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Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation
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Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An Update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation

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Texas is experiencing a “perfect storm” of circumstances, which could lead the state to become the next major solar opportunity on the global stage. …

Texas is experiencing a “perfect storm” of circumstances, which could lead the state to become the next major solar opportunity on the global stage.

Attend this webinar to hear Texas energy expert and Principal Solar, Inc. board member Ron Seidel provide an overview of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) Capacity, Demand, and Reserves December 2012 Report. He will explain what is happening in the Texas electricity market today and how this effects the conclusions of his September 2012 Solutions for the Texas Energy Shortage whitepaper (click here for a free whitepaper download) and webinar (click here to view the webinar recording).

Plus, find out how to take advantage of this opportunity in YOUR business during the live Question & Answer session following Ron's presentation.

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  • 1. Principal Solar Institute "Could Texas Become The Largest Solar Opportunity in the World? An update on the ERCOT Resource Adequacy Situation " Ron Seidel Director, Principal Solar Ron Seidel is principal of RBS Energy Consulting, working with private equity, investment banks, and government on electric energy issues primarily in the ERCOT market. Previously, he was president of Texas Independent Energy, senior vice president of Energy Supply at City Public Service of San Antonio, and an executive at TXU where he was senior vice president of Fossil Generation and Mining, president of TXU Energy Trading, and operations manager at the Comanche Peak Nuclear Plant.
  • 2. The ERCOT System Source: ERCOT
  • 3. ERCOT Facts & Figures200,000 Square Miles40,530 miles of Transmission (2012)74,000 MW Peak Capacity10,034 MW of wind generation66,548 MW Peak Load (2012) – Reduction of 1,746 MW from 2011 Peak Load13.75% Target Reserve Margin2012 Peak Reserve Margin 8.9% – 2011 Peak Reserve Margin was 7.6% Source: ERCOT
  • 4. Texas Ties to Mexico and theEastern Interconnection
  • 5. ERCOT Capacity 2011 and 2012 Installed Capacity Hydro, Installed Capacity Hydro, 2011 biomass, 2012 biomass, other other 1% 1% Wind Wind Nuclear 13% Nuclear 13% 7% 6%Natural Gas Natural Gas Coal Coal 57% 56% 23% 23% 69,704 Megawatts 69,480 Megawatts Source: ERCOT
  • 6. ERCOT Energy 2011 and 2012 Energy Produced Hydro, Energy Produced Wind biomass, Wind Hydro, 2012 2011 9% 9% other biomass, other 1% Nuclear 1% Nuclear 12% 12% Natural Gas Natural Gas 40% 44% Coal Coal 39% 34%335,000 Gigawatt-hours 325,000 Gigawatt-hours Source: ERCOT
  • 7. ERCOT Reserve Margins December 2012 Report 14.0 13.2 12.0 10.9 10.5 10.0 8.5 8.4 Target =13.75% 8.0 7.1 6.0 5.0% 4.1 4.0 3.6 2.8 2.0 0.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: ERCOT
  • 8. December 2012 vs. May 2012Reserves16.0%14.0%12.0%10.0% Target =13.75% 8.0% December 2012 CDR 6.0% May 2012 CDR 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2.0%
  • 9. ERCOT Load GrowthERCOT Average Load Growth 2013 – 2022 is 2% or 1,300 MW per yearEquivalent to – One large nuclear plant each year – Two large coal plants each year – Two or three combined cycle gas plants each year Sources: ERCOT , RBS Energy Consulting
  • 10. Why is there a potential shortage?Low natural gas prices reduce financial viability for new resourcesPower prices have been capped, restricting prices in the energy only marketMarket prices do not send adequate signals to incent new capacity investmentElectricity demand growth in Texas is robust, creating the need for new capacity What is being done about it??.....
