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Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles 2012-2022

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In a huge change in mix in the electric vehicle market and therefore the electric motor market, those small EV motors become a mere 25% of the electric vehicle motor market value in 2022 as the big …

In a huge change in mix in the electric vehicle market and therefore the electric motor market, those small EV motors become a mere 25% of the electric vehicle motor market value in 2022 as the big vehicles, and therefore big motors, become very successful.

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  • 1. Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles 2012-2022Published: October 2011No. of Pages: 273Price: $ 3995Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles 2012-2022. Today, the motors that propel electricvehicles on land, through water and in the air are mainly brushless because brushedcommutator motors are on the way out. Most of the number and the value of thosebrushless traction motors lies in permanent magnet synchronous ones, notably BrushlessDC "BLDC", a form with trapezoidal waveform, and Permanent Magnet AC "PMAC", a typewith a sinusoidal waveform. No matter: they both have excellent performance includingsimple provision of reverse and regenerative braking. However, that dominance is about tochange. The main reason is not those well publicised but elusive in-wheel motors coming inat two to six per vehicle but simply the move to much larger vehicles and therefore motors.Small vehicles todayAt present, half of the money spent on traction motors for electric vehicles concerns verysmall vehicles such as mobility scooters and power chairs for the disabled that are sopopular in Europe and the USA, mobile robots in the home in Japan and "walkies" meaningpedestrian- operated golf caddies very popular in Japan, stair walkers, motorised lifters, seascooters that pull the scuba diver and, of course, those hugely popular two wheelers inChina with 34 million e-bikes alone sold worldwide in 2011. Add tiny quad bikes, All TerrainVehicles ATVs, go-karts and golf cars and their derivatives. 92% of electric vehicle tractionmotors are currently needed for those small vehicles and they are therefore soldsubstantially on price.Big vehicles tomorrowIn a huge change in mix in the electric vehicle market and therefore the electric motormarket, those small EV motors become a mere 25% of the electric vehicle motormarket value in 2022 as the big vehicles, and therefore big motors, become very successful.For example, the value of the market for military electric vehicles increases over 20 timesas military forces buy battlefield hybrids rather than just small pure electric runabouts. Thebus market value rockets nearly seven times as China, in particular, buys huge numbers oflarge hybrid versions as part of its national transportation plan. Better reported is theburgeoning electric car market where hybrid versions in particular are behind a nearly sixfold growth in market value over the coming decade. All this turns the world of tractionmotors on its head.
  • 2. Different motors neededThe electric motors that are required for the bulk of the market by value are becomingmuch higher in power and torque. For example, an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle AUV -like a torpedo but making its own decisions - can push 400 kW, a large forklift or busdelivers 250-350 kW per motor but cars typically need up to 70kW per motor with a low-cost electric bicycle merely offering a 0.25 kW motor. At the large end, torque from thetraction motor is up to 6000 Nm yet only 0.2 to 0.5 Nm is needed by many two wheelersand mobility vehicles for the disabled. The heavy end is territory where the asynchronousmotor is winning now that its performance has improved and the cost of the controlelectronics has been got under control. For example, the Heavy Industrial category refers toheavy lifting as with forklifts and mobile cranes and here IDTechEx finds that 89% fitasynchronous motors otherwise known as AC induction - brushless traction motors with nopermanent magnets. Around 63% of military vehicles and 52% of large buses fitasynchronous motors on our analysis of 212 electric vehicles, past, present and planned.Toyota, world leader in electric vehicles by a big margin, is using asynchronous motors forits forklifts and buses and has now developed them for possible use on its cars, whichcurrently use permanent magnet motors.Caution neededNonetheless, we must be very careful about sweeping generalisations. Many experts believethat asynchronous motors will sweep the board at 5kW power upwards. That is tantamountto saying that they will take over 70% of the traction motor market value because there areeven 5kW motors in golf cars and the smallest leisure boats. Although the enthusiasts canpoint to such motors used today in golf cars variants as one example, it is important toobserve the very rapid improvements in synchronous motors including taming the noise andvibration of the switched reluctance synchronous motors that need no expensive magnets.IDTechEx does not accept the conflict as one primarily between those using expensiveneodymium magnets and those with allegedly lower inherent costs. In the larger electricvehicles performance matters more than cost and anyway, asynchronous motors use a lotof expensive copper and control circuitry.Performance matters moreThe winners in future traction motor markets will win on performance more than price, thisincluding very different criteria in different vehicles with many problems still to solve. Forexample, Boeing has a contract to develop an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle UAV that can stayaloft for five years. It has subcontracted Newcastle University in the UK to create a tractionmotor with several times improvement in power- to-weight ratio in order to make thispossible. NASAs dream of small aircraft taking off purely under the power from in-wheelmotors may call for new motor designs as will the thunderbolt of power from regenerative
