iPad: One Year Later
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iPad: One Year Later

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A presentation given at Web 2.0 Expo 2011 in San Francisco, CA, on March 30, 2011....

A presentation given at Web 2.0 Expo 2011 in San Francisco, CA, on March 30, 2011.

A year has passed since the release of Apple’s iPad, and with it, new opportunities for developers, content publishers, and entrepreneurs, have clearly emerged. We now have a proven market for a third type of mobile, Internet-enabled device – more intimate than a laptop and more expansive than a smartphone. In a follow-up to his 2010 Web 2.0 Expo talk, “iPad: Mobile Computing Redefined,” Raven looks back on the first year of the iPad – its successes and failings, as well as a look forward to Apple’s new hardware and software technologies and their inevitable impact on the market. 2011 will be an even bigger year for the consumer tablet sector, with additional hardware players, continued app and services innovation, and a more mainstream, global market for these devices.

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iPad: One Year Later iPad: One Year Later Presentation Transcript

  • iPad: Raven Zachary Small SocietyOne Year Later Web 2.0 Expo 30 March 2011 Photo by Willis Lim
  • @ravenmeRaven Zachary
  • • Find vehicles• Reserve• Unlock and honk horn• Extend reservation• Save favorites Ideas Wireframes DesignBefore a line of code is written...
  • A Show of Hands Photo by Nick Bilton
  • Photo by Jeff Christensen
  • Elisha Gray Teleautograph Photo from Oberlin College Archives
  • Photo by Tobias Hilsen
  • • “An utter disappointment and abysmal failure.” (Orange County Design Blog) • “Consumers seem genuinely baffled by why they might need it.” (Businessweek) • “Nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget geeks.” (Bloomberg) • “Insanely great it is not.” (MarketWatch) • “My god, am I underwhelmed.” (Gizmodo) Source: David Pogue, New York TimesiPad Announcement Commentary
  • Photo by Dan Nguyen
  • Photo by Randy von Liski
  • Is there room for a third category of device in the middle?
  • Yes, but...
  • Existing New ExistingMarket Market Market
  • Far better at some key things
  • Web EmailPhotosVideoMusicGamesBooks etc.
  • “Nobody needs a tablet. So why are we gobbling them up?” - Brian X. Chen,Wired.com
  • • Video• Web browsing• Email• Periodicals• eBooks• Games• Social Networking• Education• News• Music iPad Usage Survey, wired.com
  • 2010 iPad Unit Sales Estimates 15 12Millions of Units Shipped 9 6 3 0 ACTUAL Jon Gruber Various Forrester Jason Snell Andy Ihnatko Sources: Various
  • The tablet is now a proven market. This is not a fad. ...and this market isimpacting other markets.
  • Netbook Growth
  • Laptop Growth
  • Device Cannibalization
  • Tablets in Context
  • • 14.78m sold in 2010, during 9 month period (April on) • Fastest selling consumer electronic device (before the Microsoft Kinect) • More than every Tablet PC ever sold • $9.5bn in revenue for Apple • “Post-PC” Era • Part of the iOS larger ecosystemiPad Success in 2010
  • Apple iOS Units (in millions) 200 iPhone iPod touch iPad 14.79 150 60.2Millions of Units Shipped 160+ million iOS devices and growing 7.46 47.2 100 3.27 42.7 38.0 89.6 33.0 73.4 59.3 50 20.0 50.9 17.0 42.1 15.0 33.4 13.0 26.4 7.5 21.2 17.4 5.4 13.0 3.2 4.3 0 3.7 5.4 6.1 0.3 0 1.0 1.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q2 ‘07 Q3 ‘07 Q4 ‘07 Q1 ‘08 Q2 ‘08 Q3 ‘08 Q4 ‘08 Q1 ‘09 Q2 ‘09 Q3 ‘09 Q4 ‘09 Q1 ‘10 Q2 ‘10 Q3 ‘10 Q4 ‘10 Sources: iPhone & iPad - Apple iPod touch - estimate by Raven Zachary and Apple
  • Apple iOS Market by Device 9% 37% iPod touch iPhone160+ million iPadiOS devicesand growing 54% Sources: iPhone & iPad - Apple iPod touch - estimate by Raven Zachary and Apple
  • Portable Gaming Market (Total Units Sold) 200 Since 2007 (2008) 150 Since 2004 Millions of Units Shipped 100 Since 2005 50 0 iOS Sony PSP Nintendo DS Sources: Apple, Nintendo, Sony
  • App Store Apps by Platform400000 350,000300000 280,000200000100000 43,535 16,121 10,000 0 Apple Google Nokia RIM Microsoft Source: Various, Q1 2011 data
  • App Store Tablet Apps by Platform70000 65,000525003500017500 0 0 0 19 0 Apple Google Nokia RIM Microsoft Source: Various, Q1 2011 data
  • Android Marketplace Tablet Apps Electrum Drum CNN App Speedx 3D Grocery iQ Machine/SamplerVendetta Online Google Body USA Today WeatherBug Flixster AccuWeather Thumb Keyboard DrawFree TouchDown DueToday Opera Draft Manager 11 QuickOffice NY Times Conqu Source: Justin Williams, carpeaqua
  • • “Thinner. Lighter. Faster. FaceTime. Smart Covers. 10- hour battery.” • 2x CPU, 9x graphics • Video mirroring • Evolutionary, not revolutionary, but... • Retained price points ($499 to $829)iPad 2 Overview
