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MR PrePoll Survey Bihar

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  • 1. Market Research Assignment Group Members: Akshay Amber(04) Amritesh(05) Kumar Abhishek(36) Madhu Vinita(40) Prasun Chandra(57) Rajnish Jha(65) Saurav Singh(78) Vasundhra Keshav Bashishta Kumar PRE POLL SURVEY(BIHAR)-2014 Submitted to: Prof. Aditya K.V.
  • 2. Introduction • Bihar is the second most populous states in India and has a pivotal role in the formation of central government. • Democracy in India is becoming stronger. • Although it is gradually taking of  Castism  Communalism  Regionalism
  • 3. Continue.. • Are playing its own role in the formation of the government. • It is also being envisaged from the stand point of federalism character of the country. • The public opinion are being guided by the motives of decentralization of power
  • 4. Present political scenario of Bihar capital Patna Largest cities Patna, Bhagalpur, Gaya, Muzaffarpur, Purnea Districts 38 total Government • Body Government of India, Government of Bihar • Governor D. Y. Patil • Chief Minister Nitish Kumar (JDU) • Legislature Bicameral (243 + 75 seats) • Parliamentary constituency 40 • High Court Patna High Court
  • 5. Introduction about Bihar in Politics • Currently, there are four main political formations.  Bharatiya Janata Party  Rashtriya Janata Dal  The Indian National Congress.  Janata Dal (United)
  • 6. Political Parties in Bihar • Bharatiya Janata Party • Communist Party of India • Communist Party of India (Marxist) • National Congress • Janata Dal (United) • Nationalist Congress Party • Rashtriya Janata Dal • Samajwadi Party
  • 7. Regional Parties • Bharatiya Jan Congress • Bihar People's Party • Bihar Vikas Party • KisanVikas Party • KrantikariSamyavadi Party • RashtrawadiKisanSanghatan • Rashtriya Janata Dal (Democratic) • SamajwadiKrantikariSena
  • 8. Research objective • To know the political scenario of Bihar in upcoming parliamentary election 2014. • To what extent casteism affects politics. • To know the opinion of different age group people in electing national leadership. • To know the regional popularity of political parties in Bihar. • To know the political stability of coalition government vis-à- vis unilateral government. • To know the stand point of public on alliance issues.
  • 9. Administration and Governments • The constitutional head of the Government of Bihar is the Governor. • Who is appointed by the President of India. • The real executive power rests with the Chief Minister and the cabinet. • The political party or the coalition of political parties having a majority in the Legislative Assembly forms the Government
  • 10. Lok Sabha constituencies in Bihar • Araria · Arrah · Aurangabad · Banka · Begusarai · Bhagalpur · Buxar ·Darbhanga · Gaya · Gopalganj • Hajipur · Jahanabad · Jamui ·Jhanjharpur · Karakat · Katiha r ·Khagaria · Kishanganj · Madhepura ·Madhubani · Mahara jganj · • Munger ·Muzaffarpur · Nalanda · Nawada ·PaschimChamp aran · Pataliputra ·Patna Sahib · Purnia · • PurviChamparan · Samastipur · Saran · Sasaram ·Sheohar · Sitamarhi · Siwan · Supaul · Ujiarpur · Vaishali · Valmiki Nagar
  • 11. Research Design • On the basis of current scenario not based on futuristic assumptions. • Conclusive research design. • Sample size. • Questionnaire design. • Findings through Excel. • Interpretations through SPSS. • Conclusion
  • 12. Data Collection (Method) • Telephonic Interview • Google doc Survey • On site survey (for illiterate people)
  • 13. Sample • Taken a sample size of 456 through simple random sampling. Male: 307 Female : 149 • Sample was taken keeping in mind that maximum Lok sabha constituencies have been covered under this survey. • Sample covered all sort of data fields including different age group, caste, religion & region.