  • 3. braking of landing airliners that then become electric vehicles while on the ground. Faulttolerant motors are needed in other applications and while Chorus Motors has developed anasynchronous one, Protean Electric has announced an equally impressive synchronous one.Reducing or eliminating the need for water cooling is a welcome advance as yet rarely onoffer with large motors. Working at the more efficient high voltages of 300-700V means lesscopper, thinner, more manageable wiring and less power wastage. Not all motors meetthese requirements.In-wheel motors not as portrayedWe fear that only 2.5% of electric vehicles by land, water and air will have multiple tractionmotors in 2022 and that may mean only 5.6% of traction motors sold will be for multi-motor vehicles - mainly in-wheel motors for land vehicles. That is big enough for two orthree suppliers to make enduringly profitable, substantial businesses out of supplying thembut it is not a primary route to leadership in the overall traction motor business. Of course,in-wheel motors for single motor vehicles, notably two wheelers will be separate from thatand even more successful than they are today, maybe over 100 million of these being sold -largely on price - in 2022.While there are a few asynchronous in-wheel motors, nearly all of the sales of in-wheelmotors concern the usually smaller synchronous versions, so let us now look more closely atthe glamorous world of in-wheel motors, already a huge success in e-bikes, selling by thetens of millions. Here a warning comes for Mitsubishi deciding not to use its in-wheel motorsin its best-selling MiEV pure electric car because of cost. Currently you cannot have severalmotors for the price of one when you want to adopt in-wheel power. While motormanufacturers hope that a price premium will be on offer where they eliminate transmissionand differential, there are problems of ride to finance and concerns at Fiat, for example,about wheels jamming.Wake up timeIt is wakeup time for the electric vehicle traction motor industry. Our survey of 123manufacturers shows far too few making asynchronous or switched reluctance synchronousmotors and larger, high power, motors with strong traction or even exceptionally lightweight powerful motors. There are far too many making traction motors with brushes. Inshort, this is an industry structured for the past that is going to have a very nasty surprisewhen the future comes. Most of it is not even talking to the vehicle manufacturers that willspend most to buy traction motors in the years to come. Many think easy money comesfrom pursuing the obvious, notably selling to the fearsomely competitive electric car marketwhere 90% of your customers are headed for insolvency. In China alone, there are over 100manufacturers of electric cars and none are successful.Table of Contents
  • 4. 1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS1.1.Traction motor forecasts of numbers1.2.Global value market for vehicle traction motors1.3.Definition and background1.4.Shape of motors1.5.Location of motors1.6.Unique major new survey2.INTRODUCTION2.1.History of electric traction motors2.2.Types of motor favoured in electric vehicles2.2.1.Types of traction motor in summary2.2.2.Asynchronous traction motors2.2.3.Size and number of motors2.2.4.Shapes of motor2.2.5.Synchronous traction motors2.2.6.Axial flux vs radial flux motors2.3.Sophisticated motors bridging gaps in performance2.3.1.Advanced asynchronous motor variant - Chorus Motors2.3.2.Advanced synchronous PM motor - Protean Electric2.3.3.Motor position2.3.4.The relative merits of the motor positions in electric bicycles and e-bikes2.3.5.Fraunhofer IFAM2.4.Remaining challenges2.4.1.In-wheel hybrids2.4.2.Electric corner modules (ECMs)2.4.3.SIM Drive in wheel traction2.4.4.In wheel motors for aircraft2.4.5.Move to high voltage2.4.6.Environmental challenges2.4.7.Many options and many needs2.4.8.Lack of standards3.ANALYSIS OF 123 TRACTION MOTOR MANUFACTURERS4.212 ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND THEIR MOTORS5.INTERVIEWS AND NEWLY REPORTED OPINION ON MOTOR TRENDS5.1.Asynchronous vs Synchronous5.2.Axial vs radial flux5.3.Who will succeed with electric microcars5.4.Extending the market5.5.Barefoot motor ATV motor in place6.MARKET FORECASTS6.1.Traction motor forecasts of numbers6.2.Global value market for vehicle traction motors6.3.Definition and background6.4.Shape of motors6.5.Location of motors6.6.Unique major new surveyAPPENDIX 1: GLOSSARYAPPENDIX 2: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCYList Of Tables
