Day2 session 3: Morocco

290 views

Published on

End-Use Energy Efficiency: National Plan for Regional Energy Challenge 26 - 27 July, 2010

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
290
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Day2 session 3: Morocco

  1. 1. Euro-MediterraneanEnergy Market Integration Project Germany France Lebanon End Use Energy Efficiency: National Plans for Regional Energy Challenges Belgium Presentation of Budget Allocation Charts - Morocco Germany Tunis, 26th – 27th, July, 2010 M.Mohammed HMAMOUCHI BAC Expert – Morocco “The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the author and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union”. This project is funded by the European Union 1
  2. 2.  Country Energy Overview Country Potential EE and RE Technologies Budget Allocation Chart (BAC) Objective Methodology for the BAC Methodology for the BAC RE/EE BAC Output Next Steps This project is funded by the European Union
  3. 3.  Contribution of energy to the national economy Energy bill (facture énergétique) Royalties received from the transit pipeline Maghreb Europe Evolution of energy balance Evolution of electricity consumption Evolution of the electricity demand (Gwh) Electricity demand in 2030 This project is funded by the European Union 3
  4. 4. Contribution of energy to the national economy 1euro = 11 DH (Dirham) 2002 2006 2007 2008 2009 Tax Revenue (Billion DH) 12 12,5 15 16 - Energy Bill (Billion DH) 19,1 44,4 51,8 70,6 54,2 Energy Consumption (Mtoe) 10,5 12,9 13,7 14,8 15,1 Investments (Billion DH) 5 8 10 17 - Consumption (Toe/capita) 0,36 0,42 0,45 0,47 0,48 This project is funded by the European Union
  5. 5. Energy bill (facture énergétique) (Billions of dirhams) 2002 2006 2007 2008 2009 Crude Oil & petroleum 16,2 39,7 45,9 61,5 45,5 products Coal 2,5 3,6 4,3 6,5 4,4 Electricity 0,4 1,1 1,6 2,6 4,3 Total 19,1 44,4 51,8 70,6 54,2 This project is funded by the European Union
  6. 6. Royalties received from the transit pipeline MaghrebEurope (in Million Nm3) 2002 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total royalties 613 785 757 813 658 This project is funded by the European Union
  7. 7. Evolution of energy balance ( in ktoe) 2002 2006 2007 2008 2009Production 330 370 365 374 820Oil and Natural Gas 61 66 60 59 50Hydro 219 256 235 238 668Wind 50 48 70 77 102Consumption 10461 12901 13734 14794 15118Petroleum products 6445 7713 8069 9115 9181Coal 3337 3878 3910 3723 3379Hydro 219 256 235 238 668Naturel Gas 48 479 540 533 586Imported electricity 362 527 910 1108 1202Wind 50 48 70 77 102Share of Petroleum Products (%) 61,6 59,8 58,8 61,6 60,7Energy Dependence (%) 96,8 97,1 97,3 97,5 94,6 This project is funded by the European Union
  8. 8. Evolution of electricity consumption (ONE) Evolution indicielle de la consommation délectricité, du PIB et de la population (base 100 : 1988) 350 300 250 200 150 100 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Population PIB Consommation délectricité This project is funded by the European Union
  9. 9. Evolution of the electricity demand (Gwh) This project is funded by the European Union
  10. 10. Electricity demand in 2030 This project is funded by the European Union
  11. 11.  Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency are major components of the current Moroccan energy strategy. In 2020, the part of Renewable Energies should represent nearly 20% of the total energy consumption and 42% of electricity consumption. The main objective of the Energy Efficiency measures is to save in 2020 over 15% ( 19% for housing). For the case study, the selection of the EE and RE technologies was based on the avalable data and information on the new national energy strategy and meetings established with some concerned organizations like Ministry of Enegy and Mines, Office National de lElectricité et lAgence de développement des énergies renouvelables et de lefficacité This project is funded énergétique (ex. CDER). by the European Union 11
  12. 12. Renewable Energies Solar; Wind; Biomass; Geothermal; Hydro;… This project is funded by the European Union
  13. 13. Place of RE in the national mix power (ONE) National Energy Strategy: This project is funded by the European Union RE 42% in 2020
  14. 14. Energy EfficiencyFour pillars: Legislative and regulatory frameworks; The institutional and organizational arrangments for promotion and facilitation; Sectoral action programs or transverse, national and local (industries, tertiary, services, households, housing); Funding mechanisms. National Energy Strategy: Save in 2020 over 15% ( 19% for housing ) This project is funded by the European Union
  15. 15.  BAC shows the additional energy savings and net costs of several technologies/options (from the societal perspective); Policy-makers can see on the BACs:  technology / option with the highest energy savings  most cost effective technology / option With BACs, policy makers can identify easily the best option according to the priority:  Cost savings  Energy savings This project is funded by the European Union 15
  16. 16.  BACs also shows :  Maximal benefit (minimal net costs) by implementing all measures with negative net costs/ improvement of the competitiveness;  Maximal energy saving without extra-costs/improvement of the security of energy supplies; BACs deliver information in a simple way to policy makers  on one single chart: energy potential and cost-effectiveness  of several technologies/options  ranking of options (according to increasing net-costs) With BACs: policy makers see clearly where to act. This project is funded by the European Union
  17. 17. Scenarios and scenarios comparisonAdditional Energy SavingsNet Costs of Energy SavedScenarios and scenarios comparisonBAC is a method to compare 2 scenarios.  Main difference between scenarios and forecasts:  forecasts and prognoses aim to describe how the future will be;  scenarios aim to describe how the future might be under certain assumptions or to show a possible path in order to achieve a goal in the future.  Different options for choice of baseline: Depending on the objective of the analysis. This project is funded by the European Union 17
