Plenary 1 - The Science of Climate Change


Published on

Presentation of Dr. Tolentino Moya, Professor, Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology, University of the Philippines Diliman, during the UP Manila Conference on Global Climate Change, held October 22-23, 2009 at the Pearl Garden Hotel, Manila.

Published in: Education, Technology
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  •  There’s no issue that’s as hotly contested and debated in science, politics, and on the street as global warming.  But, all scientists, researchers, academicians, skeptics, deniers, people on the street all agree that the Earth, our very own Planet is warming…  The global average surface temperature has indeed increased, on the one hand, as a consequence anthropogenic emissions acc to global warming believers and champions. On the other hand, g lobal warming skeptics emphasized research indicating that a significant part of the 20 th -century temperature change is due to solar activity influence.  Specifically, an increase of 1 o C in a period of 100 To 200 years would be considered global warming.  Over the course of a single century, even 0.4 o C Would be considered significant. FAQ 3.1, Figure 1. (Top) Annual global mean observed temperatures 1 (black dots) along with simple fits to the data. The left hand axis shows anomalies relative to the 1961 to 1990 average and the right hand axis shows the estimated actual temperature (°C). Linear trend fits to the last 25 (yellow), 50 (orange), 100 (purple) and 150 years (red) are shown, and correspond to 1981 to 2005, 1956 to 2005, 1906 to 2005, and 1856 to 2005, respectively. Note that for shorter recent periods, the slope is greater, Indicating accelerated warming. The blue curve is a smoothed depiction to capture the decadal variations. To give an idea of whether the fluctuations are meaningful, decadal 5% to 95% (light grey) error ranges about that line are given (accordingly, annual values do exceed those limits). Results from climate models driven by estimated radiative forcings for the 20th century (Chapter 9) suggest that there was little change prior to about 1915, and that a substantial fraction of the early 20th-century change was contributed by naturally occurring influences including solar radiation changes, volcanism and natural variability. From about 1940 to 1970 the increasing industrialisation following World War II increased pollution in the Northern Hemisphere, contributing to cooling, and increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases dominate the observed warming after the mid-1970s. 1 From the HadCRUT3 data set.
  • However, given the increasing concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere, earth’s surface temperature is predicted to rise up to 7 o C.  For instance, these figures show the variation in CO 2 and temperature during both the 400,000 years.  The rise and fall in temperature correlates very well with the increase and decrease of CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere.  Despite the high correlation, GHG skeptics emphasized that temperature increase/decrease trail or lag behind the recorded increase/decrease in CO 2 concentration.  they found an opportunity to jump onto climate scientists’ claim that what the Earth is going through now is GHG-INDUCED GLOBAL WARMING;  some even calling them global warming swindler  My own analysis is that this temperature behavior inhere from the TIME LAG characteristic of a dynamic system, like the climate system  Increased GHG concentration in the atmosphere, via increased temperature, could disrupt and the climate system and bring about surprises.  Climate scientists and researchers input these measured data (temperature and CO2 concentrations) as forcings into climate models first to find out whether they can pospdict historical temperature.  Good model performance, allowed them to predict future climate scenarios.
  • The impacts of global change are not likely to be distributed evenly throughout the world. For instance, the following graph of the world shows that estimates of temperature and precipitation changes very in different parts of the world.  Some areas (primarily in the northern latitudes) will experience increased precipitation, whereas  other areas will experience decreased precipitation. 
  • Figure TS.18. Annual averages of the global mean sea level based on reconstructed sea level fields since 1870 (red), tide gauge measurements since 1950 (blue) and satellite a ltimetry since 1992 (black). Units are in mm relative to the average for 1961 to 1990. Error bars are 90% confidence intervals. {Figure 5.13}  Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)  Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr 2  If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic Thermal expansion of oceans Mountain glaciers melting Melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets All Greenland = 7m All Antarctica = 60-70m Just WAIS = 5-6m
  • FAQ 5.1, Figure 1. Time series of global mean sea level (deviation from the 1980-1999 mean) in the past and as projected for the future. For the period before 1870, global measurements of sea level are not available. The grey shading shows the uncertainty in the estimated long-term rate of sea level change (Section 6.4.3). The red line is a reconstruction of global mean sea level from tide gauges (Section, and the red shading denotes the range of variations from a smooth curve. The green line shows global mean sea level observed from satellite altimetry. The blue shading represents the range of model projections for the SRES A1B scenario for the 21st century, relative to the 1980 to 1999 mean, and has been calculated independently from the observations. Beyond 2100, the projections are increasingly dependent on the emissions scenario (see Chapter 10 for a discussion of sea level rise projections for other scenarios considered in this report). Over many centuries or millennia, sea level could rise by several metres (Section 10.7.4).
