0
THE KAIZEN FORUM <ul><li>DECISION </li></ul><ul><li>MAKING </li></ul>
DECISION MAKING “ A manager by profession is a decision maker; Uncertainty is his opponent, overcoming it is his mission.”...
CONCEPTS TO BE COVERED <ul><li>“ When making decisions don’t get paralysis through analysis”. </li></ul><ul><li>Limitation...
DECISION PROCESS R ecognize Problem GATHER  FACTS 1 2 3 GENERATE DECISION MONITOR DEFER DELEGATE IMPLEMENT MAKE ASSESS RES...
CONSTRAINTS OF  RATIONAL DECISION MAKING <ul><li>PROBLEM </li></ul><ul><li>Seldom consensus as to the definition of the pr...
<ul><li>EVALUATE ALTERNATIVES </li></ul><ul><li>Limited information available about each alternative.  </li></ul><ul><li>S...
ON GOING / RULES STRUCTURED EMPRICAL REQUIRES THINKING UN-STRUCTURED NOT UNIQUE MODEL OF DECISION MAKING <ul><li>Approach ...
MODELS CRISES SPEEDY ACTION INTUITIVE  RIGID  TIGHT CONTROL SHORT RANGE SINGLE COMPLETE NOT SH SHARED AIMED AT PERFECTION ...
DIFFERENCES <ul><li>WESTERN </li></ul><ul><li>Finding an answer. </li></ul><ul><li>Adhere to group think. </li></ul><ul><l...
GROUP THINK A good CEO  will try and anticipate a difficult problem requiring logical analytical decision making and set i...
EFFECTIVE GROUP DECISION MAKING Leadership 1.Avoid domination. 2.Encourage input 3.Avoid groupthink  And satisficng. 4. Re...
NEMAWASHI!  THE TOYOTA WAY Make decision slowly be consensus. Thoroughly considering all options.  Implement rapidly <ul><...
Decide and Announce Seek Individual Input, then Decide and Announce Seek Group Input, then Decide and Announce Group Conse...
<ul><li>2. Considering   Alternative Solution </li></ul><ul><li>Follow set based Approach </li></ul><ul><li>Different peop...
EXAMPLE OF AN A3 REPORT CURRENT SITUATAION PROPOSAL LABOR COST & TIME ANALYSIS TIME SAVINGS PLAN IMPLEMENTATION CONTROLS T...
DECISION STYLES High Low Tolerance  for  Ambiguity Rational Intuitive Way of Thinking Careful decision makers Adapt to new...
HOW TO IMPROVE YOUR DECISION MAKING <ul><li>ANALYSE THE SITUATION </li></ul><ul><li>SHOW FLEXIILITY TO INCREASE ACCEPTABIL...
WHY DECISIONS FAIL <ul><li>VULNERABILITY OF GROUP-THINK </li></ul><ul><li>ESCALATION OF COMMITMENT </li></ul><ul><li>LEVEL...
GUIDE LINES FOR DECISION MAKING 1 . MARSHAL THE FACTS 2. CONSULT YOUR FEELING 3. USE WISE TIMINGS 4. DON’T INFER TOO MUCH ...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Decision Making

12,171

Published on

Decision Making remains one enigma for managers. Although no prescription can be offered for mastering this technique yet these fillers will certainly improve your skill

Published in: Business
2 Comments
8 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • nice ppt
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • I agree with the presentation on the crucial topic of Decision Making, this is often the silent killer of an organization if its quality is not monitored and upheld. At the same time it can be the lifeblood of an organization, propelling the company to higher ground - if it is developed, monitored and managed properly.

