The perils of popularity (or how to create hits) Rashmi Sinha www.slideshare.net

5 observations about today’s web 3 models of popularity 10 principles for design

5 observations

1. Second generation social networks Sharing in large networks, versus own site Human crawlers Urban sociality

Sharing in large networks, versus own site

Human crawlers

Urban sociality

First generation Social Networks (Friendster, LinkedIn…) How it works People connect to each other Six degrees of separation “ Are you my friend” awkwardness 1) I am linked to -> -> to you --->You are linked to her -> -> to her…

How it works

People connect to each other

Six degrees of separation

“ Are you my friend” awkwardness

Hi I found you while I was searching my network at LinkedIn. Let's connect directly, so we can help each other with referrals. If we connect, both of our networks will grow… X

Object mediated social networks “… sociality along lines that include objects in the concept of social relations.” Katrin-Knorr Cetina Coffee Tomatoes

“… sociality along lines that include objects in the concept of social relations.”

Katrin-Knorr Cetina

Model a: Watercooler conversations (around objects e.g., Flickr, Yahoo answers) 1) I share my pics -> -> with you ---> -->You share your pics -> ---> with him How it works People share objects | watch others Connections through objects Social info streams: emergence of popular, interesting items

How it works

People share objects | watch others

Connections through objects

Social info streams: emergence of popular, interesting items

Model b: Viral sharing (passing on interesting stuff, e.g., YouTube videos) How it works Individual to individual to individual Popularity based navigation track “viral” items 1) I send video I like -> -> to you. You pass on --> --> to her, who sends on to her, who passes on…

How it works

Individual to individual to individual

Popularity based navigation track “viral” items

Model c: Tag-based social sharing (linked by concepts. e.g., del.icio.us) 1) I tag my bookmarks -> you see my tags -->You share your tags -> How it works Saving & tagging your stuff (creating bookmarks). Tags mediate social connections Formation of social/conceptual information streams. Emergence of popular, interesting items politics lebanon Global voices politics technology Global voices web JAVA CNN networks blogs science science science brain

How it works

Saving & tagging your stuff (creating bookmarks).

Tags mediate social connections

Formation of social/conceptual information streams. Emergence of popular, interesting items

Model d: Social news creation (rating news stories, e.g., digg, Newsvine) 1) I find interesting story -> you rate story -->Others rate stories How it works Finding and rating stories Popular stories rise to top 5 4

How it works

Finding and rating stories

Popular stories rise to top

Urban sociality Crowds in MMORPGS Alone together Passive presence of others Playing for the audience, but not interacting (Ducheneaut et al. CHI 2006) Social facilitation passive presence can influence Observed in cockroaches! (Zajonc, 1960)

Crowds in MMORPGS

Alone together

Passive presence of others

Playing for the audience, but not interacting

(Ducheneaut et al. CHI 2006)

Social facilitation

passive presence can influence

Observed in cockroaches!

(Zajonc, 1960)

2. Sharing is relevant to search Conversations around objects: community meets catalog

Conversations around objects: community meets catalog

Popularity is popular on sharing sites No multi-level menus! Navigation = Top100 lists, tag clouds

No multi-level menus!

Navigation = Top100 lists, tag clouds

Did Paul Ford speak too soon?

Did Paul Ford speak too soon?

The sharing imperative

is starting to influence search

Sharing compared to search shared by creator smaller reach higher quality centralized repositories relatively homogenous social activity inside indicates relevancy, popularity

shared by creator

smaller reach

higher quality

centralized repositories

relatively homogenous

social activity inside indicates relevancy, popularity

3. conformity effects in social decisions sequential decisions even 3 is enough

sequential decisions

even 3 is enough

How Influence Works The individual Conversion (private acceptance) Independence Counterconformity Information Influence Normative Influence Interpersonal Influence Compliance Social Influence

Social influence in web-based systems Cognitive Diversity Independence Decentralization Easy Aggregation

Cognitive Diversity

Independence

Decentralization

Easy Aggregation

3. rich get richer effects at network level

Duncan Watts experiments Two worlds Individual Social Influence – 8 separate worlds Theory of cumulative advantage