  • El Nino and La Nina are extreme phases of naturally occuring climate cycle referred to as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both terms refer to large-scale changes in sea-surface temperature across the eastern tropical Pacific. Usually, sea-surface readings off South America's west coast range from 60-70 deg F (16-21 deg C), while they exceed 80 deg F (27 deg C) in the "warm pool" located in the central and western Pacific. This warm pool expands to cover the tropics during El Nino, but during La Nina, the easterly trade winds strengthen and the cold upwelling along the equator and the West coast of South America intensifies. Sea-surface temperatures along the equator can fall as much as 7 deg F (-14 dg C) below normal. El Nino and La Nina conditions recur every few years and can persist for as long as two years. (source: Sources: - Base Map with Administrative Boundaries (UTM Projection), NAMRIA - Field Information Manual on El Nino July 1997, BSWM - 1998 Philippine Statistical Yearbook, NSO - El Nino and La Nina Definition, NOAA Methodology: Degree of Vulnerability of El Nino and La Nina based on PAGASA's Climate Map, slope, flooding and elevation. Note to Users: This map is version 1.0 and is under development. The Manila Observatory would appreciate feedback on the veracity of spatial data. Manila Observatory Support for Greenhouse Gas Inventory Philippine Climate Change Program Development, 1999
  •  If we examine global warming from the perspective of the two hemispheres, we find that temperatures in the northern hemisphere have increased much more than temperatures in the southern hemisphere. So, since two thirds of the earth’s land mass is in the northern hemisphere, we would expect global warming to have its largest impact there.  In a similar fashion, temperatures over land masses have increased much more than temperatures over the oceans. This is because the oceans tend to moderate temperature changes.
  • Figure 5.1. Time series of global annual ocean heat content (10 22 J) for the 0 to 700 m layer. The black curve is updated from Levitus et al. (2005a), with the shading representing the 90% confidence interval. The red and green curves are updates of the analyses by Ishii et al. (2006) and Willis et al. (2004, over 0 to 750 m) respectively, with the error bars denoting the 90% confidence interval. The black and red curves denote the deviation from the 1961 to 1990 average and the shorter green curve denotes the deviation from the average of the black curve for the period 1993 to 2003. Figure 3.8. Annual anomalies (°C) of global average SST (blue curve, begins 1850), NMAT (green curve, begins 1856) and land-surface air temperature (red curve, begins 1850) to 2005, relative to their 1961 to 1990 means (Brohan et al., 2006; Rayner et al., 2006). The smooth curves show decadal variations (see Appendix 3.A). Inset shows the smoothed differences between the land-surface air temperature and SST anomalies (i.e., red minus blue).
  • Figure 20.13 Natural capital degradation : possible effects of global warming on the geographic range of beech trees based on ecological evidence and computer models. According to one projection, if CO 2 emissions doubled between 1990 and 2050, beech trees (now common throughout the eastern United States) would survive only in a greatly reduced range in northern Maine and southeastern Canada. Similarly, native sugar maples would likely disappear in the northeastern United States. QUESTION: What difference does it make if the range of beech trees changes? (Data from Margaret B. Davis and Catherine Zabinski, University of Minnesota)
  • Global warming will affect peoples throughout the world. For example,  Fewer deaths will result from cold weather, but more deaths will result from heat waves  Initially, decreased thermohaline circulation will result in  cooler temperatures in North Atlantic.  The CO2 fertilization effect will increase crop yields by up to 30%  Precipitation changes will result in  droughts and famine in some areas and  expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union 
  • There are winners and losers in the global warming game…
  • Depending upon the scenario,  the cost to stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations will be expensive (from 200 times the U.S. annual budget) to very expensive (up to 900 times the U.S. annual budget). 
  • Methods of mitigating global warming include  Conservation  Reduce energy needs, such as electrical usage, petroleum usage, reduced packaging  Recycling, which uses less energy to produce products compared to  Another way to reduce carbon emissions is to use alternate energy sources, such as  Nuclear  Wind  Geothermal  Hydroelectric  Solar  Fusion? 
  • Another promising way to reduce global warming is to store carbon dioxide underground. Carbon dioxide can be pumped into depleted oil and gas reservoirs. In addition, carbon dioxide can be pumped into existing oil and gas deposits to enhance recovery. Another method is to pump carbon dioxide into deep saline formations  both offshore  and onshore. Carbon dioxide can also be used to enhance methane recovery from coal beds. 
  • In conclusion, Global warming is happening  Most of the warming is probably the result of human activities  There will be positive but mostly negative repercussions from global warming  The costs to mitigate global warming will be high – better spent elsewhere? 