    Lalith Moorjani, Piscataway. New Jersey
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
No Downloads
Views
Total Views
12,171
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1,738
Comments
2
Likes
8
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "Decision Making"

  1. 1. THE KAIZEN FORUM <ul><li>DECISION </li></ul><ul><li>MAKING </li></ul>
  2. 2. DECISION MAKING “ A manager by profession is a decision maker; Uncertainty is his opponent, overcoming it is his mission.” “ A decision is a judgement. It is a choice between alternatives. It is rarely a choice between right and wrong. It is at best a choice between “almost right” and “probably wrong”. “ DRUCKER”
  3. 3. CONCEPTS TO BE COVERED <ul><li>“ When making decisions don’t get paralysis through analysis”. </li></ul><ul><li>Limitations of rational decision making model </li></ul><ul><li>Models of decision making. </li></ul><ul><li>Individual vs Group decision making.. </li></ul><ul><li>Your individual decision making style? </li></ul><ul><li>Why decision fails? </li></ul><ul><li>Guidelines for decision making. </li></ul>
  4. 4. DECISION PROCESS R ecognize Problem GATHER FACTS 1 2 3 GENERATE DECISION MONITOR DEFER DELEGATE IMPLEMENT MAKE ASSESS RESULT MATCH
  5. 5. CONSTRAINTS OF RATIONAL DECISION MAKING <ul><li>PROBLEM </li></ul><ul><li>Seldom consensus as to the definition of the problem. </li></ul><ul><li>Differentiate fact from opinion. </li></ul><ul><li>Identify what standard is violated. </li></ul><ul><li>2. GENERATE ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION </li></ul><ul><li>The first acceptable solution is usually accepted. </li></ul><ul><li>Alternatives are based on what was successful in the past. </li></ul><ul><li>Specify alternatives that are consistent with goals </li></ul>“ I never sit on a fence.Iam either on one side or another” Harry Truman
  6. 6. <ul><li>EVALUATE ALTERNATIVES </li></ul><ul><li>Limited information available about each alternative. </li></ul><ul><li>Satisfactory solutions, not optimal ones, are usually accepted. </li></ul><ul><li>Do not evaluate main effects and side effects. </li></ul>CONSTRAINTS OF RATIONAL DECISION MAKING <ul><li>4. IMPLEMENT AND FOLLOW UP </li></ul><ul><li>Resistance to change is a universal phenomenon. </li></ul><ul><li>Not always clear what part of the solution should be monitored or measured in follow-up. </li></ul>
  7. 7. ON GOING / RULES STRUCTURED EMPRICAL REQUIRES THINKING UN-STRUCTURED NOT UNIQUE MODEL OF DECISION MAKING <ul><li>Approach </li></ul><ul><li>Type </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Probability of risk </li></ul><ul><li>Alternatives available </li></ul><ul><li>Goals </li></ul>Rational/Objective Prescriptive (Idealized situation) Complete Low Many Defined Satisficing Approach Descriptive (Reality Based) Fragmentary High Only a few Broad Spectrum
  8. 8. MODELS CRISES SPEEDY ACTION INTUITIVE RIGID TIGHT CONTROL SHORT RANGE SINGLE COMPLETE NOT SH SHARED AIMED AT PERFECTION DEFINED GOALS ANALYTICAL SNAP MIN MAX PARTICIPATIVE ADAPTIVE CHANGEABLE EXPLOITIVE SHIFT FOCUS FLEX MULTIPILE CONTINGENCY CREATIVE COOPERATIVE BROAD GOALS TEAM WORK “ The ideal number for a hard decision-making meeting is two--- with one on holiday !” INFORMATION CONCLUSION
  9. 9. DIFFERENCES <ul><li>WESTERN </li></ul><ul><li>Finding an answer. </li></ul><ul><li>Adhere to group think. </li></ul><ul><li>Struggle for the right answer. </li></ul><ul><li>Have to sell decision. </li></ul><ul><li>Always in a hurry to decide quickly. </li></ul><ul><li>Plans run into problem. </li></ul><ul><li>JAPANESE </li></ul><ul><li>Defining the question. </li></ul><ul><li>Consensus – encourage dissenting opinions. </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on alternatives </li></ul><ul><li>Process delegates authority. </li></ul><ul><li>Take longer time to decide. </li></ul><ul><li>Execute with speed </li></ul>