  • 11. Public Utility Commission Actions Raised the System Wide Offer Cap (SWOC) – $4500/ MWhr beginning August 2012 – $5000/ MWhr beginning June 2013 – $7000/ MWhr beginning June 2014 – $9000/ MWhr beginning June 2015 Process for recalling mothballed units (~1900MW) Emergency Response Service pilot Better pricing for ancillary services and RUC units Increased Peaker Net Margin to $300,000 or 3 X cost of new entry Source: The Brattle Group
  • 12. Public Utility CommissionConsiderationsRevise Reserve Margin target – Mandatory versus target?Wind Reliability factor – From 8.7% to 14.2% for West Texas wind – From 8.7% to 32.9% for Coastal WindCommissioner Anderson argues ERCOT has adequate reserves through 2018Operating Reserve Demand Curve – Unlikely to be implemented prior to summer 2013
  • 13. Where Do We Go From Here?PUCT Workshops / Deliberations / RulemakingsNo real issue until 2014/2015 with mothballed units in service and with normal summers2013 Legislature could still address the resource adequacy issueMy opinion: A capacity market in some form is inevitable – an energy market will require too much patience Solar power can help…….
  • 14. Renewables Competitive“…both natural gas and renewable resources are likely to be competitive across a broad range of potential future market outcomes.” -Long Term Assessment for the ERCOT Region, December 2012
  • 15. Potential Solar Capacity 2022Long Term Assessment for the ERCOT Region,December 2012
  • 16. U.S. & Texas Solar Intensity Source: NREL
  • 17. CREZ Transmission SupportsSolar
  • 18. Utility Scale PV PotentialUrban areas U.S Total: 1,218 GW 2,231,694 GWhrs 25,369 km2 Texas: 154 GW 294,684 GWhrs 3,214 km2 (<1%) Source: NREL
  • 19. Utility Scale PV PotentialRural areas U.S Total: 152,974 GW 280,613,217 GWhrs 3,186,955 km2 Texas: 20,411 GW 38,993,582 GWhrs 425,230 km2 (61%) Source: NREL
  • 20. Achievable Solar PV Energyin TexasReference: ERCOT Peak Load ~68 GWUrban PV = 154 GW (13% of U.S. Total)Rural PV = 20,000 GW (14% of U.S. Total)Achieving just 1% of this capability would produce over 200 GW or almost three times the current ERCOT maximum load. Sources: NREL, RBS Energy Consulting
  • 21. Solar Synergy with Load 70000 12000 60000 10000 ERCOT LoadSystem Load (MW) 50000 Generation (MW) 8000 40000 6000 30000 Solar Profile 4000 20000 Wind Profile 2000 10000 0 0 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Hour System Load Wind Generation Solar Generation Source: RBS Energy Consulting
  • 22. Capacity ValueThe portion of capacity that can be counted on for reliability purposesConventional resources - 100% – nuclear, coal, natural gasWind - 5% to 40% – 8.7% in ERCOT due to uncontrollability and intermittencySolar PV – 25% to 75% – Synergy with load Sources: NREL. ERCOT
  • 23. The Brattle Group Report forThe Solar Energy Industries AssociationElectricity Cost and Emissions Savings with the addition of various amounts of solar PV in 2011Solar PV CO2 Avoided Energy Cost Benefit MW (tons) ($)1000 323,000 167,900,0002500 811,000 348,400,0005000 1,612,000 520,300,000 Source: The Brattle Group
  • 24. Wind Generation Growthwith Renewable Portfolio Standards1400012000 2025 Standard100008000 2015 Standard60004000 2009 Standard2000 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Installed Planned
  • 25. Summary ERCOT needs new capacity Currently over 10,000 MW of wind is in operation Only about 74 MW of utility scale solar PV operating with none in the pipeline Texas has an enormous solar PV opportunity Solar PV has a higher capacity value than wind and is synergistic with load While solar PV will not displace wind or conventional generation completely, shouldn’t it be a significant part of the energy equation for Texas and the nation??
  • 26. Questions and Discussion Please enter your questions into the Chat window Ron Seidel Director, Principal Solar

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