  • Plenary 1 - The Science of Climate Change

    1. 1. Living with Global Warming Tolentino B. Moya, Ph D Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology College of Science, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City
    2. 2. The Earth is warming
    3. 3. Global population <ul><li>Global population 6.48 billion </li></ul><ul><li>Still grows by over 70 million a year </li></ul><ul><li>9 billion by 2050 – up to 12 billion </li></ul><ul><li>Most future growth in developing world </li></ul><ul><li>Growth variable – TFR 1.2 – 8 </li></ul><ul><li>Many low pop growth countries wealthy </li></ul><ul><li>Most high pop growth countries poor </li></ul>
    5. 7. Carbon emissions <ul><li>Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions were 64.5 million tonnes (approximately 0.3% of world total) </li></ul><ul><li>The share of CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels was </li></ul><ul><ul><li>76.6% from oil, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>17.0% from coal, and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>6.4% from natural gas in 2002 </li></ul></ul>
    6. 8. Philippine energy and environment <ul><li>Fossil fuel reserves of the country include: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>proven oil reserve of 24.2 million m 3 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>proven natural gas reserve of 3 trillion m 3 , and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>proven coal reserves of 236 million M tons </li></ul></ul>
    7. 9. Energy Consumption <ul><li>Total electricity generation capacity in the country - 51.2 billion Kwh in 2003 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>61.9% thermal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>15.8% hydro and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>22.2% geothermal </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Growth rate - 5.9% per annum between 1999 and 2003 </li></ul><ul><li>Total energy consumption was 1.18 quadrillion Btu </li></ul>
    8. 10. TEMPERATURES <ul><li>In the Philippines </li></ul>
    9. 11.
    10. 12.
    11. 13.
    12. 18. RAINFALL
    13. 19. Hydrological impacts—precipitation changes
    14. 20.
    15. 21. Philippine rainfall anomalies
    17. 25. Super typhoons caused by global warming?
    18. 26. Standardized number of TCs making landfall in South China, Vietnam and Philippines standardized anomalies standardized anomalies
    19. 27.
    20. 28.
    21. 29.
    22. 30.
    23. 31. SEA LEVEL RISE
    24. 33. Sea levels rising?
    25. 34. Philippine sea level rising?
    26. 35. Philippine sea level rising
    27. 36. Will sea levels rise further?
    28. 37. Climate change <ul><li>Rising seas </li></ul><ul><li>Half meter rise by 2100 will double number of people affected by flooding (to 100 m) </li></ul><ul><li>Coastal land and mangroves damaged </li></ul><ul><li>Severe implications for fish-stocks from a warming ocean (wind strength and ocean circulation will affect breeding and migration patterns) </li></ul>
    29. 38. Vulnerability information systems El Ni ñ o - La Ni ñ a Vulnerability Map Support for Greenhouse Gas Inventory ppt
    30. 39. Consequences of Global Warming
    31. 40. Global warming impacts Agriculture: Changes in crop yields Irrigation demands, Productivity Forests: Change in Ecologies, Geographic range of species, and Health and productivity Coastal Areas: Erosion and flooding Inundation Change in wetlands Water Resources: Changes in water supply and water quality Competition/Trans-border Issues Human Health: Weather related mortality Infectious disease Air quality - respiratory illness Industry and Energy: Changes in Energy demand Product demand & Supply
    32. 41. Water supplies <ul><li>Water sources for large cities could shrink or even dry up </li></ul><ul><li>People would have to migrate to where there is an adequate water source </li></ul><ul><li>Summer runoff from snowmelt of glaciers provides 20-50% of the total stream flow in the surrounding drainage basins. The removal of such glaciers will reduce the area exposed to summer melting thus reducing the availability of water to lowland areas </li></ul>
    33. 42. Thermal impacts -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1920 1960 2000 Year Temperature Change (°C) 1920 1960 2000 Year Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean
    34. 43. Weather extremes <ul><li>When more heat is held in the climate system, more air will move across the surface, causing higher wind speeds, more clashing warm and cold fronts, and more violent weather </li></ul><ul><li>Tornadoes, hurricanes, typhoons, and violent storms will be more intense as well as an increase in the number of these disasters </li></ul>
    35. 44. Biodiversity Impacts: Winners and Losers <ul><li>Possible effects of global warming on the geographic range of some tree species based on ecological evidence and computer models. </li></ul>
    36. 45. Impacts on wildlife <ul><li>Polar bears </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Require pack ice to live </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Might eventually go extinct </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>in the wild </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sea turtles </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Breed on the same islands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>as their births </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Could go extinct as some </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>beaches are flooded </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Other species could go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world </li></ul>
    37. 46. Food production <ul><li>800 million undernourished (hungry) with no money to buy available food </li></ul><ul><li>3 billion malnourished </li></ul><ul><li>Many countries not self-sufficient in food </li></ul><ul><li>Total calorie production has kept pace with population growth thanks to oil crops, but… </li></ul><ul><li>per capita grain production has fallen for past two decades (380 to 330 kgs/person) </li></ul>