Two worlds

Individual

Social Influence – 8 separate worlds

Theory of cumulative advantage

4. Era of hits is not over

Long tail hypothesis democratized production > more inventory democratized distribution > more consumption lowered search costs > reach niches

democratized production > more inventory

democratized distribution > more consumption lowered search costs > reach niches

N Sync vs. lonely girl

System designer as studio boss People want a shared reality Mechanisms emerge to create trends

People want a shared reality

Mechanisms emerge to create trends

Creating trends Everything starts as equal People can connect locally Highlight alternative viewpoints System should be flexible

Everything starts as equal

People can connect locally

Highlight alternative viewpoints

System should be flexible

3 models of sociality Google Digg YouTube

Google

Digg

YouTube

Google - Blind sociality less social engagement sequential conformity reduced

less social engagement

sequential conformity reduced

No way to navigate social network

Digg as a laser beam Focused in time on tech topics young male users

Focused

in time

on tech topics

young male users

encourages mobs Quick, engaging, transparent metric Sequential decisions

Quick, engaging, transparent metric

Sequential decisions

Youtube - promiscuous popularity Many metrics Different strokes for different folks

Many metrics

Different strokes for different folks

Popularity on SlideShare Keep it on your desktop Download Remember stuff, tell someone you like their stuff Favorite & tag Share with your friends Email Share on your blog Embed Watch it View Interact with others Comment Goal Metric

Most viewed shown on front page content it surfaces

shown on front page

content it surfaces

Most favorited & tagged balance individual and social reflect back tags in social stream main social gesture

balance individual and social

reflect back tags in social stream

main social gesture

10 principles to design for sharing

Forget the ipod!

Give up control This is messy!

1. Make system personally useful memorable personal snippets (e.g., Del.icio.us & Flickr) Self-expression (e.g., Newsvine) Social status: Digg Don’t count on altruism thrive on people’s selfishness

memorable personal snippets (e.g., Del.icio.us & Flickr)

Self-expression (e.g., Newsvine)

Social status: Digg

Don’t count on altruism

thrive on people’s selfishness

2. Symbiotic relationship between personal & social Small individual contributions can be collected and mashed-up Simple, guessable URLs for everything Personal snippets > Social stream Pictures > by Events Music > by Playlists

Small individual contributions

can be collected and mashed-up

Simple, guessable URLs for everything

Personal snippets > Social stream

Pictures > by Events

Music > by Playlists

3. Porous boundary between public & private Personal desktop software vs. social websites People will share for the right returns defaults to public, can change to private user has control individual pieces & sets Privacy settings on Flickr

Personal desktop software vs. social websites

People will share for the right returns

defaults to public, can change to private

user has control individual pieces & sets

4. levels of participation Everyone does not need to create! Implicit creation (creating by consuming) Remixing—adding value to others’ content Source: Bradley Horowitz’s weblog, Elatable, Feb. 17, 2006, “Creators, Synthesizers, and Consumers”

Everyone does not need to create!

Implicit creation (creating by consuming)

Remixing—adding value to others’ content

5. Let people feel presence of others Sense that others are out there what paths are worn real time updating

Sense that others are out there

what paths are worn

real time updating

6. and yet, moments of Independence… Choreography: when alone, when part of group prevent mobs not too easy to mimic others incentives for originality allow for alternative viewpoints

Choreography: when alone, when part of group

prevent mobs

not too easy to mimic others

incentives for originality

allow for alternative viewpoints

7. Add in serendipity navigation not just about popularity access to some popular stuff (keep this fast moving) make “long tail” accessible popularity as a jump off point to other ways of exploring personalization & recommendations ad-hoc groups?

navigation not just about popularity

access to some popular stuff (keep this fast moving)

make “long tail” accessible

popularity as a jump off point to other ways of exploring

personalization & recommendations

ad-hoc groups?

8. Complete circle of sharing I share You use it ?

9. Add in a dash of experts contest on SlideShare: both judges & popular votes

contest on SlideShare: both judges & popular votes

10. Most of all, allow for play

Finally your slides at http://www.slideshare.net/tag/yrb find me at http://www.slideshare.net/rashmi

your slides at

http://www.slideshare.net/tag/yrb

find me at

http://www.slideshare.net/rashmi