Grid transforms the way power is delivered, consumed and accounted for. Adding intelligence throughout the newly networked grid increases reliability and power quality; improves responsiveness; increases efficiency; handles current and future demand; potentially reduces costs for the provider and consumer; and provides the communication platform for new applications (The Smart Grid in 2010 – Green Tech Media Research)
- Utility Generation Distributed Generation – DG/RE Smart Energy Management Active Distribution Smart Energy Logic Layer - AMIActive Distribution Power Systems Layer Buildings as Nanogrids Electric Vehicle Infrastructure e Application Platform
Smart Energy Solutions• Powerline networking - upgrade network technology without affecting power systems• Build AMI/DA into the same system• Integrate metering/analytics into smart panels, giving buildings ‘active diagnostics’• Build small scale microgrids with nanogrid communication and active distribution• Develop use cases for smart energy circuits
A New Energy Economy• $1 - 2 trillion in solar and wind energy• $1 trillion in a new power grid• $2.5 trillion in fuel saving cars – $1 trillion in new electric motor and battery technology for cars and other appliances• Smart energy for the electron economy – a melding of the Internet and ‘the grid’• This is a once in a lifetime opportunity!
Problems/Challenges• Developing and deploying a new power system while an existing one is in place• ‘grafting’ internet technology into power systems isn’t a complete architectural model• Job of replacing the current distribution grid is not insignificant – it took 50 years to build it• ICT / technology is evolving at a much faster rate than power systems technology
Synergies and Why• Energy storage – EVs and RE integration• Adv. Biofuels – blend with petroleum• Smart energy systems – grid stability• High efficiency buildings and EMS/BMS – energy reduction and load management• Gas turbines – flex to integrate RE• Fuel cell – local natural gas electricity – Local energy ‘firming’ for RE integration• Smart Energy – connecting all the pieces
An Apollo Program?Energy Equity – 5 million jobs • 2035 => 25 year vision • Connecting the dots • Mission and a purpose • Milestones and timeline http://apolloalliance.org/ • We can do this in 20 years!
Where to Learn More• DOE smart grid -http://www.oe.energy.gov/smartgrid.htm• Global Smart Energy - http://www.globalsmartenergy.com/• Apollo Alliance - http://www.apolloalliance.org/• PG&E Pacific Energy Center- http://www.pge.com/pec/• Our Solar Power Future – http://www.sandia.gov/pv/docs/PDF/PV_Road_Map.pdf• Wind Energy Report – AIWA http://www.awea.org/• EPRI IntelliGrid - http://intelligrid.epri.com/• Worldwatch Institute - http://www.worldwatch.org/