    38. 47. Climate change <ul><li>Global warming has already cut rice harvests by 10% for every 1 degree inc in night-time temperatures </li></ul><ul><li>Rice production needs to increase 1% annually to keep pace with demand…. but </li></ul><ul><li>3.5 degree rise this century would see rice yields decline another 30% </li></ul><ul><li>Modern strains of rice may be resistant to rising temperatures (IRRI – Philippines) </li></ul>
    39. 48. Impacts on food production <ul><li>With a warmer world some regions may experience benefits in crop production, while others will be less prosperous </li></ul><ul><li>Drops of crop yields of even 10% would cause large increases in hunger and starvation and also cause economic and social turmoil </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rice yields decreases with rise in nighttime temperature </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wheat has lower protein content at high CO2 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>An increase of 1-2 degrees Celsius can cause corals to become bleached; 3-4 degrees will kill coral animals; decreasing marine productivity </li></ul>
    40. 49. Effect on Humans <ul><li>Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat </li></ul><ul><li>Decreased thermohaline circulation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic </li></ul></ul><ul><li>CO 2 fertilization effect </li></ul><ul><li>Precipitation changes </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Droughts and famine (some areas) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Warm weather means more disease (yellow fever, malaria, and others) </li></ul><ul><li>Bacteria and molds on stored foods will also increase, meaning more spoilage of foods and food poisoning </li></ul>
    41. 50. Possible Solutions to Global Warming
    42. 51. Dealing with global warming <ul><li>Climate change is such a difficult problem to deal with because: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The problem is global. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The effects will last a long time. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The problem is a long-term political issue. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The harmful and beneficial impacts of climate change are not spread evenly. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Many actions that might reduce the threat are controversial because they can impact economies and lifestyles. </li></ul></ul>
    43. 52. Cost to stabilize CO 2 concentrations 450 550 650 750 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Carbon Dioxide (ppm) Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)
    44. 53. Dealing with the threat of global warming <ul><li>A precautionary strategy should be adopted </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scientists and economists in this school of thought strongly believe that the safest course to take is informed preventative action </li></ul></ul><ul><li>To stabilize CO 2 levels, current emissions would need to be cut by 66-83% </li></ul><ul><li>Quickest and cheapest way is to use energy more efficiently </li></ul><ul><li>Many people oppose placing stringent Immigration policies for moral reasons </li></ul>
    45. 54. Mitigation of Global Warming <ul><li>Conservation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduce energy needs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recycling </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Alternate energy sources </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Biofuels </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wind </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Geothermal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hydroelectric </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar </li></ul></ul>
    46. 55. Storage of CO 2 in geological formations Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7 <ul><li>Depleted oil and gas reservoirs </li></ul><ul><li>CO 2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery </li></ul><ul><li>Deep saline formations—(a) offshore (b) onshore </li></ul><ul><li>CO 2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery </li></ul>3a 2 3b 1 4
    47. 56. Scientific consensus <ul><li>Global warming is happening </li></ul><ul><li>Most warming is probably the result of human activities </li></ul><ul><li>There will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warming </li></ul><ul><li>There will be winners and losers in global warming </li></ul><ul><li>The costs to mitigate global warming will be high – better spent elsewhere? </li></ul>
    48. 57. Scientific consensus <ul><li>Virtually all climate scientists and researchers agree that global climate is changing. </li></ul><ul><li>Virtually all climate researchers agree that human fossil fuel use plays a large role in driving climate change. </li></ul><ul><li>There is uncertainty over other possible factors that may be involved, and how they might interact with anthropogenic causes. </li></ul><ul><li>Be prepared for climate surprises. </li></ul>
    49. 58. Ongoing debate over climate change <ul><li>There is much debate over what to do about climate change. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Would costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions outweigh costs of climate change? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Should industrialized nations bear more responsibility for reducing emissions, or should all nations share equally? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Should emissions reduction occur voluntarily, or through legal, political, or economic pressure? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How should we allocate funds to reduce emissions and deal with climate change impacts? </li></ul></ul>
    50. 59. What About LDCs ? <ul><li>Some suggestions: </li></ul><ul><li>Forgive debt to LDCs </li></ul><ul><li>Fund the transfer of energy efficiency, pollution control, sustainable agriculture and reforestation technologies </li></ul><ul><li>In exchange, LDCs would “agree” to stop deforestation, slow population growth, have fairer land distribution, etc. </li></ul>
    51. 60. … A sustainable future … A sustainable future The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Alan Kay (Inventor of OS for Apple Computers) Maraming Salamat Po Magandang Araw