  • 14. Age? Question regarding age asked because:  Which party is most preferred by the selected age group?  Age groups were: -18-30(youths) -31-45(working) -56-60(matured) ->60(experienced) Caste? Question regarding caste was asked because:  Caste based politics play a significant in winning of party. Questionnaire design
  • 15. Q.1 Are you satisfied with the performance of UPA II ? By this question we want to get the following information:  Satisfaction level of People from UPA II.  Reliability and trust in the alliance. Q.2 Who would you like to see as India's next PM ? By this we tried to fetch information like:  Are they satisfied with current central government.  What are their vision for next election?  Is personality of the politicians playing a vital role in Lok sabha election 2014
  • 16. Q.3 After the NDA (BJP-JD(u)) breakup in Bihar which party do you think will get maximum benefit ? Reasons behind asking this question are:  Which party will have maximum benefit in the next election?  Consequences of the break-up on the career of BJP & JD(U) Q.4 Did Nitish Kumar did the right thing to break the alliance with NDA ? The given question was asked in order to know: The opinion of people regarding this breakup. Whether they think it will hamper the BJP’s image in the upcoming election?
  • 17. Q.5 According to you which party will get maximum seats in Bihar Parliamentary elections 2014 ? By this we tried to fetch information like:  Which party will be most supported by people of Bihar?  Faith and image of party leaders among the voters.  Whether they want the current government to continue in the next 5 years? Comment for upcoming Parliamentary elections 2014 ? The given question was asked in order to know:  Suggestions of the voters regarding upcoming elections 2014  Their vision regarding the next government
  • 18. Findings from research Male
  • 19. Findings from research Female
  • 20. Findings from research Age(18-30)
  • 21. Findings from research Age(31-45)
  • 22. Findings from research Age(46-60)
  • 23. Findings from research Age(60+)
  • 24. Findings from research General
  • 25. Findings from research OBC
  • 26. Findings from research SC/ST
  • 27. Findings from research Hindu
  • 28. Findings from research Muslim
  • 29. Interpretations (Gender & Age Group) • For interpretations we are using SPSS tool. • There is no relation between gender & any variable. • Significance level in all the cases are greater than .005, which tells that null hypothesis is accepted.
  • 30. Interpretations (Gender )
  • 31. Interpretations (Age)
  • 32. Interpretations (Caste & Religion) • For interpretations we are using SPSS tool. • There is a relationship between Q.3, Q.5 & castes. • For religions there is a relation between Q.2 & religion. • Significance level in other cases are greater than .005, which tells that null hypothesis is accepted.
  • 33. Interpretations (Caste )
  • 34. Interpretations (Religion)
  • 35. Interpretations (Factor Analysis) • For interpretations we are using SPSS tool. • For all the factors that is our Q.1, Q.2, Q.3, Q.4, Q.5 correlation matrix is provided which tells about the strength of their correlations. • KMO tests have shown that the values are .619 which is good because correlations between pair of variables can be explained by other variables.
  • 36. Interpretations (Factor Analysis) • Bartlett's test of Sphericity is used to test the hypothesis that the correlation matrix is an identity matrix. • We are looking for significance les than .05 because we want the variables to be correlated. • For our SPSS analysis it is less than .05 which confirms that the variables are strongly correlated.
  • 37. Interpretations (Factor Analysis)
  • 38. Conclusions • We have done many other analysis like Chi square. But we have not found its relevance in our report. • Factor analysis gives the adequacy of samples. • Correlation say that except few variables there is no relationship between the variables and factors like age group, gender, caste and religion. • After seeing the pie charts and the no correlation exists between the variables and factors we can say only one thing that in Bihar, in this election the voting will be not going to happen according to caste, religion, Age groups and Gender.
  • 39. Conclusions • Different age groups (18-30, 31-45, 46-60, more than 60), Genders i.e. male and female, Religion (Hindu and Muslim) and Caste (SC/ST, General and OBC) they are claiming to change the central government . • They want Narendra Modi as the PM of India. • It is true that they are not happy with the decision of Nitish Kumar to break the alliance and they are aware of the fact that it can hamper BJP but not at that extent. And because of the split of NDA in Bihar RJD and congress may gain some more seats this time. But still they will not become the majority party in Bihar.
  • 40. Conclusions • We as a group find that in Bihar, there will be a tough contest between BJP and JD(U). But one man can steal the whole show and this person is Narendra Modi. • In Bihar NAMO factor can give an edge to BJP over JD(U) according our report. • Public is not accepting Nitish Kumar’s decision of breaking the NDA alliance as a wise one. • One more thing our finding reveals that this election in Bihar is not going to be caste based which can set a trend for Bihar Politics.