  • 5. 1.1.Number of traction motors in electric vehicles worldwide 2011-2022 in thousands1.2.Vehicle numbers (thousand) 2011-20221.3.Number of traction motors in multi-motor vehicles 2011-2022 and percentage of allvehicle traction motors rounded1.4.Proportion of electric vehicles with more than one motor 2011-20221.5.Number of electric vehicles with more than one electric motor 2011-2022 in thousandsand percentage of all electric vehicles rounded1.6.Average number of motors per multi-motor vehicle 2011-20211.7.Proportion of electric vehicles with one motor 2011-20221.8.Number of electric vehicles with one electric motor ie number of motors in single-motor vehicles in thousands1.9.Price of traction motor(s) to vehicle manufacturer in $K per vehicle1.10.Motor market value $K paid by vehicle manufacturer 2011-20221.11.Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles1.12.Advantages vs disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction motors fortodays vehicles1.13.Most likely winners and losers in the next decade1.14.Supplier numbers listed by continent1.15.Traction motor supplier numbers listed by country in alphabetical order1.16.Applications targeted by our sample of motor suppliers vs market split, listed in orderof 2012 market size1.17.Suppliers of vehicle traction motors - split between number offering asynchronous,synchronous and both, where identified1.18.Suppliers offering brushed, brushless and both types of synchronous motors, whereidentified1.19.Distribution of vehicle sample by applicational sector1.20.Vehicles with asynchronous, synchronous or both options by category in number andpercentage of category, listed in order of declining asynchronous percentage1.21.212 electric vehicle models analysed by category for % asynchronous, power andtorque of their electric traction motors and where intensive or rough use is most typicallyencountered. The rated power and traction data are enhanced1.22.Percentage of old and abandoned models in the survey that use asynchronous orsynchronous motors1.23.Number of vehicles surveyed that have a mention of using brushed DC synchronousmotors, by type of vehicle1.24.Other motor features declared by vehicle manufacturers1.25.Number of cars sampled that had one, two, three or four traction electric motors1.26.Ex factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, byapplicational sector, rounded2.1.2000 year history of electric traction motors and allied technologies2.2.The main choices of electric vehicle traction motor technology over the next decade.2.3.A comparison of potential and actual electric traction motor technologies2.4.Comparison of outer‐rotor and inner‐rotor motors2.5.Relative merits of the motor positions in electric bicycles and e-bikes2.6.Extracts from some Azure Dynamics traction motor specifications2.7.Extracts from some ABB traction motor specifications in imperial units3.1.123 vehicle traction motor manufacturers by name, country,asynchronous/synchronous, targeted vehicle types, claims and images3.2.Supplier numbers listed by continent
  • 6. 3.3.Supplier numbers listed by country3.4.Targetted applications vs market split.3.5.Suppliers of vehicle traction motors - split between number offering asynchronous,synchronous and both, where identified.3.6.Suppliers offering brushed, brushless and both types of synchronous motors, whereidentified.3.7.Examples of train traction motor suppliers4.1.212 electric vehicle manufacturers, vehicle examples, asynchronous or synchronousmotor used, motor details where given, motor manufacturer and number of motors pervehicle.4.2.Market value split over the next decade between different vehicle categories4.3.Vehicles with asynchronous, synchronous or both options by category in number andpercentage of category, listed in order of declining asynchronous percentage.4.4.212 electric vehicle models analysed by category4.5.Percentage of old and abandoned models in the survey that use asynchronous orsynchronous motors4.6.Number of vehicles surveyed that have a mention of using DC synchronous motors, bytype of vehicle4.7.Number of cars sampled that had one, two, three or four traction electric motors4.8.Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles.4.9.Most mentioned motor suppliers6.1.Number of traction motors in electric vehicles worldwide 2011-2022 in thousands6.2.Vehicle numbers (thousand) 2011-20226.3.Number of traction motors in multi-motor vehicles 2011-2022 and percentage of allvehicle traction motors rounded6.4.Proportion of electric vehicles with more than one motor 2011-20226.5.Number of electric vehicles with more than one electric motor 2011-2022 in thousandsand percentage of all electric vehicles rounded6.6.Average number of motors per multi-motor vehicle 2011-20216.7.Proportion of electric vehicles with one motor 2011-20226.8.Number of electric vehicles with one electric motor ie number of motors in single-motor vehicles in thousands6.9.Price of traction motor(s) to vehicle manufacturer in $K per vehicle6.10.Motor market value $K paid by vehicle manufacturer 2011-20226.11.Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles6.12.Advantages vs disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction motors fortodays vehicles6.13.Most likely winners and losers in the next decade6.14.Supplier numbers listed by continent6.15.Traction motor supplier numbers listed by country in alphabetical order6.16.Applications targeted by our sample of motor suppliers vs market split, listed in orderof 2012 market size6.17.Suppliers of vehicle traction motors - split between number offering asynchronous,synchronous and both, where identified6.18.Suppliers offering brushed, brushless and both types of synchronous motors, whereidentified6.19.Distribution of vehicle sample by applicational sector6.20.Vehicles with asynchronous, synchronous or both options by category in number andpercentage of category, listed in order of declining asynchronous percentage6.21.212 electric vehicle models analysed by category for % asynchronous, power and