  10. 10. GROUP THINK A good CEO will try and anticipate a difficult problem requiring logical analytical decision making and set in motion the machinery for providing necessary information .” <ul><li>CONDITIONS </li></ul><ul><li>Highly cohesive group </li></ul><ul><li>Under pressure to make decision </li></ul><ul><li>2. SYMPTOMS </li></ul><ul><li>Not being critical of each other’s ideas. </li></ul><ul><li>Selective in gathering information. </li></ul><ul><li>Believe in group morale. </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of accountability. </li></ul>FAULTY DECISION MAKING STYLE WHICH DESIRES UNANIMITY AT THE EXPENSE OF QUALITY DECISION
  11. 11. EFFECTIVE GROUP DECISION MAKING Leadership 1.Avoid domination. 2.Encourage input 3.Avoid groupthink And satisficng. 4. Remember goals. Constructive conflict 1. Air legitimate difference 2.Stay task-related. 3.Be impersonal. 4.Play devil’s advocate. Effective group Decision making Creativity 1.Brainstorm 2. Avoid criticizing 3. Exhaust ideas. 4. Combine ideas
  12. 12. NEMAWASHI! THE TOYOTA WAY Make decision slowly be consensus. Thoroughly considering all options. Implement rapidly <ul><li>Thorough Consideration </li></ul><ul><li>Quality of decision </li></ul><ul><li>Asking why? 5 times </li></ul><ul><li>Building Consensus </li></ul><ul><li>Deming Cycle (PDCA ) </li></ul>Contd
  13. 13. Decide and Announce Seek Individual Input, then Decide and Announce Seek Group Input, then Decide and Announce Group Consensus, Management Approval Group Consensus, with full authority Time Level of involvement Preferred Fallback Fallback (if consensus not achieved) ALTERNATIVE TOYOTA DECISION MAKING METHODS
  14. 14. <ul><li>2. Considering Alternative Solution </li></ul><ul><li>Follow set based Approach </li></ul><ul><li>Different people-different set of alternatives </li></ul><ul><li>Turn conflict into win / win situation </li></ul><ul><li>3. Presenting Decision on one page </li></ul><ul><li>Proposal discussed with all </li></ul><ul><li>Agreement befor presentation </li></ul><ul><li>One page – formal decision only formality </li></ul>NEMAWASHI! THE TOYOTA WAY
  15. 15. EXAMPLE OF AN A3 REPORT CURRENT SITUATAION PROPOSAL LABOR COST & TIME ANALYSIS TIME SAVINGS PLAN IMPLEMENTATION CONTROLS TIME LINE
  16. 16. DECISION STYLES High Low Tolerance for Ambiguity Rational Intuitive Way of Thinking Careful decision makers Adapt to new situation Efficient,logical use less information, few alternative make decision fast focus on short-term Broad outlook examine more alternative long range find creative solution Work well with others Receptive to suggestions Avoid conflicts Source: Rowe McGrath Modules in Decision Making, 1984 Behavioral Conceptual Directive Analytical
  17. 17. HOW TO IMPROVE YOUR DECISION MAKING <ul><li>ANALYSE THE SITUATION </li></ul><ul><li>SHOW FLEXIILITY TO INCREASE ACCEPTABILITY </li></ul><ul><li>BEWARE OF PERSONAL BIASES </li></ul><ul><li>DON’T BE AFRAID TO IMPOSE YOUR INTUITION ON TOP OF RATIONAL ANALYSIS </li></ul><ul><li>ADAPT TO JOB REQUIREMENT </li></ul><ul><li>APPLY ETHICAL DECISION GUIDES </li></ul><ul><li>LATERAL THINKING </li></ul>SECOND thoughts are invariably wiser. ---Euripides (480-405 B.C)
  18. 18. WHY DECISIONS FAIL <ul><li>VULNERABILITY OF GROUP-THINK </li></ul><ul><li>ESCALATION OF COMMITMENT </li></ul><ul><li>LEVEL OF MORAL DEVELOPMENT </li></ul><ul><li>CONCEPTUAL BLOCK </li></ul>PEOPLE who stay in the middle of the road get run over. --- Aneurin Bevan (1897-1960)
  19. 19. GUIDE LINES FOR DECISION MAKING 1 . MARSHAL THE FACTS 2. CONSULT YOUR FEELING 3. USE WISE TIMINGS 4. DON’T INFER TOO MUCH 5. KEEP THE DECISION FLEXIBLE 6. FOLLOW THROUGH 7. HAVE COURAGE 8. DECISIONS TO SAVE SKIN, BEWARE OF! “ The responsibility is always mine but the decision lies with who ever is on the spot”.
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×