  18. 18. The scenarios considered are: Business As Usual Scenario (BAU or Reference Scenario) =>market shares of Energy Efficiency Technologies increase according to the actual trend, same for the RE capacities Energy Efficiency Scenario (EE Scenario):=> EE Technologies market shares are high (if EE = Best Available Technology, BAT market share is almost 100%), fast build up of RE capacities.BAC: X-Axis: Additional Energy Saving Potentials (for EE) and/orAdditional Energy Generation Potentials (for RE)=>Additional Energy Savings Potentials (of the conventional electricity mix) Y-Axis: Net Costs of Energy Saved (for EE) and/or Net Costs of Energy Generation (for RE)=>Net Costs of Energy Saved (of the conventional electricity mix) This project is funded by the European Union
  19. 19. Additional Energy Savings Determination of Specific energy consumption in BAU and EE scenarios Calculation of the whole stock of EE technology: estimation of the Additional Number of BAT technology Units (ANBU) in EE-scenario (compared to BAU scenario)ANBU2020 =NBU2020,EE − NBU2020,BAUNBU2020 = NBU2015- NRBU2020-2015+ (SG2020-2015 + NRU2020-2015) x MSB2015-2020NBU: Number of BAT technology UnitsNRBU: Number of Replaced BAT technology Units (lifetime exceeded)SG: Stock Growth (stock in 2020 – stock in 2015)NRU: Number of Replaced technology Units (all: BAT and not BAT)MSB: Market Share of BAT technology. Calculation of Additional Energy Savings=ASES (AdditionalSpecific Energy Savings) x ANBU(Additional Number of BAT technology Units) This project is funded by the European Union
  20. 20. Costs of Energy Saved (CES)Only the additional costs of the BAT technology have to be consideredCalculation of the levelised additional costs per year (ΔA): ΔA = A(ΔI0) + CF; with:A(ΔI0):annuity of additional investment of BAT vs. not BAT technologyCF: average annual cash flows (saved energy and O&M costs) CES = ΔA/ASESNet Costs of Energy Saved (NCES)Net costs =Additional costs of technical or organisational energy efficiency measures (additional compared to the baseline case) - Long-run avoided system costs for the supply of energy (including or excluding external costs) - Avoided maintenance costs of the technology (or plus additional maintenance costs) NCES = CES – LASC With LASC (Long-run Avoided System Costs) include: Full generation costs at border crossing, For electricity: long-run avoided system costs for transmission and distribution, grid-losses, and reserve capacities. This project is funded by the European Union
  21. 21. Case StudyData collection: documentation analyses from the government institutions (Ministry of Energy & Mines, Electricity authority, agency of development of renewable energies and energy efficiency), meeting and discussion with some Moroccan expertsPrimary, generation, consumer energy prices considered:Primary energy prices: default valuesGeneration, consumer: information collected from the Ministry of Energy & Electricity authorityAvoided electricity costs for end users: determined on the basis of data we nomally use in the studies of energy planning completed by information from Electricity authorityAvoided energy supply costs for national economy: ditto This project is funded by the European Union 21
  22. 22.  Renewable technologies country potential. Resultsof the excel sheets RE Potential for each RE technologies. Conclusions. This project is funded by the European Union 22
  23. 23. Methodology for the BAC/RE: Potential This project is funded by the European Union
  24. 24. Methodology for the BAC/RE: Results of the excelsheets RE Potential for each RE technologies This project is funded by the European Union
  25. 25. Methodology for the BAC/RE: Conclusions The potential of Renewable Energies will grow from 2024 MW in 2010 to 7542 MW in 2020. This evolution means that the grow rate of installed capacity for the RE will be about 14% per year. During the same period, the production of energy from the RE will be multiplied by four, it will go from 4 Twh/a to nearly 18 This project is funded by the European Union
  26. 26.  Efficient technologies country potential. Resultsof the excel sheets EE Potential for each EE technologies. Conclusions. This project is funded by the European Union 26
  27. 27. Most efficient fridges EE1.11/ Results This project is funded by the European Union
  28. 28. A++ clothes washers EE1.12 / Results This project is funded by the European Union
  29. 29. CFL instead of Incand. light EE1.13 / Results This project is funded by the European Union
  30. 30. More efficient compressors EE2.9 / Results This project is funded by the European Union
  31. 31. Daylight sensor EE2.10 / Results This project is funded by the European Union
  32. 32. Good housekeeping EE3.9 / Results This project is funded by the European Union
  33. 33. Heating EE3.1 / Results This project is funded by the European Union
  34. 34. High pressure sodium EE3.10 / Results This project is funded by the European Union
  35. 35. Methodology for the BAC/EE: ConclusionsTech. Technically feasible total electricity saving in 2020: 2,56 Twh equivalent to 6% of projected domestic demand in 2020EE1.11EE1.12EE1.13EE2.9EE2.10EE3.9EE3.1EE3.10 This project is funded by the European Union
  36. 36.  Output intermediate result Output (ThinkCells) Budget Allocation Charts Budget Allocation Charts (Accumulated net costs) This project is funded by the European Union 36
  37. 37. Output intermediate result This project is funded by the European Union
  38. 38. Output (ThinkCells) This project is funded by the European Union
  39. 39. Budget Allocation Charts This project is funded by the European Union
  40. 40. Budget Allocation Charts (Accumulated net costs) This project is funded by the European Union
  41. 41.  Information and dissemination of the BAC-model and its results. Workshops to the attention of departments, agencies or communities concerned with targeting receptive and players can multiply and reproduce the actions of dissemination. Assistance to (cooperation with) specific sectors or communities for the implementation of concrete actions. This project is funded by the European Union 41
  42. 42. Thank youThis project is fundedby the European Union 42

×