  • • Low-res cameras • No retina display • Out of the box activation not available • 18 configurations - color, network, storage • No Flash support • No 4G network supportiPad 2 Complaints
  • • Too early to tell • Only 20 days on the market in the US • Only 6 days in 25 additional countries • 500k units first day estimate (source: Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray) • Mall of America: line 3x • 5th Ave Apple Store NYC: line 1.5x • Demand > SupplyiPad 2 Sales Data
  • “iPad 2 isn’t just the best tablet on the market, it feels like the only tablet on the market.” - Joshua Topolsky, Engadget
  • That’s because the tabletwars have not yet begun.
  • Global Tablet Market Share 10 0.3 2.1 8Millions of Units Shipped 7.3 5 0.1 0.1 4.2 3 0 Q3 ‘10 Q4 ‘10 iPad Android Other Source: Strategy Analytics
  • Global Tablet Market Share - 2010 3% 13% iPad Android Other 84% Source: Strategy Analytics
  • 99.7% of people still haven’t bought a smartphone or tablet yet. Source: RBC Capital Markets
  • The Competitors
  • • Not open source...yet. • Limited hardware partners (Motorola, Samsung, LG) • Delays will hurt tablet adoption • “To make our schedule to ship the tablet, we made some design tradeoffs.” Andy Rubin, GoogleAndroid 3.0 “Honeycomb”
  • • Android 3.0 (Honeycomb) • 10.1” display • Verizon partnership • Retail distribution • 4G upgradeable“Motorola’s Xoom is • $599 / $799iPad’s first real rival.” • Release date: March 27,-Walt Mossberg, WSJ 2011 Motorola Xoom
  • • Android 3.0 (Honeycomb) • 10.1” and 8.9” displays • Tab as family of devices • Older generation in 2010 (2m units) • Price TBD • Release date: Summer 2011Samsung Galaxy Tab
  • • webOS (Palm) • 9.7” display • Positioned for enterprise and consumer • Touchstone sharing • No cellular model • Price TBD • Release date: June 2011HP TouchPad
  • • BlackBerry Tablet OS (QNX) • 7” display • Positioned for enterprise and consumer • Runs Android apps in virtual machine • Price $499 and up • Release date: April 19, 2011RIM BlackBerry PlayBook
  • Tiny!
  • ...and everybody else.
  • ...and don’t forget these guys.
  • • Custom hardware• Excellent brand recognition• Retail distribution• Android Appstore• Payment infrastructure (Apple has 200m iTunes accounts)• Books, music, movies• Content distribution rights for Kindle• Can afford low to no marginsIs Amazon the real iPad threat?
  • Tablet Planned Purchasing100%90%80% 83%70%60%50%40%30%20%10% 8% 4% 3% 0% 3% Apple iPad Motorola Xoom RIM Playbook Samsung Galaxy Tab Other Source: ChangeWave Research, 3,000+ respondents, Feb 2011
  • • A year later, iPad has serious competitors pending• Rapid adoption of Android• Margin vs. market share challenges• Retail distribution impact is serious• iOS 5 - software leapfrog?• eReaders move into the tablet space• Apple retains aggressive component discounts 2011 Tablet Market
  • • iPad 70-80% market share (IDC)• iPad 68% market share, 29m units sold (JP Morgan)• iPad 36.5m units sold (iSupply) 2011 iPad Estimates
  • One year with the iPad. (How did I do?)
  • Oops.
  • It is a laptop replacement (for me). It is not a computer replacement.
  • Developers and designerswon’t have this option as easily.
  • • iPad • Power cable • VGA connector cable • Headphones • Business cards • Pen • From 17 lbs. to 4 lbs.I travel lightly. • Airport security is easier
  • All day with A few hours + no charge a power cable
  • The art of café bathrooms Photo by David Wright
  • WorkHome Travel
  • • Threaded conversations• Unified inbox• Still no filtering or rules• Moved from POP folders to IMAP server folders• Gmail web app for iPad is good• Not a good power user app, prefer desktop Mail
  • • Presenter mode improvements• Presenter notes support• Multitasking support• Improved importing reliability• Still not a great presentation authoring tool Keynote
  • • iTunes sync• OS updates• Some websites (Flash and JavaScript)• Some documents• Printing (partially solved)• Backup Additional iPad Limitations
  • iPhone iPad MacAlways with Always in I have one at me. my bag. the office and one at home.
  • iPhone iPad MacConnect Play Work Alert Read Write Check Consume Create
  • Creating Mobile Apps Based on Behavioral Patterns and Specialized Platforms Today, Next,This Room
  • Venturing Beyond the App Store Tomorrow, 9:05am, Keynote Room - 3rd Floor
  • Redefining Zillow In A Mobile Era:When A dot com is No Longer A .com Tomorrow, 9:50am, Keynote Room - 3rd Floor
  • Tablet SuccessTomorrow, 10am, Keynote Room - 3rd Floor
  • Cheating in MobileTomorrow, 11am, Alcove 4
  • Touching Stories: Designing Digital Magazines for the iPad Tomorrow, 1pm, This Room
  • Thank you! www.smallsociety.com Raven Zachary raven@smallsociety.com @ravenme (Twitter)