  • 7. torque of their electric traction motors and where intensive or rough use is most typicallyencountered. The rated power and traction data are enhanced6.22.Percentage of old and abandoned models in the survey that use asynchronous orsynchronous motors6.23.Number of vehicles surveyed that have a mention of using brushed DC synchronousmotors, by type of vehicle6.24.Other motor features declared by vehicle manufacturers6.25.Number of cars sampled that had one, two, three or four traction electric motors6.26.Ex factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, byapplicational sector, roundedList Of Figures1.1.Number of traction motors in electric vehicles worldwide 2011-2022 in thousands1.2.Motor market value $K paid by vehicle manufacturer 2011-20221.3.Location of motors sold in 2022 in vehicles in which they are fitted, in millions ofmotors and percent of all motors with all figures rounded. Figures in red refer to highpriced motors and figures in green refer to low priced mo1.4.Supplier numbers listed by continent1.5.Traction motor supplier numbers listed by country1.6.Targeted applications on top vs market value split in 2012 centre and 2022 on bottom1.7.Suppliers of vehicle traction motors - split between number offering asynchronous,synchronous and both, where identified1.8.Number of vehicles surveyed that have a mention of using brushed DC synchronousmotors, by type of vehicle1.9.Number of cars sampled that had one, two, three or four traction electric motors1.10.Ex factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, byapplicational sector, rounded1.11.Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, byapplicational sector, rounded and percentage spent on their traction motors1.12.Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, byapplicational sector, rounded2.1.Cri Cri motors2.2.Multiple electric motors on a NASA solar powered, unmanned aircraft for the upperatmosphere2.3.Drop in electric motor for manual car conversion using direct drive.2.4.Bicycle hub motor rotor left and stator right.2.5.Axial flux in-wheel motor driving a bicycle and a propeller.2.6.60/15 kW Chorus Meshcon motor2.7.Protean in-wheel motor for on-road vehicles2.8.Innovative electric bicycle motor2.9.A motorcycle with off-center motor near hub.2.10.Mitsubishi in-wheel applications2.11.Construction of an in-wheel motor2.12.Mitsubishi in-wheel motor2.13.Lohner-Porsche electric vehicle of 18982.14.Volvo ReCharge concept hybrid2.15.Fraunhofer in-wheel motor on an Artega GT2.16.Mine resistant ambush protected - All Terrain Vehicle MATV2.17.MATV structure
  • 8. 2.18.SIM Drive in-wheel traction2.19.EMRAX 222 Duplex Motor2.20.Traction battery pack nominal energy storage vs battery pack voltage for mildhybrids in red, plug in hybrids in blue and pure electric cars in green2.21.Thruster for Deepflight personal submarine2.22.Propulsion systems of a swimmer AUV2.23.CERV2.24.CERV motor integration4.1.Other motor features declared by vehicle manufacturers.6.1.Number of traction motors in electric vehicles worldwide 2011-2022 in thousands6.2.Motor market value $K paid by vehicle manufacturer 2011-20226.3.Location of motors sold in 2022 in vehicles in which they are fitted, in millions ofmotors and percent of all motors with all figures rounded. Figures in red refer to highpriced motors and figures in green refer to low priced mo6.4.Supplier numbers listed by continent6.5.Traction motor supplier numbers listed by country6.6.Targeted applications on top vs market value split in 2012 centre and 2022 on bottom6.7.Suppliers of vehicle traction motors - split between number offering asynchronous,synchronous and both, where identified6.8.Number of vehicles surveyed that have a mention of using brushed DC synchronousmotors, by type of vehicle6.9.Number of cars sampled that had one, two, three or four traction electric motors6.10.Ex factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, byapplicational sector, rounded6.11.Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, byapplicational sector, rounded and percentage spent on their traction motors6.12.Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, byapplicational sector, roundedAbout Us:ReportsnReports is an online library of over 100,000+ market research reports and in-depthmarket research studies & analysis of over 5000 micro markets. We provide 24/7 online andoffline support to our customers. Get in touch with us for your needs of market researchreports.Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/marketsreportsOur Facebook Page: http://www.facebook.com/pages/ReportsnReports/191441427571689Contact:Mr.Priyank7557 Rambler road,Suite727,Dallas,TX75231Tel: + 1 888 391 5441E-mail: sales@reportsandreports.comhttp://www.reportsnreports.com
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