Day2 - session 3 Construction of a set of indicators for monitoring energy efficiency in the SEMCs - Plan Bleu Project
Construction of a set of indicators for monitoring energy efficiency in the SEMCs - Plan Bleu project - End Use Energy Efficiency: National Plans for Regional Energy Challenges Tunis, 26th – 27th, July, 2010 by El Habib EL ANDALOUSSI Programme Officer- Energy, Plan Bleu
Plan of the presentationEnergy context in the SEMCsObjectifves and expected results of the studySteps of the studyOrganisation of the study
Demography and Economy in the SEMCs Population growth 2.2%/y between 1971 & 2008. (from 125 to 282 millions in 2008 in the SEMCs) GDP growth4%/year between 1971 & 2007. (from $440b to $1954b in 2007 in the SEMCs)
Energy intensity in 2006 ( toe per GDP unit - Millions of euros 2005 ppp)Source : WDI, IEA, Plan Bleu computation
Energy situation in the SEMCs Total Final Enegy Consumption cin the SEMCs : - by Sector - by Source
CO2 Emissions in the SEMCsCO2 Emissions by Sector in the SEMCs
Energy situation in the SEMCsSustained growth in demand in SEMCs Electricity: nearly 4% per year between 2007 and 2030 Primary Energy Demand: 3% per year SEMCs Energy Demand (Mtoe ) % annual growthReference Scenario 1970 2007 2030 1970-2007 2007-2030Primary Energy Demand 44 306 626 5.4% 3.2% Total Final Cons. (TFC) 35 213 429 5.0% 3.1% Transport 10 57 95 4.9% 2,.% Residential 12 53 125 4.1% 3.8% Industry 9 67 137 5.6% 3.1% Other cons. 4 34 73 6.1% 3.4%Power Production (TWh) 32 534 1302 7.9% 3.9% CO2 Emissions (Mt) 65 775 1535 6.9% 3.0%
Energy situation in the SEMCs Increased energy dependency
Needs for energy efficiency policies Need to put in place accelerated energy efficiency policies Need for methodologies and tools for monitoring and evaluation of energy demand side management policies.About 90 Mtoe
Objectives and expected results of the studyStrengthening the capacity of SEMCs in monitoring their energypolicies by using the indicator approach to energy management.Construct and interpret a set of relevant indicators of energyconservation in the SEMCs.Construct and interpret a set of energy conservation socio-economic impact indicators.Target countries Algeria Preparation of a background Egypt paper presenting an aggregated Jordan analysis of indicators at the region level and a comparative Lebanon analysis between the concerned Libya countries. Morocco Palestine Syria Tunisia
Overview on indicator approach: Why we need indicators?Definition and monitoring of the targets set at thenational and international levels of energy efficiencyand CO2 abatement programs.Evaluation of the energy efficiency programs thathave been implemented.Planning tool of future actions, including R&Dprograms.Feeding the energy demand forecasting models andimproving the quality of forecasts.Enable cross-country comparisons andbenchmarking.
Overview on indicator approach: Categories of indicators?Descriptive indicators Energy intensity at macro level, by energy Energy intensity at sector level Specific consumption in branches Unit consumption, etc.Explicative indicators Indicators at constant structure Indicators with climate corrections Indicators at Parity of Power Purchase Quantity effects Consumption unit effect Energy saving Energy efficiency indexSocio-impact indicators
Steps of the studyPreparation phase Choice of indicators in a participating approach Preparation of the data needed Preparation of the tool for calculating indicators Recruiting experts countriesOrganization of workshops with national experts :Workshops of 2 to 3 days.Data collection and preparation of country reportsProject coordination and assistance to national expertsOrganizing a workshop to discuss applications and work ofnational experts: workshops of 2 to 3 daysPreparation of final reportOrganization of a workshop final refundDissemination and exploitation of results
Study Organisation Organization of implementation A general coordinator of the mission 9 national experts Transfer the experience of Tunisia to other countries (methodology, tools, expertise) Integration of data and results to Plan Bleu database, opened to the all users Planning of the study M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12 M13 M14 M15Etape 1: PréparationEtape 2: Atelier de travail avec les expertsEtape 3: Collectes des données et élaboration des rapports paysEtape 4: Coordination et assistance aux consultantsEtape 5: Atelier de restitution des travaux des consultantsEtape 6 : Elaboration du rapportEtape 7 : Atelier final Duration of the study : 15 months
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION For more informationwww.planbleu.org Contact :ehelandaloussi @planbleu.org 15
Electricity in the MedElectricity in the Mediterranean
MEDITERRANEAN : Evolution of the parameters (1970=index 100)Strong growth on the energy & electricity consumptions in the Med.
Energy & Electricity Potential Savings in the Med, by 2025-2030 Potential of Energy & Electricity savings in the Mediterranean, if efforts in the EE policies.
Energy situation in the SEMCs Increased energy dependency 79% 70%
Energy economies potential, 1980-2005 (nanojoules) Potential energy savings in the SEMCs, if efforts in EE policies.
CO2 Emissions in the SEMCs CO2 Emissions in the SEMCs.